Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY is moving along the signal line in the negative area and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator pushes away from oversold zone and is ready to shape a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 79.50 the pair USD/JPY will go to 79.60 and 78.80.

Macro-economic background in Japan is quiet: market awaits outcome of the two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan.

In April, interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). At the same time, the bank informed about plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Price index for corporate goods in Japan has dropped by 0.2% y/y in April against expectations of decline of 0.3%. Preliminary index of leading indicator in Japan rose to the level of 96.6 points in March versus previous level of 96.0 points (growth has been observed for three months in a row).

Statistics released earlier was unexpectedly strong: Japanese economy has grown much above forecasts in Q1, showing the rise of 4.1% y/y. Significant support to GDP growth was provided by the sector of consumer spending which had been backed up by government subsidy. Given, however that consumer spending increases only temporarily, GDP growth may be temporary as well. As soon as index of consumer spending decreases, pressure on CB will rise too. Meanwhile the head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa has stressed that local economy is still in the disastrous situation.

Current account balance in Japan amounted to +Y1.589 trillion in March against forecast of +Y1.449 trillion. At the same time, bank lending rose by 0.4% y/y in April. Therefore, the Country of the Rising Sun demonstrates surplus of current account for the second consecutive month which is a very good indication. Stabilization in European economy would have been good support for Japan; however there is no chance of it so far.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes upward in the positive area and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator went out of the overbought zone; it goes down and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9330 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9320 and 0.9300.Consolidation near achieved levels is possible.

It became known yesterday that consumer confidence index in Switzerland rose to -8 points in April against the level of -19 points in January. This is a good signal especially because economists expected that index would continue to decline.

Statistics released earlier showed that business sentiment ZEW in Switzerland fell to 4.0 points in May versus forecast of -8.0 points and level of +2.1 points in April. Most likely this data is based on assessment of external conditions.

GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero changes (+1.1% y/y). The data indicates that Swiss economy is getting adjusted to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of -0.6% to +0.6% and GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

PMI in manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

By 8.30 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2786 against yesterday's closing level of 1.2818.

Position of France caused deterioration in market sentiment today, as the country is going to lobby the idea of issuing Eurobonds despite determination of Germany in this respect.

Positive U.S. forecasts prevent from more significant sales- yesterday economists reported rising in expectations in the employment sector of the country.

Investors will be guided by external background today, as macro-economic data is not going to be too eventful.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2750-1.2810 at the trading session on Tuesday.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the range of 30.90-31.10 Roubles/USD at the trading session on Monday.

The British Pound Sterling rate traded upward at the Forex currency market on Monday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area, it goes down and is ready to break through the signal line from top to bottom, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go out of the overbought zone and started to shape a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5830 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5840 and 1.5860. 

Pressure from external background had dropped a little by Monday morning and market began to regain from previous sales.

This morning statistics showed that house price Rightmove rose by 2.0% y/y on monthly basis in May and did not change on monthly basis. The Pound did not react to statistics.  

Not too much information came from the UK in the middle of the week: The Bank of England says that in two-year term inflation is expected  to be around 1.6% on condition that volume of the incentive program will be about 325 billion pounds sterling. CPI is projected to be at 1.8% for the next three years. In the next two years GDP is expected to be about 2.7% in the UK; nevertheless, British politicians still expect decline in the growth rate of domestic economy in the short term.

Total trade balance in the UK amounted to -STG2.739 billion in March against prior value of -STG2.948 billion. The Pound went down in response to this statistics, as the Pound assessed it as not very impressive.

Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate in the country amounted to 4.9% in April; number of unemployed unexpectedly decreased by 13.7 thousand on monthly basis. At the same time the data for March has been revised: number of unemployed reduced by 5.4 thousand against primary assessment of growth by 3.6 thousand. Weekly earnings rose by 0.6% in March against growth of 1.1% in February. British Minister of Labour immediately commented this statistics noting that the data reflects right directions of economic development; however he pointed that he would like to see more robust growth in rates of full employment. 

Levels of manufacturing activity in the UK are still close to the state of stagnation in April. The index grew up only to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011. Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD goes down in the negative zone, while volumes are increasing, and is maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone, and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7590 the pair will go to 0.7600 and 0.7630.

Positions of the NZD are still close to the lows of December 2011, which increases appeal of the currency for purchase. In case if external background will remain stable for at least a few days, investors will get an excellent chance to purchase the pair at the attractive levels.

Statistics released last week showed that consumer confidence index ANZ in New Zealand fell to 113.9 points in May versus forecast of 114.0. However, producer price index at output fell by 0.1% q/q in Q1 against +0.1% on quarterly basis in Q4 2011.

Statistics released earlier showed that, business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, versus the level of 28.0 points in February. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in business confidence. According to the data released earlier activity in production sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February. According to the previous data activity index in manufacturing sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February. Manufacturing PMI declined to 48 points in April versus revised value of 53.8 points in March.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 this year against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m.

Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Business confidence NBNZ in New Zealand rose to 35.8 points in April against preliminary expectations of 33.8 points. In addition, trade balance declined to +NZ$134million against the level of +NZ$202 million in February.

The head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Mr. Bollard, noted earlier, that exchange rate of the NZD may remain high even in case of decline in commodity prices; recent weakening of the national currency is directly associated with fundamental basis. At the same time, financial system of New Zealand is very vulnerable to external influence therefore, the RBNZ is prepared to pour liquidity into economy if situation in Europe deteriorates.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY is moving along the signal line in the negative area and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator pushes away from oversold zone and is ready to shape a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 79.30 the pair USD/JPY will go to 79.40 and 78.50.

Macro-economic background in Japan is calm.

In April, interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). At the same time, the bank informed about plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Balance of current account in Japan amounted to +Y1.589 trillion in March against forecast of +Y1.449 trillion. At the same time, bank lending rose by 0.4% y/y in April. Therefore, the Country of the Rising Sun demonstrates surplus of current account for the second consecutive month which is a very good indication. Stabilization in European economy would have been good support for Japan; however there is no chance of it so far.

Price index for corporate goods in Japan has dropped by 0.2% y/y in April against expectations of decline of 0.3%. Preliminary index of leading indicator in Japan rose to the level of 96.6 points in March versus previous level of 96.0 points (growth has been observed for three months in a row).

Statistics released earlier was unexpectedly strong: Japanese economy has grown much above forecasts in Q1, showing the rise of 4.1% y/y. Significant support to GDP growth was provided by the sector of consumer spending which had been backed up by government subsidy. Given, however that consumer spending increases only temporarily, GDP growth may be temporary as well. As soon as index of consumer spending decreases, pressure on CB will rise too. Meanwhile the head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa stressed that local economy is still in the disastrous situation.

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate moves away from local lows at the beginning of the week, amid smooth external background. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes upward in the positive area and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator went out of the overbought zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9390 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9370 and 0.9360. Consolidation near achieved levels is possible.

Investors await statistic release on Swiss consumer confidence index for Q2 today; it is not excluded that the figures will be below forecast and it will impede further growth of Franc on Monday. 

Statistics released earlier showed that business sentiment ZEW in Switzerland fell to 4.0 points in May versus forecast of -8.0 points and level of +2.1 points in April. Most likely this data is based on assessment of external conditions.

Unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 3.1% in April against 3.2% earlier.

GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero changes (+1.1% y/y). The data indicates that Swiss economy has adjusted to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of -0.6% to +0.6% and GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

By 8.20 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2791 against closing level of 1.2780 on Friday morning.

Continuation of correction was caused by the outcome of the meeting of Big Eight where it was declared that Greece will continue membership in European Union. Large European countries approved this idea, although initially Germany was skeptic.

In general, investors' sentiment is stable at the beginning of the week which can encourage continuation of recovery; macro-economic background is also quiet today.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2720-1.2850 at the trading session on Monday.

Trading session for the USD started at the level of 31.35 roubles, which is 35 kopeks more than yesterday's closing level; the Euro started at the level 39.77 roubles, (+30 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 35.17 roubles today (+35 kopeks).

Therefore, pairs with Rouble continue to weaken rapidly.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will not go beyond the range of 31.30-31.50 Roubles/USD at the trading session on Friday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD goes down in the negative zone, while volumes are increasing, and is maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone, and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7550 the pair will go to 0.7540 and 0.7520.

Although the NZD has approached the levels, which are appealing for purchase, the NZD continues to weaken: total risk aversion among investors does not give the currency any chances to suspend its fall.

Statistics released this morning showed that consumer confidence index ANZ in New Zealand fell to 113.9 points in May versus forecast of 114.0. However, producer price index output fell by 0.1% q/q in Q1 against +0.1% on quarterly basis in Q4 2011.

Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Business confidence NBNZ in New Zealand rose to 35.8 points in April against preliminary expectations of 33.8 points. In addition, trade balance declined to +NZ$134million against the level of +NZ$202 million in February.

Mr. Bollard, the head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand noted last week, that exchange rate of the NZD may remain high even in case of decline in commodity prices; recent weakening of the national currency is directly associated with fundamental basis. At the same time, financial system of New Zealand is very vulnerable to external influence therefore, the RBNZ is prepared to pour liquidity into economy if situation in Europe deteriorates.

Statistics released earlier showed that, business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, versus the level of 28.0 points in February. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in business confidence. According to the data released earlier activity in production sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February. According to the previous data activity index in manufacturing sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February. Manufacturing PMI declined to 48 points in April versus revised value of 53.8 points in March.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 this year against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD descends in the negative area, while volumes are high, and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come out of the oversold zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9800 the pair will go back to 0.9790 and 0.9760.

Meanwhile, investors ignore current rate of the AUD, which is very appealing for the purchase, as external background does not encourage taking risks.

It became known today that inflationary expectations MI in Australia rose by 3.1% in May against the level of +3.3% in April. Consumer sentiment index Westpac-MI in Australia rose by 0.8% m/m in May to the level of 95.3 points, which is above forecasts.

Minutes of the last meeting of the RBA, which was made public earlier, stated that the regulator plans to stimulate economic growth and resist to external pressure by way of reducing interest rate. In addition, it is necessary to monitor levels of mortgage rates, preventing its rise and also take measures to increase consumer confidence.

The minutes stresses that activity in all sectors, excluding mining sector, is rather low largely due to expensive AUD.

We would remind that meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held at the beginning of May, astonished and alarmed market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to the level of 3.75% per annum. The head of RBA, Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation give cause for government's concern. It is logical that the lending rate has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create more flexible lending conditions. However it is obvious that Australian economic system faces serious difficulties with growth rate.

Unemployment rate in Australia fell to the lows of the year in April, reaching 4.9% against 5.2% a month earlier. Number of new jobs rose by 15 thousand last month against expectations of decline of 0.5 thousand. Report illustrated that employment increased due to the rise in the part- time jobs (+26 thousand); however number of full time jobs fell by 10.5 thousand. Such strong figures on unemployment rate have reduced chances that interest rate will be lowered in the near future.

Trade balance amounted to -A$1.6 billion in March against the forecast of -A$1.2 billion. Growing deficit is not the best indication for Australian economy. It became known earlier that retail sales in Australia rose by 0.9% m/m in March against expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, business confidence index NAB increased to 4 points in April versus the level of 3 points in March.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY goes up slightly in the negative area and is ready to shape a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 79.20 the pair USD/JPY will go to 79.10 and 78.90.

Weakness of Japanese Yen on Wednesday and Thursday suddenly turned into rapid growth of the currency last night: investors rushed into "safe" harbor amid a new surge of external negative factors.

Yesterday's statistics was unexpectedly strong: Japanese economy has grown much above forecasts in Q1, showing the rise of 4.1% y/y. Significant support to GDP growth was provided by the sector of consumer spending which had been backed up by government subsidy. Given, however that consumer spending increases only temporarily, GDP growth may be temporary as well. As soon as index of consumer spending decreases, pressure on CB will rise too. Meanwhile the head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa stressed that local economy is still in the disastrous situation.

In April, interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). At the same time, the bank informed about plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Last week brought only good news: balance of current account in Japan amounted to +Y1.589 trillion in March against forecast of +Y1.449 trillion. At the same time, bank lending rose by 0.4% y/y in April. Therefore, the Country of the Rising Sun demonstrates surplus of current account for the second consecutive month which is a very good indication. Stabilization in European economy would have been good support for Japan; however there is no chance of it so far.

Price index for corporate goods in Japan has dropped by 0.2% y/y in April against expectations of decline of 0.3%. Preliminary index of leading indicator in Japan rose to the level of 96.6 points in March versus previous level of 96.0 points (growth has been observed for three months in a row).

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes upward in the positive area and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9480 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9490 and 0.9510. Consolidation near achieved levels is possible.

Macro-economic situation in Switzerland is quiet on Friday morning; however due to external background, which is still rather negative, Franc fell down to the lows of the year without any intervention.

Statistics released earlier showed that business sentiment ZEW in Switzerland fell to 4.0 points in May versus forecast of -8.0 points and level of +2.1 points in April. Most likely this data is based on assessment of external conditions.

New Governor of SNB Mr. Jordon said earlier that policy of targeted exchange rate in the pair EUR/Franc proved to be efficient.

Statistics released last week was not very positive: PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

It became known yesterday that unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 3.1% in April against 3.2% earlier.

GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero changes (+1.1% y/y). The data indicates that Swiss economy has adjusted to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of -0.6% to +0.6% and GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area, it goes down, volumes are decreasing, and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5740 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5730 and 1.5700. Consolidation near current levels is possible.

Pressure on the British Pound from negative external background is exerted in full measure on Friday.

Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate in the country amounted to 4.9% in April; number of unemployed unexpectedly decreased by 13.7 thousand on monthly basis. At the same time the data for March has been revised: number of unemployed reduced by 5.4 thousand against primary assessment of growth by 3.6 thousand. Weekly earnings rose by 0.6% in March against growth of 1.1% in February. British Minister of Labour immediately commented this statistics noting that the data reflects right directions of economic development; however he pointed that he would like to see more robust growth in rates of full employment.

Levels of manufacturing activity in the UK are coming up to the state of stagnation in April. The index grew up to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011. Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain. Sales at the similar trading floors BRC in the UK fell by 3.3% y/y in April against the forecast of growth of 0.6%. The Pound has almost not reacted to this statistics, as it is completely focused on external background and negative sentiment of investors who are moving away from risks. House price index RICS in the UK fell to -19 points in April against the level of -11 points in March. This is a negative signal as the decline is rather significant.

Volume of industrial production fell by 0.3% m/m (-2.6% y/y) in March, which agreed with the forecasts; however market was not too happy. Not too much information came from the UK in the middle of the week: The Bank of England says that in two-year term inflation is expected to be around 1.6% on condition that volume of the incentive program will be about 325 billion pounds sterling. CPI is projected to be at 1.8% for the next three years.

In the next two years GDP is expected to be about 2.7% in the UK; nevertheless, British politicians still expect decline in the growth rate of domestic economy in the short term.

Statistics released earlier showed that total trade balance in the UK amounted to -STG2.739 billion in March against prior value of -STG2.948 billion. The Pound went down in response to this statistics, as the Pound assessed it as not very impressive.

By 7.55 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2682 against yesterday's closing level of 1.2697.

Market continues to move away from risks and this process has intensified when it became known that rating agency Moody's downgraded ratings of 16 Spanish banks. It was quite an expected action; however investors were frustrated.

In addition, agency Fitch has revised downward rating of Greece, to the level of CCC from B-.

Therefore, market has to deal with this negative information today.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2650-1.2750 at the trading session on Friday.

Trading session for the USD started at the level of 30.898 roubles, which is 13 kopeks more than yesterday's closing level; the Euro started at the level 39385 roubles, (-4 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 34.72 roubles today (+5 kopeks).

Therefore, quotations in pairs with Rouble react to the news which is made known to the market. In general, investors are shifting gradually from risk aversion into a wait and see position.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 30.80-30.95 Roubles/USD at the trading session on Thursday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD goes down in the negative zone, while volumes are increasing, and is maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone, aiming to go out beyond this zone and is ready to shape a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7680 the pair will go to 0.7690 and 0.7720.

After reaching lows of the year, the NZD has approached to the levels which are appealing for purchases.

Statistics released this morning showed that consumer confidence index ANZ in New Zealand fell to 113.9 points in May versus forecast of 114.0. However, producer price index output fell by 0.1% q/q in Q1 against +0.1% on quarterly basis in Q4 2011.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 this year against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m.

Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Business confidence NBNZ in New Zealand rose to 35.8 points in April against preliminary expectations of 33.8 points. In addition, trade balance declined to +NZ$134million against the level of +NZ$202 million in February.

Mr. Bollard, the head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand noted last week, that exchange rate of the NZD may remain high even in case of decline in commodity prices; recent weakening of the national currency is directly associated with fundamental basis. At the same time, financial system of New Zealand is very vulnerable to external influence therefore, the RBNZ is prepared to pour liquidity into economy if situation in Europe deteriorates.

Statistics released earlier showed that, business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, versus the level of 28.0 points in February. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in business confidence. According to the data released earlier activity in production sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February. According to the previous data activity index in manufacturing sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February. Manufacturing PMI declined to 48 points in April versus revised value of 53.8 points in March.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD descends in the negative area, while volumes are high, and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come out of the oversold zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9970 the pair will go back to 0.9980 and 1.0010.

It became known today that inflationary expectations MI in Australia rose by 3.1% in May against the level of +3.3% in April. The AUD ignores this statistics, focusing on the external background which looks stable this morning, giving chances for correctional rebound.

Consumer sentiment index Westpac-MI in Australia rose by 0.8% m/m in May to the level of 95.3 points, which is above forecasts.

In other respects, macro-economic background is still alarming. Trade balance amounted to –A$1.6 billion in March against the forecast of –A$1.2 billion. Growing deficit is not the best indication for Australian economy. It became known earlier that retail sales in Australia rose by 0.9% m/m in March against expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, business confidence index NAB increased to 4 points in April versus the level of 3 points in March.

Minutes of the last meeting of the RBA, which was made public earlier, stated that the regulator plans to stimulate economic growth and resist to external pressure by way of reducing interest rate. In addition, it is necessary to monitor levels of mortgage rates, preventing its rise and also take measures to increase consumer confidence.

The minutes stresses that activity in all sectors, excluding mining sector, is rather low largely due to expensive AUD.

We would remind that meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held at the beginning of May, astonished and alarmed market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to the level of 3.75% per annum. The head of RBA, Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation give cause for government’s concern. It is logical that the lending rate has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create more flexible lending conditions. However it is obvious that Australian economic system faces serious difficulties with growth rate.

Unemployment rate in Australia fell to the lows of the year in April, reaching 4.9% against 5.2% a month earlier. Number of new jobs rose by 15 thousand last month against expectations of decline of 0.5 thousand. Report illustrated that employment increased due to the rise in the part- time jobs (+26 thousand); however number of full time jobs fell by 10.5 thousand. Such strong figures on unemployment rate have reduced chances that interest rate will be lowered in the near future.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.35 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.50 and 80.70.

So, the pair has moved upward breaking through oversold range of 79.42-80.39.

Statistics, released this morning, was unexpectedly strong: Japanese economy rose much above forecasts in Q1, showing growth of 4.1% y/y.

Significant support to GDP growth was provided by the sector of consumer spending which had been backed up by government subsidy.

Given, however that consumer spending increases only temporarily, GDP growth may be temporary as well. As soon as index of consumer spending decreases, pressure on CB will rise too.

Meanwhile the head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa stressed that local economy is still in the disastrous situation.

In April, interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). At the same time, the bank informed about plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Price index for corporate goods in Japan has dropped by 0.2% y/y in April against expectations of decline of 0.3%. Preliminary index of leading indicator in Japan rose to the level of 96.6 points in March versus previous level of 96.0 points (growth has been observed for three months in a row).

Last week brought only good news: balance of current account in Japan amounted to +Y1.589 trillion in March against forecast of +Y1.449 trillion. At the same time, bank lending rose by 0.4% y/y in April. Therefore, the Country of the Rising Sun demonstrates surplus of current account for the second consecutive month which is a very good indication. Stabilization in European economy would have been good support for Japan; however there is no chance of it so far.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to top and is going up in the positive area, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9430 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9440 and 0.9450. Consolidation near achieved levels is possible.

Statistics released earlier showed that business sentiment ZEW in Switzerland fell to 4.0 points in May versus forecast of -8.0 points and level of +2.1 points in April. Most likely this data is based on assessment of external conditions.

The currency continues to reach new lows - now Franc has come to the "bottom" of mid-January of this year. The only difference is that the currency does this under influence of the external background, so that monetary authorities did not have to infuse cash in order to stabilize situation in the pairs with Franc.

New head of SNB Mr. Jordon said earlier that so far policy of targeted exchange rate in the pair EUR/Franc has been efficient.

GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero changes (+1.1% y/y). The data indicates that Swiss economy has adjusted to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of -0.6% to +0.6% and GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Statistics released last week was not very positive: PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

It became known yesterday that unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 3.1% in April against 3.2% earlier.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area, it goes down, volumes are decreasing as well; and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5910 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5890 and 1.5880. Consolidation near current levels is possible.

The British Pound is still under pressure from negative.

Yesterday's statistics showed that unemployment rate in the country amounted to 4.9% in April; number of unemployed unexpectedly decreased by 13.7 thousand on monthly basis. At the same time the data for March has been revised: number of unemployed reduced by 5.4 thousand against primary assessment of growth by 3.6 thousand. Weekly earnings rose by 0.6% in March against growth of 1.1% in February.

British Minister of Labour immediately commented this statistics noting that the data reflects right directions of economic development; however he pointed that he would like to see more robust growth in rates of full employment.

Not too much information came from the UK in the middle of the week: The Bank of England says that in two-year term inflation is expected to be around 1.6% on condition that volume of the incentive program will be about 325 billion pounds sterling. CPI is projected to be at 1.8% for the next three years.

In the next two years GDP is expected to be about 2.7% in the UK; nevertheless, British politicians still expect decline in the growth rate of domestic economy in the short term.

Statistics released earlier showed that total trade balance in the UK amounted to -STG2.739 billion in March against prior value of -STG2.948 billion. The Pound went down in response to this statistics, as the Pound assessed it as not too important.

Levels of manufacturing activity in the UK are coming up to the state of stagnation in April. The index grew up to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011. Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain. Sales at the similar trading floors BRC in the UK fell by 3.3% y/y in April against the forecast of growth of 0.6%. The Pound has almost not reacted to this statistics, as it is completely focused on external background and negative sentiment of investors who are moving away from risks. House price index RICS in the UK fell to -19 points in April against the level of -11 points in March. This is a negative signal as the decline is rather significant.

Volume of industrial production fell by 0.3% m/m (-2.6% y/y) in March, which agreed with the forecasts; however market was not too happy.

By 8.25 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2742 against yesterday' closing level of 1.2715.

Yesterday the pair went down to the local lows at 1.2680 after which market calmed down and allowed Euro to start technical correction.

Minutes of the meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve were in general neutral: only a few members of the monetary committee wish to see a new round of quantitative easing, others are against it. According to estimates of the monetary authorities, economy of the country still raises concern and FR holds a "wait and see" attitude.

Greece is going to suspend privatization program until July at least- treasury will be deprived of those minor receipts now.

Market will wait for weekly report from the U.S. labour market.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2650-1.2790 at the trading session on Thursday.

Trading session for the USD started at the level of 30.78 roubles, which is 20 kopeks more than yesterday's closing level; the Euro started at the level 39.15 roubles, (+1 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 34.56 roubles today (+12 kopeks).

Therefore, negative external background is still unfavourable for positions of the Rouble.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 30.65-30.85 Roubles/USD at the trading session on Wednesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD goes down in the negative zone, while volumes are increasing, and is maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7640 the pair will go to 0.7620 and 0.7600.

New Zealand Dollar is still near the lows of the year, despite attractive rates, as external background prevents its recovery.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 this year against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m.

Statistics released earlier showed that, business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, versus the level of 28.0 points in February. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in business confidence. According to the data released earlier activity in production sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February. According to the previous data activity index in manufacturing sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February. Manufacturing PMI declined to 48 points in April versus revised value of 53.8 points in March.

Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Business confidence NBNZ in New Zealand rose to 35.8 points in April against preliminary expectations of 33.8 points. In addition, trade balance declined to +NZ$134million against the level of +NZ$202 million in February.

Mr. Bollard, the head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand noted last week, that exchange rate of the NZD may remain high even in case of decline in commodity prices; recent weakening of the national currency is directly associated with fundamental basis. At the same time, financial system of New Zealand is very vulnerable to external influence therefore, the RBNZ is prepared to pour liquidity into economy if situation in Europe deteriorates.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD descends in the negative area, while volumes are high, and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9870 the pair will go back to 0.9860 and 0.9850.

Statistics released this morning showed that consumer sentiment index Westpac-MI in Australia rose by 0.8% m/m, to the level of 95.3 points. Although these figures are above forecast, statistics was not able to support the AUD which is significantly affected by external background, as it remains obscure.

The data released earlier showed that mortgage lending in Australia rose by 0.3% m/m in March against expectation of -2.3%. Unemployment rate in Australia fell to the lows of the year in April, reaching 4.9% against 5.2% a month earlier. Number of new jobs rose by 15 thousand last month against expectations of decline of 0.5 thousand. Report illustrated that employment increased due to the rise in the part- time jobs (+26 thousand); however number of full time jobs fell by 10.5 thousand. Such strong figures on unemployment rate have reduced chances that interest rate will be lowered in the near future.

In other respects, macro-economic background is still alarming. Trade balance amounted to -A$1.6 billion in March against the forecast of -A$1.2 billion. Growing deficit is not the best indication for Australian economy. It became known earlier that retail sales in Australia rose by 0.9% m/m in March against expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, business confidence index NAB increased to 4 points in April versus the level of 3 points in March.

Minutes of the last meeting of the RBA, which was made public yesterday, stated that the regulator plans to stimulate economic growth and resist to external pressure by way of reducing interest rate. In addition, it is necessary to monitor levels of mortgage rates, preventing its rise and also take measures to increase consumer confidence.

The minutes stresses that activity in all sectors excluding mining is rather low, largely due to expensive AUD.

We would remind that meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held at the beginning of May, astonished and alarmed market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to the level of 3.75% per annum. The head of RBA, Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation give cause for government's concern. It is logical that the lending rate has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create more flexible lending conditions. However it is obvious that Australian economic system faces serious difficulties in development. According to RBA projections, inflation will become lower in the next two years; however it will remain in the range of 2-3%. Note, that CPI rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1 against expectation of growth of 0.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y).

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.40 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.50 and 80.70.

So, the pair has moved upward breaking through oversold range of 79.42-80.39.

Macro-economic background remains stable in Japan in the middle of the week, while players are focused on the developments outside the country of the Rising Sun.

It became known this week that price index for corporate goods in Japan dropped by 0.2% y/y in April against expectation of decline of 0.3%. Preliminary index of leading indicator in Japan rose to the level of 96.6 points in March versus previous level of 96.0 points (growth has been observed for three months in a row).

Interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). At the same time, the bank informed about plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Last week brought only good news: balance of current account in Japan amounted to +Y1.589 trillion in March against forecast of +Y1.449 trillion. At the same time, bank lending rose by 0.4% y/y in April. Therefore, the Country of the Rising Sun demonstrates surplus of current account for the second consecutive month which is a very good indication. Stabilization in European economy would have been good support for Japan; however there is no chance of it so far.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.5% in March; preliminary retail sales fell by 1.2% m/m (+10.3% y/y) last month against forecast of decline of 0.5% m/m. In addition, preliminary industrial production rose by 1.0% m/m (+13.9% y/y) in March against expectations of growth of 2.3% m/m.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimura, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician has stressed earlier that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, while the major risk factor is still the same- that is overall slowdown in the world economy.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to top and is going up in the positive area, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9460 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9470 and 0.9500. Consolidation near achieved levels is possible.

The currency continues to reach new lows - now Franc has come to the "bottom" of mid-January of this year. The only difference is that the currency does this under influence of the external background, so that monetary authorities did not have to infuse cash in order to stabilize situation in the pairs with Franc.

Statistics released last week was not very positive: PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. It also became known that unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 3.1% in April against 3.2% earlier.

Mr. Jordan became the governor of Swiss National Bank in April; he has been performing the duties since Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to implement existing monetary policy. He is going to protect current level of 1.20 for the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc remains overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain peg of Franc with the Euro. Jordan said a week earlier that the regulator was not going to turn to negative interest rate and would make all efforts to maintain the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/Franc.

GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero changes (+1.1% y/y). The data indicates that Swiss economy has adjusted to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of -0.6% to +0.6% and GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area, it goes down, volumes are decreasing as well; and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5940 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5920 and 1.5900.

Sales of the Pound increased in the middle of the week due to negative influence of the external background.

Statistics released yesterday showed that total trade balance in the UK amounted to -STG2.739 billion in March against prior value of -STG2.948 billion. The Pound went down in response to this statistics, as it was too impressive.

Levels of manufacturing activity in the UK are coming up to the state of stagnation in April. The index grew up to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011. Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain. Sales at the similar trading floors BRC in the UK fell by 3.3% y/y in April against the forecast of growth of 0.6%. The Pound has almost not reacted to this statistics, as it is completely focused on external background and negative sentiment of investors who are moving away from risks. House price index RICS in the UK fell to -19 points in April against the level of -11 points in March. This is a negative signal as the decline is rather significant.

Volume of industrial production fell by 0.3% m/m (-2.6% y/y) in March, which agreed with the forecasts; however market was not too happy.

Meeting of the Bank of England Last week was in general uneventful; contrary to expectations interest rate was kept at the level of 0.50% per annum, current size of the assets purchase program was left unchanged. There were some assumptions in the market in advance of the meeting that the regulator can expand QE program in order to mitigate ongoing weakness of British economy, nevertheless the Bank of England has taken a clear "wait-and-see" attitude. We would remind that last time the rate was changed in March 2009.

By 8.50 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2714 against yesterday's closing level of 1.2728.

Investors continue to react negatively to talks about Greece- the country demonstrates political instability and is ready to discontinue membership in Eurozone once again.

New parliament elections are going to take place in the country; preliminary they are scheduled for 10 or 17 June.

Meanwhile, new flow of news is related with developments in Athens.

Most likely the pair ER/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2675-1.2780 at the trading session on Wednesday.

Trading session for the USD started at the level of 30.36 roubles, which is 4 kopeks less than yesterday's closing level; the Euro started at the level 39 roubles, (-6 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 34.25 roubles today (-5 kopeks).

Thus, slight rise in the Russian Rouble is associated with some stabilization of the external background; although news flow is still alarming.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 30.30-30.45 Roubles/USD at the trading session on Tuesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD goes down in the negative zone, while volumes are increasing, and is maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7775 the pair will go to 0.7760 and 0.7950. Consolidation near current levels is possible.

New Zealand Dollar is still near the lows of the year, despite attractive rates, as external background prevents its recovery.

Statistics released earlier showed that, business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, versus the level of 28.0 points in February. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in business confidence. According to the data released earlier activity in production sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February. According to the previous data activity index in manufacturing sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February. Manufacturing PMI declined to 48 points in April versus revised value of 53.8 points in March.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 this year against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m.

Mr. Bollard, the head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand noted last week, that exchange rate of the NZD may remain high even in case of decline in commodity prices; recent weakening of the national currency is directly associated with fundamental basis. At the same time, financial system of New Zealand is very vulnerable to external influence therefore, the RBNZ is prepared to pour liquidity into economy if situation in Europe deteriorates.

Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Business confidence NBNZ in New Zealand rose to 35.8 points in April against preliminary expectations of 33.8 points. In addition, trade balance declined to +NZ$134million against the level of +NZ$202 million in February.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD descends in the negative area, while volumes are high, and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9990 the pair will go back to 0.9980 and 0.9970. Stabilization at the parity level is possible.

Minutes of the last meeting of the RBA, which was made public today, stated that the regulator plans to stimulate economic growth and resist to external pressure by way of reducing interest rate. In addition, it is necessary to monitor levels of mortgage rates, preventing its rise and also take measures to increase consumer confidence.

The minutes stresses that activity in all sectors excluding mining is rather low, largely due to expensive AUD.

We would remind that meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held at the beginning of May, astonished and alarmed market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to the level of 3.75% per annum. The head of RBA, Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation give cause for government's concern. It is logical that the lending rate has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create more flexible lending conditions. However it is obvious that Australian economic system faces serious difficulties in development. According to RBA projections, inflation will become lower in the next two years; however it will remain in the range of 2-3%. Note, that CPI rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1 against expectation of growth of 0.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y).

The data released earlier showed that mortgage lending in Australia rose by 0.3% m/m in March against expectation of -2.3%. Unemployment rate in Australia fell to the lows of the year in April, reaching 4.9% against 5.2% a month earlier. Number of new jobs rose by 15 thousand last month against expectations of decline of 0.5 thousand. Report illustrated that employment increased due to the rise in the part- time jobs (+26 thousand); however number of full time jobs fell by 10.5 thousand. Such strong figures on unemployment rate have reduced chances that interest rate will be lowered in the near future.

In other respects, macro-economic background is still alarming. Trade balance amounted to -A$1.6 billion in March against the forecast of -A$1.2 billion. Growing deficit is not the best indication for Australian economy. It became known earlier that retail sales in Australia rose by 0.9% m/m in March against expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, business confidence index NAB increased to 4 points in April versus the level of 3 points in March.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.00 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.05 and 80.25. The pair might go to 79.50.

So, the Yen is in static condition, while the pair got stuck in the range of 79.42-80.39.

It became known yesterday that price index for corporate goods in Japan dropped by 0.2% y/y in April against expectation of decline of 0.3%. The Yen has ignored this statistics, as investors are focused on external developments.

Preliminary index of leading indicator in Japan rose to the level of 96.6 points in March versus previous level of 96.0 points (growth has been observed for three months in a row).

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimura, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician has stressed earlier that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, while the major risk factor is still the same- that is overall slowdown in the world economy.

Interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). At the same time, the bank informed about plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Statistics released last week was all good news: balance of current account in Japan amounted to +Y1.589 trillion in March against forecast of +Y1.449 trillion. At the same time, bank lending rose by 0.4% y/y in April. Therefore, the Country of the Rising Sun demonstrates surplus of current account for the second consecutive month which is a very good indication. Stabilization in European economy would have been good support for Japan; however there is no chance of it so far.
Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.5% in March; preliminary retail sales fell by 1.2% m/m (+10.3% y/y) last month against forecast of decline of 0.5% m/m. In addition, preliminary industrial production rose by 1.0% m/m (+13.9% y/y) in March against expectations of growth of 2.3% m/m.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to top and is going up in the positive area, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9340 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9330 and 0.9310. Consolidation near achieved levels is possible.

Swiss Franc has reached four-month lows yesterday, approaching to the lows of January, thus triggering today's rebound.

GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero changes (+1.1% y/y). The data indicates that Swiss economy has adjusted to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of -0.6% to +0.6% and GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Statistics released last week was not very positive: PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. It also became known that unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 3.1% in April against 3.2% earlier.

Mr. Jordan became the governor of Swiss National Bank in April; he has been performing the duties since Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to implement existing monetary policy. He is going to protect current level of 1.20 for the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc remains overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain peg of Franc with the Euro. Jordan said a week earlier that the regulator was not going to turn to negative interest rate and would make all efforts to maintain the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/Franc.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area, it goes down, volumes are decreasing as well; and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6110 the pair GBP/USD will go to1.6120 and 1.6130. Consolidation near current levels is possible.

As long as external background remains gloomy, the GBP has low chances for recovery.

Investors will watch for publication of data on trade balance for March today.

Statistics released last week was noteworthy: volume of industrial production fell by 0.3% m/m (-2.6% y/y) in March. It agreed with the forecasts; however market was not too happy.

Levels of manufacturing activity in the UK are coming up to the state of stagnation in April. The index grew up to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011. Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain. Sales at the similar trading floors BRC in the UK fell by 3.3% y/y in April against the forecast of growth of 0.6%. The Pound has almost not reacted to this statistics, as it is completely focused on external background and negative sentiment of investors who are moving away from risks. House price index RICS in the UK fell to -19 points in April against the level of -11 points in March. This is a negative signal as the decline is rather significant.

Meeting of the Bank of England Last week was in general uneventful; contrary to expectations interest rate was kept at the level of 0.50% per annum, current size of the assets purchase program was left unchanged. There were some assumptions in the market in advance of the meeting that the regulator can expand QE program in order to mitigate ongoing weakness of British economy, nevertheless the Bank of England has taken a clear "wait-and-see" attitude. We would remind that last time the rate was changed in March 2009.

British CBI reported downgrade of economic growth outlook to 0.6% for this year against prior estimate of 0.9% in February. Forecast for 2013 was remained unchanged at +2.0%. CBI believes that inflationary levels will remain above expectations due to increasing energy prices.

By 8.20 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2814 against yesterday's closing level of 1.2821.

Greece will continue talks with major political parties today; however hopes for government formation are diminishing: it is not excluded that new national elections will be held in the country.

We are speaking only about formation of the technical government now, where neopolitical people can be presented; this idea is supported by President of Greece Mr. Populyas.

Attention today will be drawn to statistics today: preliminary data on Eurozone's GDP for Q1 will become known; American statistics on retail sales will be released this afternoon, as well as the data on the U.S. industrial stocks in March

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2770-1.2860 at the trading session on Tuesday.

Trading session for the USD started at the level of 30.21 roubles, which is 7 kopeks higher than closing level on Saturday; the Euro started at the level 39.02 roubles, (-2 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 34.21 roubles today (+2 kopeks).

Therefore, weakening in the position of EUR/USD at Forex as well as ongoing sales in the oil sector is not in favour of the Rouble.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 30.18-30.45 Roubles/USD at the trading session on Monday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD goes down in the negative area, and maintains a sell signal, while volumes are increasing. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7800 the pair will go to 0.7790 and 0.79700. Consolidation close to current levels is possible.

The currency is strongly affected by external environment that encourage investors to go away from risks although current levels of NZD is extremely favourable for buying.

Statistics, released last Thursday, showed that manufacturing PMI in New Zealand fell to 48 points in April against revised value of 53.8 points in March.

Statistics released earlier showed that, business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, versus the level of 28.0 points in February. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in business confidence. According to the data released earlier activity in production sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 this year against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Business confidence NBNZ in New Zealand rose to 35.8 points in April against preliminary expectations of 33.8 points. In addition, trade balance declined to +NZ$134million against the level of +NZ$202 million in February.

Mr. Bollard, the head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand noted last week, that exchange rate of the NZD may remain high even in case of decline in commodity prices; recent weakening of the national currency is directly associated with fundamental basis. At the same time, financial system of New Zealand is very vulnerable to external influence therefore, the RBNZ is prepared to pour liquidity into economy if situation in Europe deteriorates.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD descends in the negative area and is giving a sell signal, while volumes are high. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1. 0000 the pair will go back to 0.9990 and 0.9970.

The data released this morning showed that mortgage lending in Australia rose by 0.3% m/m in March against expectation of -2.3%. This statistic is not bad; however the AUD is focused on negative external events which encourage players to move away from risks.

Statistics released last week showed that unemployment rate in Australia fell to the lows of the year in April, reaching 4.9% against 5.2% a month earlier. Number of new jobs rose by 15 thousand last month against expectations of decline of 0.5 thousand. Report illustrated that employment increased due to the rise in the part- time jobs (+26 thousand); however number of full time jobs fell by 10.5 thousand. Such strong figures on unemployment rate have reduced chances that interest rate will be lowered in the near future.

In other respects, macro-economic background is still alarming. Trade balance amounted to -A$1.6 billion in March against the forecast of -A$1.2 billion. Growing deficit is not the best indication for Australian economy. It became known earlier that retail sales in Australia rose by 0.9% m/m in March against expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, business confidence index NAB increased to 4 points in April versus the level of 3 points in March.

RBA released a quarterly monetary policy report at the end of last week, which disappointed investors again: the regulator has lowered projections for economic growth and inflation, as weak employment sector and uncertainty in the housing sector impedes progress in other sectors.

Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held at the beginning of May, astonished and alarmed market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to the level of 3.75% per annum. The head of RBA, Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation give cause for government's concern. It is logical that the lending rate has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create more flexible lending conditions. However it is obvious that Australian economic system faces serious difficulties in development. According to RBA projections, inflation will become lower in the next two years; however it will remain in the range of 2-3%. Note, that CPI rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1 against expectation of growth of 0.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y).

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to top and is going up in the positive area, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9320 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9330 and 0.9350. Consolidation near achieved levels is possible.

Franc has been retreating from high price values for the third consecutive week- it is a good signal for local economy.

Investors today will watch for publication of the data on producer price index in imports for April.

Statistics released last week was not very positive: PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. It also became known that unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 3.1% in April against 3.2% earlier.

Mr. Jordan became the governor of Swiss National Bank in April; he has been performing the duties since Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to implement existing monetary policy. He is going to protect current level of 1.20 for the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc remains overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain peg of Franc with the Euro. Jordan said a week earlier that the regulator was not going to turn to negative interest rate and would make all efforts to maintain the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/Franc.

GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero changes (+1.1% y/y). The data indicates that Swiss economy has adjusted to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of -0.6% to +0.6% and GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area, it goes down, at the same time volumes are decreasing as well, and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6060 the pair GBP/USD will go to1.6050 and 1.6030.

External background caused sales of the Pound, as investors are moving away from risks due to fears triggered by Greek problems.

Statistics released last week was noteworthy: volume of industrial production fell by 0.3% m/m (-2.6% y/y) in March. It agreed with the forecasts; however market was not too happy.

Sales at the similar trading floors BRC in the UK fell by 3.3% y/y in April against the forecast of growth of 0.6%. The Pound has almost not reacted to this statistics, as it is completely focused on external background and negative sentiment of investors who are moving away from risks. House price index RICS in the UK fell to -19 points in April against the level of -11 points in March. This is a negative signal as the decline is rather significant.

Levels of manufacturing activity in the UK are coming up to the state of stagnation in April. The index grew up to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011. Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain.

British CBI reported downgrade of economic growth outlook to 0.6% for this year against prior estimate of 0.9% in February. Forecast for 2013 was remained unchanged at +2.0%. CBI believes that inflationary levels will remain above expectations due to increasing energy prices.

Meeting of the Bank of England Last week was in general uneventful; contrary to expectations interest rate was kept at the level of 0.50% per annum, current size of the assets purchase program was left unchanged. There were some assumptions in the market in advance of the meeting that the regulator can expand QE program in order to mitigate ongoing weakness of British economy, nevertheless the Bank of England has taken a clear "wait-and-see" attitude. We would remind that last time the rate was changed in March 2009.

By 8.25 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2889 against closing session level of 1.2916 on Friday.

Market has to deal with news that starting from 18 May the Bank of China will reduce reserve requirements for commercial banks by 50 basis points to 20.0%; market also declines in anticipation of a decision on forming government in Greece.

At the same time, this afternoon, players will wait for publication on industrial output in Eurozone for March, which is projected to decline
In general, external background is negative for the Euro.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2860-1.2970 at the trading session on Monday.

Trading session for the USD started at the level of 30.17 roubles, (+9 kopeks); the Euro started at the level 39.01 roubles, almost unchanged.

Dual currency basket value amounted to 34.17 roubles today (+4 kopeks).

Therefore, external background, which is not too optimistic, prevents stabilization of the Rouble.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 30.15-30.35 Roubles/USD at the trading session on Friday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD goes down in the negative area, and maintains a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7840 the pair will go to 0.7830 and 0.7810. Consolidation close to current levels is possible.

Macro-economic background in New Zealand is stable by today's trading session.

Mr. Bollard, the head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand noted this week, that exchange rate of the NZD may remain high even in case of decline in commodity prices; recent weakening of the national currency is directly associated with fundamental basis. At the same time, financial system of New Zealand is very vulnerable to external influence therefore, the RBNZ is prepared to pour liquidity into economy if situation in Europe deteriorates.

Statistics released on Thursday showed that manufacturing PMI in New Zealand fell to 48 points in Aprol against revised level of 53.8 points in March.

Statistics released earlier showed that, business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, versus the level of 28.0 points in February. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in business confidence. According to the data released earlier activity in production sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February.

At the meeting in April, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% per annum which agreed with market expectations. The head of RBNZ Mr. Bollard said in the comments that inflationary pressure is limited and CPI is not going to exceed specified framework. He believes that New Zealand economy demonstrates recovery, and at the same time activity in the real estate sector is increasing.

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 2011 against forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP had almost stopped its growth, however started to revive later.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 this year against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Business confidence NBNZ in New Zealand rose to 35.8 points in April against preliminary expectations of 33.8 points. In addition, trade balance declined to +NZ$134million against the level of +NZ$202 million in February.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD descends in the negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1. 0060 the pair will go back to 1.0050 and 1.0030.

Statistics released this week showed that unemployment rate in Australia fell to the lows of the year in April, reaching 4.9% against 5.2% a month earlier. Number of new jobs rose by 15 thousand last month against expectations of decline of 0.5 thousand. Report illustrated that employment increased due to the rise in the part- time jobs (+26 thousand); however number of full time jobs fell by 10.5 thousand. Such indicator on unemployment rate reduces chances that interest rate will be lowered in the near future.

Speaking about rate we can say that: meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held at the beginning of May, astonished and alarmed market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to the level of 3.75% per annum. The head of RBA, Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation give cause for government's concern. It is logical that the lending rate has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create more flexible lending conditions. However it is obvious that Australian economic system faces serious difficulties in development. According to RBA projections, inflation will become lower in the next two years; however it will remain in the range of 2-3%. Note, that CPI rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1 against expectation of growth of 0.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y).

Other sections of macro-economic background are still alarming: trade balance amounted to -A$1.6 billion in March against the forecast of -A$1.2 billion. Growing deficit is not the best indication for Australian economy. It became known earlier that retail sales in Australia rose by 0.9% m/m in March against expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, business confidence index NAB increased to 4 points in April versus the level of 3 points in March.

RBA released a quarterly monetary policy report at the end of last week, which disappointed investors again: the regulator has lowered projections for economic growth and inflation, as weak employment sector and uncertainty in the housing sector impedes progress in other sectors.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to top and is going up in the positive area, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9295 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9300 and 0.9320.

Franc continues to retreat which can only please local monetary authorities: the currency has not weakened so significantly since this March.
GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero changes (+1.1% y/y). The data indicates that Swiss economy has adjusted to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of -0.6% to +0.6% and GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Statistics released last week was not very positive: PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. It also became known that unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 3.1% in April against 3.2% earlier.

Mr. Jordan became the governor of Swiss National Bank in April; he has been performing the duties since Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to implement existing monetary policy. He is going to protect current level of 1.20 for the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc remains overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain peg of Franc with the Euro. Jordan said a week earlier that the regulator was not going to turn to negative interest rate and would make all efforts to maintain the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/Franc.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area, it goes down, at the same time, volumes are decreasing as well, and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is moving along the signal line and is not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6110 the pair GBP/USD will go to1.6100 and 1.6090.

Yesterday's meeting of the Bank of England was in general uneventful; contrary to expectations interest rate was kept at the level of 0.50% per annum, current size of the assets purchase program was left unchanged. There were some assumptions in the market in advance of the meeting that the regulator can expand QE program in order to mitigate ongoing weakness of British economy, nevertheless the Bank of England has taken a clear "wait-and-see" attitude.

We would remind that last time the rate was changed in March 2009.

Statistics released on Thursday is noteworthy: volume of industrial output in the UK fell by 0.3% m/m (-2.6% y/y) in March. In general it agreed with forecasts; however the market was not too happy.

Sales at the similar trading floors BRC in the UK fell by 3.3% y/y in April against the forecast of growth of 0.6%. The Pound has almost not reacted to this statistics, as it is completely focused on external background and negative sentiment of investors who are moving away from risks. House price index RICS in the UK fell to -19 points in April against the level of -11 points in March. This is a negative signal as the decline is rather significant.

British CBI reported downgrade of economic growth outlook to 0.6% for this year against prior estimate of 0.9% in February. Forecast for 2013 was remained unchanged at +2.0%.CBI believes that inflationary levels will remain above expectations due to increasing energy prices.

Levels of manufacturing activity in the UK are coming up to the state of stagnation in April. The index grew up to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011. Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain.

By 8.00 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2922 against yesterday's closing level of 1.2935.

The major pair tried to carry out technical correction last night; however gloomy external background prevented from doing it properly.

There are more motives for sale today: Chinese statistics showed slowdown of inflation in the country in April which is an indication of inhibition of the system

Political risks in Greece are still preserved.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2890-1.2990 at the trading session on Friday.

Trading session for the USD started at the level of 30.22 roubles, which is 42 kopeks more that closing level on 5 May; the Euro started movement at the level 39.1 roubles (+15 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 34.24 roubles today (+30 kopeks).

Therefore, the whole bunch of negative factors that has been accumulating since the beginning of the week in the absence of trades in Rouble pairs has impact on quotes. National currency is still without support from oil sector.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 30.20-30.45 Roubles/USD at the trading session on Thursday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is going down in the negative area, and maintains a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7870 the pair will go to 0.7850 and 0.7830.

Statistics released on Thursday showed that manufacturing PMI in New Zealand fell to 48 points in Aprol against revised level of 53.8 points in March.

The head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Mr. Bollard said yesterday that exchange rate of the NZD may remain high even in case of decline in commodity prices; recent weakening of the national currency is directly linked with fundamental basis.

Financial system of New Zealand is very vulnerable to external influence, therefore, the RBNZ is prepared to pour liquidity into economy if situation in Europe deteriorates.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 this year against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Business confidence NBNZ in New Zealand rose to 35.8 points in April against preliminary expectations of 33.8 points. In addition, trade balance declined to +NZ$134million against the level of +NZ$202 million in February.

Statistics released earlier showed that, business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, versus the level of 28.0 points in February. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in business confidence. According to the data released earlier activity in production sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February.

At the meeting in April the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% per annum, which agreed with market expectations. The head of RBNZ Mr. Bollard said in the comments that inflationary pressure is limited and CPI is not going to exceed specified framework. He believes that New Zealand economy demonstrates recovery, and at the same time activity in the real estate sector is increasing. GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 2011 against forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP had almost stopped its growth, however started to revive later.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD started to descend in the negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1. 0090 the pair will go back to 1.0070 and 1.0050.

Statistics released today showed that unemployment rate in Australia fell to the lows of the year in April, reaching 4.9% against 5.2% a month earlier. Number of new jobs rose by 15 thousand last month against expectations of decline of 0.5 thousand.

Report illustrated that employment increased due to the rise in the part- time jobs (+26 thousand); however number of full time jobs fell by 10.5 thousand.

Such indicator on unemployment rate reduces chances that interest rate will be lowered in the near future.

Other statistics is alarming: trade balance amounted to -A$1.6 billion in March against the forecast of -A$1.2 billion. Growing deficit is not the best indication for Australian economy. It became known earlier that retail sales in Australia rose by 0.9% m/m in March against expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, business confidence index NAB increased to 4 points in April versus the level of 3 points in March.
Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held at the beginning of May, has astonished and alarmed the market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to the level of 3.75% per annum. The head of RBA, Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation give cause for government's concern. It is logical that the lending rate has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create more flexible lending conditions. However it is obvious that Australian economic system faces serious difficulties in development. According to RBA projections, inflation will become lower in the next two years; however it will remain in the range of 2-3%. Note, that CPI rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1 against expectation of growth of 0.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y).

RBA released a quarterly monetary policy report at the end of last week, which disappointed investors again: the regulator has lowered projections for economic growth and inflation, as weak employment sector and uncertainty in the housing sector impedes performance in other sectors. The data released earlier has provided convincing proof of traders' supposition that economy of the Green Continent is undergoing a very difficult period: index of business activity AI Group/CBA в in the service sector of Australia dropped by 7.4 points to the level of 39.6 points that is the three-year lows.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 79.60 the pair USD/JPY will go to 79.50 and 79.30. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Interest to JPY is explained by preservation of external tension at the global capital markets.

Statistics released this morning brought only good news: balance of current account in Japan amounted to +Y1.589 trillion in March against forecast of +Y1.449 trillion. At the same time, bank lending rose by 0.4% y/y in April. Therefore, the Country of the Rising Sun demonstrates surplus of current account for the second consecutive month which is a very good indication.

Stabilization in the European economy would have been good support for Japan; however there is no chance of it so far.

Preliminary index of leading indicator in Japan rose to the level of 96.6 points in March versus previous level of 96.0 points (growth has been observed for three consecutive months).

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimura, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician has stressed earlier that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, while the major risk factor is still the same- that is overall slowdown in the world economy.

Information which makes rather frequent appearances in press shows that the Bank of Japan can give up additional stimulation, largely due to inflationary risks. Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan of 9-10 April state that it is still required to track the effect of the monetary easing, which took place in February and also monitor international prices for raw materials. Apart from that the regulator did not make radical propositions.

We would remind that interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). At the same time, the bank informed about plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.
Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.5% in March; preliminary retail sales fell by 1.2% m/m (+10.3% y/y) last month against forecast of decline of 0.5% m/m. In addition, preliminary industrial production rose by 1.0% m/m (+13.9% y/y) in March against expectations of growth of 2.3% m/m.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to top and is going up rapidly in the positive area, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9280 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9290 and 0.9300.

There have not been changes in the macro-economic background of Switzerland.

Such drastic decline in Franc at the beginning of the week was caused by disturbances in Europe, driven by outcome of political elections in France and Greece.

Mr. Jordan became the governor of Swiss National Bank in April; he has been performing the duties since Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to implement existing monetary policy. He is going to protect current level of 1.20 for the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc remains overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain peg of Franc with the Euro. Jordan said a week earlier that the regulator was not going to turn to negative interest rate and would make all efforts to maintain the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/Franc.

Recall that GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero changes (+1.1% y/y). The data indicates that Swiss economy has adjusted to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of -0.6% to +0.6% and GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Statistics released last week was not very positive: PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. It also became known that unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 3.1% in April against 3.2% earlier.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area, it goes down, while volumes are decreasing as well, and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator pushed away from oversold zone earlier and is giving a sluggish buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6150 the pair GBP/USD will go to к 1.6160 and 1.6170. The pair may go down to 1.6100 if negative factors if negative factors increase.

Major news for the Pound will be the outcome of the meeting of the Bank of England which promises to be interesting in terms of comments on cutting back program of economic stimulus. In addition, the data on industrial output and trade balance will be released on Thursday and the figures may suggest new insight into prospects for British economic development.

It became known yesterday that sales at the similar trading floors BRC in the UK fell by 3.3% y/y in April against the forecast of growth of 0.6%. The Pound has almost not reacted to this statistics, as it is completely focused on external background and negative sentiment of investors who are moving away from risks. House price index RICS in the UK fell to -19 points in April against the level of -11 points in March. This is a negative signal as the decline is rather significant.

Index of business optimism Lloyds fell to 26 points in April against preliminary estimate of 31 points. This is one of the minor indexes; however it is very informative as it illustrates that business sector does not wait for good in regards to the economy of the country. Statistics released earlier showed that consumer confidence index GfK in the UK amounted to -31 points in April against the forecast of -30 points.

Levels of manufacturing activity in the UK are coming up to the state of stagnation in April. The index grew up to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011. Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain. British CBI reported downgrade of economic growth outlook to 0.6% for this year against prior estimate of 0.9% in February. Forecast for 2013 was remained unchanged at +2.0%.CBI believes that inflationary levels will remain above expectations due to increasing energy prices.

By 8.40 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2911 against yesterday's closing level of 1.2928.

The pair got under the target of "bears" since it became known that Syriza party in Greece was unable to form new government. Now, PASOK got to do it in case of failure, 'Golden Age" will be next. Ongoing problems with formation of new cabinet in the country add tension in the issue of expediency of Greece in the European area.

In addition, situation in Spanish financial sector is deteriorating. It became known that at least one of the largest banks will soon receive state help.

Thus, gloomy external background is still the main driver for currency pairs today.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2880-1.2990 at the trading session on Thursday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is going down in the negative area, and is maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7860 the pair will go to 0.7850 and 0.7830.

Macro-economic background in New Zealand is stable today; however external information is rather unfavourable: investors are moving away from risks because of disturbances in Europe, which primarily affects demand for high-risk currencies.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 this year against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Business confidence NBNZ in New Zealand rose to 35.8 points in April against preliminary expectations of 33.8 points. In addition, trade balance declined to +NZ$134million against the level of +NZ$202 million in February.

Statistics released earlier showed that, business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, versus the level of 28.0 points in February. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in business confidence. According to the data released earlier activity in production sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February.

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 2011 against forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP had almost stopped its growth, however started to revive later.

At the meeting in April the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% per annum, which agreed with market expectations. The head of RBNZ Mr. Bollard said in the comments that inflationary pressure is limited and CPI is not going to exceed specified framework. He believes that New Zealand economy demonstrates recovery, and at the same time activity in the real estate sector is increasing.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD started to descend in the negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0070 the pair will go back to 1.0060 and 1.0030.

Market is still trying to move away from risks, which has negative impact on positions of the AUD that are very unsteady. In addition, comments of the politicians in the country that theoretically, budget surplus enables RBA to continue monetary policy easing, is also unfavourable for the AUD.

The data is disappointing: trade balance amounted to -A$1.6 billion in March against the forecast of -A$1.2 billion. Growing deficit is not the best indication for Australian economy. It became known earlier that retail sales in Australia rose by 0.9% m/m in March against expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, business confidence index NAB increased to 4 points in April versus the level of 3 points in March.
Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held at the beginning of May, has astonished and alarmed the market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to the level of 3.75% per annum. The head of RBA, Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation give cause for government's concern. It is logical that the lending rate has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create more flexible lending conditions. However it is obvious that Australian economic system faces serious difficulties in development. According to RBA projections, inflation will become lower in the next two years; however it will remain in the range of 2-3%. Note, that CPI rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1 against expectation of growth of 0.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y).

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate was 5.2% versus the 5.3% earlier. 
RBA released a quarterly monetary policy report at the end of last week, which disappointed investors again: the regulator has lowered projections for economic growth and inflation, as weak employment sector and uncertainty in the housing sector impedes performance in other sectors. The data released earlier has provided convincing proof of traders' supposition that economy of the Green Continent is undergoing a very difficult period: index of business activity AI Group/CBA в in the service sector of Australia dropped by 7.4 points to the level of 39.6 points that is the three-year lows.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 79.70 the pair USD/JPY will go to 79.60 and 79.50. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

The data released this morning showed that preliminary index of leading indicator in Japan rose to the level of 96.6 points versus previous level of 96.0 points (growth has been observed for three consecutive months).

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimura, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician has stressed earlier that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, while the major risk factor is still the same- that is overall slowdown in the world economy.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.5% in March; preliminary retail sales fell by 1.2% m/m (+10.3% y/y) last month against forecast of decline of 0.5% m/m. In addition, preliminary industrial production rose by 1.0% m/m (+13.9% y/y) in March against expectations of growth of 2.3% m/m.

Information which makes rather frequent appearances in press shows that the Bank of Japan can give up additional stimulation, largely due to inflationary risks. Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan of 9-10 April state that it is still required to track the effect of the monetary easing, which took place in February and also monitor international prices for raw materials. Apart from that the regulator did not make radical propositions.

We would remind that interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). At the same time, the bank informed about plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF traded in the negative zone; however it is growing and tends to break signal line from bottom to top, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9260 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9270 and 0.9300.

Macro-economic background in Switzerland is quiet this morning and the pair is guided by external environment.

Such drastic decline in Franc at the beginning of the week was caused by disturbances in Europe, driven by outcome of political elections in France and Greece.

Statistics released last week was not very positive: PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. It also became known that unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 3.1% in April against 3.2% earlier.

Mr. Jordan became the governor of Swiss National Bank in April; he has been performing the duties since Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to implement existing monetary policy. He is going to protect current level of 1.20 for the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc remains overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain peg of Franc with the Euro. Jordan said a week earlier that the regulator was not going to turn to negative interest rate and would make all efforts to maintain the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/Franc. 
Recall that GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero changes (+1.1% y/y). The data indicates that Swiss economy has adjusted to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of -0.6% to +0.6% and GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it traded along the signal line and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator has pushed away from oversold zone and is giving a sluggish buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6150 the pair GBP/USD will go to к 1.6160 and 1.6170. The pair may go down to 1.6100.

It became known this morning that sales at the similar trading floors BRC in the UK fell by 3.3% y/y in April against the forecast of growth of 0.6%. The Pound has almost not reacted to this statistics, as it is completely focused on external background and negative sentiment of investors who are moving away from risks.

House price index RICS in the UK fell to -19 points in April against the level of -11 points in March. This is a negative signal as the decline is rather significant.

British CBI reported downgrade of economic growth outlook to 0.6% for this year against prior estimate of 0.9% in February. Forecast for 2013 was remained unchanged at +2.0%.CBI believes that inflationary levels will remain above expectations due to increasing energy prices. Index of business optimism Lloyds fell to 26 points in April against preliminary estimate of 31 points. This is one of the minor indexes; however it is very informative as it illustrates that business sector does not wait for good in regards to the economy of the country. Statistics released earlier showed that consumer confidence index GfK in the UK amounted to -31 points in April against the forecast of -30 points.

Levels of manufacturing activity in the UK are coming up to the state of stagnation in April. The index grew up to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011. Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain. 
Next meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, 10 May, promises to be interesting in terms of comments on cutting back program of economic stimulus. In addition, the data on industrial output and trade balance will be released on this day and the figures may suggest new insight into prospects for British economic development.

By 9.40 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2974 against yesterday's closing session level of 1.3004.

Continuation of sales in the major pair is linked with political risks in France and Greece, as well as rumors about aggravation in economic situation of Spain.

Investors are moving away from risks, amid such state of affairs, which affects dynamics of EUR/USD.

Macro-economic calendar is almost empty for Wednesday; only German statistics released this morning is noteworthy.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2940-1.3030 at the trading session on Wednesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD started to descend in the negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0180 the pair will go back to 1.0160 and 1.0130.

In the situation when investors are not eager to take risk in the global capital markets, statistic encourages sales of the AUD.

According to statistics released today, trade balance amounted to -A$1.6 billion in March against the forecast of -A$1.2 billion. Growing deficit is not the best indication for Australian economy.

It became known yesteday that retail sales in Australia rose by 0.9% m/m in March against expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, business confidence index NAB increased to 4 points in April versus the level of 3 points in March.

RBA released a quarterly monetary policy report at the end of last week, which frustrated investors again: the regulator has lowered projections for economic growth and inflation, as weak employment sector and uncertainty in the housing sector impedes performance in other sectors. The data released earlier has provided convincing proof of traders' supposition that economy of the Green Continent is undergoing a very difficult period: index of business activity AI Group/CBA в in the service sector of Australia dropped by 7.4 points to the level of 39.6 points that is the three-year lows.

Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held at the beginning of May, has astonished and alarmed the market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to the level of 3.75% per annum. The head of RBA, Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation give cause for government's concern. It is logical that the lending rate has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create more flexible lending conditions. However it is obvious that Australian economic system faces serious difficulties in development. According to RBA projections, inflation will become lower in the next two years; however it will remain in the range of 2-3%. Note, that CPI rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1 against expectation of growth of 0.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y).

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate was 5.2% versus the 5.3% earlier.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.00 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.10 and 80.30. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

There was some information in press that the Bank of Japan can give up additional stimulation, largely due to inflationary risks. Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan of 9-10 April which were released yesterday state that it is still required to track the effect of the monetary easing, which took place in February and also monitor international prices for raw materials. Apart from that the regulator did not suggest significant changes.

We would remind that interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). At the same time, the bank informed about plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimura, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed earlier that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, while the major risk factor is still the same that is overall slowdown in the world economy.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.
Unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.5% in March; preliminary retail sales fell by 1.2% m/m (+10.3% y/y) last month against the forecast of decline of 0.5% m/m. In addition, preliminary industrial production rose by 1.0% m/m (+13.9% y/y) in March against expectations of growth of 2.3% m/m.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF traded in the negative zone; however it is growing and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 0.92420, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9240 and 0.9260.

Investors are waiting for the information on Swiss GDP, as this important indicator is able to reverse the pair to either direction. Recall that GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against forecast of zero changes (+1.1% y/y). This good performance indicates that the Swiss economy has adjusted to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of -0.6% to +0.6%; GDP growth will be 1.0% this year.

Drastic decline in Franc at the beginning of the week was triggered by disturbance in Europe driven by outcome of political elections in France and Greece.

It became known yesterday that unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 3.1% in April against 3.2% earlier.

Statistics released last week was not very positive: PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

At the last meeting Swiss National Bank left a three-month Libor rate unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's views on monetary policy have remained unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level of 1.20, talk, that pegging level of Franc to Euro will probably go up to 1.25, is getting louder in the market.

Mr. Jordan became the governor of Swiss National Bank in April. However, he has been performing these duties since Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to implement existing monetary policy. He is going to protect current level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc remains overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain peg of Franc with the Euro. Jordan said a week earlier that the regulator is not going to shift to negative interest rate and will make all efforts to maintain the level at 1.20 in the pair EUR/Franc.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and maintains a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has pushed away from oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at ht level of 1.6180 the pair GBP/USD will go to к 1.6190 and 1.62100. Consolidation at the achieved levels is possible.

It became known today that house price index RICS in the UK fell to -19 points in April against the level of -11 points in March. This is a negative signal as the decline is rather significant.

Next meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, 10 May, promises to be interesting in terms of comments on cutting back program of economic stimulus. In addition, the data on industrial output and trade balance will be released this day and the figures may suggest new insight into prospects for British economic development.

British CBI reported downgrade of economic growth outlook to 0.6% for this year against prior estimate of 0.9% in February. Forecast for 2013 was remained unchanged at +2.0%.CBI believes that inflationary levels will remain above expectations due to increasing energy prices. Index of business optimism Lloyds fell to 26 points in April against preliminary estimate of 31 points. This is one of the minor indexes; however it is very informative as it illustrates that business sector does not wait for good in regards to the economy of the country. Statistics released earlier showed that consumer confidence index GfK in the UK amounted to -31 points in April against the forecast of -30 points.

Levels of manufacturing activity in the UK are coming up to the state of stagnation in April. The index grew up to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011. Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain.

By 9.10 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3030 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3049.

Today's sales were triggered by fear of significant escalation of debt crisis in Eurozone, which was raised by Greece where a leader of "New Democracy" failed to form a new government and gave these powers to the head of the party Syriza.

As a result, Greece gives cause for serious concern once again as it was leaders of Syriza who declared earlier that they would destroy all financial agreements with EU over budget savings

German statistics on production output will be worth of attention this afternoon, as well as American data on begun construction tonight.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2970-1.3080 at the trading session on Tuesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is moving along the signal line in the negative area and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0160 the pair will go back to 1.0140 and 1.0120.

It became known today that retail sales in Australia rose by 0.9% m/m in March against expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, business confidence index NAB increased to 4 points in April versus the level of 3 points in March.

However, the AUD has ignored this statistics, which is in general positive, and plunges down under pressure of external background, as investors do all in their power in order to dodge risks

The RBA released a quarterly monetary policy report at the end of last week, which frustrated investors again: the regulator has lowered projections for economic growth and inflation, as weak employment sector and uncertainty in the housing sector impedes performance in other sectors. The data released earlier has provided convincing proof of traders' supposition that economy of the Green Continent is undergoing a very difficult period: index of business activity AI Group/CBA в in the service sector of Australia dropped by 7.4 points to the level of 39.6 points that is the three-year lows.

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate was 5.2% versus the 5.3% earlier. 
A meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held at the beginning of May, has astonished and alarmed the market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to the level of 3.75% per annum. The head of RBA, Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation raises concerns of the government of the country. It is logical that the rate of lending has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create more flexible lending conditions. However it is obvious that Australian economic system faces serious difficulties. According to RBA projections, inflation will become lower in the next two years; however it will remain in the range of 2-3%. Note, that CPI rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1 against expectation of growth of 0.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y).

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 79.80 the pair USD/JPY will go to 79.70 and 79.50. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Therefore, safe currency is in demand again among investors, due to rise of turbulence in Europe.

Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan of 9-10 April were released today. The minutes state that it is still required to track the effect of the monetary easing, which took place in February and also monitor international prices for raw materials. Apart from that the regulator did not suggest anything new.

We would remind that interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). At the same time, the bank informed about plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.5% in March; preliminary retail sales fell by 1.2% m/m (+10.3% y/y) last month against the forecast of decline of 0.5% m/m. In addition, preliminary industrial production rose by 1.0% m/m (+13.9% y/y) in March against expectations of growth of 2.3% m/m.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimura, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, while the major risk factor is still the same - overall slowdown in the world economy.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and traded along the signal line in minimal volumes and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into overbought zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9240, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9250 and 0.9270.

Such drastic decline in Franc was triggered by turbulence in Europe because of outcome of political elections in France and Greece.

It became known today that unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 3.1% in April against 3.2% earlier.

Mr. Jordan became the governor of Swiss National Bank in April, he has been performing these duties since Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to implement existing monetary policy. He is going to protect current level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc remains overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain peg of Franc with the Euro. Jordan said a week earlier that the regulator is not going to shift to negative interest rate and will make all efforts to maintain the level at 1.20 in the pair EUR/Franc.

Statistics released last week was not very positive: PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

At the last meeting Swiss National Bank left a three-month Libor rate unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's views on monetary policy have remained unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level of 1.20, talk, that pegging level of Franc to Euro will probably go up to 1.25, is getting louder in the market.

GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will be in the range of: -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and is maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come back to the oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at ht level of 1.6150 the pair GBP/USD will go to к 1.6160 and 1.6180. Consolidation at the achieved levels is possible.

Macro-economic background in Great Britain is stable at the beginning of the week.

Next meeting of the Bank of England will be held on Thursday, 10 May- it promises to be interesting in terms of comments on cutting back program of economic stimulus.

CBI reported downgrade of economic growth outlook to 0.6% for this year against prior estimate of 0.9% in February. Forecast for 2013 was remained unchanged at +2.0%.CBI believes that inflationary levels will remain above expectations due to increasing energy prices. Index of business optimism Lloyds fell to 26 points in April against preliminary estimate of 31 points. This is one of the minor indexes; however it is very informative as it illustrates that business sector does not wait for good in regards to the economy of the country. Statistics released earlier showed that consumer confidence index GfK in the UK amounted to -31 points in April against the forecast of -30 points. 
Levels of manufacturing activity in the UK are coming up to the state of stagnation in April. The index grew up to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011. Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain.

GDP in Q1 fell by 0.2% in the first reading against decline of 0.3% on quarterly basis (+0.5% y/y) a quarter earlier. It proves that country's economy has been in recession for the second quarter.

Unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed rose by 3.6 thousand. Volume of retail sales rose by 1.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. This is much higher than expected.

By 9.40 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3082against closing level of on Friday.

Outcome of elections in France and Greece has triggered sales of European currency today.

Paris has already reported that Mr. Hollande, a socialist has won presidential race. In Greece, a leader of PASOK has won elections and now calls for a unity government. As expected vast majority of the population of Greece voted for those parties which opposed tough budget reduction.

Important data which is going to be released today- is investor confidence index Sentix in Eurozone in May.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2950-1.3050 at the trading session on Monday.

Trading session for the USD started at the level of 29.49 roubles, which is 8 kopeks more that yesterday's closing level; the Euro started at the level 38.9 roubles (+8 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.77 roubles today (+8 kopeks).

Therefore, the USD has reached two-week highs in the pair with the Rouble.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.45-29.60 roubles/USD

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD has slowed down growth in the negative area, however is still giving a moderate buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0250 the pair will go back to 1.0240 and 1.0220.

Positions of the AUD are still weak - currency has declined significantly over the past 5 days.

The RBA released a quarterly monetary policy report today, which upset made investors anxious: the regulator has lowered projections for economic growth and inflation, as weak employment sector and uncertainty in the housing sector impedes performance in other sectors.

The data released earlier confirmed traders' hypothesis that economy of the Green Continent is undergoing a very difficult period: index of business activity AI Group/CBA в in the service sector of Australia dropped by 7.4 points to the level of 39.6 points, which is three-year lows.

Market has many reasons to continue sales of the AUD. A meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held earlier, has astonished and alarmed the market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to the level of 3.75% per annum. The head of RBA Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation raises concerns of the government of the country. It is logical that the rate of lending has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create more flexible lending conditions. However it is obvious that Australian economic system faces serious difficulties.

According to RBA projections, inflation will become lower in the next two years; however it will remain in the range of 2-3%. Note, that CPI rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1 against expectation of growth of 0.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y).

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate was 5.2% versus the 5.3% earlier.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.20 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.30 and 80.50. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Market is discussing warning made by agency S&P about possibility of downgrade of the Japanese rating.

In general, activity in the "safe" currency is low; it seems that investors are going to bide time until American key reports on employment will be made known.

Unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.5% in March; preliminary retail sales fell by 1.2% m/m (+10.3% y/y) last month against the forecast of decline of 0.5% m/m. In addition, preliminary industrial production rose by 1.0% m/m (+13.9% y/y) in March against expectations of growth of 2.3% m/m.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Meeting of the Bank of Japan last week had predictable outcome: interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). The bank plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimura, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, while the major risk factor is still the same - overall slowdown in the world economy.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and goes down, giving a weak sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up slowly in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9140, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9150 and 0.9170.

At the last meeting Swiss National Bank left a three-month Libor rate unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's views on monetary policy have remained unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level of 1.20, talk, that pegging level of Franc to Euro will probably go up to 1.25, is getting louder in the market.

GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will be in the range of: -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Mr. Jordan who became the governor of Swiss National Bank in April, and has also performed the duties since Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to adhere to the old monetary policy and is going to preserve the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc is still overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain a peg of Franc with the Euro. Jordan said a week earlier that the regulator is not going to shift into negative interest rate and will make all efforts to maintain the level at 1.20 in the pair EUR/Franc. 
This week statistics was not too good: PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and is maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come out of the overbought zone and is shaping a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at ht level of 1.6180 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6170 and 1.6160. Consolidation at the reached levels is possible.

Yesterday CBI reported downgrade of economic growth outlook to 0.6% for this year against prior estimate of 0.9% in February. Forecast for 2013 was remained unchanged at +2.0%.

CBI believes that inflationary levels will remain above expectations due to increasing energy prices.

Index of business optimism Lloyds fell to 26 points in April against preliminary estimate of 31 points. This is one of the minor indexes; however it is very informative as it illustrates that business sector does not wait for good in regards to the economy of the country. Statistics released earlier showed that consumer confidence index GfK in the UK amounted to -31 points in April against the forecast of -30 points.

According to representative of the Bank of England Mr. Posen, there is evidence, indicating positive momentum of growth. Monetary politician believes that inflation will not exceed target level of 2% until the end of this year. At the same time, levels of consumer confidence, affected by weak data on GDP, is a cause for concern. It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed people rose by 3.6 thousand. Volume of retail sales rose by 1.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. This is much higher than expected.

Levels of manufacturing activity in the UK were still close to stagnation in April. The index grew up to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011. Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain. GDP in Q1 fell by 0.2% in the first reading against decline of 0.3% on quarterly basis (+0.5% y/y) a quarter earlier. It proves that country's economy has been in recession for the second quarter.

By 9.00 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3147 against yesterday closing session level of 1.3151.

Market has already made use of the outcome of yesterday's meeting of the European Central Bank: interest rate was left unchanged at the level of 1.0% per annum, however the head of ECB Mr. Mario Graghi noted in the comments that economic outlooks are worsening and there are problems in the employment sector in the region.

Investors will watch for statistics on Eurozone this afternoon and the data on the U.S. employment sector tonight.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3090-1.3190 at the trading session on Friday.

Trading session for the USD started at the level of 29.45 roubles, which is 8 kopeks more that yesterday's closing level; the Euro started at the level 38.74 roubles (+5 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.64 roubles today.

Therefore, rouble pairs are under pressure from external background.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.40-29.55 RUB/USD at the trading session on Thursday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes up moderately in the negative area and is giving a buy signal while volumes are average. Stochastic Oscillator is going down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0300 the pair will go back to 1.0280 and 1.0260.

The data released this morning confirmed traders' hypothesis that economy of the Green Continent is undergoing a very difficult period: index of business activity AI Group/CBA в in the service sector of Australia dropped by 7.4 points to the level of 39.6 points, which is three-year lows.

Market has many reasons to continue sales of the AUD. A meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held earlier, has astonished and alarmed the market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to the level of 3.75% per annum. The head of RBA Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation raises concerns of the government of the country. It is logical that the rate of lending has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create more flexible lending conditions. However it is obvious that Australian economic system faces serious difficulties.

According to the forecast made by RBA, inflation will be lower in the next two years; however it will remain in the range of 2-3%. Note that CPI rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1 against expectation of growth of 0.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y).

Leading indicators index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to the level of 284.2 points against provisional expectations of growth of 0.6%. Growth rate amounted to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac clarified in the comments that negative dynamics in the growth rate, which has been preserved for the past six months, does not help to instill enthusiasm about prospects; experts do not expect that the rate will rise in the nearest future either. At the same time, economic development performance complies with forecasts for Australian economy for 2012 (3%); nevertheless, pace of growth in GDP remains below trend.

Statistics released earlier showed that lending to the private sector of Australia rose by 0.4% m/m in January against the forecast of growth of 0.3% m/m.

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate was 5.2% versus the 5.3% earlier.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.20 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.30 and 80.50. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Marco-economic situation in Japan is stable.

Unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.5% in March; preliminary retail sales fell by 1.2% m/m (+10.3% y/y) last month against the forecast of decline of 0.5% m/m. In addition, preliminary industrial production rose by 1.0% m/m (+13.9% y/y) in March against expectations of growth of 2.3% m/m.

Activity index in all sectors fell by 0.1% in February versus expectations of decline of 0.2%. Trade deficit amounted to Y82.6 billion in March against the level of Y226.3 billion in February. The data is positive and plus to this, other sections of the report showed that exports rose by 5.9%y/y last month and imports grew by 10.5% y/y.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimury, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, while the major risk factor is still the same - overall slowdown in the world economy.

Last meeting of the Bank of Japan last week had predictable outcome: interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). The bank plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and goes down slowly giving a weak sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9150, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9160 and 0.9180.

Statistics released last night was not too good: PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March.

Yesterday Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time.

Swiss National Bank left a three-month Libor rate unchanged at the level of 0%. at the last meeting. In general, SNB's views on monetary policy have remained unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level of 1.20, talk, that pegging level of Franc to Euro will probably go up to 1.25, is getting louder in the market.

So, after three -month break Swiss National Bank has a new governor now- this is Mr. Jordan who has performed the duties since January when Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to adhere to the old monetary policy and is going to preserve the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc is still overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain a peg of Franc with the Euro.

Jordan said last Friday that the regulator is not going to shift into negative interest rate and will make all efforts to maintain the level at 1.20 in the pair EUR/Franc.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will be in the range of: -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and is maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come out of the overbought zone and is shaping a sell signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6180, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6170 and 1.6160. Consolidation at the reached levels is possible.

The data released this morning showed that index of business optimism Lloyds fell to 26 points in April against preliminary estimate of 31 points. This is one of the minor indexes; however it is very informative as it illustrates that business sector does not wait for good in regards to the economy of the country.

We would remind that statistics released earlier showed that consumer confidence index GfK in the UK amounted to -31 points in April against the forecast of -30 points.

Levels of manufacturing activity in the UK were still close to stagnation in April. The index grew up to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011. Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain.

According to representative of the Bank of England Mr. Posen, there is evidence, indicating positive momentum of growth. Monetary politician believes that inflation will not exceed target level of 2% until the end of this year. At the same time, levels of consumer confidence, affected by weak data on GDP, is a cause for concern. It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed people rose by 3.6 thousand. Volume of retail sales rose by 1.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. This is much higher than expected.

British economic statistics released earlier was weak: GDP in Q1 fell by 0.2% in the first reading against decline of 0.3% on quarterly basis (+0.5% y/y) a quarter earlier. It proves that country's economy has been in recession for the second quarter. Favourable external background was able to brighten this pessimism; however in general this factor is negative.

By 8.35 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3145 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3157.

Flow of weak statistics on Eurozone as a whole and member- countries caused sales of the major pair in the middle of the week. Poor data on unemployment rate in the region, which rose to 10.9%, has become the main catalyst. Totally, number of unemployed people has reached a fifteen-year peak and this fact increases economic tension.

Today, investors will watch for the meeting of the European Central Bank and the data on U.S. labour market.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3090-1.3190 at the trading session on Thursday.

Trading session for the USD started at the level of 29.32 roubles, which is 9 kopeks less that closing level on Saturday; the Euro started movement at the level 38.78 roubles (-20 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.6 roubles today, (-14 kopeks).

Therefore, news, released during two previous trading days, has been taken into account for making up prices in the Rouble pairs.

Presumable, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.28-29.45 ROUBLE/USD at the trading session on Wednesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes up moderately in the negative area and is giving a buy signal while volumes are average. Stochastic Oscillator is going down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0320 the pair will go back to 1.0300 and 1.0280. Technical recovery at 1.0360 is possible.

The AUD has many reasons for continuing sales. Yesterday's meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia has astonished and alarmed the market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to the level of 3.75% per annum. The head of RBA Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation raises concerns of the government of the country. It is logical that the rate of lending has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create more flexible lending conditions. However it is obvious that Australian economic system faces difficulties.

According to the forecast made by RBA, inflation will be lower in the next two years; however it will remain in the range of 2-3%. Note that CPI rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1 against expectation of growth of 0.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y).

Statistics released earlier showed that lending to the private sector of Australia rose by 0.4% m/m in January against the forecast of growth of 0.3% m/m.

Leading indicators index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to the level of 284.2 points against provisional expectations of growth of 0.6%. Growth rate amounted to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac clarified in the comments that negative dynamics in the growth rate, which has been preserved for the past six months, does not help to instill enthusiasm about prospects; experts do not expect that the rate will rise in the nearest future either. At the same time, economic development performance complies with forecasts for Australian economy for 2012 (3%); nevertheless, pace of growth in GDP remains below trend.

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate was 5.2% versus the 5.3% earlier.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.60 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.70 and 80.90. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

The yen has managed to strengthen significantly during the time when the Japan was on holiday; now it is time for correction, as high rate of the JPY is harmful for the "new shoots" that turned up in the economy of the Country of the Rising Sun.

Macro-economic background in Japan is stable at today's trading session.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.5% in March; preliminary retail sales fell by 1.2% m/m (+10.3% y/y) last month against the forecast of decline of 0.5% m/m. In addition, preliminary industrial production rose by 1.0% m/m (+13.9% y/y) in March against expectations of growth of 2.3% m/m.

Activity index in all sectors fell by 0.1% in February versus expectations of decline of 0.2%. Trade deficit amounted to Y82.6 billion in March against the level of Y226.3 billion in February. The data is positive and plus to this, other sections of the report showed that exports rose by 5.9%y/y last month and imports grew by 10.5% y/y.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimury, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, while the major risk factor is still the same - overall slowdown in the world economy.

Meeting of the Bank of Japan last week was neutral: interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). The bank plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come out of the overbought zone and is shaping a buy signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9090, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9100 and 0.9120.

Macro-economic background is stable in Switzerland today; market was closed in the country yesterday due to celebration of the Labour Day.

Today, investors will await publication of Swiss PMI for April and the data on retail sales in March.

Swiss National Bank left a three-month Libor rate unchanged at the level of 0%. at the last meeting. In general, SNB's views on monetary policy have remained unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level of 1.20, talk, that pegging level of Franc to Euro will probably go up to 1.25, is getting louder in the market.

So, after three -month break Swiss National Bank has a new governor now- this is Mr. Jordan who has performed the duties since January when Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to adhere to the old monetary policy and is going to preserve the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc is still overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain a peg of Franc with the Euro.

Last Friday Jordan said that the regulator is not going to shift into negative interest rate and will make all efforts to maintain the level at 1.20 in the pair EUR/Franc.

GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will be in the range of: -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year. It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and is maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come out of the overbought zone and is shaping a sell signal.Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6220, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6205 and 1.6180. Consolidation at the reached levels is possible.

The fact that the pair is overbought is negative for the Pound Sterling; therefore, pullback from the current levels is required in order to continue growth.

Latest statistics showed that levels of manufacturing activity in the UK were still close to stagnation in April. The index grew up to 50.5 points against the forecast of 51.5 points which is the weakest growth since December 2011.

Indicators for March have been revised to 51.9 points from 52.1 points, which proves that economy of Eurozone is still having significant impact and prevents economic recovery in Britain.

According to representative of the Bank of England Mr. Posen, there is evidence, indicating positive momentum of growth. Monetary politician believes that inflation will not exceed target level of 2% until the end of this year. At the same time, levels of consumer confidence, affected by weak data on GDP, is a cause for concern. It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed people rose by 3.6 thousand. Volume of retail sales rose by 1.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. This is much higher than expected.

British economic statistics released earlier was weak: GDP in Q1 fell by 0.2% in the first reading against decline of 0.3% on quarterly basis (+0.5% y/y) a quarter earlier. It proves that country's economy has been in recession for the second quarter. Favourable external background was able to brighten this pessimism; however in general this factor is negative.

It became known at the end of the week that consumer confidence index GfK in the UK amounted to -31 points in April against the forecast of -30 points. Consumer confidence Nationwide rose to 53 points in March against the level of 44 points in February. This is a positive indicator, since the index at the highs of nine months.

By 8.50 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3221 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3236.

Japanese investors had resumed trading today and took advantages of the Australian news. Later, investors from those European countries, where Labor Day was celebrated yesterday, will be back in the market.

It is unlikely that there will be sharp market fluctuations today: investors' attention will be turned towards the end of the week when important American reports will be made known.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3180-1.3260 at the trading session on Wednesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is going down in the negative area, and is maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has reversed in the neutral zone and is going down now, giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8130, the pair will go to 0.8110 and 0.8090.

Macro-economic background in New Zealand is quiet today, however the NZD reacts to the negative date from the neighboring Australia.

At the meeting last week the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% per annum, which agreed with market expectations. The head of RBNZ Mr. Bollard said in the comments that inflationary pressure is limited and CPI is not going to exceed specified framework. He believes that New Zealand economy demonstrates recovery, and at the same time activity in the real estate sector is increasing.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 this year against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Business confidence NBNZ in New Zealand rose to 35.8 points in April against preliminary expectations of 33.8 points. In addition, trade balance dropped to +NZ$134million against the level of +NZ$202 million in February.

Statistics released earlier showed that, as per estimates of NBNZ, business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March versus the level of 28.0 points in February. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in the business confidence. According to the data released earlier activity in production sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February.

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 2011 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP had almost stopped its growth, however started to revive later. Most likely, the data for Q4 will be weaker.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes up moderately in the negative area and is giving a buy signal while volumes are average. Stochastic Oscillator has dropped in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0310 the pair will go back to 1.0300 and 1.0280.

Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia today has astonished and alarmed the market. Interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points now to the level of 3.75% per annum.

The head of RBA Mr. Stevens has referred to inflation in his comments, saying that slowdown in inflation raises concerns of the government of the country. It is logical that the rate of lending has been reduced to 3.75% from 4.25% in order to create better lending conditions. However it is obvious now that Australian economic system faces difficulties.

According to the RBA's forecast, inflation will be lower in the next two years; however it will remain in the range of 2-3%. CPI rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1 against expectation of growth of 0.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y).

The AUD rate has collapsed in response to decision of the regulator.

Statistics released yesterday showed that lending to the private sector of Australia rose by 0.4% m/m in January against the forecast of growth of 0.3% m/m.

Leading indicators index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to the level of 284.2 points against provisional expectations of growth of 0.6%. Growth rate amounted to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac clarified in the comments that negative dynamics in the growth rate, which has been preserved for the past six months, does not help to instill enthusiasm about prospects; experts do not expect that the rate will rise in the nearest future either. At the same time, economic development performance complies with forecasts for Australian economy for 2012 (3%); nevertheless, pace of growth in GDP remains below trend.

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate was 5.2% versus the 5.3% earlier. It became known earlier that import price index in Australia fell by 1.2% q/q in Q1 against the forecast of -0.6% q/q. At the same time, export prices fell to the lowest level since Q4 2010. Theoretically, decline in export prices was caused by reduction in price for crude ore in Australia and fall in the price for metal scrap. At the same time, slump in imports was triggered by expensive AUD.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 7970 the pair USD/JPY will go to 79.60 and 79.50. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Japanese market has been closed for the second day in a row today due to holidays.

Significant growth of the Yen can force government of the Country of the Rising Sun to start a new round of intervention.

Activity index in all sectors fell by 0.1% in February versus expectations of decline of 0.2%. Trade deficit amounted to Y82.6 billion in March against the level of Y226.3 billion in February. The data is positive and plus to this, other sections of the report showed that exports rose by 5.9%y/y last month and imports grew by 10.5% y/y.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

The data on Japanese economy released last week showed that unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.5% in March; preliminary retail sales fell by 1.2% m/m (+10.3% y/y) last month against the forecast of decline of 0.5% m/m. In addition, preliminary industrial production rose by 1.0% m/m (+13.9% y/y) in March against expectations of growth of 2.3% m/m.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimury, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, the major risk factor is - overall slowdown in the world economy. Meeting of the Bank of Japan last week was neutral: interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). The bank plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9050, the pair GBP/USD will go to 0.9040 and 0.9020. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Swiss market is closed today due to celebration of the Labour Day.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank, a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's views on monetary policy have remained unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level of 1.20, assumption about probability, that pegging level of Franc to Euro will go up to 1.25, is getting more persistent in the market.

After three -month break Swiss National Bank has a new governor now- this is Mr. Jordan who has performed the duties since January when Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to adhere to the old monetary policy and is going to preserve the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc is still overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain a peg of Franc with the Euro.

Jordan said last Friday that the regulator is not going to shift into negative interest rate and will make all efforts to maintain the level at 1.20 in the pair EUR/Franc.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it shows signs of recovery. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales rose by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will be in the range of: -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and is maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go out of the overbought zone and started to shape a sell signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6215, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6205 и 1.6180. Consolidation at the reached levels is possible.

The pair still looks overbought which creates sound basis for good correction.

Macro-economic situation in the UK is stable.

According to representative of the Bank of England Mr. Posen, there is evidence, indicating positive momentum of growth. Monetary politician believes that inflation will not exceed target level of 2% until the end of this year. At the same time, levels of consumer confidence, affected by weak data on GDP, is a cause for concern. It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed people rose by 3.6 thousand. Volume of retail sales rose by 1.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. This is much higher than expected.

British economic statistics released earlier was weak: GDP in Q1 fell by 0.2% in the first reading against decline of 0.3% on quarterly basis (+0.5% y/y) a quarter earlier. It proves that country's economy has been in recession for the second quarter. Favourable external background was able to brighten this pessimism; however in general this factor is negative.

It became known at the end of the week that consumer confidence index GfK in the UK amounted to -31 points in April against the forecast of -30 points. Consumer confidence Nationwide rose to 53 points in March against the level of 44 points in February. This indicator is positive, since it is at the highs of nine months.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Miles noted in the middle of the week that his view in favour of expansion of the stimulus measures has found support, although GDP statistics for Q1 is weak, as expected. British monetary politicians emphasized earlier that economic growth in the UK is still rather slow. Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Tucker said earlier that inflation in the UK is still above the target level; it is also highly possible that CPI will remain above 3% in throughout Q2 or probably through the whole period of the second half of 2012. At the same time, Tucker did not rule out that due to construction sector, economic growth in Q1 can be zero.

By 9.15 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3247 against yesterday's closing session level of 1.3238.

European countries celebrate Labour Day today therefore flow of macro-statistics will be minimal. Some revival is expected only late afternoon when the U.S. statistics on weekly index of LFL sales in the retail sector and Redbook indices will be released.

Publication of the U.S. index of economic conditions ISM in the manufacturing sector for April will be of interest.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3190-1.3280 at the trading session on Tuesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is going down in the negative area, and is maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone now, however it tends to go to overbought zone and keeps on giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8230, the pair will go to 0.8240 and 0.8250. In case of deterioration in the external background the pair will aim at 0.8135.

Statistics released today showed that business confidence NBNZ in New Zealand rose to 35.8 points in April against preliminary expectations of 33.8 points. In addition, trade balance dropped to +NZ$134million against the level of +NZ$202 million in February.

It is obvious that rapid growth on Friday will require some correction in the pair.

At the meeting last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% per annum, which agreed with market expectations. The head of RBNZ Mr. Bollard said in the comments that inflationary pressure is limited and CPI is not going to exceed specified framework. He believes that New Zealand economy demonstrates recovery, and at the same time activity in the real estate sector is increasing.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 this year against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier.

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 2011 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP had almost stopped its growth, however started to revive later. Most likely, the data for Q4 will be weaker.

Statistics released earlier showed that, as per estimates of NBNZ, business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March versus the level of 28.0 points in February. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in the business confidence. According to the data released earlier activity in production sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes up moderately in the negative area and is giving a buy signal while volumes are average. Stochastic Oscillator has come into overbought zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of1.0455, the pair will go back to 1.0460 and 1.0480. If aggressive buyers will be back into the pair, sales around 1.0310 will be possible.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Australia will be held on Tuesday; so traders are doing projections now: whether the regulator is going to reduce interest rate by 25 basis points or by 50 basis points at once.

Statistics released this morning showed that lending to the private sector of Australia rose by 0.4% m/m in January against the forecast of growth of 0.3% m/m.

Leading indicators index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to the level of 284.2 points against provisional expectations of growth of 0.6%. Growth rate amounted to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac clarified in the comments that negative dynamics in the growth rate, which has been preserved for the past six months, does not help to instill enthusiasm about prospects; experts do not expect that the rate will rise in the nearest future either. At the same time, economic development performance complies with forecasts for Australian economy for 2012 (3%); nevertheless, pace of growth in GDP remains below trend.

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

Statistics, released last week, was very weak: CPI rose by 0.1% q/q in Q1 (+1.6% y/y) against expectations of growth of o.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y). These data increases the likelihood that interest rate will be revised downward at the nearest meeting of the RBA. It became known earlier that import price index in Australia fell by 1.2% q/q in Q1 against the forecast of -0.6% q/q. At the same time, export prices fell to the lowest level since Q4 2010. Theoretically, decline in export prices was caused by reduction in price for crude ore in Australia and fall in the price for metal scrap. At the same time, slump in imports was caused by expensive AUD.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.15 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.00 and 79.80. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Macro-economic situation in Japan has not changed fundamentally at the beginning of the week.

A lot of data on Japanese economy which was released last week showed that unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.5% in March; preliminary retail sales fell by 1.2% m/m (+10.3% y/y) last month against the forecast of decline of 0.5% m/m. In addition, preliminary industrial production rose by 1.0% m/m (+13.9% y/y) in March against expectations of growth of 2.3% m/m.

Activity index in all sectors fell by 0.1% in February versus expectations of decline of 0.2%. Trade deficit amounted to Y82.6 billion in March against the level of Y226.3 billion in February. The data is positive and plus to this, other sections of the report showed that exports rose by 5.9%y/y last month and imports grew by 10.5% y/y.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q. According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimury, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, the major risk factor is - overall slowdown in the world economy.

A meeting of the Bank of Japan last week was neutral: interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). The bank plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD goes down in the positive area; it is prepared to break through the signal line from top to bottom and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9060, the pair GBP/USD will go to 0.9050 and 0.9030. Consolidation at the achieved levels is possible.

New head of SNB Mr. Jordan said last Friday that the regulator is not going to shift into negative interest rate and will continue to protect the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/Franc.

We would remind that at the last meeting of Swiss National Bank, a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's views on monetary policy have remained unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level of 1.20, assumption about probability, that pegging level of Franc to Euro will go up to 1.25, is getting more persistent in the market.

After three-month break Swiss National Bank has a new governor now- this is Mr. Jordan who has performed the duties since January when Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to adhere to the old monetary policy and is going to preserve the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc is still overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain a peg of Franc with the Euro.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it shows signs of recovery. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales rose by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will be in the range of: -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and is maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6290, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6300 and 1.6320. Consolidation at the achieved levels is possible.

Apparently, favourable market sentiment continues to push the GBP upward; however the level of overbought is increasing in the pair, creating conditions for technical pullback.

It became known at the end of the week that consumer confidence index GfK in the UK amounted to -31 points in April against the forecast of -30 points. Consumer confidence Nationwide rose to 53 points in March against the level of 44 points in February. This indicator is positive, since it is at the highs of nine months.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Miles noted in the middle of the week that his view in favour of expansion of the stimulus measures has found support, although GDP statistics for Q1 is weak, as expected. British monetary politicians emphasized earlier that economic growth in the UK is still rather slow. Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Tucker said earlier that inflation in the UK is still above the target level; it is also highly possible that CPI will remain above 3% in throughout Q2 or probably through the whole period of the second half of 2012. At the same time, Tucker did not rule out that due to construction sector, economic growth in Q1 can be zero.

According to representative of the Bank of England Mr. Posen, there is evidence, indicating positive momentum of growth. Monetary politician believes that inflation will not exceed target level of 2% until the end of this year. At the same time, levels of consumer confidence, affected by weak data on GDP, is a cause for concern. It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed people rose by 3.6 thousand. Volume of retail sales rose by 1.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. This is much high than expected.

British economic statistics released earlier was weak: GDP in Q1 fell by 0.2% in the first reading against decline of 0.3% on quarterly basis (+0.5% y/y) a quarter earlier. It proves that country's economy has been in recession for the second quarter. Favourable external background was able to brighten this pessimism; however in general this factor is negative.

By 9.20 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3247 against closing level of 1.3252 on Friday.

The major pair still has potential for growth; however statistics which is scheduled for release today may change force balance in the pair EUR/USD.

Publication of statistics on the economy of Germany and Eurozone is scheduled for today. The U.S. data on the levels of income and expenditures is going to be released in the afternoon, as well as some other statistics.

Thereupon, volatility rise in the pair is not excluded.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3180-1.3280 at the trading session on Monday.

Trading session for the USD started at the level of 29.37 roubles, which is 10 kopeks more that yesterday's closing level; the Euro started at the level 38.78 roubles (+2 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.61 roubles today, (+4 kopeks).

Therefore, increasing tension in the external trading floors forced the Rouble to be corrected.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8110, the pair will go to 0.8100 and 0.8090. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

At the meeting which ended this morning, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% per annum, which agreed with market expectations. The head of RBNZ Mr. Bollard said in the comments that inflationary pressure is limited and CPI is not going to exceed specified framework. He believes that New Zealand economy demonstrates recovery, and at the same time, activity in the real estate sector is increasing.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 this year against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Permits to construct fell by 6.7% m/m in February against revised level of +8.3% m/m in January. Statistics released earlier showed that business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, against the level of 28.0 points in February. The data helped to hold NZD from significant sales. The boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in the business confidence.

According to the data released this morning, activity index in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February.

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP had almost stopped its growth, however started to revive later. Most likely, the index will be weaker in Q4.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes up moderately in the negative area and is giving a buy signal while volumes are average. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of1.0360, the pair will go back to 1.0370 and 1.0390.

Macro-economic situation in Australia is stable on Friday morning. However, decrease in investors' sentiment in the world capital market has interrupted growth of the AUD rate.

Statistics, released this week, was very weak: CPI rose by 0.1% q/q in Q1 (+1.6% y/y) against expectations of growth of o.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y). These data increases the likelihood that interest rate will be revised downward at the nearest meeting of the RBA. It became known earlier that import price index in Australia fell by 1.2% q/q in Q1 against the forecast of -0.6% q/q. At the same time, export prices fell to the lowest level since Q4 2010. Theoretically, decline in export prices was caused by reduction in price for crude ore in Australia and fall in the price for metal scrap. At the same time, slump in imports was caused by expensive AUD.

Leading indicators index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to the level of 284.2 points against provisional expectations of growth of 0.6%. Growth rate amounted to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac clarified in the comments that negative dynamics in the growth rate, which has been preserved for the past six months, does not help to instill enthusiasm about prospects; experts do not expect that the rate will rise in the nearest future either. At the same time, economic development performance complies with forecasts for Australian economy for 2012 (3%); nevertheless, pace of growth in GDP remains below trend.

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.70 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.60 and 80.40. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

A lot of data on Japanese economy was released today, which shows that unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.5% in March; preliminary retail sales fell by 1.2% m/m (+10.3% y/y) last month against the forecast of decline of 0.5% m/m.

In addition, preliminary industrial production rose by 1.0% m/m (+13.9% y/y) in March against expectations of growth of 2.3% m/m.

A meeting of the Bank of Japan today was neutral: interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). The bank plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Activity index in all sectors fell by 0.1% in February versus expectations of decline of 0.2%. Trade deficit amounted to Y82.6 billion in March against the level of Y226.3 billion in February. The data is positive and plus to this, other sections of the report showed that exports rose by 5.9%y/y last month and imports grew by 10.5% y/y.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q. 
According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimury, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, the major risk factor is - overall slowdown in the world economy.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes down in the positive area and is giving a weak signal for selling. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go out of the oversold zone, shaping a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 0.9125, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9130 and 0.9150. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it shows signs of recovery. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales rose by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will be in the range of: -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

After three -month break Swiss National Bank has a new governor now- this is Mr. Jordan who has performed the duties since January when Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to adhere to the old monetary policy and is going to preserve the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc is still overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believe, that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain a peg of Franc with the Euro.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank, a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's views on monetary policy have remained unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level of 1.20, assumption about probability, that pegging level of Franc to Euro will go up to 1.25, is getting more persistent in the market.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and is maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go out of the overbought zone and is ready to shape a sell signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6155, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6140 and 1.6120. Consolidation at the achieved levels is possible.

It became known today that consumer confidence index GfK in the UK amounted to -31 points in April against the forecast of -30 points. Consumer confidence Nationwide rose to 53 points in March against the level of 44 points in February. This indicator is positive, since it is at the highs of nine months.

British economic statistics released earlier was weak: GDP in Q1 fell by 0.2% in the first reading against decline of 0.3% on quarterly basis (+0.5% y/y) a quarter earlier. It proves that country's economy has been in recession for the second quarter. Favourable external background was able to brighten this pessimism; however in general this factor is still negative.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Miles has noted in the middle of the week that his view in favour of expansion of the stimulus measures has found support, although GDP statistics for Q1 is expected to be weak. British monetary politicians emphasized earlier that economic growth in the UK is still rather slow. Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Tucker said earlier that inflation in the UK is still above the target level; it is also highly possible that CPI will remain above 3% in throughout Q2 or probably through the whole period of the second half of 2012. At the same time, Tucker did not rule out that due to construction sector, economic growth in Q1 can be zero.

According to representative of the Bank of England Mr. Posen, there is evidence, indicating positive momentum of growth. Monetary politician believes that inflation will not exceed target level of 2% until the end of this year. At the same time, levels of consumer confidence, affected by weak data on GDP, is a cause for concern. It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed people rose by 3.6 thousand. Volume of retail sales rose by 1.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. This was much high than expected.

By 9.10 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3181 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3219.

There were several reasons that caused sales in the pair this morning, the major of which was the news that agency S&P had downgraded rating of Spain. There is a threat in the country that public debt might grow due to weakening of the banking system in the country, which will ultimately increase the burden on budget deficit.

In addition, Euro/USD seem locally oversold this week, therefore, sales are logical.

It is worth noting that the U.S. statistics released yesterday was weak again and it also encourages sales.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3120-1.3210 at the trading session on Friday.

Therefore, investors' positive sentiment on Thursday has favourable effect on the positions of the Rouble pairs.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.23-29.40 RUB/USD at the trading session on Thursday.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8170 the pair will go to 0.8190 and 0.8220.

At the meeting which ended this morning, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% per annum, which agreed with market expectations.

The head of RBNZ said in the comments that inflationary pressure is limited and CPI is not going to exceed specified framework.

He believes that New Zealand economy demonstrates recovery, and at the same time, activity in the real estate sector is increasing.

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP had almost stopped its growth, however started to revive later. Most likely, the index will be weaker in Q4.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 this year against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier.

Permits to construct fell by 6.7% m/m in February against revised level of +8.3% m/m in January. Statistics released earlier showed that business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, against the level of 28.0 points in February. The data helped to hold NZD from significant sales. The boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in the business confidence. According to the data released this morning, activity index in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes up moderately in the negative area and is giving a buy signal while volumes are average. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of1.0380, the pair will go back to 1.0390 and 1.0420.

Today, positive external background has become a catalyst that can support restoration of the AUD from local lows.

However, statistics, released this week, was very weak: CPI rose by 0.1% q/q in Q1 (+1.6% y/y) against expectations of growth of o.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y). These data increases the likelihood that interest rate will be revised downward at the nearest meeting of the RBA. It became known earlier that import price index in Australia fell by 1.2% q/q in Q1 against the forecast of -0.6% q/q. At the same time, export prices fell to the lowest level since Q4 2010. Theoretically, decline in export prices was caused by reduction in price for crude ore in Australia and fall in the price for metal scrap. At the same time, slump in imports was caused by expensive AUD.

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

It became known earlier, leading indicators index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to the level of 284.2 points against provisional expectations of growth of 0.6%. Growth rate amounted to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac clarified in the comments that negative dynamics in the growth rate, which has been preserved for the past six months, does not help to instill enthusiasm about prospects; experts do not expect that the rate will rise in the nearest future either. At the same time, economic development performance complies with forecasts for Australian economy for 2012 (3%); nevertheless, pace of growth in GDP remains below trend.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.15 the pair USD/JPY will go to 81.10 and 80.90. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Statistics released this morning showed that activity index in all sectors fell by 0.1% in February versus expectations of decline of 0.2%. Trade deficit amounted to Y82.6 billion in March against the level of Y226.3 billion in February. The data is positive and plus to this, other sections of the report showed that exports rose by 5.9%y/y last month and imports grew by 10.5% y/y.

Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%. Consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 40.3 points in March against the level of 39.9 points in February. It is a good indicator which gives grounds to expect "new shoots" in the economy of the country.

Retail sales rose by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Japan last week was rather uneventful. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank disagreed with the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimury, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, the major risk factor is - overall slowdown in the world economy.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes down in the positive area and is giving a weak signal for selling. Stochastic Oscillator tends to stay in the overbought zone, maintaining a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 0.9075, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9060 and 0.9050. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Economic situation in Switzerland remains stable.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Franc has ignored this information, as investors' attention is focused on changes in the external environment.

Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it shows signs of recovery. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales rose by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will be in the range of: -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank, a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's views on monetary policy have remained unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level of 1.20, assumption about probability, that pegging level of Franc to Euro will go up to 1.25, is getting more persistent in the market.

So, after three -month break Swiss National Bank has a new governor now- this is Mr. Jordan who has performed the duties since January when Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already said that he would continue to adhere to the old monetary policy and is going to preserve the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc is still overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in the Eurozone, it is still required to maintain a peg of Franc with the Euro.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and is maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6190, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6200 and 1.6200. Consolidation at the achieved levels is possible.

British economic statistics released yesterday was weak: GDP in Q1 fell by 0.2% in the first reading against decline of 0.3% on quarterly basis (+0.5% y/y) a quarter earlier. It proves that country's economy has been in recession for the second quarter. This negative factor was smoothed over by favourable external background; however this factor is negative in general.

According to the data released today, consumer confidence Nationwide rose to 53 points in March against the level of 44 points in February. This is a positive indicator as the index is at the nine-month highs at the moment.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Miles has noted in the middle of the week that his view in favour of expansion of the stimulus measures has found support, although GDP statistics for Q1 is expected to be weak. British monetary politicians emphasized earlier that economic growth in the UK is still rather slow.

According to representative of the Bank of England Mr. Posen, there is evidence, indicating positive momentum of growth. Monetary politician believes that inflation will not exceed target level of 2% until the end of this year. At the same time, levels of consumer confidence, affected by weak data on GDP, is a cause for concern. It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed people rose by 3.6 thousand.

The data on retail sales, released last Friday, still has beneficial effect on the GBP: thus, volume of retail sales in March increased by 1.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) against the forecast of growth of 0.4%. This was much above expectations.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Tucker said earlier that inflation in the UK is still above the target level; it is also highly possible that CPI will remain above 3% in throughout Q2 or probably through the whole period of the second half of 2012. At the same time, Tucker did not rule out that due to construction sector, economic growth in Q1 can be zero.

By 8.25 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3223 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3216.

Today moderate enthusiasm was raised by the outcome of two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve which finished yesterday. Interest rate was kept unchanged in the range of 0-0.25% per annum, forecast for economic growth was slightly upgraded.

Meanwhile, market completely ignored weak statistics which came from the USA

Today investors will analyze outcome of the meeting held by American regulator; in the afternoon they will await news on the U.S. labour market.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3150-1.3250 at the trading session on Thursday.

Thus, market activity has been reduced to zero by expectations of the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.30-29.45 RUB/USD at the trading session on Wednesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes up moderately in the negative area and is giving a buy signal while volumes are average. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a signal a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0320 the pair will go back to 1.0330 and 1.0340. If pessimistic sentiments dominate in the pair, target for sale will be the level of 1.250.

Statistics released this week, was very weak: CPI rose by 0.1% q/q in Q1 (+1.6% y/y) against expectations of growth of o.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y). These data increases the likelihood that interest rate will be revised downward at the nearest meeting of the RBA. It became known earlier that import price index in Australia fell by 1.2% q/q in Q1 against the forecast of -0.6% q/q. At the same time, export prices fell to the lowest level since Q4 2010. Theoretically, decline in export prices was caused by reduction in price for crude ore in Australia and fall in the price for metal scrap. At the same time, slump in imports was caused by expensive AUD.

It became known earlier, leading indicators index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to the level of 284.2 points against provisional expectations of growth of 0.6%. Growth rate amounted to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac clarified in the comments that negative dynamics in the growth rate, which has been preserved for the past six months, does not help to instill enthusiasm about prospects; experts do not expect that the rate will rise in the nearest future either. At the same time, economic development performance complies with forecasts for Australian economy for 2012 (3%); nevertheless, pace of growth in GDP remains below trend.

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.30 the pair USD/JPY will go to 81.10 and 80.90. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

There was an earthquake in Japan this morning, which has driven to slight weakening in the rate of the Yen.

Earlier, the JPY had been corrected- it moved away from local highs sufficiently enough to stop sales. Now, demand for "safe" currency willbe increasing, as long as external background remains ambiguous.

Trade deficit in Japan amounted to Y82.6 billion in March against the level of Y226.3 billion in February. This data is positive; other sections of the report also demonstrated that exports rose by 5.9% y/y last month, imports increased by 10.5% y/y.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Japan last week was rather uneventful. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank disagreed with the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimury, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, the major risk factor is - overall slowdown in the world economy.

Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%. Consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 40.3 points in March against the level of 39.9 points in February. It is a good indicator which gives grounds to expect "new shoots" in the economy of the country. Retail sales rose by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6140, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6150 and 1.6170. Consolidation at the achieved levels is possible.

Yesterday the Pound stood still in the narrow range after publication of statistics on borrowing in the public sector; today the Pound is waiting for external catalysts, such as outcomes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.

Governor of the Bank of England Mr. Miles noted in the middle of the week that his opinion in favour of expansion of the stimulus measures has found support, although GDP statistics for Q1 is expected to be weak.

British monetary politicians emphasized yesterday that economic growth in the UK is still rather slow.

According to representative of the Bank of England Mr. Posen, there is evidence, indicating positive momentum of growth. Monetary politician believes that inflation will not exceed target level of 2% until the end of this year. At the same time, levels of consumer confidence, affected by weak data on GDP, is a cause for concern. It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed people rose by 3.6 thousand.

The data on retail sales, released last Friday, still has beneficial effect for the GBP: thus, volume of retail sales in March increased by 1.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) against the forecast of growth of 0.4%. This was much above expectations.

The data released earlier showed that level of retail sales in the UK increased due to warm weather and demand for clothing in March. Thus, index in the shops, which were opened less than one year ago, rose by 1.3% y/y in March, while the index went down in January and February. However, it is worth noting that reaction of the Bank of England to this statistics was not very enthusiastic. The rise in unemployment and high oil prices can impede growth in demand.

Information, that rating agency A&P has confirmed rating of Great Britain at the top level of AAA, has become a new catalyst for growth last week. Prime-Minister Cameron commented that the rates should be kept low in order to be able to stimulate economic growth.
Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Tucker said earlier that inflation in the UK is still above the target level; it is also highly possible that CPI will remain above 3% in throughout Q2 or probably through the whole period of the second half of 2012. At the same time, Tucker did not rule out that due to construction sector, economic growth in Q1 can be zero.

By 8.40 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3195 against yesterday's closing session level of 1.3196.

Negative American statistics upset players yesterday, so activity in the major pair is very low today: market is waiting for the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.

Special attention will be drawn to the press-conference of the Chairman of the U.S.FR, Mr. Ben Bernanke. Main trends in the market will be developed based on his statements.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3080-1.3220 at the trading session on Wednesday.

Therefore, some growth in the Russian currency is associated with some improvements in investors' sentiments at the global markets.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.45-29.60 RUB/USD at the trading session on Tuesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes up moderately in the negative area and is giving a buy signal while volumes are average. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a signal a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0270 the pair will go back to 1.0260 and 1.0240.

Statistics released this morning was disappointing for the AUD: CPI rose by 0.1% q/q in Q1 (+1.6% y/y) against expectations of growth of o.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y).

These data increase the likelihood that interest rate will be revised downward at the nearest meeting of the RBA.

It became known earlier that import price index in Australia fell by 1.2% q/q in Q1 against the forecast of -0.6% q/q. At the same time, export prices fell to the lowest level since Q4 2010. Theoretically, decline in export prices was caused by reduction in price for crude ore in Australia and fall in the price for metal scrap. At the same time, slump in imports was caused by expensive AUD.

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis.

According to the data released earlier, employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

It became known earlier, leading indicators index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to the level of 284.2 points against preliminary expectations of growth of 0.6%. Growth rate amounted to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac clarified in the comments that negative dynamics if the growth rate, which has been preserved for the past six months, does not help to instill enthusiasm in regards to prospects; experts do not expect that the rate will rise in the nearest future either. At the same time, economic development performance is in compliance with forecasts for Australian economy for 2012 (3%); however pace of growth in GDP remains below rend.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.95 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.80 and 80.70. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Macro-economic situation is stable in Japan on Tuesday morning.

Earlier, the JPY has been corrected, as it moved away from local highs sufficiently enough to stop sales. Now, demand for "safe" currency will be increasing, as long as external background remains ambiguous.

Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%. Consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 40.3 points in March against the level of 39.9 points in February. It is a good indicator which gives grounds to expect "new shoots" in the economy of the country.

Retail sales rose by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Trade deficit in Japan amounted to Y82.6 billion in March against the level of Y226.3 billion in February. This data is positive; other sections of the report also demonstrated that exports rose by 5.9% y/y last month, imports increased by 10.5% y/y.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Japan last week was rather quiet. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank disagreed with the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimury, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, the major risk factor is - overall slowdown in the world economy.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to the top and is now in the positive area; however it is moving along the signal line, while volume are very low, and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into oversold zone, maintaining a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 0.9110, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9100 and 0.9080. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

It became known today that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Franc has ignored this information, as investors are focused on changes in the external environment.

Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland, however it shows recovering trend. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales increased by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will amount from -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank, a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's view on monetary policy remains unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level at 1.20, assumption about probability, that pegging level of Franc to Euro will go to 1.25, is getting more persistent in the market.

So, after three -month break Swiss National Bank has a new governor now- this is Mr. Jordan who has performed the duties since January when Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already said that he would continue to adhere to the old monetary policy and is going to preserve the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc is still overvalued.

In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in the Eurozone, it is still required to maintain a peg of Franc with the Euro.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6140, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6150 and 1.6170. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

British currency still retains potential to grow; however mixed external background prevents from keeping on steady growth.

The data on retail sales, released on Friday, has had beneficial effect for the GBP: thus, volume of retail sales in March increased by 1.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) against the forecast of growth of 0.4%. This was much above expectations.

The data released earlier showed that level of retail sales in the UK increased due to warm weather and demand for clothing in March. Thus, index in the shops, which were opened less than one year ago, rose by 1.3% y/y in March, while the index went down in January and February. However, it is worth noting that reaction of the Bank of England to this statistics was not very enthusiastic. The rise in unemployment and high oil prices can impede growth in demand.

According to representative of the Bank of England Mr. Posen, there is evidence, indicating positive momentum of growth. Monetary politician believes that inflation will not exceed target level of 2% until the end of this year. At the same time, levels of consumer confidence, affected by weak data on GDP, is a cause for concern. It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed people rose by 3.6 thousand.

Information, that rating agency A&P has confirmed rating of Great Britain at the top level of AAA, has become a new catalyst for growth last week. Prime-Minister Cameron commented that the rates should be kept low in order to be able to stimulate economic growth.
Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Tucker said earlier that inflation in the UK is still above the target level; it is also highly possible that CPI will remain above 3% in throughout Q2 or probably through the whole period of the second half of 2012. At the same time, Tucker did not rule out that due to construction sector, economic growth in Q1 can be zero.

Consumer confidence GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy.

By 9.15 Moscow time, the Euro is at 1.3145 against yesterday's closing session level of 1.3155.

There were a lot of grounds for sales yesterday: Government is being replaced in Holland, as it failed to cope with current debt problems; some changes in the government are expected in France; European statistics was weak and there were negative signals from Australia. "Bears" in the major pair took advantage of the situation.

Today, trading in the market will be in the narrow range in advance of comments from U.S. Federal Reserve

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3080-1.3180 at the trading session on Tuesday.

Therefore, mixed movement in the world capital market at the beginning of the week does not encourage high activity in the rouble pairs despite growth in the oil prices.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.40-29.60 RUB/USD at the trading session on Monday.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0310 the pair will go back to 1.0300 and 1.0290.

The data released in the morning showed that final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis.

It became known earlier that import price index in Australia fell by 1.2% q/q in Q1 against the forecast of -0.6% q/q. At the same time, export prices fell to the lowest level since Q4 2010. Theoretically, decline in export prices was caused by reduction in price for crude ore in Australia and fall in the price for metal scrap. At the same time, slump in imports was caused by expensive AUD. Prime Minister of Australia Julia Gillard said last Thursday that government is still determined to preserve budget surplus. It is very important for Australia, especially taking into account that binds with China are very strong. Employment rate in Australia increased by 44 thousand in February versus expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. The rate of unemployment amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

It became known earlier, leading indicators index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to the level of 284.2 points against preliminary expectations of growth of 0.6%. Growth rate amounted to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac clarified in the comments that negative dynamics if the growth rate, which has been preserved for the past six months, does not help to instill enthusiasm in regards to prospects; experts do not expect that the rate will rise in the nearest future either. At the same time, economic development performance is in compliance with forecasts for Australian economy for 2012 (3%); however pace of growth in GDP remains below rend.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and continues to go down, maintaining a signal for moderate sales. Stochastic Oscillator has come into overbought zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.20 the pair USD/JPY will go to 81.10 and 80.90. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Earlier, the JPY has had "corrected" sufficiently, moving away from local highs, in order to stop sales. Now, as long as external background remains ambiguous, demand for " safe currency" will increase.

Retail sales rose by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Trade deficit in Japan amounted to Y82.6 billion in March against the level of Y226.3 billion in February. This data is positive; other sections of the report also demonstrated that exports rose by 5.9% y/y last month, imports increased by 10.5% y/y.

Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%. Consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 40.3 points in March against the level of 39.9 points in February. It is a good indicator which gives grounds to expect "new shoots" in the economy of the country.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Japan last week was rather quiet. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank disagreed with the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimury, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, the major risk factor is - overall slowdown in the world economy.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to the top and is now in the positive area; however it is moving along the signal line, while volume are very low, and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is moving towards oversold zone, maintaining a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 0.9110, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9100 and 0.9080. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Macro-economic situation in Switzerland has not changed by this morning.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank, a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's view on monetary policy remains unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level at 1.20, assumption about probability, that pegging level of Franc to Euro will go to 1.25, is getting more persistent in the market.

So, after three -month break Swiss National Bank has a new governor now- this is Mr. Jordan who has performed the duties since January when Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already said that he would continue to adhere to the old monetary policy and is going to preserve the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc is still overvalued.

In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believes that considering problems in the Eurozone, it is still required to maintain a peg of Franc with the Euro.

Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland, however it shows recovering trend. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales increased by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will amount from -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6120, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6130 and 1.6150. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Macro-economic background in the UK is quiet on Monday morning.

The data on retail sales, released on Friday, was beneficial of the GBP: thus, volume of retail sales in March increased by 1.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) against the forecast of growth of 0.4%. This was much above expectations.

Information, that rating agency A&P has confirmed rating of Great Britain at the top level of AAA, has become a new catalyst for growth last week. Prime-Minister Cameron commented that the rates should be kept low in order to be able to stimulate economic growth.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Tucker said earlier that inflation in the UK is still above the target level; it is also highly possible that CPI will definitely remain above 3% in Q2 or probably through the whole period of the second half of 2012. At the same time, Tucker did not rule out that due to construction sector, economic growth in Q1 can be zero.

Consumer confidence GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy.

The data released earlier showed that level of retail sales in the UK increased due to warm weather and demand for clothing in March. Thus, index in the shops, which were opened less than one year ago, rose by 1.3% y/y in March, while the index went down in January and February. However, it is worth noting that reaction of the Bank of England to this statistics was not very enthusiastic. The rise in unemployment and high oil prices can impede growth in demand.

According to representative of the Bank of England Mr. Posen, there is evidence, indicating positive momentum of growth. Monetary politician believes that inflation will not exceed target level of 2% until the end of this year. At the same time, levels of consumer confidence, affected by weak data on GDP, is a cause for concern.

It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed rose by 3.6 thousand.

By 8.20 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3193 against closing session level of 1.3218 on Friday.

The news that reserves of the International Monetary Fund can be increased by $430 billion holds the Euro back from sales. This decision was adopted by members G20 last weekend. Totally the IMF needs expansion of the reserves by $500 billion; therefore the agreed amount seems optimal at the moment

However, the USD is gaining strength in advance of the meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve which will be held on 24-25 April.

The day is going to be quiet in terms of macro-statistics; investors will be interested in the data from Europe in the afternoon. There is no news on the USA on Monday.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3120-1.3220 at the trading session on Monday.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0350 the pair will go back to 1.0360 and 1.0380. If aggressive sellers will be back in the pair, the target for sale will be at the level of 1.0300.

It became known today that import price index in Australia fell by 1.2% q/q in Q1 against the forecast of -0.6% q/q. At the same time, export prices fell to the lowest level since Q4 2010.

Theoretically, decline in export prices was caused by reduction in price for crude ore extracted in Australia and fall in the price for metal scrap. At the same time, slump in imports was caused by expensive AUD.

Prime Minister of Australia Julia Gillard said on Thursday that government is still determined to preserve budget surplus. It is very important for Australia, especially taking into account that binds with China are very strong.

It became known earlier that employment rate in Australia increased by 44 thousand in February against expectations of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

Minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia held in April indicated that due to slowdown in economic growth, chances of lowering interest rate this year have increased. The documents also stated that monetary politicians had lowered their forecasts for economic growth in the country. It also specified that if decline in inflation would be more significant, the RBA would be forced to commence further softening of the monetary policy. Next report on inflation will be released on 24 April; it will show CPI for Q1.

It became known earlier that leading indicator index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to 284.2 points against preliminary expectations of growth of 0.6%. At the same time, growth rate amounted to 2.4% against predictions of 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac commented that negative dynamics in the growth rate over the past six months does not help to raise enthusiasm about prospects and experts do not expect improvements in the nearest future. In general, current indexes meet expectations of the Australian economic development in 2012 (3%). However, growth rate of GDP remains below trend.

The Reserve Bank of Australia stated earlier that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, despite the fact that access to funding has become much easier for many banks. The RBA especially emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slowdown in the global economy can adversely affect Australian economic system.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and continues to go down, maintaining a signal for moderate sales. Stochastic Oscillator has come into overbought zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.60 the pair USD/JPY will continue to strengthen and will go to 81.70 and 81.90. Consolidation near the current levels is possible at the end of the week.

Apparently the JPY has had "corrected" sufficiently, moving away from local highs in order to stop sales.

Trade deficit in Japan amounted to Y82.6 billion in March against the level of Y226.3 billion in February. This data is positive; other sections of the report also demonstrated that exports rose by 5.9% y/y last month, imports increased by 10.5% y/y.

Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%. Consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 40.3 points in March against the level of 39.9 points in February. It is a good indicator which gives grounds to expect "new shoots" in the economy of the country.

Retail sales rose by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimury, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, the major risk factor is - overall slowdown in the world economy.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Japan last week was rather quiet. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank disagreed with the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to the top and is now in the positive area; however it is moving along the signal line and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone. It has almost merged with the signal line and is ready to enter into oversold zone, maintaining a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 0.9130 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9120 and 0.9100. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Macro-economic background is quiet in Switzerland on Friday morning.

Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland, however it shows recovering trend. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales increased by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will amount from -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's view on monetary policy remains unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level at 1.20, assumption about probability, that pegging level of Franc to Euro will go to 1.25, is getting more persistent in the market.

So, after three months break Swiss National Bank has a new governor- this is Mr. Jordan who has performed the duties since January when Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already said that he would continue to adhere to the old monetary policy and is going to preserve the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc is still overvalued.

In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank members believe that considering problems in the Eurozone, pegging of Franc to the Euro is still required.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it is moving along the signal line again, while volumes are average and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6070 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6080 and 1.6100. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

According to representative of the Bank of England Mr. Pousen, there is evidence, indicating positive momentum of growth. Monetary politician believes that inflation will not exceed target level of 2% until the end of this year. At the same time, levels of consumer confidence, affected by weak data on GDP, is a cause for concern.

It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed rose by 3.6 thousand.

Information, that rating agency A&P has confirmed rating of Great Britain at the top level of AAA, has become a new catalyst for growth. Prime-Minister Cameron commented that the rates should be kept low in order to be able to stimulate economic growth.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Tucker said earlier that inflation in the UK is still above the target level; it is also highly possible that CPI will definitely remain above 3% in Q2 or probably through the whole period of the second half of 2012. At the same time, Tucker did not rule out that due to construction sector, economic growth in Q1 can be zero.

Consumer confidence GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy.

The data released earlier showed that level of retail sales in the UK increased due to warm weather and demand for clothing in March. Thus, index in the shops, which were opened less than one year ago, rose by 1.3% y/y in March, while the index went down in January and February. However, it is worth noting that reaction of the Bank of England to this statistics was not very enthusiastic. The rise in unemployment and high oil prices can impede growth in demand.

By 8.30 Moscow time the Euro was at 1.3144 against yesterday's closing session level of 1.3136.

The pair Euro/USD does not have special reasons to grow- the U.S. statistics released yesterday was very weak. Investors are getting concerned that a new round of debt problems may start in Eurozone.

Moreover, Spanish auction, which took place yesterday, went on smoothly, the country was able to place all planned volume of bonds. However it does not reassured the market: yields of ten-year old bonds continue to rise.

Macro-economic calendar is uneventful today; therefore external background will remain the main driver for movement in the market.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3070-1.3170 at the trading session on Friday.

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.66 roubles today (+2 kopeks).

Therefore, stability in the currency pairs with the Rouble was caused by waiting attitude of the market and lack of clear trading ideas among investors.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.40-29.55 Roubles for the USD at the trading session on Thursday.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9900 the pair will go to 0.9890 and 0.9870. Consolidation near current levels is possible.

It became known yesterday that the Bank of Canada is going to gradually raise interest rate throughout 2014 and in general it is consistent with the policy that the regulator has outlined earlier.

Meeting of the Bank of Canada was very lively, despite the fact that the Regulator had left interest rate at the level of 1% per annum, as expected. However, comments which were made by the Governor of the Bank of Canada Mr. Carney were unexpected for the market. Thus, monetary politician noted that the rise in the interest rate can be a reasonable decision in the future, as both inflation and economic growth may accelerate. According to the forecasts made by the Bank of Canada, economy of the country will have maximal productivity starting from the first part of 2013.

Unemployment rate in Canada fell to 7.2% (-0.2%) in March. Level of employed increased by 82 thousand. Note, that it is a positive trend, as unemployment rate in February fell by 0.2%, although number of jobs did not rise significantly in the last month of winter. In addition, permits to construct in Canada rose by 7.5% m/m in February to C$6.51 billion against the fall of 11.4% in January.

The head of the Bank of Canada Mr. Carney noted earlier that economy of the country is growing slightly above the forecast and government has number of tools in order to protect housing market from overheating. However, instruments of monetary policy will be used only as the last resort.

According to the data released earlier, GDP in Canada rose by 0.1% m/m (+1.75% y/y) in January versus revised value of +0.5% m/m (+1.9% y/y) which in general agreed with the forecast. Previous statistics demonstrated that economic growth in Canada slowed down: real GDP amounted to +0.4% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.3% m/m. All in all Canadian economy grew only by 0.4% in the last quarter last year against +1.0% in Q3.

It became known earlier that sales in the secondary housing market rose by 2.5% m/m (+1.6% y/y) in March, which a good indication.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0360 the pair will go back to 1.0370 and 1.0380. If aggressive sellers will be back in the pair, the target for sale will be at the level of 1.0300.

Prime Minister of Australia Julia Gillard said on Thursday that government is still determined to preserve budget surplus. It is very important for Australia, especially taking into account that binds with China are very strong.

It became known this morning that leading indicator index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to 284.2 points against preliminary expectations of growth of 0.6%. At the same time, growth rate amounted to 2.4% against predicted 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac commented that negative dynamics in the growth rate over the past six months does not raise enthusiasm about prospects and experts do not expect improvements in the nearest future. In general, current indexes meet expectations of the Australian economic development in 2012 (3%), however growth rate of GDP remains below trend.

The Reserve Bank of Australia stated earlier that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, despite the fact that access to funding has become much easier for many banks. The RBA especially emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slowdown in the global economy can adversely affect Australian economic system.

It became known earlier that employment rate in Australia increased by 44 thousand in February against expectations of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

Minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia held in April indicated that with slowdown in economic growth, chances of lowering interest rate this year have increased. The documents also said that monetary politicians had lowered their forecasts for economic growth in the country. It also specified that if decline in inflation will be more significant, the RBA will have to commence further softening of the monetary policy. 
Next report on inflation will be released on 24 April; it will show CPI for Q1.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and continues to go down, maintaining a signal for moderate sales. Stochastic Oscillator grows in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal, approaching overbought zone.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.50 the pair USD/JPY will go to 81.60 and 81.80.

It became known this morning that trade deficit in Japan amounted to Y82.6 billion in March against the level of Y226.3 billion in February. This data is positive, the report also demonstrated that exports rose by 5.9% y/y last month, imports increased by 10.5% y/y.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimury, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, the major risk factor is - overall slowdown in the world economy.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Japan last week was rather quiet. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank disagreed with the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy.

Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%.

Consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 40.3 points in March against the level of 39.9 points in February. It is a good indicator which gives another ground for expectations of "new shoots" in the economy of the country.

Levels of bank lending continue to increase in Japan, which is a positive factor, and this has been proved by statistics. In addition, number of orders for industrial rates unexpectedly rose in February which is also a good indication.

This data is perfectly consistent with the previous indexes: retail sales increased by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to the top and is now in the positive area, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is moving along the signal line in the neutral zone not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 0.9170 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9180 and 0.9210. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

So, after three month break Swiss National Bank has a new governor now- it is Mr. Jordan who has performed the duties since January when Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already said that he would continue to adhere to the old monetary policy and is going to preserve the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc is still overvalued.

In general, the SNB supports this view of the new governor. They believe that pegging of Franc to the Euro is still required, considering problems in the Eurozone

Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland, however it shows recovering trend. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales increased by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will amount from -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's view on monetary policy remains unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level at 1.20, assumption about probability of shifting pegging level of Franc to Euro at 1.25 is getting more persistent in the market.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it is moving along the signal line again, while volumes are average and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6020 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6030 и 1.6050. Consolidation near the achieved levels is possible.

It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed rose by 3.6 thousand.

Information, that rating agency A&P has confirmed rating of Great Britain at the top level of AAA, has become a new catalyst for growth. Prime-Minister Cameron commented that the rates should be kept low in order to be able to stimulate economic growth.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Tucker said yesterday that inflation in the UK is still above the target level; it is also highly possible that CPI will remain above 3% in Q2 or probably through the whole period of the second half of 2012. At the same time, Tucker did not rule out that due to construction sector economic growth in Q1 can be zero.

The data released earlier showed that level of retail sales in the UK increased due to warm weather and demand for clothing in March. Thus, index in the shops, which were opened less than one year ago, rose by 1.3% y/y in March, while the index went down in January and February. However, it is worth noting that reaction of the Bank of England to this statistics was not very enthusiastic. The rise in unemployment and high oil prices can impede growth in demand.

Consumer confidence GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy.

Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England are going to be released before the end of this week, as well as the data on CPI and retail sales. CPI и розничным продажам. In addition, it is expected that the UK GDP for Q1 will be made public on 25 April. GDP fell by 0.3% on quarterly basis (+0.5% y/y) in Q4, while economists had predicted less significant decline of 0.2% q/q.

By 8.50 Moscow time the Euro was at 1.3112 against yesterday's closing level at 1.3121.

Investors are waiting for new Spanish auctions today France is also preparing to participate in the debt market.

In addition, American statistics on a number of claims for unemployment benefits over week, which is scheduled for release this afternoon, will represent special interest to investors.

In general, major pair will continue to fluctuate in the narrow range.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3070-1.3180 at the trading session on Thursday.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9880 the pair will go to 0.9870 and 0.9850.Consolidation near current levels is possible.

Meeting of the Bank of Canada was very lively, although he Regulator has left interest rate at the level of 1% per annum, as expected. Nevertheless, Nevertheless, comments which were made by the Governor of the Bank of Canada Mr. Carney were unexpected for the market.

Thus, monetary politician noted that the rise in the interest rate can be a reasonable decision in the future, as both inflation and economic growth may accelerate.

According to the forecasts made by the Bank of Canada, economy of the country will have maximal productivity starting from the first part of 2013.

According to the data released earlier, GDP in Canada rose by 0.1% m/m (+1.75% y/y) in January versus revised value of +0.5% m/m (+1.9% y/y) which in general agreed with the forecast. Previous statistics demonstrated that economic growth in Canada slowed down: real GDP amounted to +0.4% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.3% m/m. All in all Canadian economy grew only by 0.4% in the last quarter last year against +1.0% in Q3.
It became known earlier that sales in the secondary housing market of the country increased by 2.5% m/m (+1.6% y/y) in March, which is a good indicator.

Unemployment rate in Canada fell to 7.2% (-0.2%) in March. Level of employed increased by 82 thousand. Note, that it is a positive trend, as unemployment rate in February fell by 0.2%, although number of jobs did not rise significantly in the last month of winter. In addition, permits to construct in Canada rose by 7.5% m/m in February to C$6.51 billion against the fall of 11.4% in January.
The head of the bank of Canada Mr. Carney noted earlier that economy of the country is growing slightly above the forecast and government has number of tools in order to protect housing market from overheating. However, monetary policy tools will be used only as the last resort.

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.62 roubles today (-3 kopeks).

Such minor fluctuations in the currency pair are associated with the lack of any significant movement in the trading floors. Investors are determining directions for further trading.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.40-29.55 Roubles for the USD at the trading session on Wednesday.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0380 the pair will go back to 1.0360 and 1.0350. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

It became known this morning that leading indicator index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to 284.2 points against preliminary expectations of growth of 0.6%. At the same time, growth rate amounted to 2.4% against predicted 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac commented that negative dynamics in the growth rate over the past six months does not raise enthusiasm about prospects and experts do not expect improvements in the nearest future. In general, current indexes meet expectations of the Australian economic development in 2012 (3%), however growth rate of GDP remains below trend.

Minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia held in April noted that slow down of economic growth increased chances that interest rate will be decreased this year. The documents also said that monetary politicians had lowered their forecasts for economic growth in the country. It also specified that if decline in inflation will be more evident, the RBA will have to commence further softening of the monetary policy.

Next report on inflation will be released on 24 April; it will show CPI for Q1.

The Reserve Bank of Australia stated earlier that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slowdown in the global economy can affect Australian economic system adversely. It became known earlier that employment rate in Australia increased by 44 thousand in February against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area, while volumes are low and is giving a sell signal. It is prepared to break through the signal line from top to bottom. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.30 the pair USD/JPY will go to 81.40 and 81.60.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimury, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required.

Monetary politician stressed today that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, the major risk factor is overall slowdown in the world economy.

Consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 40.3 points in March against the level of 39.9 points in February. It is a good indicator which gives another ground for expectations of "new shoots" in the economy of the country.

Levels of bank lending continue to increase in Japan, which is a positive factor, and this has been proved by statistics. In addition, number of orders for industrial rates unexpectedly rose in February which is also a good indication.

This data is perfectly consistent with the previous indexes: retail sales increased by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Japan last week was rather quiet. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank contradicted the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy. Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to the top and is now in the positive area, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down sluggishly in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 0.9170 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9180 and 0.9200. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Marco-economic situation in Switzerland seems stable. External environment determines trend in Franc rate.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland, however it shows recovering trend. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales increased by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will amount from -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's view on monetary policy remains unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level at 1.20, assumption about probability of shifting pegging level of Franc to Euro at 1.25 is getting more persistent in the market.

Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. However other data was weak: retails sales rose only by 0.8% y/y in February against previous value of +4.7% y/y and the forecast of growth of 2.0% y/y. It became known earlier that unemployment rate was at the level of 3.1% in March, as expected. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points. CPI rose by 0.6% m/m (-1.0% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. However, Franc was more focused on the external background and ignored this statistics.

Last week Mr. Jordan from Swiss National Bank explained that Central Bank is ready to make greater efforts to maintain monetary stability after markets' attacks against the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/CHF. He also emphasized that opinions about lack of determination in SNB are incorrect. According to him, CB is still prepared to buy currency in unlimited quantities.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it started to decline moderately again and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up slowly in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5930 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5940 and 1.5950. If aggressive buyers will be back in the pair, target for sale will be at the level of 1.5855.

Investors continue to be guided by the situation in Europe.

In the nearest future, however, the GBP will receive momentum to start movement from its own country: minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England are scheduled for the releases this week, as well as the data on labour market, CPI and retail sales index. In addition to this, it is expected that the UK GDP for Q1 will be made public on 25 April. GDP fell by 0.3% on quarterly basis (+0.5% y/y) in Q4, while economists had predicted less significant decline of 0.2% q/q.

The data released earlier showed that level of retail sales in the UK increased due to warm weather and demand for clothing in March. Thus, index in the shops, which were opened less than one year ago, rose by 1.3% y/y in March, while the index went down in January and February. However, it is worth noting that reaction of the Bank of England to this statistics was not very enthusiastic. The rise in unemployment and high oil prices can impede growth in demand. House price index Rightmove in the UK rose by 2.9% m/m (+3.4% y/y) in April. The Pound has not responded to this statistics and continues to watch over external background where risk aversion is still preserved, due to unfavourable environment. House price index RICS in the UK rose to -10 points in March against the level of -13 points in February. This is the highest level of the index since June 2010.

Unemployment rate amounted to 5.0% in February; number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weakness in the sector prevents economic recovery of the country. PMI Markit/CIPS in the manufacturing sector rose to 52.1 points in March against revised value of 51.5 points. This data gave good support to the currency. The index was at highs since May 2011 and the main driver of growth was the volume of new orders: 52.7 points against the level of 50.5 points earlier. This index is also maximal-at the peaks since March last year.

Consumer confidence GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy.

By 8.55 Moscow time the Euro was at 1.3116 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3126.

In general, external background is quite stable at today's trading session. Yesterday, International Monetary Fund revised upward forecasts for world economic growth and investors acclaimed this news enthusiastically.

In addition, Spanish auction, which took place yesterday, had rather good outcome- the country was able to place in the debt market all planned volume of Treasury bonds and final sum was above the upper limit of the range (more than 3 billion euro).

However, investors today await information on the U.S. labor market, which is scheduled for the release tomorrow, assuming that the data will be strong.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3050-1.3150 at the trading session on Wednesday.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9985 the pair will go to 0.9995 and 1.0020. Consolidation near current levels is possible.

The pair actively reacts to the changes in the external background. Sentiments of the participants vary very rapidly today. 

It became known earlier that sales in the secondary housing market of the country increased by 2.5% m/m (+1.6% y/y) in March, which is a good indicator.

According to the data released earlier, GDP in Canada rose by 0.1% m/m (+1.75% y/y) in January versus revised value of +0.5% m/m (+1.9% y/y) which in general agreed with the forecast. Previous statistics demonstrated that economic growth in Canada slowed down: real GDP amounted to +0.4% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.3% m/m. All in all Canadian economy grew only by 0.4% in the last quarter last year against +1.0% in Q3.

Unemployment rate in Canada fell to 7.2% (-0.2%) in March. Level of employed increased by 82 thousand. Note, that it is a positive trend, as unemployment rate in February fell by 0.2%, although number of jobs did not rise significantly in the last month of winter. In addition, permits to construct in Canada rose by 7.5% m/m in February to C$6.51 billion against the fall of 11.4% in January.

The head of the bank of Canada Mr. Carney noted earlier that economy of the country is growing slightly above the forecast and government has number of tools in order to protect housing market from overheating. However, monetary policy tools will be used only as the last resort. Earlier, Mr. Carney stressed that current interest rate is consistent with monetary situation. Recall that in the middle of January the Bank of Canada left interest rate at the level of 1.0% per annum, which was not a surprise to the market. The bank of Canada expressed concern about the condition of the housing sector, according to the regulator, 10% decline in this sector can lead to decrease in consumption of 1%, as the major volume of mortgage loans was used to finance consumption.

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.77 roubles today (+9 kopeks).

Therefore, expectations of news from Europe along with sales of "black gold" in the world negatively affect force balance in the Ruble's pairs.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.55-29.75 Roubles for the USD.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0310 the pair will go back to 1.0300 and 1.0280.

According to the released minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia in April, it is more probable that interest rate may be decreased this year. The document stated that monetary politicians had lowered their forecasts for economic growth in the country. It also specified that if decline in inflation will be more evident, the RBA will have to commence further softening of the monetary policy.

Next report on inflation will be released on 24 April; it will show CPI for Q1.

The Reserve Bank of Australia stated earlier that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slowdown in the global economy can affect Australian economic system adversely.

Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia had mixed outcome: interest rate was left at the previous level of 4.25% per annum; however it was follow-up comments that made investors feel anxious. Thus, the regulator has stressed that the RBA is able to lower the rate if macro-economic data will show slowdown in domestic demand. The RBA also emphasized that European negative impact is very significant.

It became known earlier that employment rate in Australia increased by 44 thousand in February against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

Consumer lending WESTPAC-MI in Australia fell by 1.6% m/m in April to the level of 94.5 points. At the same time, mortgage lending declined by 2.5% m/m against expectations of fall of 4.2% in February. Activity index AiG in the service sector rose to 47.0 points in March against the fall of 5.3 points in February. Trade balance amounted to -А$0.48 billion in February against the level of +A$1.3 billion in January.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area, while volumes are low and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and maintains a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.40 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.30 and 80.10.

The data released this morning showed that consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 40.3 points in March against the level of 39.9 points in February. It is a good indicator which gives another ground for expectations of "new shoots" in the economy of the country.

Sales in Japanese supermarkets rose by 14.1% y/y in March against the fall of 0.4% in February.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Japan last week was rather quiet. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank contradicted the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy.

Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%. Levels of bank lending continue to increase in Japan, which is a positive factor, and this has been proved by statistics. In addition, number of orders for industrial goods unexpectedly rose in February which is also a good indication.

Statistics released earlier showed that current account balance in Japan amounted to Y1.178 billion in February. In addition, index of economic observers rose to 51.8 points in March against the level of 45.9 points in February. The data indicates that positive trend in the Japanese economy is still preserved.

This data is perfectly consistent with the previous indexes: Retail sales increased by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to the top and is now in the positive area, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 0.9180 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9200 and 0.9240. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. However other data was weak: retails sales rose only by 0.8% y/y in February against previous value of +4.7% y/y and the forecast of growth of 2.0% y/y. It became known earlier that unemployment rate was at the level of 3.1% in March, as expected. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points. CPI rose by 0.6% m/m (-1.0% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. However, Franc was more focused on the external background and ignored this statistics.

Last week Mr. Jordan from Swiss National Bank explained that Central Bank is ready to make greater efforts to maintain monetary stability after markets' attacks against the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/CHF. He also emphasized that opinions about lack of determination in SNB are incorrect. According to him, CB is still prepared to buy currency in unlimited quantities.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland, however it shows recovering trend. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales increased by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will amount from -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's view on monetary policy remains unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to protect the level of 1.20, supposition about probability of shifting pegging level of Franc to Euro at 1.25, is getting more persistent in the market.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it resumed moderate decline and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5860, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5840 and 1.5790. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Attention of traders will be focused on developments in Europe.

However, the GBP will receive momentum to start movement from its own country: minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England are scheduled for the releases this week, as well as the data on labour market, CPI and retail sales index.

In addition to this, it is expected that the UK GDP for Q1 will be made public on 25 April. The UK GDP fell by 0.3% on quarterly basis (+0.5% y/y) in Q4, while economists had predicted less significant decline of 0.2% q/q.

House price index Rightmove in the UK rose by 2.9% m/m (+3.4% y/y) in April. The Pound has not responded to this statistics and continues to watch over external background where risk aversion is still preserved due to unfavourable environment. House price index RICS in the UK rose to -10 points in March against the level of -13 points in February. This is the highest level of the index since June 2010.

The data released earlier showed that level of retail sales in the UK increased due to warm weather and demand for clothing in March. Thus, index in the shops which were open less than one year ago rose by 1.3% y/y in March, while the index in February went down. However, it is worth noting that reaction of the Bank of England to this statistics was not very enthusiastic. The rise in unemployment and high oil prices can impede growth in demand.

It is interesting that against this background, consumer confidence in the UK GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy.

Unemployment rate amounted to 5.0% in February; number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weakness in the sector prevents economic recovery of the country. PMI Markit/CIPS in the manufacturing sector rose to 52.1 points in March against revised value of 51.5 points. This data gave good support to the currency. The index was at highs since May 2011 and the main driver of growth was the volume of new orders: 52.7 points against the level of 50.5 points earlier. This index is also maximal-at the peaks since March last year.

By 9.00 Moscow time the Euro was at 1.3114 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3141.

The pair EUR/USD had been actively sold out in the trading session in the early afternoon yesterday. The pair even reached monthly lows, however in the late afternoon, due to good American statistics on retail sales, the pair regained from sales.

This morning the Euro is in the difficult situation again because of the auction, which will be held in Spain on Tuesday. This country of Eurozone is under scrutiny of the market lately.

German statistics will be released this afternoon and American statistics will draw attention of players tonight.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3050-1.3150 at the trading session on Tuesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is moving along the signal line in the negative area and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator started to go down in the neutral zone, indicating beginning of sales.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8200 the pair will go to 0.8190 and 0.8170.

The NZD rate is a target of bears due to mass risk aversion at the beginning of the week. Investors are analyzing developments in China and Europe and come to unfavorable conclusions

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% in March, as expected. Representatives of RBNZ noted in comments that there was no reason to revise interest rate at the moment.

House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 this year against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011.

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP had almost stopped its growth, however started to revive later. Most likely, the index will be weaker in Q4.

According to the data released this morning, activity index in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February. In addition, representative of the Bank of New Zealand Mr. Inglish noted last Thursday that positions of the NZD look quite strong.

Permits to construct fell by 6.7% m/m in February against revised level of +8.3% m/m in January. Statistics released earlier showed that business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, against the level of 28.0 points in February. The data helped to hold NZD from significant sales. The boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in the business confidence.

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.81 roubles today (+14 kopeks).

Thus, sales in EUR/USD at the currency market, which have led to monthly lows, have adverse affect on the positions of the Russian currency.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.70-29.90 Rouble/USD at the trading session on Monday.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0315 the pair will go back to 1.0300 and 1.0280.

If on Friday, positions of the AUD were knocked down by the data on Chinese GDP for Q1, which fell below expectations; today, information on expansion of the exchange rate band in China will impact the pair AUD/USD.

Consumer lending WESTPAC-MI in Australia fell by 1.6% m/m in April to the level of 94.5 points. At the same time mortgage lending declined by 2.5% m/m against expectations of fall of 4.2% in February. Activity index AiG in the service sector rose to 47.0 points in March against the fall of 5.3 points in February. Trade balance amounted to -А$0.48 billion in February against the level of +A$1.3 billion in January.

The Reserve Bank of Australia stated earlier that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can have a significant impact on Australian economic system.

Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia had mixed outcome: interest rate was left at the previous level of 4.25% per annum; however it was follow-up comments that made investors feel anxious. Thus, the regulator stressed that the RBA is able to lower the rate if macro-economic data will show slowdown in domestic demand. The RBA also emphasized that European negative impact is very significant.

It became known earlier that employment rate in Australia increased by 44 thousand in February against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%. This statistics has become a trial of stability for the market: it is interesting to know whether expectations of decline in the interest rate will be revised in the next meeting of the RBA or not.
We would remind that head of RBA Mr. Stevens did not exclude that some actions in monetary policy will be taken in case if slump in economic growth will cause slowdown in inflation and will spur unemployment.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area, while volumes are low and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and maintains a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.50 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.40 and 80.20.

Statistics released on Monday showed that sales in Japanese supermarkets rose by 14.1% y/y in March against the fall of 0.4% in February. Market has ignored this data as speculative influence on the Yen is very strong at the moment.

Levels of bank lending continue to increase in Japan, which is a positive factor, and this has been proved by statistics. In addition, number of orders for industrial goods unexpectedly rose in February which is also a good indication.

Statistics released earlier showed that current account balance in Japan amounted to Y1.178 billion in February. In addition, index of economic observers rose to 51.8 points in March against the level of 45.9 points in February. The data indicates that positive trend in the Japanese economy is still preserved.

This data is perfectly consistent with the previous indexes: Retail sales increased by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Japan last week have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank contradicted the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy. 
Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to the top and is now in the positive area, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 0.9240 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9250 and 0.9270. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Investors will await the data on producer price and imports in Switzerland which is scheduled for the release today.

It became known earlier that unemployment rate was at the level of 3.1% in March, as expected.

Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points. CPI rose by 0.6% m/m (-1.0% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. However, Franc was more focused on the external background and ignored this statistics.

Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. However other data was weak: retails sales rose only by 0.8% y/y in February against previous value of +4.7% y/y and the forecast of growth of 2.0% y/y.

Despite strong determination of SNB to protect the level of 1.20, a talk about chances of shifting pegging level of Franc to Euro at 1.25, is getting louder in the market.

Last week Mr. Jordan from Swiss National Bank clarified that Central Bank is ready to make greater efforts to maintain monetary stability after markets' attacks against the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/CHF. He also emphasized that opinions about lack of determination in SNB are incorrect. According to him, CB is still prepared to buy currency in unlimited quantities.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland, however it shows recovering trend. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales increased by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will amount from -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of )%. In general, SNB's view on monetary policy remains unchanged.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it stopped decline and has shifted into sideways movement not giving a clear signal, while volumes are average. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.583, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5820 and 1.5790. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Statistics released this morning showed that house price index Rightmove in the UK rose by 2.9% m/m (+3.4% y/y) in April. The Pound has not responded to this statistics and continues to watch over external background where risk aversion is still preserved due to unfavourable environment.

House price index RICS in the UK rose to -10 points in March against the level of -13 points in February. This is the highest level of the index since June 2010.

GDP in the UK fell by 0.3%on quarterly basis (+0.55 Y/Y) in Q4, while economists expected less significant fall of 0.2% q/q. Balance of current account in the UK was at the level of -stg8.451 billion in Q4 against the forecast of -stg8.4 billion. At the same time volume of consumer expenditures at the end of 2011 increased only by 0.4% on quarterly basis (+0.5% q/q on quarterly basis).

Unemployment rate amounted to 5.0% in February; number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weakness in the sector prevents economic recovery of the country. PMI Markit/CIPS in the manufacturing sector rose to 52.1 points in March against revised value of 51.5 points. This data gave good support to the currency. The index was at highs since May 2011 and the main driver of growth was the volume of new orders: 52.7 points against the level of 50.5 points earlier. This index is also maximal-at the peaks since March last year.

The data released earlier showed that level of retail sales in the UK increased due to warm weather and demand for clothing in March. Thus, index in the shops which were open less than one year ago rose by 1.3% y/y in March, while the index in February went down. However, it is worth noting that reaction of the Bank of England to this statistics was not very enthusiastic. The rise in unemployment and high oil prices can impede growth in demand.

It is interesting that against this background, consumer confidence in the UK GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy.

By 8.45 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3021 against closing level of 1.3076 on Friday.

At the end of the week, investors reacted to statistics on American inflation which rose in March as per the forecast. However, this morning external background is negative: on the one hand, there was news about unrest in Kabul, on the other hand, safari of the king of Spain raised a storm of protest among people.

Spain is going to participate in the lending market again, placing treasury bonds. The yield of the securities is already rising, which indicates high level of risk.

This afternoon, investors will wait for statistics on the U.S. retail sales.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.2980-1.3090 at the beginning of the week.

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.62 roubles today.

Thus, low fluctuation in the currency pairs were caused by sluggish activity in the global capital markets at the end of the week and a large block of statistics which needs to be estimated and analyzed by investors.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.30-29.50 Rouble/USD at the trading session on Friday.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0360 the pair will go back to 1.0350 and 1.0330.

Statistics from China showed decline in GDP in Q1; this information has a negative effect on the AUD investors; Australian economy has strong links with Chinese economy and slowdown in the progress of China negatively affects economy of Green Continent.

It became known yesterday that employment rate in Australia increased by 44 thousand in February against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%. This statistics has become a trial of stability for the market: it is interesting to know whether expectations of decline in the interest rate will be revised in the next meeting of the RBA or not.

We would remind that head of RBA Mr. Stevens did not exclude that some actions in monetary policy will be taken in case if decline in economic growth slows down inflation and spurs unemployment.

Statistics released in the middle of the week demonstrated that consumer lending WESTPAC-MI in Australia fell by 1.6% m/m in April to the level of 94.5 points. At the same time mortgage lending declined by 2.5% m/m against expectations of fall of 4.2% in February.

Activity index AiG in the service sector rose to 47.0 points in March against the fall of 5.3 points in February. Trade balance amounted to -А$0.48 billion in February against the level of +A$1.3 billion in January.

Earlier the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can have a significant impact on Australian economic system.

Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held earlier, had mixed outcome: interest rate was left at the previous level of 4.25% per annum; however it was follow-up comments that made investors feel anxious. Thus, the regulator stressed that the RBA is able to lower the rate if macro-economic data will show slowdown in domestic demand. The RBA also emphasized that European negative impact is very significant.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area, while volumes are low and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go out of the oversold zone and has begun to shape a buy signal

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.95 the pair USD/JPY will go to 81.00 and 81.30. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Situation in Japan is quite today and attention in the market is focused on the Chinese statistics.

Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Japan, which finished this week, was rather quiet. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank contradicted the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy.

Levels of bank lending continue to increase in Japan, which is a positive factor, and this has been proved by statistics. In addition, number of orders for industrial goods unexpectedly rose in February which is also a good indication.

Statistics released earlier showed that current account balance in Japan amounted to Y1.178 billion in February. In addition, index of economic observers rose to 51.8 points in March against the level of 45.9 points in February. The data indicates that positive trend in the Japanese economy is still preserved.

This data is perfectly consistent with the previous indexes: Retail sales increased by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9130 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9140 and 0.9150. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Macro-economic situation has not changed much for Swiss Franc; however influence of the external background is not excluded.

It became known earlier that unemployment rate was at the level of 3.1% in March, as expected.

Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points. CPI rose by 0.6% m/m (-1.0% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. However, Franc was more focused on the external background and ignored this statistics.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of )%. In general, SNB's view on monetary policy remains unchanged.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland, however it shows recovering trend. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales increased by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will amount from -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. However other data was weak: retails sales rose only by 0.8% y/y in February against previous value of +4.7% y/y and the forecast of growth of 2.0% y/y.

Despite strong determination of SNB to protect the level of 1.20, a talk about chances of shifting level of pegging Franc to the Euro at 1.25, is getting louder in the market.
Mr. Jordan from Swiss National Bank said this week that Central Bank is ready to make greater efforts to maintain monetary stability after markets' attacks against the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/CHF. He also emphasized that opinions about lack of determination in SNB are incorrect. According to him, CB is still prepared to buy currency in unlimited quantities.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it is going down and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is coming into overbought zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5940 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5950 and 1.5970. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Situation in Great Britain has not changed significantly this morning; however the Pound reacts to changes in the investors' sentiments at the world capital markets, meanwhile investors are estimating statistics from China which was made known this morning.

House price index RICS in the UK rose to -10 points in March against the level of -13 points in February. This is the highest level of the index since June 2010.

The data released earlier showed that level of retail sales in the UK increased due to warm weather and demand for clothing in March. Thus, index in the shops which were open less than one year ago rose by 1.3% y/y in March, while the index in February went down. However, it is worth noting that reaction of the Bank of England to this statistics was not very enthusiastic. Increasing unemployment and high oil prices can affect the rise in demand.

It is interesting that against this background, consumer confidence in the UK GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy.

GDP in the UK fell by 0.3%on quarterly basis (+0.55 Y/Y) in Q4, while economists expected less significant fall of 0.2% q/q. Balance of current account in the UK was at the level of -stg8.451 billion in Q4 against the forecast of -stg8.4 billion. At the same time volume of consumer expenditures at the end of 2011 increased only by 0.4% on quarterly basis (+0.5% q/q on quarterly basis).

Unemployment rate amounted to 5.0% in February; number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weakness in the sector prevents economic recovery of the country. PMI Markit/CIPS in the manufacturing sector rose to 52.1 points in March against revised value of 51.5 points. This data gave good support to the currency. The index was at highs since May 2011 and the main driver of growth was the volume of new orders: 52.7 points against the level of 50.5 points earlier. This index is maximal as well-at the peaks since March last year.

By 8.50 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3170 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3185.

Rally in Euro/USD took place last night when representatives of the U.S. Federal reserve emphasized that American economy is recovering steadily. This surge of optimism has smoothed over the effect from weak statistics on the U.S. labour market.

Block of Chinese statistics was released today and market is estimating the data at the moment.

Thus, the players will make use of Chinese statistics today.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will be not go beyond the range of 1.3100-1.3200 at the trading session on Friday.

Trading session for the USD started at the level of 29.65 roubles which is 3 kopeks less than yesterday's closing level. The EUR started at the level of 38.9 roubles (+4 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.78 roubles today.

Thus, the Russian currency is not responsive to external background because market conditions remain mixed despite positive sentiments among investors this morning.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.55-29.7 5 Rouble/USD at the trading session on Thursday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is moving along the signal line in the negative area and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone and is not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8220 the pair will go to 0.8230 and 0.8250.

According to the data released this morning, activity index in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February.

In addition, representative of the Bank of New Zealand Mr. Inglish noted on Thursday that positions of the NZD look quite strong.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011.

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP almost has stopped its growth however started to revive later. Most likely, the index will be weaker in Q4.

Permits to construct fell by 6.7% m/m in February against revised level of +8.3% m/m in January. Statistics released earlier showed that business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, against the level of 28.0 points in February. The data keeps the NZD from significant sales. The boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in the business confidence.

The Reserve Bank kept interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% in March, as expected. RBNZ noted in comments that there was no reason to revise interest rate currently.

House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 this year against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0390 the pair will go back to 1.0400 and 1.0430.

It became known today that employment rate in Australia increased by 44 thousand in February against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

This statistics has become a sort of trial of firmness for the market: it is interesting to know whether expectations of decrease in the interest rate will be revised in the next meeting of the RBA or not.

We would remind that the head of RBA Mr. Stevens did not exclude that some actions in regards to monetary policy will be taken in case if decline in economic growth will slow down inflation and spurs unemployment.

Statistics released in the middle of the week demonstrated that consumer lending WESTPAC-MI in Australia fell by 1.6% m/m in April to the level of 94.5 points. At the same time mortgage lending declined by 2.5% m/m against expectations of fall of 4.2% in February.

Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held earlier, had mixed outcome: interest rate was left at the previous level of 4.25% per annum; however it was follow-up comments that made investors feel anxious. Thus, the regulator stressed that the RBA is able to lower the rate if macro-economic data will show slowdown in domestic demand. The RBA also emphasized that European negative impact is very significant.

Activity index AiG in the service sector rose to 47.0 points in March against the fall of 5.3 points in February. Trade balance amounted to -А$0.48 billion in February against the level of +A$1.3 billion in January.

Earlier the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can have a significant impact on Australian economic system. This statement was unfavourable for the AUD.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area, while volumes are low and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.00 the pair USD/JPY will go to 81.10 and 81.40. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Levels of bank lending continue to increase in Japan, which is a positive factor, and this has been proved by statistics. In addition, number of orders for industrial goods unexpectedly rose in February which is also a good indication.

Statistics released earlier showed that current account balance in Japan amounted to Y1.178 billion in February. In addition, index of economic observers rose to 51.8 points in March against the level of 45.9 points in February. The data indicates that positive trend in the Japanese economy is still preserved.

This data is perfectly consistent with the previous indexes: Retail sales increased by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%.

Regular meeting of the Bank of Japan, which finished this week, was rather quiet. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank contradicted the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9140 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9130 and 0.9110.

Despite SNB firmness to protect the level of 1.20, talk about a chance of shifting level of pegging Franc to the Euro at 1.25, is intensifying in the market.

Mr. Jordan from Swiss National Bank said this week that Central Bank is ready to make greater efforts to maintain monetary stability after markets' attacks against the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/CHF. He also emphasized that opinions about lack of determination in SNB are incorrect. According to him, CB is still prepared to buy currency in unlimited quantities.

Unemployment rate was at the level of 3.1% in March, as expected.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points. CPI rose by 0.6% m/m (-1.0% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. However, Franc was more focused on the external background and ignored this statistics.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of )%. In general, SNB's view on monetary policy remains unchanged.

Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. However other data was weak: retails sales rose only by 0.8% y/y in February against previous value of +4.7% y/y and the forecast of growth of 2.0% y/y.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland, however it shows recovering trend. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales increased by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will amount from -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it is going down and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5940 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5950 and 1.5970. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

House price index RICS in the UK rose to -10 points in March against the level of -13 points in February. This is the highest level of the index since June 2010.

GDP in the UK fell by 0.3%on quarterly basis (+0.55 Y/Y) in Q4, while economists expected less significant fall of 0.2% q/q. Balance of current account in the UK was at the level of -stg8.451 billion in Q4 against the forecast of -stg8.4 billion. At the same time volume of consumer expenditures at the end of 2011 increased only by 0.4% on quarterly basis (+0.5% q/q on quarterly basis).

Unemployment rate amounted to 5.0% in February; number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weakness in the sector prevents economic recovery of the country. PMI Markit/CIPS in the manufacturing sector rose to 52.1 points in March against revised value of 51.5 points. This data gave good support to the currency. The index was at highs since May 2011 and the main driver of growth was the volume of new orders: 52.7 points against the level of 50.5 points earlier. This index is maximal as well-at the peaks since March last year.

The data released today showed that level of retail sales in the UK increased due to warm weather and demand for clothing in March. Thus, index in the shops which were open less than one year ago rose by 1.3% y/y in March, while the index in February went down. However, it is worth noting that reaction of the Bank of England to this statistics was not very enthusiastic. Increasing unemployment and high oil prices can complicate the rise in demand.

It is interesting that against this background, consumer confidence in the UK GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy.

By 8.50 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3131 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3108.

Declaration made by Spain that reduction in GDP in the first quarter is not going to be as significant as expected by the market, have eased the nerves of players a little.

In general, there have not been fundamental changes in the external background today and growth in the major pair is largely attributed to corrective bounce.

Tonight, investors will watch over American statistics on employment.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will be not go beyond the range of 1.3080-1.3180 at the trading session on Thursday.

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.95 roubles today (+9 kopeks).

Thus, positions of the Rouble are getting weaker under pressure of pessimistic external environment.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.70-29.85 Rouble/USD at the trading session on Wednesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is moving along the signal line in the negative area and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone and is not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8180 the pair will go to 0.8200 and 0.82500. Otherwise the target for sale in the pair will be the level of 0.8150.

It became known today that business sentiment index NZIER in New Zealand was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 against 0 points in Q4 2011.

The report was quite good; however the pair NZD/USD has ignored it.

House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 this year against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive and indicates that employment sector, as one of the main supportive element for the economy, will be able to provide stability even under condition of pessimistic external influence. According to the data released earlier, prices for export in New Zealand increased by 1.7% q/q in Q4 versus the level of -4.0% in Q3. Import prices rose by 3.2% on quarterly basis for the same reporting period against the previous decline of 3.4%. Previous statistics showed that activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand rose by 1.3% in Q4 against the fall of 1.4% earlier.

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP almost has stopped its growth however started to revive later. Most likely, the index will be weaker in Q4.

Permits to construct fell by 6.7% m/m in February against revised level of +8.3% m/m in January. Statistics released earlier showed that business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, against the level of 28.0 points in February. The data keeps the NZD from significant sales. The boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in the business confidence.

The Reserve Bank kept interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% in March, as expected. RBNZ noted in comments that there was no reason to revise interest rate currently.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes down in the negative area, maintaining a sell signal, while volumes are high. Stochastic Oscillator went out of the oversold zone and is giving a buy signal at the moment.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0290 the pair will go back to 1.0300 and 1.0330. If external background deteriorates, the target for sale will be the level of 1.0250.

Statistics released in the middle of the week demonstrated that consumer lending WESTPAC-MI in Australia fell by 1.6% m/m in April to the level of 94.5 points.

At the same time mortgage lending showed decline of 2.5% m/m against expectations of fall of 4.2%.

Statistics released earlier showed that number of jobs in Australia increased by 0.7% q/q in December-February. Previous statistics demonstrated that unemployment rate in the country amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was held earlier, had mixed outcome: interest rate was left at the previous level of 4.25% per annum; however it was the tone of the follow-up comments that made investors feel anxious. Thus, the regulator stressed that the RBA is able to lower the rate if macro-economic data will show slowdown in domestic demand. The RBA also emphasized that European negative impact is very significant.

Activity index AiG in the service sector rose to 47.0 points in March against the fall of 5.3 points in February. Trade balance amounted to -А$0.48 billion in February against the level of +A$1.3 billion in January.

The Reserve Bank of Australia stated earlier that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can have a significant impact on Australian economic system. This statement was unfavourable for the AUD.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area, while volumes are low and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone, giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.70 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.60 and 80.40. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

The data released this morning showed that levels of bank lending continue to rise in the country, which is a positive factor. In addition, number of orders for industrial goods went up suddenly in February which is also a favourable signal.

A regular meeting of the Bank of Japan, which finished this week, was rather quiet. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system. In general, the views of the Bank contradicted the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy.

Statistics released earlier showed that current account balance in Japan amounted to Y1.178 billion in February. In addition, index of economic observers rose to 51.8 points in March against the level of 45.9 points in February. The data indicates that positive trend in the Japanese economy is still preserved.

This data is perfectly consistent with the previous indexes: Retail sales increased by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is going up moderately in the negative area and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is coming out of the overbought zone, giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9175 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9180 and 0.9200. If "bears" turn up in the pair, the target will become the level of 0.9130.

Mr. Jordan from Swiss National Bank said yesterday that Central Bank is ready to make greater efforts to maintain monetary stability after markets' attacks at 1.20 in the pair EUR/CHF. He also emphasized that opinions about lack of determination in SNB are incorrect. According to him, CB is still prepared to buy currency in unlimited quantities.

Statistics released on Tuesday showed that unemployment rate in Switzerland was at the level of 3.1% in March, as expected.

Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. However other data was weak: retails sales rose only by 0.8% y/y in February against previous value of +4.7% y/y and the forecast of growth of 2.0% y/y.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland, however it shows recovering trend. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales increased by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will amount from -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points. CPI rose by 0.6% m/m (-1.0% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. However, Franc was more focused on the external background and ignored this statistics.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of )%. In general, SNB's view on monetary policy remains unchanged.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it is going down and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is leaving oversold zone and is giving a buy signal now.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5880 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5590 and 1.5920. If aggressive sellers will be back in the pair the target will be the level of 1.5840.

The data released today showed that level of retail sales in the UK increased due to warm weather and demand for clothing in March. Thus, index in the shops which were open less than one year ago rose by 1.3% y/y in March, while the index in February went down.

It is worth noting that reaction of the Bank of England to this statistics was not very enthusiastic. Increasing unemployment and high oil prices can complicate the rise in demand.

It is interesting that against this background, consumer confidence in the UK GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy.

House price index RICS in the UK rose to -10 points in March against the level of -13 points in February. This is the highest level in the index since June 2010.

GDP in the UK fell by 0.3%on quarterly basis (+0.55 Y/Y) in Q4, while economists expected less significant fall of 0.2% q/q. Balance of current account in the UK was at the level of -stg8.451 billion in Q4 against the forecast of -stg8.4 billion. At the same time volume of consumer expenditures at the end of 2011 increased only by 0.4% on quarterly basis (+0.5% q/q on quarterly basis).

Unemployment rate amounted to 5.0% in February; number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weakness in the sector prevents economic recovery of the country. PMI Markit/CIPS in the manufacturing sector rose to 52.1 points in March against revised value of 51.5 points. This data gave good support to the currency. The index was at highs since May 2011 and the main driver of growth was the volume of new orders: 52.7 points against the level of 50.5 points earlier. This index is maximal as well-at the peaks since March last year.

By 8.20 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3089 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3081.

The major pair is in the medium term oversold channel at the moment and technical signals indicate different trends.

Investors aim to move away from risks and not to make purchases, as problematic countries of Eurozone do not provide steady positive indications about economic stabilization, at least temporary.

Market will continue to follow comments of the members of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.3050-1.3150 at the trading session on Wednesday.

With the start of the trading session at the currency section of the MICEX the Russian Rouble rate goes upward in pairing with the USD, amid recovery in the pair EUR/USD and relative stability in the external environment.

Trading session for the USD started at the level of 29.6 roubles which is 5 kopeks less than yesterday’s closing level. The EUR started at the level of 38.83 roubles (+8 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.75 roubles today.

Therefore, the Rouble regains some of the previous losses; however volumes of deals are still insignificant due to “wait and see” attitude of investors in the global capital markets.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.5-29.65 USD/RUR  at the trading session on Tuesday.

At the Forex currency market the New Zealand rate traded slightly downward on Tuesday which was obviously caused by the flow of Chinese statistics.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is moving along the signal line in the negative area and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator continues to go up moderately in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8220 the pair will go to 0.8240 and 0.8250.

Macro-economic background in New Zealand is stable.

The Reserve Bank kept interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% in March, as expected. RBNZ noted in the comments that there is no reason to revise interest rate at the moment.

House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 this year against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive and indicates that employment sector, as one of the main supportive element for the economy, will enable to provide stability even under condition of pessimistic external influence. According to the data released earlier, prices for export in New Zealand increased by 1.7% q/q in Q4 versus the level of -4.0% in Q3. Import prices rose by 3.2% on quarterly basis for the same reporting period against the previous decline of 3.4%. Previous statistics showed that activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand rose by 1.3% in Q4 against the fall of 1.4% earlier.   

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP almost has stopped its growth however started to revive later. Most likely, the index will be weaker in Q4.

Permits to construct fell by 6.7% m/m in February against revised level of +8.3% m/m in January. Statistics released earlier showed that business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, against the level of 28.0 points in February. The data keeps the NZD from significant sales. The boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in the business confidence.

At the Forex currency market trade is sluggish for the Australian Dollar rate on Tuesday morning.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes down in the negative area, maintaining a sell signal, while volumes are high. Stochastic Oscillator went out of the oversold zone and is giving a buy signal at the moment.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0320 the pair will go back to 1.0340 and 1.0350. If external background deteriorates, the target for sale will be the level of 1.0250.

Austrian Dollar remains very sensitive to the news from China.

Statistics released earlier showed that number of jobs in Australia increased by 0.7% q/q in December-February. Previous statistics demonstrated that unemployment rate in the country amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

Activity index AiG in the service sector rose to 47.0 points in March against the fall of 5.3 points in February. Trade balance amounted to -А$0.48 billion in February against the level of +A$1.3 billion in January.

The Reserve Bank of Australia stated last week that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can have a significant impact on Australian economic system. This statement was unfavourable for the AUD.

A meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia had mixed outcome: interest rate was left at the previous level of 4.25% per annum; however it was the tone of the follow-up comments that made investors feel anxious. Thus, the regulator stressed that the RBA is able to lower the rate if macro-economic data will show slowdown in domestic demand. The RBA also emphasized strong negative effect of European influence.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area, while volumes are low and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone, giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.25 the pair USD/JPY will go to 81.20 and 81.00. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

A regular meeting of the Bank of Japan, which finished today, was rather quiet. Interest rate was left at the level of 0.1% per annum; volumes of assets repurchase program have not been revised either. In the follow-up comments the regulator noted that European negative influence on the economy is still there, although to a lesser extent; however there is still no progress in the economic system.

In general, the views of the Bank contradicted the opinion of Japanese government, who would like to see more dynamic stimulation of the economy.

Statistics released earlier showed that current account balance in Japan amounted to Y1.178 billion in February. In addition, index of economic observers rose to 51.8 points in March against the level of 45.9 points in February. The data indicates that positive trend in the Japanese economy is still preserved.

This data is perfectly consistent with the previous indexes: Retail sales increased by 3.5% in February against expectations of growth of 1.3%. Real GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%. In addition, household spending rose by 2.3% y/y in February against expectations of decline of 0.4% y/y. Net CPI rose by 0.1% y/y in February versus expectations of decline of 0.1% y/y. The data is very positive indeed.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is going up moderately in the negative area and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is coming out of the overbought zone, giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9170 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9180 and 0.9200. If "bears" will turn up in the pair, the target will become the level of 0.9130.

Marco-economic situation in Switzerland is stable on Tuesday morning.

Investors will wait for the data on unemployment rate in the country for March, It is very probable that the index will remain at the level of 3.1%.

At the end of last week, Franc made attempt to rise in the pair EUR/CHF, brining into challenge the integrity of the level 1.20, to which the pair was pegged since last autumn. Economists estimated that beating off one attack of speculators cost not less than 1 billion francs to the Bank.

Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. However other data was weak: retails sales rose only by 0.8% y/y in February against previous value of +4.7% y/y and the forecast of growth of 2.0% y/y.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points. CPI rose by 0.6% m/m (-1.0% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. However the Franc was more interested in the external background and ignored this statistics.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of )%. In general, SNB's view on monetary policy remains unchanged.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland, however it shows recovering trend. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales increased by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will amount from -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area it is going down and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is leaving oversold zone and is giving a buy signal now.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5930 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5940 and 1.5960. If aggressive sellers will be back in the pair the target will be the level of 1.5880.

Statistics released this morning showed that house price index RICS rose to -10 points in March against the level of -13 points in February. This is the highest level in the index since June 2010.

Previous statistics demonstrated that consumer confidence in the UK GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy. GDP in the UK fell by 0.3%on quarterly basis in Q4 (+0.55 Y/Y) while economists expected less significant fall of 0.2% q/q. Balance of current account in the UK was at the level of -stg8.451 billion in Q4 against the forecast of -stg8.4 billion. At the same time volume of consumer expenditures at the end of 2011 increased only by 0.4% on quarterly basis (+0.5% q/q on quarterly basis).

According to the data released earlier, retail sales fell by 0.8% m/m (+1.0% y/y). According to the data released earlier, sales excluding fuel fell by the same value and index for January was revised upward up to +0.3% m/m. It seems that weak labour sector and high levels of inflation put pressure on the retail sales index. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.0% in February; number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weakness in the sector prevents economic recovery of the country. PMI Markit/CIPS in the manufacturing sector rose to 52.1 points in March against revised value of 51.5 points. This data gave good support to the currency. The index was at highs since May 2011 and the main driver of growth was the volume of new orders: 52.7 points against the level of 50.5 points earlier. This index is maximal as well-at the peaks since March last year.

At the meeting of the Bank of England which was held last week, it was decided to keep interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.5% per annum, as expected. The regulator did not make any other changes, leaving everything as it was. He noted that he would continue to review the size of the QE program, which will expire in a month time. In this view a meeting of the Bank of England in May is going to be very interesting.

By 8.25 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3130 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3104.

Positive news from Spain helped the major pair to regain from the fall to the local lows yesterday: the country announced the plan to cut on expenses for 10 billion Euro. Toughening will concern mostly social programs and health care sector.

Meanwhile Reuters survey showed that QE3 is still expected in the U.S. Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke said in his speech in Atlanta yesterday that American economy is still far from full recovery.

This afternoon, investors will be interested in statistics from Germany. The U.S. data on wholesale inventories will draw Investors 'attention tonight.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.3050-1.3150 at the trading session on Tuesday.

At the Forex currency market the British Pound rate make attempts to regain on Thursday after mass sales in the last two days.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area and is going up, giving a buy signal while volumes are increasing. Stochastic Oscillator has reversed in the neutral zone and is going down, giving a sell signal.  

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5890 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5880 and 1.5850. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

A regular meeting of the Bank of England will be held today: investors will be interested in the follow-up comments on economic outlook. This week will be a short one as British markets will be closed on Friday due to Easter celebrations 

Investors’ withdrawal from major currencies intensified because of the pressure of pessimistic comments of the head of the European Central Bank Mr. Draghi.

PMI Markit/CIPS in the manufacturing sector rose to 52.1 points in March against revised value of 51.5 points. This data gave good support to the currency. The index was at highs since May 2011 and the main driver of growth was the volume of new orders: 52.7 points against the level of 50.5 points earlier. This index is maximal as well-at the peaks since March last year.

According to the data released earlier, retail sales fell by 0.8% m/m (+1.0% y/y). According to the data released earlier, sales excluding fuel fell by the same value and index for January was revised upward up to +0.3% m/m. It seems that weak labour sector and high levels of inflation put pressure on the retail sales index. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.0% in February; number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weakness in the sector prevents economic recovery of the country.  

Previous statistics demonstrated that consumer confidence in the UK GFK/NOP declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 points. The data indicates strong destabilization in the British economy. GDP in the UK fell by 0.3%on quarterly basis in Q4 (+0.55 Y/Y) while economists expected less significant fall of 0.2% q/q. Balance of current accounts in the UK was at the level of -stg8.451 billion in Q4 against the forecast of –stg8.4 billion. At the same time volume of consumer expenditures at the end of 2011 increased only by 0.4% on quarterly basis (+0.5% q/q on quarterly basis).

Trading session for the USD started at thy level of 29.45 roubles which is 5 kopeks less than yesterday's closing level. The EUR started at the level of 38.71 roubles (- 5 kopeks).

Dual currency bascket value amounted to 33.62 roubles, almost unchanged.

Therefore, external background influences on the Rouble again.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.40-2955 rouble/USD at the trading session on Thursday.

Dual currency basket value amounted at 33.63 roubles today (+2 kopeks).

Therefore, external background, which has taken turn to a worse, is not favourable for the Rouble.

Presumably the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.35-29.55 Roubles for USD at the trading session in the middle of the week.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9920 the pair will go to 0.9930 and 0.9950. Consolidation close to the current levels is possible.

Canadian dollar is still very sensitive to external backdrop, so positions of the AUD are getting weaker, as long as interest to commodity currencies in the market is decreasing.

The head of the Bank of Canada Mr. Carney said that economic growth in the country is above the forecast and authorities possess a number of tools to protect housing market from overheating. However, monetary policy tools will be applied only as the last resort. Earlier, Mr. Carney emphasized that current rates are consistent with monetary situation. Recall, that in the middle of the January, the Bank of Canada kept interest rate at the level of 1.0% per annum, which was not a surprise for the market. The Bank of Canada expressed concern about the state of the housing sector; according to the regulator 10% decline in the sector can lead to reduction in consumption by 1% although the bulk of credits on property were used to finance consumption.

Average weekly earnings in the country rose by 0.6% m/m (+2.0% y/y in January.

According to the data released last Friday, GDP in Canada rose by 0.1% m/m (+1.75% y/y) in January against revised value of +0.5% m/m (+1.9% y/y), which in general agreed with the forecast. Previous statistics showed that economic growth in Canada slowed down in Q4: real GDP amounted to +0.4% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.3% m/m. Al in all Canadian economy grew only by 0.4% in the last quarter last year versus +1.0% in Q3. This can be attributed by strong impact of external factors and decreased interest in energy resources at the end of the year.

Current account balance in Canada amounted to -CAD$10.33 billion in Q4 against expectations of -CAD$9.6 billion. Prices for industrial goods in Canada rose by 0.3% in January against the forecast of growth of 0.1%. Oil prices became the main driver for growth.
Unemployment rate in Canada fell from 7.4% to 7.6% in February, number of jobs declined by 2.8 thousand. It became known earlier that inflation in Canada increased by 0.4% m/m (+2.6% y/y) in February against expectations of growth of 0.5% m/m. At the same time net CPI grew by 0.4% m/m as well. Prices for electric power and food became a catalyst for the rise in inflation levels.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD went into the negative area, it has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and is going down now, maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is moving along the signal line on the border with oversold zone and is not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0270 the pair will go back to 1.0260 and 1.0240.

The currency is still affected by strong negative factor caused by the outcome of the meeting of RBA. A meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia had mixed outcome: interest rate was left at the previous level of 4.25% per annum; however it was the tone of the follow-up comments that made investors feel anxious. Thus, the regulator stressed that the RBA is able to lower the rate if macro-economic data will show slowdown in domestic demand. The RBA also emphasized strong negative effect of European influence.

Reserve Bank of Australia stated last week that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can have a significant impact on Australian economic system. This statement was unfavourable for the AUD.

The data released this morning showed that activity index AiG in the service sector rose to 47.0 points in March against the fall of 5.3 points in February. Trade balance amounted to -А$0.48 billion in February against the level of +A$1.3 billion in January.

Statistics released on Thursday showed that number of jobs in Australia increased by 0.7% q/q in December-February. Previous statistics demonstrated that unemployment rate in the country amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand.

Earlier investors reacted negatively to the latest comments of the company BNR. Company's management circulated press- release, expressing dissatisfaction with the royalty taxation. The AUD traders were quick to close positions.

Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area, while volumes are average and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 82.55 the pair USD/JPY will go to 82.50 and 82.10. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Statistics released this morning showed that consumer sentiment index in Japan increased by 1.9 points in March, to the level -55.6 points against the value of -57.5 points in December. The data released on Tuesday demonstrated that monetary base in Japan fell to -0.2% y/y in March against the growth of 11.3% earlier. The Yen did not respond to statistics, as investors are focused on the external background now, which is in general favourable for today's trading session.

The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa reiterated that winning victory over deflation is extremely important for the country. Measures to stimulate growth are essential in the Country of the Rising Sun; however only these actions and infusions of the CB will not be able to improve the situation.

Retail sales rose by 3.5% y/y in February against expectations of growth of 1.3% y/y. This is a positive indication; however it shall be corroborated by further data.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q. Unemployment rate in February fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%. In addition, household spending rose by2.3% y/y in February versus expectations of decline of 0.4% y/y. Net CPI increased by 0.1% y/y in February against the forecast of decline of 0.1% y/y. This data is very favourable indeed.

Earlier, the JPY gained support from the fact that it was the end of the fiscal year which finished on 31 March. Exporters brought revenues to the country last week. So this factor is losing force now.

Finance Minister of Japan Mr. Azumi said earlier that now the country is watching over the negotiations in Europe on establishment of the so-called protective barrier- the comment was made in response to expectations whether Japan would participate in the fight against European debt crisis through contribution to IMF.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes down in the negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has left oversold zone and increasing rapidly in the neutral zone, giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9130 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9140 and 0.9160. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Franc's position is getting weaker, largely due to the influence of external environment. Marco-economic situation in the country remains unchanged.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland and does not demonstrate tendency to recover any more. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales rose by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and shows that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо +0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank three- month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, position of SNB on monetary policy has remained unchanged.

Statistics released this week showed that PMI SVME in Switzerland rose to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. However, other data was weak: retail sales increased only by 0.8% in February against the previous value of +4.7% y/y and the forecast of growth of 2.0% y/y.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points.

Industrial output in manufacturing sector of Switzerland declined again in Q4 last year: volume of industrial output amounted to -1.4% y/y for the reporting period against the level of -1.9% in Q3. It became known earlier that imports increased by 0.7% y/y to the level of 14.04 billion francs in February, while exports rose only by 1.2% y/y (16.72 billion francs) last month. Balance of trade surplus amounted to 2.68 billion francs in February. It is the increase against previous level of 1.5 billion francs. According to the data released earlier, unemployment rate amounted to 3.4% in February - no changes.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5880, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5870 and 1.5850.

Sales in the pair started last night after the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve: investors felt disappointed with the position of monetary politicians who began to give less support to the program QE3.

It became known this week that PMI Markit/CIPS in the manufacturing sector rose to 52.1 points in March against previous revised level of 51.5 points. This data supported currency. The index was at the highest level since May 2011, the main driver of growth was the volume of new orders: 52.7 points against 50.5 points earlier. This index is also maximal -at highs since last March.

Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector prevents economic recovery of the country in general.

According to the data released earlier, retail sales in the UK fell by 0.8% m/m (+1.0% y/y) in February. At the same time sales, excluding fuel, decreased for the same amount last month; index of January was revised upward to +0.3% m/m. It seems that weak labour sector and high level of inflation continue to put pressure on the index of retails sales.

On Thursday, 5 April, a regular meeting of the Bank of England will be held. Investors will be interested in the follow-up comments on economic outlook. It will be a short week for the British market, as the local market will be closed on Friday due to Easter celebrations.

Statistics released earlier showed that consumer confidence GFK/NOP in the UK declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 in February. The data indicates that strong destabilization factor is still preserved in British economy. The data released earlier showed that GDP in the UK fell by 0.3% on quarterly basis in Q4 (+0.5% y/y). Economists expected a less significant decline of 0.2% q/q. Current account balance in the UK was at the level of -stg8.451 billion in Q4 versus the forecast of -stg8.4 billion; while volume of consumer expenses rose only by 0.4% on quarterly basis at the end of the year 2011 (+0.5% q/q a quarter earlier).

By 8.50 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3198 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3232.

The cause for the mass sales was discovered last night. The minutes of the last meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve said that there are fewer of monetary politicians who are in favour of implementation of new program of assets purchase, QE3.

In addition, the minutes stressed that American economy is very susceptible to inflation

Block of European news will be released today including some important statistics, such as the retail sales index in Eurozone for February and some German data. A regular meeting of the European Central Bank will be held today which is unlikely to bring something fundamentally new.

A regular meeting of the European Central Bank will be held today which is unlikely to bring something fundamentally new.
Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not leave the range of 1.3150-1.3260 at the trading session on Wednesday.

Dual currency basket value amounted at 33.69 roubles today (-4 kopeks).

Therefore, positive dynamics of the stock markets is the main catalyst for the growth in the Rouble.

Presumably the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.20-29.35 Roubles for USD at the trading session on Tuesday.

The head of the Bank of Canada Mr. Carney said yesterday that economic growth in the country is above the forecast and authorities obtain number of ways to protect housing market from overheating. However, monetary policy tools will be applied only as the last resort.
Earlier, Mr. Carney emphasized that current rates are consistent with monetary situation. Recall, that in the middle of the January, the Bank of Canada kept interest rate at the level of 1.0% per annum, which was not a surprise for the market. The Bank of Canada expressed concern about the state of the housing sector; according to the regulator 10% decline in the sector can lead to reduction in consumption by 1% although the bulk of credits on property were used to finance consumption.

Current account balance in Canada amounted to -CAD$10.33 billion in Q4 against expectations of -CAD$9.6 billion. Prices for industrial goods in Canada rose by 0.3% in January against the forecast of growth of 0.1%. Oil prices became the main driver for growth.

Unemployment rate in Canada fell from 7.4% to 7.6% in February, number of jobs declined by 2.8 thousand. It became known earlier that inflation in Canada increased by 0.4% m/m (+2.6% y/y) in February against expectations of growth of 0.5% m/m. At the same time net CPI grew by 0.4% m/m as well. Prices for electric power and food became a catalyst for the rise in inflation levels.
Average weekly earnings in the country rose by 0.6% m/m (+2.0% y/y in January.

According to the data released last Friday, GDP in Canada rose by 0.1% m/m (+1.75% y/y) in January against revised value of +0.5% m/m (+1.9% y/y), which in general agreed with the forecast. Previous statistics showed that economic growth in Canada slowed down in Q4: real GDP amounted to +0.4% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.3% m/m. Al in all Canadian economy grew only by 0.4% in the last quarter last year versus +1.0% in Q3. This can be attributed by strong impact of external factors and decreased interest in energy resources at the end of the year.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD went into the negative area, breaking through the signal line from top to bottom and is going down, and maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go up in the neutral zone; however buy signal is very weak so far.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0400 the pair will aim to 1.0390 and 1.0370.

A meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia had mixed outcome: interest rate was left at the previous level of 4.25% per annum; however it was the tone of the follow-up comments that made investors feel anxious.

Thus, the regulator stressed that the RBA is able to lower the rate if macro-economic data will show slowdown in domestic demand. The RBA also emphasized strong negative effect of European influence.

Reserve Bank of Australia stated last week that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can have a significant impact on Australian economic system. This statement was unfavourable for the AUD.

Earlier investors reacted negatively to the latest comments of the company BNR. Company's management circulated press- release, expressing dissatisfaction with the royalty taxation. The AUD traders were quick to close positions.

Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

Statistics released on Thursday showed that number of jobs in Australia increased by 0.7% q/q in December-February. Previous statistics demonstrated that unemployment rate in the country amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area, while volumes are average and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has reversed in the neutral zone and goes down, giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 82.00 the pair USD/JPY will go to 81.90 and 81.70. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

The data released on Tuesday showed that monetary base in Japan fell to -0.2% y/y in March against the growth of 11.3% earlier. The Yen did not respond to statistics, as investors are focused on the external background now, which is in general favourable for today's trading session.

Earlier the JPY gained support from the fact that it was the end of the fiscal year which finished on 31 March. Exporters brought revenues to the country last week. So this factor is losing force now.

Finance Minister of Japan Mr. Azumi said earlier that now the country is watching over the negotiations in Europe on establishment of the so-called protective barrier- the comment was made in response to expectations whether Japan would participate in the fight against European debt crisis through contribution to IMF.

The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa reiterated that winning victory over deflation is extremely important for the country. Measures to stimulate growth are essential in the Country of the Rising Sun; however only these actions and infusions of the CB will not be able to improve the situation. Minutes of the February meeting of the Bank of Japan showed that some members of the Bank think that it would be expedient to establish threshold for inflation target at the level of 1-2%, while one vote was given for the target at 2%. The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted earlier that the regulator is going to keep on easing monetary policy until inflation reaches the target of 1%. Statistics released last week showed that trade balance in the Country of the Rising Sun amounted to -0.31 trillion yen in February against -0.49 trillion yen.

Retail sales rose by 3.5% y/y in February against expectations of growth of 1.3% y/y. This is a positive indication; however it shall be corroborated by further data.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q. Unemployment rate in February fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%. In addition, household spending rose by2.3% y/y in February versus expectations of decline of 0.4% y/y. Net CPI increased by 0.1% y/y in February against the forecast of decline of 0.1% y/y. This data is very favourable indeed.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative area; it has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9020 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9010 and 0.9000. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Yesterday's statistics showed that PMI SVME in Switzerland rose to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. However, other data was weak: retail sales increased only by 0.8% in February against the previous value of +4.7% y/y and the forecast of growth of 2.0% y/y.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland and does not demonstrate tendency to recover any more. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales rose by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). he data is quite good and shows that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо +0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank three- month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, position of SNB on monetary policy has remained unchanged.

Industrial output in manufacturing sector of Switzerland declined again in Q4 last year: volume of industrial output amounted to -1.4% y/y for the reporting period against the level of -1.9% in Q3. It became known earlier that imports increased by 0.7% y/y to the level of 14.04 billion francs in February, while exports rose only by 1.2% y/y (16.72 billion francs) last month. Balance of trade surplus amounted to 2.68 billion francs in February. It is the increase against previous level of 1.5 billion francs. According to the data released earlier, unemployment rate amounted to 3.4% in February - no changes.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6040, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6050 and 1.6070. Consolidation is possible at the current levels.

Yesterday, purchases in the GBP were spurred up by statistics: PMI Markit/CIPS in the manufacturing sector rose to 52.1 points in March against previous revised level of 51.5 points.

The index was at the highest level since May 2011, the main driver of growth was the volume of new orders: 52.7 points against 50.5 points earlier. This index is at highs since last March as well.

The latest statistics showed that consumer confidence GFK/NOP in the UK declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 in February. The data indicates that strong destabilization factor is still preserved in British economy. The data released earlier showed that GDP in the UK fell by 0.3% on quarterly basis in Q4 (+0.5% y/y). Economists expected a less significant decline of 0.2% q/q. Current account balance in the UK was at the level of -stg8.451 billion in Q4 versus the forecast of -stg8.4 billion; while volume of consumer expenses rose only by 0.4% on quarterly basis at the end of the year 2011 (+0.5% q/q a quarter earlier).

Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector prevents economic recovery of the country in general.

According to the data released earlier, retail sales in the UK fell by 0.8% m/m (+1.0% y/y) in February. At the same time sales, excluding fuel, decreased for the same amount last month; index of January was revised upward to +0.3% m/m. Apparently, weak labour sector and high level of inflation continue to put pressure on the index of retails sales. A regular meeting of the Bank of England will be held on Thursday, 5 April. Investors will be interested in the follow-up comments on economic outlook. It will be a short week for the British market, as the local market will be closed on Friday due to Easter celebrations.

By 9.15 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3333 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3319.

Chinese statistics supports positions of the major pair this morning: PMI in the service sector of China rose to 58.0 points in March against previous level of 48.4 points.

The calendar of European statistics is not very eventful today; only the data on producer price index in Eurozone for February will become known. The U.S. Redbook data is scheduled for publication tonight as well as the data on orders in the manufacturing sector for February.
In general, today's session is going to be quiet.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not leave the range of 1.3280-1.3380 at the trading session on Tuesday.

Dual currency basket value amounted at 33.74 roubles today (-10 kopeks).

Therefore, optimism at the beginning of the second quarter encourages the rise in the Rouble.

Presumably the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.25-29.55 Roubles for USD at the trading session on Monday.

The major pair is in the oversold range at the beginning of the week, assessing outcome of the meeting of European committee.

At the meeting, Finance Ministers of European Union declared for expansion of the reserves of the IMF, as the Fund requires variety of tools to combat inflation.

Last Friday the politicians adopted a decision to increase volume of anti-crisis fund up to 1 trillion, which theoretically shall become the basis for expansion of the reserves in IMF.

This week is going to be short for European and American markets: most of them will be closed on Friday due to Easter celebrations.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3280-1.3370 at the trading session on Monday.

According to the data released on Friday, GDP in Canada rose by 0.1% m/m (+1.75% y/y) in January against revised value of +0.5% m/m (+1.9% y/y), which in general agreed with the forecast. Previous statistics showed that economic growth in Canada slowed down in Q4: real GDP amounted to +0.4% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.3% m/m. Al in all Canadian economy grew only by 0.4% in the last quarter last year versus +1.0% in Q3. This can be attributed by strong impact of external factors and decreased interest in energy resources at the end of the year.

The head of the Bank of Canada Mr. Carney believes that current rates are consistent with monetary situation. Recall, that in the middle of the January, the Bank of Canada kept interest rate at the level of 1.0% per annum, which was not a surprise for the market. The Bank of Canada expressed concern about the state of the housing sector; according to the regulator 10% decline in the sector can lead to reduction in consumption by 1% although the bulk of credits on property were used to finance consumption. 

Current account balance in Canada amounted to -CAD$10.33 billion in Q4 against expectations of -CAD$9.6 billion. Prices for industrial goods in Canada rose by 0.3% in January against the forecast of growth of 0.1%. Oil prices became the main driver for growth. Unemployment rate in Canada fell from 7.4% to 7.6% in February, number of jobs declined by 2.8 thousand.

It became known earlier that inflation in Canada increased by 0.4% m/m (+2.6% y/y) in February against expectations of growth of 0.5% m/m. At the same time net CPI grew by 0.4% m/m as well. Prices for electric power and food became a catalyst for the rise in inflation levels.
Average weekly earnings in the country rose by 0.6% m/m (+2.0% y/y in January).

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD went into the negative area, breaking through the signal line from top to bottom and is going down, and maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator continues to go down in the neutral zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0340 the pair will aim to 1.0320 and 1.0300.

Despite general positive backdrop in the world capital markets, the AUD is again on sale versus the American dollar. At the end of last week the pair came up closely to the lows of January.

Statistics released on Thursday showed that number of jobs in Australia increased by 0.7% q/q in December-February. Previous statistics demonstrated that unemployment rate in the country amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand.

The Reserve Bank of Australia stated earlier that funding problems can be preserved this year in the country, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can significantly impact on Australian economy. This statement was unfavourable for the AUD.

Earlier investors reacted negatively to the latest comments of the company BNR. Company's management circulated press- release, expressing dissatisfaction with the royalty taxation. The AUD traders were quick to close positions. Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area, while volumes are average and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 82.90 the pair USD/JPY will go to 83.00 and 83.20.

Earlier the JPY gained support from the fact that it was the end of the fiscal year which finished on 31 March. Exporters brought revenues to the country last week. So this factor is losing force now.

Retail sales rose by 3.5% y/y in February against expectations of growth of 1.3% y/y. This is a positive indication; however it shall be corroborated by further data.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q. Unemployment rate in February fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%. In addition, household spending rose by2.3% y/y in February versus expectations of decline of 0.4% y/y. Net CPI increased by 0.1% y/y in February against the forecast of decline of 0.1% y/y. This data is very favourable indeed.

Finance Minister of Japan Mr. Azumi said earlier that now the country is watching over the negotiations in Europe on establishment of the so-called protective barrier- the comment was made in response to expectations whether Japan would participate in the fight against European debt crisis through contribution to IMF.

The head of the Bank of Japan reiterated that winning victory over deflation is extremely important for the country. Measures to stimulate growth are essential in the Country of the Rising Sun; however only these actions and infusions of the CB will not be able to improve the situation. Minutes of the February meeting of the Bank of Japan showed that some members of the Bank think that it would be expedient to establish threshold for inflation target at the level of 1-2%, while one vote was given for the target at 2%. The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted earlier that the regulator is going to keep on easing monetary policy until inflation reaches the target of 1%. Statistics released last week showed that trade balance in the Country of the Rising Sun amounted to -0.31 trillion yen in February against -0.49 trillion yen.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative area; it has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and is resuming a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9020 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9010 and 0.9000. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Macro-economic situation in Switzerland is stable on Monday morning.

Industrial output in manufacturing sector of Switzerland declined again in Q4 last year: volume of industrial output amounted to -1.4% y/y for the reporting period against the level of -1.9% in Q3. It became known earlier that imports increased by 0.7% y/y to the level of 14.04 billion francs in February, while exports rose only by 1.2% y/y (16.72 billion francs) last month. Balance of trade surplus amounted to 2.68 billion francs in February. It is the increase against previous level of 1.5 billion francs. According to the data released earlier, unemployment rate amounted to 3.4% in February- no changes.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points.

Representative of Swiss Finance Ministry said last Monday that the pegging rate of the pair EUR/CHF shall be maintained in the range of 1.35-1.40 but not at the current 1.20. Finance Minister said in his interview to the local TV that he would welcome the rise in the pair; however this matter is under control of SNB. 
Disagreements about preservation of the rate in the pair are difficult to understand, as only a few days ago Mr. Dantin emphasized that the main objective of SNB is to maintain exchange rate of the pair EUR/CHF around the level of 1.20. In order to maintain current level and prevent the pair from dipping below this level, the regulator is ready to do all possible, including buying foreign currency unlimited quantities.
Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it demonstrates tendency to recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales increased by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). This favourable data shows that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо +0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year. Three- month Libor rate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, position of SNB on monetary policy has remained unchanged.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6010, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6020 and 1.6050. Consolidation is possible at the current levels.

A regular meeting of the Bank of England will be held on Thursday, 5 April. Investors will be interested in the follow-up comments on economic outlook. It will be a short week for the British market, as the local market will be closed on Friday due to Easter celebrations.

Previously released statistics showed that consumer confidence GFK/NOP in the UK declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 in February. The data indicates that strong destabilization factor is still preserved in British economy. The data released earlier showed that GDP in the UK fell by 0.3% on quarterly basis in Q4 (+0.5% y/y). Economists expected a less significant decline of 0.2% q/q. Current account balance in the UK was at the level of -stg8.451 billion in Q4 versus the forecast of -stg8.4 billion; while volume of consumer expenses rose only by 0.4% on quarterly basis at the end of the year 2011 (+0.5% q/q a quarter earlier).

Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector prevents economic recovery of the country in general.

The main disputes in the Bank of England have shifted to the problem of QE and appropriateness of the program continuation. Now the head of the Regulator, Mervyn King noted that he is not so sure if further expansion of QE will be necessary. According to him, the Bank of England examines appropriateness of the repurchase program monthly basis.

FPC, a sub-division of the Bank of England, believes that all issues relating to financial stability of the UK are still highly uncertain. Problems of the European debts continue to put pressure on the British economy. However, measures of the ECB and especially auction LTRO had a positive effect on the banks of the country. At the same time the committee believes that the banks with more vulnerable financial structure should be more attentive to the problems of the European peripheral areas and in particular, to monitor sufficient level of capital.
According to the data released earlier, retail sales in the UK fell by 0.8% m/m (+1.0% y/y) in February. At the same time sales, excluding fuel, decreased for the same amount last month; index of January was revised upward to +0.3% m/m. Apparently weak labour sector and high level of inflation continue to put pressure on the index of retails sales.

The trading session for the USD started at the level of 29.23 roubles, which is lower than yesterday's closing level; The EUR started movement at the level of 39.15 roubles (+3 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.73 roubles (-9 kopeks).

Therefore, increased sentiments at the global capital markets support investors at the end of the week.

Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.15-29.35 Roubles for USD.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is moving along the signal line in the negative area and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator continues to slide down moderately in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8190 the pair will aim to 0.8180 and 0.8160. It is possible that the pair will go to 0.8220.

It became known this morning that permits to construct in New Zealand fell by 6.7% in February against the revised value of +8.3% m/m in January.

Statistics released today showed that business confidence in New Zealand increased to 33.8 points in March, as per estimates of NBNZ, against the level of 28.0 points in February. This data has deterred the NZD from more significant sales. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the catalyst for the rise in the business confidence.

According to the data released earlier, export prices in New Zealand rose by 1.7% q/q in Q4 against -4.0% in Q3. Import prices increased by 3.2% on quarterly basis for the reporting period against previous decline of 3.4%. Previous statistics showed that activity in the manufacturing industry of New Zealand increased by 1.3% in Q4 against the fall of 1.4% earlier. 
In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% as expected. RBNZ noted in the comments that there is no reason to revise interest rate at the moment.
House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive and indicates that employment sector as one of the main supportive factors for the economy can guarantee stability even in case of external pessimistic impact.

Activity index in the service sector fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balance amounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion in November. However, this positive factor has already been incorporated into the price. GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP almost has stopped its growth however started to revive later. Most likely, the index will be weaker in Q4.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD went into the negative area, breaking through the signal line from top to bottom and is going down, maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator continues to go down in the neutral zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0400 the pair will aim to 1.0380 and 1.0350.

Macro-economic background is calm in Australia. External background will provide support to the AUD today.

Statistics released on Thursday showed that number of jobs in Australia increased by 0.7% q/q in December-February. Previous statistics demonstrated that unemployment rate in the country amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand.

Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

The Reserve Bank of Australia stated earlier that funding problems can be preserved this year in the country, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can significantly impact on Australian economy. This statement was unfavourable for the AUD.
Earlier investors reacted negatively to the latest comments of the company BNR. Company's management circulated press- release, expressing dissatisfaction with the royalty taxation. The AUD traders were quick to close positions.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator descends in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.90 the pair USD/JPY will go to 81.80 and 81.60.

The JPY is supported by the fact that it is the end of the fiscal year which will end on 31 March. Exporters bring revenues into the country.
Statistics released this morning included the following: unemployment rate in February fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6% in the Country of the Rising Sun. In addition, household spending rose by2.3% y/y in February versus expectations of decline of 0.4% y/y.

Net CPI increased by 0.1% y/y in February against the forecast of decline of 0.1% y/y.

This data is very favourable indeed.

Retail sales rose by .5% y/y in February against expectations of growth of 1.3% y/y. This is a positive indication; however it shall be corroborated by further data.

Statistics released earlier showed that real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q. Minutes of the February meeting of the Bank of Japan showed that some members of the Bank think that it would be expedient to establish threshold for inflation target at the level of 1-2%, while one vote was given for the target at 2%. The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted earlier that the regulator is going to keep on easing monetary policy until inflation reaches the target of 1%. Statistics released last week showed that trade balance in the Country of the Rising Sun amounted to -0.31 trillion yen in February against -0.49 trillion yen.

Finance Minister of Japan Mr. Azumi said earlier that now the country is watching over the negotiations in Europe on establishment of the so-called protective barrier- the comment was made in response to expectations whether Japan would participate in the fight against European debt crisis through contribution to IMF. The head of the Bank of Japan reiterated that winning victory over deflation is extremely important for the country. Measures to stimulate growth are essential in the Country of the Rising Sun; however only these actions and infusions of the CB will not be able to improve the situation.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative area; it has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and is resuming a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9020 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9010 and 0.9000.

Today investors expect the data on leading indicators index KOF for March in Switzerland. The index can influence on balance of forces in Franc.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points.

Industrial output in manufacturing sector of Switzerland declined again in Q4 last year: volume of industrial output amounted to -1.4% y/y for the reporting period against the level of -1.9% in Q3. It became known earlier that imports increased by 0.7% y/y to the level of 14.04 billion francs in February, while exports rose only by 1.2% y/y (16.72 billion francs) last month. Balance of trade surplus amounted to 2.68 billion francs in February. It is the increase against previous level of 1.5 billion francs. According to the data released earlier, unemployment rate amounted to 3.4% in February - no changes.

Three-month Libor rate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's position on monetary policy has remained unchanged.

Representative of Swiss Finance Ministry said on Monday that the pegging rate of the pair EUR/CHF shall be maintained in the range of 1.35-1.40 but not at current 1.20. Finance Minister said in his interview to the local TV that he would welcome the rise in the pair; however this matter is under control of SNB.

Disagreements about preservation of the rate in the pair are difficult to understand, as only a few days ago Mr. Mr. Dantin emphasized that the main objective of SNB is to maintain exchange rate of the pair EUR/CHF around the level of 1.20. In order to maintain current level and prevent the pair from dipping below this level, the regulator is ready to do all possible, including buying foreign currency unlimited quantities. Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it demonstrates tendency to recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics released on Monday showed that real retail sales increased by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y in January.

GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). This favourable data shows that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо +0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5990, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6000 и 1.6020 Consolidation is possible at the current levels.

Statistics released this morning showed that consumer confidence GFK/NOP in the UK declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 in February. The data indicates that strong destabilization factor is still preserved in British economy.

The data released earlier showed that GDP in the UK fell by 0.3% on quarterly basis in Q4 (+0.5% y/y). Economists expected a less significant decline of 0.2% q/q. Current account balance in the UK was at the level of -stg8.451 billion in Q4 versus the forecast of -stg8.4 billion; while volume of consumer expenses rose only by 0.4% on quarterly basis at the end of the year 2011 (+0.5% q/q a quarter earlier).

So far, statistics is unfavourable for the GBP; however influence of the external background is clearly stronger.

According to statistics released last week retail sales in the UK fell by 0.8% m/m (+1.0% y/y) in February. At the same time sales, excluding fuel, decreased for the same amount last month; index in January was revised upward to +0.3% m/m. Apparently weak labour sector and high level of inflation continue to put pressure on the index of retails sales.

Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector prevents economic recovery of the country in general. The main disputes in the Bank of England have shifted to the problem of QE and appropriateness of the program continuation. Now the head of the Regulator, Mervyn King noted that he is not so sure if further expansion of QE will be required. According to him, the Bank of England examines appropriateness of the repurchase program monthly basis. FPC, a sub-division of the Bank of England, believes that all issues relating to financial stability of the UK are still highly uncertain. Problems of the European debts continue to put pressure on the British economy. However, measures of the ECB and especially auction LTRO had a positive effect on the banks of the country. At the same time the committee believes that the banks with more vulnerable financial structure should be more attentive to the problems of the European peripheral areas and in particular, to monitor sufficient level of capital.

By 8.45 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3352 against yesterday's closing level of 1.3301.

Optimism was driven by the meeting of Finance Ministers of Eurozone, which will be held today; issues related to the funds EFSF and ESM are going to be discussed. It is expected that politicians can vote for keeping both permanent and temporary funds and will also comment on the prospects of such mechanisms.

The flow of macro-statistics from the U.S. is scheduled for this afternoon which will be interesting for the players.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3270-1.3390 at the trading session on Friday.

Dual currency basket value amounted at 33.74 roubles today.

Demand for the Rouble's liquidity has increased in the domestic market of RF, which supports positions of the national currency.

Presumably the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.20-29.45 Roubles for USD at the trading session on Thursday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is moving along the signal line in the negative area and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator started to go down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8155 the pair will go to 0.8150 and 0.8110. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Statistics released today showed that business confidence in New Zealand increased to 33.8 points in March, as per estimates of NBNZ, against the level of 28.0 points in February. The data has deterred the NZD from more significant sales. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the catalyst for the rise in the business confidence.

Previous statistics showed that activity in the manufacturing industry of New Zealand increased by 1.3% in Q4 against the fall of 1.4% earlier.

According to the data released earlier, export prices in New Zealand rose by 1.7% q/q in Q4 against -4.0% in Q3. Import prices increased by 3.2% on quarterly basis for the reporting period against previous decline of 3.4%.

In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% as expected. RBNZ noted in the comments that there is no reason to revise interest rate at the moment.

Activity index in the service sector fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balance amounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion in November. However, this positive factor has already been incorporated into the price. GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP almost has stopped its growth however started to revive later. Most likely, the index will be weaker in Q4. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive and indicates that employment sector as one of the main supportive factors for the economy can guarantee stability even in case of external pessimistic impact.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD went into negative area, breaking through the signal line from top to bottom and is going down, maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes gown in the neutral zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0360 the pair will aim to 1.0350 and 1.0310.

Statistics released on Thursday showed that number of jobs in Australia increased by 0.7% q/q in December-February. Previous statistics demonstrated that unemployment rate in the country amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand.

The Reserve Bank of Australia stated yesterday that funding problems can be preserved this year in the country, although access to funding has become simpler for many banks. The RBA emphasized separately that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can significantly impact on Australian economy. This statement was unfavourable for the AUD.

Earlier investors reacted negatively to the latest comments of the company BNR. Company's management circulated press- release expressing dissatisfaction with the royalty taxation. The AUD traders were quick to close positions.

Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

This week is going to be quiet for the economy of Australia: country's statistics will be released only on Friday; this will be the data on the volume of mortgage lending in February and lending rate of the private sector over the same period.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone giving a weak buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 82.60 the pair USD/JPY will go to 82.50 and 82.30.

Statistics released this morning showed that retail sales in Japan increased by 3.5% y/y in February against expectation of growth of 1.3%. This is a positive indication however it shall be corroborated by further data.

Statistics released earlier showed that real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q.

Finance Minister of Japan Mr. Azumi said earlier that the country is going to watch the process of negotiations in Europe on establishment of the so-called protective barrier- the comment was made in response to expectations whether Japan would participate in the fight against European debt crisis through contribution to IMF.

The head of the bank of Japan reiterated that winning victory over deflation is extremely important for the country. Measures to stimulate growth are essential in the Country of the Rising Sun; however only these actions and infusions of the CB will not be able to improve the situation.

Minutes of the February meeting of the Bank of Japan showed that some members of the Bank think that it would be expedient to establish threshold for inflation target at the level of 1-2%, while one vote was given for the target at 2%. The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted earlier that the regulator is going to keep on easing monetary policy until inflation reaches the target of 1%. Statistics released last week showed that trade balance in the Country of the Rising Sun amounted to -0.31 trillion yen in February against -0.49 trillion yen. This is a negative signal.
Representative of the Japanese Federation of Steel and Metal said at the end of last week, that the rate of the Yen is still quite high and Japanese currency should go down at least to the level 90.00, which will make economic recovery process much easier.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is changing direction again breaking through the signal line from top to bottom, giving again a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9035 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9020 and 0.9000.

State of affairs in the economy of Switzerland remains mostly unchanged.

It became known yesterday that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points.

Three- month Libor rate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's position on monetary policy has remained unchanged.

Industrial output in manufacturing sector of Switzerland declined again in Q4 last year: volume of industrial output amounted to -1.4% y/y for the reporting period against the level of -1.9% in Q3. It became known earlier that imports increased by 0.7% y/y to the level of 14.04 billion francs in February, while exports rose only by 1.2% y/y (16.72 billion francs) last month. Balance of trade surplus amounted to 2.68 billion francs in February. It is the increase against previous level of 1.5 billion francs. According to the data released earlier, unemployment rate amounted to 3.4% in February- no changes.

Representative of Swiss Finance Ministry said on Monday that the rate of the pair EUR/CHF shall be pegging in the range of 1.35-1.40 but not at 1.20 as it is now. Finance Minister said in his interview to the local TV that he would welcome strengthening of the pair; however this matter is under control of SNB. Disagreement about the levels rates of the pair is natural: Mr. Dantin noted recently that the main objective of SNB is to maintain   exchange rate of the pair EUR/CHF around the level of 1.20. In order to maintain current level and prevent dipping of the pair below this level, the regulator is ready to do all possible, including buying foreign currency unlimited quantities.

GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). This is the favourable data showing that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо +0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it demonstrates tendency to recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics released on Monday showed that real retail sales increased by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y in January.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5910, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5920 and 1.5940.1. Consolidation is possible at the current levels.

The data released yesterday showed that GDP in the UK fell by 0.3% on quarterly basis in Q4 (+0.5% y/y), economists expected a less significant decline of 0.2% q/q.

Current account balance in the UK was at the level of -stg8.451 billion in Q4 versus the forecast of -stg8.4 billion; while volume of consumer expenses rose only by 0.4% on quarterly basis at the end of the year 2011 (+0.5% q/q a quarter earlier).

The released data frustrated investors.

FPC, a sub-division of the Bank of England, believes that all issues relating to financial stability of the UK are still highly uncertain. Problems of the European debts continue to put pressure on the British economy. However, measures of the ECB and especially auction LTRO had a positive effect on the banks of the country. At the same time the committee believes that the banks with more vulnerable financial structure should be more attentive to the problems of the European peripheral areas and in particular, to monitor sufficient level of capital.
According to statistics released last week retail sales in the UK fell by 0.8% m/m (+1.0% y/y) in February. At the same time sales, excluding fuel, decreased for the same amount last month; index in January was revised upward to +0.3% m/m. Apparently weak labour sector and high level of inflation continue to put pressure on the index of retails sales.

Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector prevents economic recovery of the country in general. main disputes in the Bank of England have shifted to the problem of QE and appropriateness of the program continuation. Now the head of the Regulator, Mervyn King noted that he is not so sure if further expansion of QE will be required. According to him, the Bank of England examines appropriateness of the repurchase program monthly basis. Mr. Miles, representative of the Bank of England believes that the main essence of the assets repurchase program primarily is to achieve targeted inflation level, not to finance deficit in state budget and withdrawal from QE will completely depend on inflationary forecast. Miles also stressed yesterday that process of standardization of monetary policy will probably begin with the rise in rates.

By 8.45 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3320 against yesterday's closing level at 1.3316.

The major pair still fails to go out of the stable channel of 1.3300-1.3380 and even weak US statistics was not able to knock it out of the range.

Today investors will be interested in the data on the U.S. GDP for Q4 last year; it is expected that the index will rise by 3% y/y. The market got used to positive American statistics very quickly and is geared up for positive sentiment. At the same time labour market data for last week will become known.

Europe continues to discuss possibility of expanding anti-crisis funds; however it is still just a discussion   but not a prerequisite to real actions.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3270-1.3380 at the trading session on Thursday.

Dual currency basket value amounted at 33.42 roubles today (+5 kopeks).

Therefore, some decline in activity at the global trading floors and deterioration in investors' sentiments do not encourage the rise in the Rouble. Situation with liquidity in the domestic market is stable.

Presumably the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.0-29.15 Roubles for USD at the trading session on Wednesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is moving along the signal line in the negative area and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8200 the pair will go to 0.8210 and 0.8230. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Interest in high- yielding currencies is moderate in the market, largely due to ambiguous news backdrop from China, which mostly had affected NZD and NZD.

This week will be uneventful for the NZD in terms of macro-statistics.

Previous statistics showed that activity in the manufacturing industry of New Zealand increased by 1.3% in Q4 against the fall of 1.4% earlier. This data supported the currency.

Activity index in the service sector fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balance amounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion in November. However, this positive factor has already been incorporated into the price.
Statistics released last week showed that activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand increased by 1.3% in Q4 against the decline of 1.4% earlier. GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP almost has stopped its growth however started to revive later. Most likely, the index will be weaker in Q4.

House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive and indicates that employment sector as one of the main supportive factors for the economy can guarantee stability even in case of external pessimistic impact.

According to the data released earlier, export prices in New Zealand rose by 1.7% q/q in Q4 against -4.0% in Q3. Import prices increased by 3.2% on quarterly basis for the reporting period against previous decline of 3.4%. 
In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% as expected. RBNZ noted in the comments that there is no point to revise interest rate at the moment.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD went into negative area, breaking through the signal line from top to bottom and is going down, maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone moving along the signal line and not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0430 the pair will aim to 1.0420 and 1.0390.

The Reserve Bank of Australia said this morning that funding problems can be preserved this year in the country, although access to funding has become simpler for many banks. The RBA emphasized separately that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can significantly impact on Australian economy.

This news has not cheered up the AUD, which is on sale again.

Despite interest in risk in the market, the AUD/USD is still under pressure from Chinese news and continues to respond to the ongoing slowdown in Chinese economy, which caused significant sales in the AUD last week. Oil to the fuel was added by the report of the Australian government on commodity market, which stated that export prices for energy resources (coal) will grow very slowly and this will put pressure on the currency. Indeed, there are all grounds to believe that demand for iron ore in China will slow down.

Earlier investors reacted negatively to the latest comments of the company BNR. Company's management circulated press- release expressing dissatisfaction with the royalty taxation. The AUD traders were quick to close positions. This week is going to be quiet for the economy of Australia: country's statistics will be released only on Friday; this will be the data on the volume of mortgage lending in February and lending rate of the private sector over the same period.

Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has pushed away from the oversold zone and is now increasing in the neutral zone, giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 82.95 the pair USD/JPY will go to 83.00 and 83.20.

The head of the bank of Japan stressed once more that winning victory over deflation is extremely important for the country. Measures to stimulate growth are essential in the Country of the Rising Sun; however these actions and infusions of the CB will not be able to improve the situation.

Finance Minister of Japan Mr. Azumi said yesterday that the country is going to observe over the process of negotiations in Europe on establishment of the so-called protective barrier- the comment was made in response to expectations whether Japan would participate in the fight against European debt crisis through contribution to IMF.

Minutes of the February meeting of the Bank of Japan showed that some members of the Bank think that it would be expedient to establish threshold for inflation target at the level of 1-2%, while one vote was given for the target at 2%. The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted earlier that the regulator is going to keep on easing monetary policy until inflation reaches the target of 1%. Statistics released last week showed that trade balance in the Country of the Rising Sun amounted to -0.31 trillion yen in February against -0.49 trillion yen. This is a negative signal.

Representative of the Japanese Federation of Steel and Metal said at the end of last week, that the rate of the Yen is still quite high and Japanese currency should go down at least to the level 90.00, which will make economic recovery process much easier.  
Statistics released earlier showed that real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is changing direction again breaking through the signal line from top to bottom, giving again a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9030 the pair USD/CHF will go 0.9020 and 0.9000.

It became known yesterday that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level at 0.93 points.

Franc has ignored this information.

GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). This is the favourable data showing that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо +0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it demonstrates the signs of recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics released on Monday showed that real retail sales increased by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y in January.

Three-month Libor rate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's position on monetary policy has remained unchanged.

Industrial output in manufacturing sector of Switzerland declined again in Q4 last year: volume of industrial output amounted to -1.4% y/y for the reporting period against the level of -1.9% in Q3. It became known earlier that imports increased by 0.7% y/y to the level of 14.04 billion francs in February, while exports rose only by 1.2% y/y (16.72 billion francs) last month. Balance of trade surplus amounted to 2.68 billion francs in February. It is the increase against previous level of 1.5 billion francs. According to the data released earlier, unemployment rate amounted to 3.4% in February- no changes.
Representative of Swiss Finance Ministry said on Monday that the rate of the pair EUR/CHF shall be pegging in the range of 1.35-1.40 but not at 1.20 as it is now. Finance Minister said in his interview to the local TV that he would welcome strengthening of the pair; however this matter is under control of SNB. Disagreement about the levels rates of the pair is natural: Mr. Dantin noted recently that the main objective of SNB is to maintain exchange rate of the pair EUR/CHF around the level of 1.20. In order to maintain current level and prevent dipping of the pair below this level, the regulator is ready to do all possible, including buying foreign currency unlimited quantities.

All seem fine and dandy, but readiness to curb the rise of Franc is demonstrated in word only, but not in deed; during the last few months after resignation of Hildebrand from the post of the head of SNB, the regulator almost ceased interventions.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5960, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5970 and 1.6010. Consolidation is possible at the current levels.

It seems that main disputes in the Bank of England have shifted to the problem of QE and appropriateness of the program continuation. Now the head of the Regulator, Mervyn King noted that he is not so sure if further expansion of QE will be required. According to him, the Bank of England examines appropriateness of the repurchase program monthly basis.

Mr. Miles, representative of the Bank of England believes that the main essence of the assets repurchase program primarily is to achieve targeted inflation level, not to finance deficit in state budget and withdrawal from QE will completely depend on inflationary forecast. Miles also stressed yesterday that process of standardization of monetary policy will probably begin with the rise in rates.

FPC, a sub-division of the Bank of England, believes that all issues relating to financial stability of the UK are still highly uncertain. Problems of the European debts continue to put pressure on the British economy. However, measures of the ECB and especially auction LTRO had a positive effect on the banks of the country. At the same time the committee believes that the banks with more vulnerable financial structure should be more attentive to the problems of the European peripheral areas and in particular, to monitor sufficient level of capital.
According to statistics released last week retail sales in the UK fell by 0.8% m/m (+1.0% y/y) in February. At the same time sales, excluding fuel, decreased for the same amount last month; index in January was revised upward to +0.3% m/m. Apparently weak labour sector and high level of inflation continue to put pressure on the index of retails sales.

Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector prevents economic recovery of the country in general. Representative of British monetary authorities, Mr. Osborn believes that it will be possible to assess efficiency of the current budget only when all indices are summed up statistically. Then, it will be clear whether the budget contributes to economic growth or not. Osborn assured population of Great Britain that social programs, such as pensioners' payments, will not be affected when a new budget will be adopted; however tax burden for the well-off people will be increased.

GDP investors will await publication of the final GDP in the UK for Q4 today.

By 8.50 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3329 against yesterday's closing level at 1.3312.

There are no new drivers to continue ascend in the major pair yet: American statistics released yesterday had come up to expectation; chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke did not say anything fundamentally new in his speech on Tuesday.

President of FRB in New-York William Dudley said yesterday that Europe has reached considerable success in stabilizing economy in the region. There are still a lot to do; however some important phases have already been accomplished on the way to achieve long term financial stability.

Trading session today is going to be tranquil today. This afternoon investors will be interested in the publication of the U.S. data on orders for durable goods for February.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3270-1.3370 at the trading session on Wednesday.

Dual currency basket value amounted at 33.27 roubles today (-4 kopeks).

Therefore, positive external background and a new round of deficit in the liquidity of the Rouble in the economy of the RF in advance of the tax payments are favourable for the Rouble

Presumably the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 28.86-29.10 Roubles for USD at the trading session on Tuesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD went into negative area, breaking through the signal line from top to bottom and is going down, maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0520 the pair will aim to 1.0530 and 1.0550. In case of breakdown at 1.0500, sellers' target will be the level of 1.0460.

A block of Chinese statistics, released this morning showed decline in the profits of industrial companies in January-February 2012, reducing to zero  yesterday's positive factors in the AUD.

So, despite interest in risk in the market, the AUD/USD is still under pressure from Chinese news and continues to respond to the ongoing slowdown in Chinese economy, which caused significant sales in the AUD last week. Oil to the fuel was added by the report of the Australian government on commodity market, which stated that export prices for energy resources (coal) will grow very slowly and this will put pressure on the currency. Indeed, there are all grounds to believe that demand for iron ore in China will slow down.

Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

Earlier investors reacted negatively to the latest comments of the company BNR. Company's management circulated press- release expressing dissatisfaction with the royalty taxation. The AUD traders were quick to close positions. This week is going to be quiet for the economy of Australia: country's statistics will be released only on Friday; this will be the data on the volume of mortgage lending in February and lending rate of the private sector over the same period.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has pushed away from the oversold zone and is now increasing in the neutral zone, giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 82.90 the pair USD/JPY will go to 83.00 and 83.20.

Finance Minister of Japan Mr. Azumi said this morning that the country has been observing over the process of negotiations in Europe on establishment of the so-called protective barrier- the comment was made in response to expectations whether Japan will participate in the fight against European debt crisis through contribution to IMF.

Statistics released earlier showed that real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q.

Minutes of the February meeting of the Bank of Japan showed that some members of the Bank think that it would be expedient to establish threshold for inflation target at the level of 1-2%, while one vote was given for the target at 2%. The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted earlier that the regulator is going to keep on easing monetary policy until inflation reaches the target of 1%. Statistics released last week showed that trade balance in the Country of the Rising Sun amounted to -0.31 trillion yen in February against -0.49 trillion yen. This is a negative signal.

Country's GDP has been revised upward although it is still in the negative zone. Trade balance of the country remains in deficit. Representative of the Federation of Steel and Metal said at the end of last week, that the rate of the Yen is still quite high and Japanese currency should go down at least to the level 90.00, which will make economic recovery process much easier.  
The Bank of Japan stated earlier that rules of Volkner should be reviewed and discussed more than once, since in case of Japan, adoption of this rule will mean that all profits from Japanese state bonds will be abated. The Regulator will express his opinion at the meeting of Big Twenty.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to the top, however it did not go further above, but merged with the line, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come back into oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9030 the pair USD/CHF will go 0.9020 and 0.9000.

Perresentative of Swiss Finance Ministry said on Monday that the rate of the pair EUR/CHF shall be pegging in the range of 1.35-1.40 but not at 1.20 as it is now. Finance Minister said in his interview to the local TV that he would welcome strengthening of the pair; however this matter is under control of SNB.

Disagreement about the levels rates of the pair is natural: Mr. Dantin noted recently that the main objective of SNB is to maintain exchange rate of the pair EUR/CHF around the level of 1.20. In order to maintain current level and prevent dipping of the pair below this level, the regulator is ready to do all possible, including buying foreign currency unlimited quantities.

All seem fine and dandy, but readiness to curb the rise of Franc is demonstrated in word only, but not in deed; during the last few months after resignation of Hildebrand from the post of the head of SNB, the regulator almost ceased interventions.

GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). This is the favourable data showing that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо +0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year. Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it demonstrates the signs of recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics released on Monday showed that real retail sales increased by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y in January. 

Three-month Libor rate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB's position on monetary policy has remained unchanged.

Production in the industrial sector of Switzerland fell again in Q4; volume of industrial output amounted to -1.4% y/y for the reporting period against the level of -1.9% in Q3.

It became known earlier that imports increased by 0.7% y/y to the level of 14.04 billion francs in February, while exports rose only by 1.2% y/y (16.72 billion francs) last month. Balance of trade surplus amounted to 2.68 billion francs in February. It is the increase against previous level of 1.5 billion francs. According to the data released earlier, unemployment rate amounted to 3.4% in February- no changes.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5970 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5990 and 1.6010. Consolidation is possible at the current levels.

Mr. Miles, representative of the Bank of England believes that the main essence of the assets repurchase program primarily is to achieve targeted inflation level but not to finance deficit in state budget and withdrawal from QE will completely depend on inflationary forecast.

Miles also stressed yesterday that process of standardization of monetary policy will probably begin with the rise in rates.

Representative of British monetary authorities, Mr. Osborn believes that it will be possible to assess efficiency of the current budget only when all indices are summed up statistically. Then, it will be clear whether the budget contributes to economic growth or not. Osborn assured population of Great Britain that social programs, such as pensioners' payments, will not be affected when a new budget will be adopted; however tax burden for the well-off people will be increased.

According to representatives of FPC, a sub-division of the Bank of England, all issues relating to financial stability of the UK are still highly uncertain. Problems of the European debts continue to put pressure on the British economy. However, measures of the ECB and especially auction LTRO had a positive effect on the banks of the country. At the same time the committee believes that the banks with more vulnerable financial structure should be more attentive to the problems of the European peripheral areas and in particular, to monitor sufficient level of capital.

Statistics released last week showed that retail sales in the UK fell by 0.8% m/m (+1.0% y/y) in February. At the same time sales, excluding fuel, decreased for the same amount last month; index in January was revised upward to +0.3% m/m. Apparently weak labour sector and high level of inflation continue to put pressure on the index of retails sales. Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector prevents economic recovery of the country in general.

By 8.20 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3344 against yesterday's closing level at 1.3357.

Positive factor at the end of yesterday's session was provided by the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke who noted in his speech before representatives of the Bank association that the regulator is going to continue accommodative policy even provided that labour market statistics will be positive.

This news cheered up investors who expected more reserved comments.

Apart from this, there have not been any new reasons to continue rally in the pair EUR/USD this morning.

Macro-economic background will not be too eventful today; therefore the players will be guided by the external developments.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3270-1.3350 at the trading session on Tuesday.

Prices for electric power and food became a catalyst for the rise in inflation levels.

It became known last week that unemployment rate in Canada fell from 7.4% to 7.6% in February, number of jobs declined by 2.8 thousand.

According to the data released earlier economic growth in Canada slowed down in Q4: real GDP in Canada amounted to +0.4% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.4% m/m. In general Canadian economy grew by 0.4% in the last quarter last year against +1.0% in Q3, which was caused by strong external impact and decline in interest to energy resources in the world at the end of the year.

The head of the Bank of Canada Mr. Carney believes that current rates comply with monetary situation. Recall that in the middle of the week, the Bank of Canada kept interest rate at the level of 1.0% per annum, which was not a surprise for the market.The Bank of Canada expressed concern about the state of the housing sector; according to the regulator 10% -decline in the sector can lead to reduction in consumption by 1% although the bulk of credits on property were used to finance consumption.

Current account balance in Canada amounted to -CAD$10.33 billion in Q4 against expectations of -CAD$9.6 billion. Prices for industrial goods in Canada rose by 0.3% in January against the forecast of growth of 0.1%. Oil prices became the main driver for growth.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD went into negative area, breaking through the signal line from top to bottom and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator pushed away from the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal now.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0470 the pair will aim to 1.0480 and 1.0510. In case of breakdown at 1.0430, sellers' target will be the level of 1.0380.

This week is going to be quiet for the economy of Australia: country's statistics will be released only on Friday; this will be the data on the volume of mortgage lending in February and lending rate of the private sector over the same period.

Local trading floors are still under pressure from Chinese news and continue to respond to the ongoing slowdown in Chinese economy, which caused significant sales in the AUD last week. Oil to the fuel was added by the report of the Australian government on commodity market which stated that export prices for energy resources (coal) will grow very slowly which will put pressure on the currency. Indeed, there are all grounds to believe that demand for iron ore in China will slow down.

Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%.

Such data can trigger the revise of the interest rate in ARB next month.

Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

Meeting of the RBA last week has neutral outcome: interest rate was kept unchanged at the level of 4.25% per annum. Comments of the Bank's Governor Mr. Stevens were just plain: he said that the state of Australian economy enables to keep monetary policy unchanged.
Earlier investors reacted negatively to the latest comments of the company BNR. Company's management circulated press- release expressing dissatisfaction with the tax on royalties. The AUD traders were quick to close positions.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY is in the positive area and is moving along the signal line, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 82.30 the pair USD/JPY will go to 82.10 and 81.80.

Representative of the Federation of Steel and Metal said last week, that the rate of Yen is still quite high and Japanese currency should go down at least to the level 90.00, in such case economic recovery process will be much easier.

The Bank of Japan stated earlier that rules of Volkner should be reviewed more than once, as in case of Japan, adoption of this rule will mean that all profits from Japanese state bonds will be abated. The Regulator will advance his opinion at the meeting of Big Twenty.

Statistics released earlier showed that real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q.

Minutes of the February meeting of the Bank of Japan showed that some members of the Bank think that it would be expedient to establish threshold for inflation target at the level of 1-2%, while one vote was given for the target at 2%. The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted earlier that the regulator intends to ease monetary policy until inflation reaches the target of 1%. Statistics released last week showed that trade balance in the Country of the Rising Sun amounted to -0.31 trillion yen in February against -0.49 trillion yen. This is a negative signal.

The key factor of growth for the Yen is repatriation of the Japanese capital at the end of the fiscal year in the Country of the rising Sun. (The end of the fiscal year is on 31 March in Japan). Country's GDP has been revised upward although it is still in the negative zone. Trade balance of the country remains in deficit.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from bottom to the top and has merged with it, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator went back to the oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9060 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9050 and 0.9030.

Swiss National Bank representative Mr. Dantin noted at the end of last week that main objective of SNB is to maintain the exchange rate of the pair EUR/CHF close to the level 1.20. In order to maintain current level and do ot let the pair go below this level the regulator at all cost is ready to do all possible including buying foreign currency unlimited quantities.

All seem fine and dandy, but readiness to curb pressure of the Franc can be seen only in word not in deed; in the last few months after resignation of Hildebrand from the post of the head of SNB, the regulator almost ceased interventions.

It became known earlier that imports increased by 0.7% y/y to the level of 14.04 billion francs in February, while imports rose only by 1.2% y/y (16.72 billion francs) last month. Balance of trade surplus amounted to 2.68 billion francs in February increasing against the previous level of 1.5 billion francs.

According to statistics released earlier, unemployment rate in Switzerland amounted to 3.4% in February-no changes.

GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). This is good data, indicating that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо +0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it demonstrates the signs of recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics released on Monday showed that real retail sales increased by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y in January.  
Three- month Libor rate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB views on monetary policy remained unchanged.

Volume of industrial output in manufacturing sector of Switzerland declined in Q4- volume of industrial output amounted to -1.4% y/y for the reporting period against the level of -1.9% in Q3. 
Orders of new industrial enterprises fell by 2% in Q4 2011.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible4 event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5880 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5890 and 1.5910. If external negative factors intensify sales around 1.5700 is possible.

According to representatives of FPC, a sub-division of the Bank of England, all issues relating to financial stability of the UK are still highly uncertain. Problems of the European debts continue to put pressure on the British economy. However, measures of the ECB and especially auction LTRO had a positive effect on the banks of the country. At the same time the committee believes that the banks with more vulnerable financial structure should be more attentive to the problems of the European peripheral areas and in particular, to monitor sufficient level of capital.

Representative of British monetary authorities, Mr Osborn believes that assessment of the current budget efficiency is possible only when all indices are summed up statistically. Only after that it is be clear if the budget promotes economic growth or not. Osborn assured population of Great Britain that social programs, such as pensioners' payments will not be affected when a new budget will be adopted; however tax burden for the well-off people will be increased.

Statistics released last week showed that retail sales in the UK fell by 0.8% m/m (+1.0% y/y) in February. At the same time sales excluding fuel decreased for the same amount last month; index in January was revised upward to +0.3% m/m.
Apparently, weak labour sector and high level of inflation continue to put pressure on the retails sales index. Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector prevents economic recovery of the country in general.

Other statistics demonstrates that not everything is that hopeless, for example, total volume of mortgage lending in the UK amounted to 10.7 billion pounds in February against 10.65 billion pounds in January. The data demonstrates stability in the construction market, which is favourable for the national economy in short term.

Dual currency basket value amounted at 33.55 roubles today (-8 kopeks).

Therefore, uneventful external background and perfect calm in the macro-economic horizon helps to maintain steady position in the Russian currency.

Presumably the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.20-29.40 Roubles for USD at the trading session on Monday.

By 8.15 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3262 against closing session level of 1.3268 on Friday.

There have not been new grounds for the rise in the major pair; this week is going to be quiet in terms of macro-statistics, as well as external background.

In general, the pair Euro/USD is prepared to remain in the oversold area for some more time, as "bulls" and "bears" need more incentives for movement.

External environment will remain the main basis for determining movement direction at trades today, since there is not much new macro-statistics on Monday.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3205-1.3295 at the trading session on Monday.

Dual currency basket value amounted at 33.67 roubles at the closing session on Thursday (+19 kopeks).

Therefore, volatile external environment at the global currency market exerts pressure on the Rouble, leading the Rouble to more reasonable price levels.

Presumably the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.30-29.65 Roubles for USD at the trading session on Friday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD went through the signal line from top to bottom and is now in the negative area, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8060 the pair will go to 0.8050 and 0.8010.

According to statistics released this week, GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.3% on quarterly basis in Q4 against the rise of 0.7% q/q a quarter earlier.

Weak data on economic growth did not meet expectations despite the world cup of rugby and stable state of construction sector.

Deficit in the balance of paymnent in New Zealand decreased to -2.76 billion in January against -4.75 billion. Economists predicted that level of deficit would be -2.77 billion NZD.

According to the data released earlier, export prices in New Zealand rose by 1.7% q/q in Q4 against -4.0% in Q3. Import prices increased by 3.2% on quarterly basis for the reporting period against previous decline of 3.4%. Index of business activity BNZ in the service sector rose to 53.6 points in January against preliminary expectations of 50.9 points. The report showed that growth has been recorded in four out of five components of the index; orders of new companies have become the main catalyst for growth. Employment in the sector increased to 54.2 points which is the maximum since November 2007. Activity index in the service sector fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balance amounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion in November. However, this positive factor has already been incorporated into the price. Statistics released last week showed that activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand increased by 1.3% in Q4 against the decline of 1.4% earlier.

Earlier Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% as expected. RBNZ noted in the comments that there is no point to revise interest rate at the moment. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive and indicates that employment sector as one of the main supportive factors for the economy can guarantee stability even in case of external pessimistic impact.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD went into negative area, breaking through the signal line from top to bottom and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is ready to enter into the oversold zone. It gives a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0360 the pair will go to 1.0350 и 1.0310.

Local trading floors continue to respond to the developments in China and ongoing slowdown in Chinese economy, causing significant sales in the AUD. Oil to the fuel was added by the report of the Australian government on commodity market which stated that export prices for energy resources (coal) will grow very slowly which will put pressure on the currency.

Indeed, there all grounds to believe that demand for iron ore in China will slow down. Investors reacted negatively to the latest comments of BNR company in the middle of the week. Company's management circulated a press- release expressing dissatisfaction with the tax on royalties. The AUD traders were quick to close positions.
Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Such data can trigger the revise of the interest rate in ARB next month.
Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

Meeting of the RBA last week has neutral outcome: interest rate was kept unchanged at the level of 4.25% per annum. Comments of the Bank's Governor Mr. Stevens were just plain: he said that the state of Australian economy enables to keep monetary policy unchanged.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY is in the positive area and is moving along the signal line not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 83.30 the pair USD/JPY will go to 82.10 and 81.80.

The Bank of Japan stated yesterday that rules of Volkner should be reviewed more than once, in case of Japan, adoption for this rule will mean that all profits from Japanese state bonds will be abated. The Regulator will advance his opinion at the meeting of Big Twenty.

Statistics released this week showed that trade balance in the Country of the Rising Sun amounted to -0.31 trillion yen in February against -0.49 trillion yen. This is a negative signal.

The key factor of growth for the Yen is repatriation of the Japanese capital at the end of the fiscal year in the Country of the rising Sun. (The end of the fiscal year is on 31 March in Japan). Country's GDP has been revised upward although it is still in the negative zone. Trade balance of the country remains in deficit. Statistics released earlier showed that real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q.

Minutes of the February meeting of the Bank of Japan showed that some members of the Bank think that it would be expedient to establish threshold for inflation target at the level of 1-2%, while one vote was given for the target at 2%. The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted earlier that the regulator intends to ease monetary policy until inflation reaches the target of 1%.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and entered positive zone, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator left beyond the oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9140 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9150 and 0.9180. Consolidation close to the current levels is possible at the end of the week.

It became known on Thursday that imports increased by 0.7% y/y to the level of 14.04 billion francs in February, while imports rose only by 1.2% y/y (16.72 billion francs) last month. Balance of trade surplus amounted to 2.68 billion francs in February increasing against the previous level of 1.5 billion francs.

Volume of industrial output in manufacturing sector of Switzerland declined in Q4- volume of industrial output amounted to -1.4% y/y for the reporting period against the level of -1.9% in Q3. Orders of new industrial enterprises fell by 2% in Q4 2011. According to statistics released earlier, unemployment rate in Switzerland amounted to 3.4% in February, remaining unchanged.

GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). This is good data, indicating that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо +0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year.
Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it demonstrates the signs of recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics released on Monday showed that real retail sales increased by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y in January.

Three- month Libor rate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB views on monetary policy remained unchanged.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5800 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5780 and 1.5750. Consolidation close to the current levels is possible.

According to statistics released this week, retail sales in the UK fell by 0.8% m/m (+1.0% y/y) in February. At the same time sales excluding fuel decreased for the same amount last month; index in January was revised upward to +0.3% m/m.

The Pound negatively reacted to statistics which was below forecast, although sales of the GBP started before the data was made public.
It seems that weak labour sector and high level of inflation continue to put pressure on the retails sales index.

Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector prevents economic recovery of the country in general.

Situation, however is not that hopeless, for example, total volume of mortgage lending in the UK amounted to 10.7 billion pounds in February against 10.65 billion pounds in January. The data demonstrates stability in the construction market, which is favourable for the national economy in short term. 

According to the representative of British monetary authorities, Mr Osborn, assessment of efficiency of the current budget is possible only when the indices are summed up statistically. Only after that it is be clear if the budget promotes economic growth or not. Osborn assured population of Great Britain that social programs, such as pensioners' payments will not be affected when a new budget will be adopted; however tax burden for the well-off people will be increased.

The pair EUR/USD finished trading downward on Thursday despite strong American statistics.

Trades for the pair closed near 1.3180 against starting level at 1.3216.

Market did not respond too energetically to the U.S. employment statistics, which was positive: number of claims for unemployment benefits fell by 5 thousand for a week, to the level of 348 thousand, which is the absolute minimum since 2008. 

The joy did not last long: representative of EU Mr. Van Rompuy noted late afternoon on Thursday that situation is Europe was at stake in November-December and it is far from being perfect. State of affairs in Spain raises concerns again.

Therefore, the major pair fails to consolidate above 1.3230/1.3250.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.3100-1.3220 at the trading session on Friday.

At the Forex currency market the British Pound rate is volatile on Thursday since speculative demand for the Euro hasbeen resumed.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; we can observe the rise, which indicates that buy signal is being maintained. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the overbought zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: testing and breakdown of the level 1.5930; if these succeed, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5950 and 1.6010. Specified narrow range above represents strong resistance for pair’s quotes; however long-term trend is upward. 

Representative of the Bank of England Mr.Broadbent noted last week, that he did not approve abolition of the economic stimulus program in short term. He believes that scrapping of the stimulus program could be well grounded later but only if dramatic improvement will be made in the lending and financing sector.   

Representative of the Bank of England Mr.Miles noted earlier that inflation in Britain will continue to decline, and this will be triggered by reduction in a number of jobs and decline in reserve capacity. At the same time, policy of quantitative easing will promote the risein assets price and increase in demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of assets purchase; however he believes that if it were not for QE, domestic demand would have been significantly affected.

Mr.Weale noted earlier that the rates couldbe raised before the regulator would start to roll back stimulus measures. At the same time, Weale does not think that easy attitude to inflation for thesake of economic stimulus is a good idea.

Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector prevents economic recovery of the country in general.

According to the latest data, total volume of mortgage lending inthe UK amounted to 10.7 billion pounds in February against 10.65 billion pounds in January. The data demonstrates stability in the construction market, which is favourable for the national economy in short term.

At the trading session in the currency section of the MICEX, the Russian Rouble rate remains virtually unchanged in pairing with the USD which can be explained by differently directed movement at the world capital markets. Starting session did not bring any changes in the pair USD/Rouble.

The trading session for the USD started at the level of 29.27roubles (+6 kopeks). The Euro amounted to 38.76 roubles (+12 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value started at 33.53 roubles on Thursday (+3 kopeks).

Therefore, strengthening in the USD and the rise in the Euro is associated with reduction of the global prices for oil and general strengthening in European currency at Forex amidpreservation of uncertainty in the world capital markets.

Presumably the pair USD/Roublewill be in the channel of 29.10-29.35 Roubles for USD at the trading session onThursday.

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate continues to consolidate at the level of 0.9110 on Thursday amid tension which has been built up in Europe over further development oflevers of pressure on peripheral countries of Eurozone. Declaration of the headof the U.S Federal Reserve about reluctance to assist Europe in solving debtproblems has had its impact as well. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes down in the negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone and is also giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9110 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9070 and 0.9050. The top level of the pair is restricted 0.9135. 

Macro-economic situation in Switzerland is stable on Thursday morning.

The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо+0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Last year interventions cost 17.8 billion francs to Swiss National Bank. Mr. Jordan from SNB commenting this information said that restriction in the growth of Franc has had its effect onthe market and helped to stabilize outcomes of the year. 

Trade balance amounted to -1.553 billion francs in January against the forecast of -2.50 billion francs. Thereport demonstrated that export reduced by 3.4% last month against preliminaryexpectations of growth of 6.1% last month; import rose by 3.6% (preliminaryforecast was  +7.6% m/m).

Three-month Libor rate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB views onmonetary policy remained unchanged.

According to statistics releasedearlier, unemployment rate in Switzerland amounted to 3.4% in February-nochanges have been reported. 

GDP in the country rose by 0.1%q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). This isgood data, indicating that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it demonstrates thesigns of recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 pointsin February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics released on Mondayshowed that real retail sales increased by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y in January.  

Inflation fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8%y/y) in January against expectations of decline of 0.2% m/m. This has been the fourth consecutive decline in the index and maximal fall since October 2009.

At the Forex currency market theNew Zealand rate shifted downward from yesterday’s level of 0.8300,reflecting general strengthening of the position of the USD at Forex market.Quotes will have to test support level of 0.8150 on Thursday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicatorfor the pair NZD/USD goes down in the positive area, reflecting“bull” divergence and indicating low purchases and starting sales.Stochastic Oscillator has left overbought zone and goes down in the neutralzone giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off themarket: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8150 the pair will go to 0.8100and 0.8090.  

Macro-economic situation in NewZealand is stable. External background bears the most influence on NZD. 

Trade balance deficit in NewZealand decreased to -2.76 billion in January against -4.75 billion. Economistspredicted that level of deficit would be -2.77 billion NZD. 

According to the data releasedearlier, export prices in New Zealand rose by 1.7% q/q in Q4 against -4.0% inQ3. Import prices increased by 3.2% on quarterly basis for the reporting periodagainst previous decline of 3.4%.

Index of business activity BNZ inthe service sector rose to 53.6 points in January against preliminaryexpectations of 50.9 points. The report showed that growth has been recorded infour out of five components of the index; orders of new companies have becomethe main catalyst for growth. Employment in the sector increased to 54.2 pointswhich is the maximum since November 2007. 

House price index REINZ fell by1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 againstthe level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive and indicates thatemployment sector as one of the main supportive factors for the economy canguarantee stability even in case of external pessimistic impact.

Activity index in the servicesector fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balance amounted to+NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion in November.However, this positive factor has already been incorporated into the price. GDPin New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of+0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) against thelevel of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1.

Statistics released last weekshowed that that activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand increasedby 1.3% in Q4 against the decline of 1.4% earlier. The data supported thecurrency.

Earlier Reserve Bank of NewZealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% as expected. RBNZnoted in the comments that there is no point to revise interest rate at themoment.

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is under pressure after reversing from the target resistance level at 1.0640. The first support level goes through the level of1.0450, which is the previous level. Current target level of reduction is at1.0370. The specified levels are oversold foundations of slow moving average of Ichimoku indicator.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD went into negative area, after moving through the signal line from top to bottom and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down, pushing away from the overbought zone and is not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: in case ofbreakdown at the level of 1.0500 the pair will go to 1.0450 and 1.0370.

China is one of the main trading partners of Australia; therefore the AUD actively reacts to statistics fromthis country. Latest statistics from China did not make investors happy.

Comments of the BNRC Companyadded oil into the fuel. Company’s management circulated a press- releaseexpressing dissatisfaction with the tax on royalties; the AUD traders were quick to close positions. The pair AUD/USD fell by one figure instantly.

Inflation in Q4 showed zerogrowth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis.Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of0.2%.

Such data can trigger the reviseof the interest rate in ARB next month.

Meeting of the RBA last week hasneutral outcome: interest rate was kept unchanged at the level of 4.25% perannum. Comments of the Bank’s Governor Mr. Stevens were just plain: hesaid that the state of Australian economy enables to keep monetary policyunchanged.

Statistics released earliershowed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. 

It became known earlier thatindex of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate maintains tendency to consolidate at the achieved levels. Thegrowth of the currency pair USD/JPY has shifted into correction from thereached highs of 84.00 and target now reduces to 82.40.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator forthe pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area and maintains a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come out of the overbought zone and is giving a sellsignal.

Forex recommendations: in case ofbreakdown at 83.00 the pair will go to 82.40.

The key factor of growth for theYen is repatriation of the Japanese capital at the end of the fiscal year inthe Country of the rising Sun. (The end of the fiscal year begins on 31 Marchin Japan).

Country’s GDP has been revised upward although it is still in the negative zone. Trade balance of thecountry remains in deficit. 

Statistics released earlier showed that real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Inaddition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4% q/qlast quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q.

No changes took place at the meeting of the Bank of Japan in March: the Regulator left the interest rate inthe range of 0-0.1% per annum; assets repurchase program has not been revisedeither. 

Presently, volume of assets repurchase program amounts to 30 billion yen; it has been expanded by 10billion yen a month earlier. Government insisted on expanding QE again; however the Bank did not take such decision. 

The Bank of Japan clarified that at the moment the Bank has been working on expansion of lending program aiming to stimulate economic growth up to 3.5 trillion yen from 3 trillion yenearlier. 

The head of the Bank of Japan Mr.Shirakawa noted earlier that the regulator intends to easy monetary policyuntil inflation reaches the target of 1%.

Minutes of the February meeting of the Bank of Japan showed that some members of the Bank think that it wouldbe expedient to establish thres hold for inflation target at the level of 1-2%, while one vote was given for the target at 2%. 

Correction will be continued forthe pair EUR/USD on Thursday as statement of the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve B. Bernanke about preservation of the monetary policy in the countryhas affected Forex currency market.

Trades closed at the level of1.3200 on Wednesday against starting session at 1.3220.

The reason for enthusiasm for the USD was raised by the statement of Bernanke that the USD preserves stability over the last years and that FR is content with the strong dollar.

On the other hand, high pricesfor energy resources can cause slowdown of economic growth in short term. European monetary authorities should not impose German type of economy to theperipheral countries of Eurozone.

Mostlikely the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.3220-1.3150 at the tradingsession on Thursday.

At the Forex currency market the pair GBP/USD goes up on Wednesday due to overall weakness in the American currency andspeculative demand for the Euro. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pairGBP/USD remains in the positive area; we can observe the rise, indicating thatbuy signal is being maintained. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the overboughtzone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: testing and breakdownof the level 1.5930 are going to take place,if these succeeds, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5950 and 1.6010. Specifiednarrow range represents strong resistance for pair’s quotes; long-termtrend is upward. 

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Broadbent noted last week, that he did not approve abolition of the economicstimulus program in short term. He believes that scrapping of the stimulus programcould be well grounded later but only if dramatic improvement will be made inthe lending and financing sector.   

Representative of the Bank of England Mr.Miles noted earlier that inflation in Britain will continue to decline, andthis will be triggered by reduction in a number of jobs and decline in reservecapacity. At the same time, policy of quantitative easing will promote the risein assets price and increase in demand. Miles found it difficult to assess theimpact of assets purchase; however he believes that if it were not for QE,domestic demand would have been significantly affected.

Mr.Weale noted earlier that the rates couldbe raised earlier than the regulator would start to roll back stimulusmeasures. At the same time, Weale does not think that easy attitude toinflation for the sake of economic stimulus is a good idea.

According to the released data, total volume of mortgage lendingin the UK amounted to 10.7 billion pounds in February against 10.65 billionpounds in January. The data demonstrates stability in the construction market,which is favourable for the national economy in short term. 

Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February,number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector preventseconomic recovery of the country in general.

The Japanese Yen rate maintains trend to weaken at the Forex currency market this week. Unrestrained growth ofthe currency pair USD/JPY has been going on for seven consecutive tradingsessions: from the level of 76.50 to the current highs of 84.00 and targeted growth at 84.75. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicatorfor the pair USD/JPY is going up in the positive area and maintains a buysignal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving abuy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case ofbreakdown at 84.00 the pair will go to 84.00 and 84.75.

No changes took place at themeeting of the Bank of Japan in March: the Regulator left the interest rate inthe range of 0-0.1% per annum; assets repurchase program has not been revisedeither. 

Presently, volume of assets repurchase program amounts to 30 billion yen; it has been expanded by 10billion yen a month earlier. Government insisted on expanding QE again; howeverthe Bank did not take such decision. 

The Bank of Japan clarified that at the moment they have been working on expansion of lending program aiming to stimulate economic growth up to 3.5 trillion yen from 3 trillion yen earlier. 

The head of the Bank of Japan Mr.Shirakawa noted earlier that the regulator intends to easy monetary policy untilinflation reaches the target of 1%.

Minutes of the February meeting of the Bank of Japan showed that some members of the Bank think that it wouldbe expedient to establish thres hold for inflation target at the level of 1-2%,while one vote was given for the target at 2%.

Note: that GDP has been revisedupward although it is still in the negative zone. Trade balance of the countryremains in deficit. 

Statistics released earliershowed that real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Inaddition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion against theforecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4% q/qlast quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q.

In addition, decline in the Yenwas caused by rumours about revolution in China. There has not been anyofficial information about it, however mass media in the West reported unexplained motions in Beijing and an increase in number of police and combat equipment.

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate keeps on growing this week, due to short term improvements inthe situation with Greek debt problem and investors’ speculative sentiments. 

Forex forecast:  MACD indicatorfor the pair USD/CHF goes down in the negative area and is giving a sellsignal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into the oversold zone and is alsogiving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case ofbreakdown at 0.9110 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9070 и0.9050. 

Macro-economic situation in Switzerland is stable on Wednesday morning.

According to statistics released earlier, unemployment rate in Switzerland amounted to 3.4% in February-nochanges have been reported. 

GDP in the country rose by 0.1%q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). This isgood data, indicating that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it demonstrates thesigns of recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 pointsin February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics released on Mondays howed that real retail sales increased by 4.4% in January against the growthby 1.7% y/y in January.  

Inflation fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8%y/y) in January against expectations of decline of 0.2% m/m. This has been thefourth consecutive decline in the index and maximal fall since October 2009.

The regulator expects thatinflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо+0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

Last year interventions cost 17.8billion francs to Swiss National Bank. Mr. Jordan from SNB commenting this information said that restriction in the growth of Franc has had its effect onthe market and helped to stabilize outcomes of the year. 

Trade balance amounted to -1.553billion francs in January against the forecast of -2.50 billion francs. Thereport demonstrated that export reduced by 3.4% last month against preliminary expectations of growth of 6.1% last month; import rose by 3.6% (preliminary forecast was  +7.6% m/m).

Three- month Libor rate of SwissNational Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB views onmonetary policy remained unchanged.

At the trading session in the currencysection of the MICEX, the Russian Rouble rate hasmaintained its positions in pairing with the USD with the help of mixed sentiments at the world capital markets. Trades on Wednesday started withslight decline in the USD versus the Rouble, due to overall strengthening of the Euro at Forex market. 

The trading session for the USD started at the level of 29.17 roubles (-3 kopeks). The Euro amounted to 38.76 roubles (+5 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.48 roubles on Tuesday (-1 kopeks).

Therefore, decrease in the USD and increase in the Euro is associated with general strengthening of the European currency at forex market and due to uncertainty which is still preserved at the world capital markets.

Presumably the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.10-29.35 Roubles for USD at the trading session on Wednesday.

At the Forex currency market theAustralian Dollar rate had reached its target level at 1.0640 yesterday andafter that quotes reversed downward. First support level was reached quickly at1.0500. Current target for decline is at the level of 1.0370. Specified levelsare oversold foundations for slow moving average of Ichimoku indicator.

Forex forecast: MACD indicatorfor the pair AUD/USD has shifted into negative area, after moving through thesignal line from top to bottom and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillatorgoes down, pushing away from the overbought zone and is not giving a clearsignal.

Forex recommendations: in case ofbreakdown at the level of 1.0500 the pair will go to 1.0400 and 1.0370.

Comments of the BNRC Company hasa negative impact on the rate of the AUD. Company’s management wasstrongly concerned and circulated a press- release expressing dissatisfactionwith the tax on royalties; the AUD traders were quick to close positions. Dueto these comments the pair AUD/USD instantly fell to 1.0550.

China is one of the main tradingpartners of Australia; therefore the AUD reacts strongly to statistics fromthis country. Latest statistics from China did not make investors happy either.

It became known earlier thatinflation expectations in Australia were at the level of 2.7% in March againstthe level of 2.8% in February.

Inflation in Q4 showed zerogrowth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis.Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%.

Statistics released earliershowed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier.Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5thousand. 

Such data can trigger the reviseof the interest rate in ARB next month.

Meeting of the RBA last week hasneutral outcome: interest rate was kept unchanged at the level of 4.25% perannum. Comments of the Bank’s Governor Mr. Stevens were just plain: hesaid that the state of Australian economy enables to keep monetary policyunchanged.

At the Forex currency market theNew Zealand rate has interrupted upward movement, reflecting overallstrengthening of the positions of the USD at Forex market. Quotes are to go upto the support level of 0.8150 on Wednesday. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicatorfor the pair NZD/USD goes down in the positive area reflecting“bull” divergence and indicating low purchases and starting sales.Stochastic Oscillator has left overbought zone and goes down in the neutralzone giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off themarket: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8170 the pair will go to 0.8150 и0.8090. 

Activity index in the servicesector fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balance amounted to+NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion in November.However, this positive factor has already been incorporated into the price. GDPin New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of+0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) against thelevel of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1.

Statistics released last weekshowed that that activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand increasedby 1.3% in Q4 against the decline of 1.4% earlier. The data supported thecurrency.

Situation in New Zealand seemsstable in terms of macro-statistics. External background bears the mostinfluence on NZD. 

Earlier Reserve Bank of NewZealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% as expected. RBNZnoted in the comments that there is no point to revise interest rate at themoment.

According to the data releasedearlier, export prices in New Zealand rose by 1.7% q/q in Q4 against -4.0% inQ3. Import prices increased by 3.2% on quarterly basis for the reporting periodagainst previous decline of 3.4%.

Index of business activity BNZ inthe service sector rose to 53.6 points in January against preliminary expectationsof 50.9 points. The report showed that growth has been recorded in four out offive components of the index; orders of new companies have become the maincatalyst for growth. Employment in the sector increased to 54.2 points which isthe maximum since November 2007. 

House price index REINZ fell by1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 againstthe level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive and indicates thatemployment sector as one of the main supportive factors for the economy canguarantee stability even in case of external pessimistic impact.

The EUR/USD is being corrected onWednesday as the Forex currency market has been affected by the comments of theU.S. Federal Reserve head about problems in the economy of the country.

Trades stopped at the level of1.3220 on Tuesday against starting session level of 1.3240.

Enthusiasm for the USD wasstirred up by declaration of Mr. Bernanke that economic situation willultimately improve, prospects for economic development are optimistic.

Members of the U.S. Federalreserve intend to continue to watch closely outgoing data on economic reportsand analyze financial indices.

Mostlikely the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.3230-1.3150 at the tradingsession on Wednesday.

At the trading session in the currency section of the MICEX, the RussianRouble rate maintains its positions in pairing withthe USD due to mixed sentiments of investors at the world capital market.Trades on Tuesday started with slight decrease of the USD against the Roubleand general strengthening of the Euro at Forex.

The trading session for the USD ыефкеув at the level of 29.17 roubles (-4 kopeks). The Euro amounted to 38.6roubles (+4 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.41roubles on Tuesday (unchanged).

Therefore, declinein the USD and the growth in the Euro are both related to associated withoverall strengthening of European currency at the Forex market and due to preservationof uncertainty at the world capital market. 

Presumably thepair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.10-29.35 Roubles for USD at thetrading session on Tuesday.

At the Forex currencymarket the pair GBP/USD has increased at the closing session on Monday amid thesurge of market enthusiasm and overall weakening in the American currency. 

Forex forecast: MACDindicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it has shifted tosideways movement, and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator isgrowing in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations:in case of breakdown at 1.5930, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5950 and 1.6010. The specified narrow range bearsstrong resistance for pair’s quotes, at the same time long-term trend is stillupward.

The data on thebalance of foreign trade was better than that in December. 

However, the Pound’s goodspirits were spoiled at the end of the week by the other data: volume of productionin the construction sector fell by 2.3% y/y in January; volume of industrialoutput declined by 0.4% m/m (-3.8%y/y).

Index of consumer sentiment GFK/NOP was at thelevel of -29 points. House prices index Hometrack remained unchanged in onmonthly basis in February (-1.4% y/y).

Estimates of GFKNOPand that of the Bank of England showed that annual inflation expectationsamounted to 3.5% in February versus estimate of 4.1% in November.

Representative of theBank of England Mr. Broadbent noted last week, that he did not supportabolition of the economic stimulus program in the short term. He believes thatscrapping of the stimulus program could well grounded later but only ifdramatic improvement will be made in the lending and financing sector.   

Representative of theBank of England Mr. Miles noted earlier that inflation in Britain will continueto decline, and this will be triggered by reduction in a number of jobs andreserve capacity. At the same time, policy of quantitative easing will promotethe rise in assets price and increase in demand. Miles found it difficult toassess the impact of assets purchase; however he believes that if it were notfor QE, domestic demand would have been significantly affected.

Mr.Wealenoted earlier that the rates could be raised before the regulator would rollback stimulus measures. At the same time, Weale does not think that easy attitudeto inflation for the sake of economic stimulus is a good idea.

Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, numberof unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector preventseconomic recovery of the country in general.

A meeting of the Bankof England which was held last Thursday demonstrated that a split of opinionsin MPC is still preserved. Interest rate was left unchanged at the level of0.5% per annum as well as the volume of QE. The program of assets repurchase QEwas increased by 50 billion pounds in February to the level of 325 billionpounds.

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc ratedemonstrates increase at the beginning of the week due to stable externalbackground and investors’ positive sentiments.

Forex forecast:  MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes up inthe negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has comeout of the overbought zone and is also giving a sell signal.

Forexrecommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9110 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9070и 0.9050. Consolidation close to the current levels ispossible.

Marco-economicsituation in Switzerland is stable on the Tuesday morning.

Last year interventionscost 17.8 billion francs to Swiss National Bank. Mr. Jordan from SNB commentingthis information said that restriction in the growth of Franc has had its effecton the market and helped to stabilize outcomes of the year. 

Trade balanceamounted to -1.553 billion francs in January against the forecast of -2.50billion francs. The report demonstrated that export reduced by 3.4% last monthagainst preliminary expectations of growth of 6.1% last month; import rose by3.6% (preliminary forecast was  +7.6%m/m).

Three- month Liborrate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNBviews on monetary policy remained unchanged, except for the economic forecast.

The regulator expects that inflation in2012-2014 will be from 0.6% tо +0.6%, GDP growthwill be of 1.0% this year.

GDP in the countryrose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1%y/y). This is good data, indicating that Swiss economy is getting used toexpensive Franc. Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however itdemonstrates the signs of recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increasedto 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statisticsreleased on Monday showed that real retail sales increased by 4.4% in Januaryagainst the growth by 1.7% y/y in January. 

Inflation fell by 0.4%m/m (-0.8% y/y) in January against expectations of decline of 0.2% m/m. Thishas been the fourth consecutive decline in the index and maximal fall sinceOctober 2009.

According tostatistics released yesterday unemployment rate in Switzerland amounted to 3.4%in February-with no change.   

At the Forexcurrency market the Australian Dollar rate has reached monetary target at thelevel of 1.0640. All attention will be focused on this level: if it will bepreserved there will be new sales in the pair; if this level is exceeded, thepair will go to 1.0685. The identified levels are oversold basis on the movingaverage indicator Ichimoku.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD, it has come through thesignal line from top to bottom and maintains a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up, pushing away from oversold zone and is shaping a buysignal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0640 the pair will go to 1.0665 and1.0685.

It became knownyesterday that inflation expectations in Australia were at the level of 2.7% inMarch against the level of 2.8% in February.

Earlier, AustralianDollar rate has to cope with weak data on Chinese economy which was belowexpectations; it concerns the levels of export and the size of foreign tradedeficit in particular. China has been one of the main trading partners ofAustralia; therefore the AUD reacts strongly to statistics from this country.

Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in thecountry against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail salesfell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%.

Statisticsreleased earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in Januaryagainst 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecastof growth of 5 thousand. 

Such data cancause the revise of the interest rate in ARB next month.

According to therecent release of Australian National Association of Retailers, growth ofinternet sales has become a catalyst for decline in employment sector in theretail trade sector. Forecast of the Association shows that by 2015 retailsales sector will lose half of jobs: it will happen if government does notabolish taxes for companies in this sector and if government does not supportabolishment of import duties on goods purchase.

According tostatistics of the Association, internet sales amounted to 4% of total sales in2011; the index can rise to 9.5% by 2015.

Meeting of ARBlast week has neutral outcome: interest rate was kept unchanged at the level of4.25% per annum. Comments of the Bank’s Governor Mr. Stevens were just plain: hesaid that the state of Australian economy enables to keep monetary policyunchanged.

At the Forexcurrency market the New Zealand Dollar rate continued to be traded upward onMonday, reflecting improvements in market environment. Quotes will finally gainthe foothold above oversold resistance level at 0.8270.on Tuesday 

Forex forecast: MACDindicator for the pair NZD/USD is regaining in the positive area and is readyto break through the signal line from top to bottom giving a weak sell signal.Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations:off the market: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8260 the pair will go to0.8270 and 0.8290. Consolidation close to the current levels is possible.

Statisticsreleased last week showed that activity in the manufacturing sector of NewZealand increased by 1.3% in Q4 against the decline of 1.4% earlier. The data supported the currency.

According to thedata released earlier, export prices in New Zealand rose by 1.7% q/q in Q4against -4.0% in Q3. Import prices increased by 3.2% on quarterly basis for thereporting period against previous decline of 3.4%.

Index of businessactivity BNZ in the service sector rose to 53.6 points in January againstpreliminary expectations of 50.9 points. The report showed that growth has beenrecorded in four out of five components of the index; orders of new companieshave become the main catalyst for growth. Employment in the sector increased to54.2 points which is the maximum since November 2007. 

Situation in NewZealand seems stable in terms of macro-statistics. External background bears the most influence on NZD. 

Earlier ReserveBank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% asexpected. RBNZ noted in the comments that there is no point to revise interestrate at the moment.

House price indexREINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectationsof decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q42011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive andindicates that employment sector as one of the main supportive factors for theeconomy can guarantee stability even in case of external pessimistic impact.

Activity index inthe service sector fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balanceamounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion inNovember. However, this positive factor has already been incorporated into theprice. GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against theforecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y)against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1.

The pair EUR/USD goes up at the trading session onTuesday as positive statistics from Eurozone has produced an effect on the Forexcurrency market.

Trades on Monday closed at the level of 1.3220 versus starting level at 1.3140.

The data on Eurozone released yesterday has become the reason forenthusiasm: balance of payment surplus of ECB increased for the reportingperiod amounting to 4.5 billion euro against 3.3 billion euro. Earlier we wereable to observe attempt to release tension over the major acute issue- Europeandebt problem. Market received grounds to start purchases due to the statementof the Greek Prime Minister about resuming growth of GDP in less than two yearsperiod, while new restructure of the debt will not be required.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.3230-1.3310 at thetrading session on Tuesday.

The pair EUR/USD concluded trading session with thegrowth on Friday amid positive American statistics.

Trades on Fridayconcluded at the level of 1.3174 versus the start level at 1.3080.

The U.S. data releasedlast night became the reason for enthusiasm. Number of claims for unemploymentbenefits decreased by 14 thousand within a week, to the level of 351 thousand whichwas above the forecast. In addition, index of producer prices rose by 0.4% m/min February which also supported positive sentiments at the trading floors.

As long as sharpissues of European debt problems went to the sidelines, the market has theground to start purchases. 

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3050-1.3220at the trading session on Monday.               

In the currency section of the MICEX on Friday, the Russian Rouble rate concluded trades with the rise in pairing with the USDamid positive sentiments at the world capital market.

The trading session for the USD closed at the level of29.35 roubles. The Euro finished at the level of 38.43 roubles.

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.46roubles (+4 kopeks).

Therefore, theRouble has gained support from generally favourable sentiments in the marketand the rise of Euro/USD at Forex.

Presumably thepair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.30-29.45 Roubles for USD at thetrading session on Monday.

At the Forex currency market the New Zealand Dollarrate was traded upward last Friday reflecting positive sentiment in the market.

Forex forecast:MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair NZD/USD it is going down, andis prepared to break signal line from top to bottom and is giving a sellsignal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing in the neutral zone and is giving abuy signal.

Forexrecommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8250 the pair will goto 0.8260 and 0.8290. Consolidation at the current level is possible.

Situation in NewZealand seems stable in terms of macro-statistics. External background bearsthe most influence on NZD. 

Earlier ReserveBank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% asexpected. RBNZ noted in the comments that there is no point to revise interestrate at the moment.

Index of businessactivity in the service sector BNZ rose to 53.6 points in January againstpreliminary expectations of 50.9 points. The report showed that growth has beenrecorded in four out of five components of the index; orders of new companieshave become the main catalyst for growth. Employment in the sector increased to54.2 points which is the maximum since November 2007. 

House price indexREINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectationsof decline 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country declined to 6.3% in Q42011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive andindicates that employment sector being one of the main supportive factors forthe economy can enable stability even in case of external pessimisticinfluence.

Statisticsreleased last week showed that activity in the manufacturing sector of NewZealand increased by 1.3% in Q4 against the fell of 1.4% earlier. The datasupported the currency. According to the previous data export price in NewZealand rose by 1.7% q/q in Q4 against -4.0% in Q3. Import prices rose by 3.2%on quarterly basis for the reported period against decline of 3.4%.

Activity index inthe service sector fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balanceamounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion inNovember. However positive factor of the index has already been incorporatedinto the price. GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3against the forecast of +0.6% on Quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q(+1.5% y/y) against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1.

The Australian Dollar rate has run a surplus  at the Forex currency market last Friday dueto the surge of  market enthusiasm.

Forex forecast: MACDindicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the positive area, it is ready to crossthe signal line from top to bottom and maintains a sell signal. StochasticOscillator goes up pushing away from oversold zone and is shaping a buy signal.

Forex recommendations:in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0590 the pair will go to 1.0610 and1.0630.

Recall that salesof the Australian Dollar intensified in the middle of last week due to decreaseof interest in risk among investors.

According to the recentrelease of the National Association of Retailers in Australia, growth ofinternet sales has became a catalyst for decline in  employment sector in the retail trade sector. Forecastof the Association shows that by 2015 sector of retail sales will lose half ofjobs: it will happen if government does not abolish taxes for companies in thissector and government will not promote abolishing of import duties on goodspurchases.

According tostatistics of the Association, internet sales amounted to 4% of total sales in2011 by 2015 this index can rise to 9.5%. 

It became knownearlier that inflation expectations in Australia were at the level of 2.7% inMarch against the level of 2.8% in February. 

Australian Dollarrate has to regain from weak data on Chinese economy which was beyondexpectations; it concerns levels of export and size of foreign trade deficit inparticular. As China is one of the main trade partner of Australia the AUDreacts actively to statistics from this country. Inflation in Q4 showed zerogrowth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis.

Retail sales fellby 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Meeting of ARB lastweek has neutral outcome: interest rate was kept unchanged at the level of4.25% per annum. Comments of the Bank Governor Mr. Stevens were quite stock. Henoted that the state of Australian economy enables to keep monetary policyunchanged.

Statistics releasedearlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1%earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast ofgrowth of 5 thousand. Such data can cause revise of the interest rate in ARB nextmonth.

At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen has beentraded slightly upward at the end of last week continuing the trend ofThursday. Buyers are reluctant to come back to JPY after mass sales. 

Forex forecast:MACD indicator is going up in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY andmaintains a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zoneand maintains a previous signal.

Forex recommendations:in case of breakdown at 83.40 the pair will go to 83.60 and 84.00.

It became known earlierthat revised index of coincident indicators in Japan amounted to -0.3% m/m inJanuary, revised index of leading indicators demonstrated growth of 1.1% onmonthly basis.

Minutes of the Februarymeeting of the Bank of Japan said that some members of the Bank think that itwould be expedient to establish threshold for inflation target at the level of1-2%, while one vote was given for the target at 2%.

No changes tookplace at the meeting of the Bank of Japan in March: the Regulator left theinterest rate in the range of 0-0.1% per annum, assets repurchase program hasnot been revised either. Presently, volume of assets repurchase program amountsto 30 billion yen; it has been expanded by 10 billion yen a month earlier.Government insisted on expanding QE again; however the Bank did not take such decision.The Bank of Japan clarified that they have been dealing with expansion oflending program targeted at stimulation of economic growth to 3.5 trillion yenfrom 3 trillion yen earlier. 

Statisticsreleased earlier showed that real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y)in Q4. In addition, balance of current account amounted to -Y437.3 billion againstthe forecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4%q/q last quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q.

Note that GDP hasbeen revised upward although it is still in the negative zone. Trade balance ofthe country is still in the state of deficit. 

In addition, indexof economic observers in Japan reduced to 45.9 points in February against theforecast of 46 points. The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa notedearlier that the regulator intends to easy monetary policy until inflationreaches the target of 1%.

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate has beentraded with  the increase at the end oflast week due to stable external background and positive investors’ sentiments.

Forex forecast:MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes up in the negative area and is givinga buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come out of the overbought zone and isgiving a sell signal.

Forexrecommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9150 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9130and 0.9110. Consolidation close to the current levels is possible.

Marco-economicsituation in Switzerland is stable on the Monday morning.

GDP in the countryrose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero changes (+1.1%y/y). The data is quite good, which means that Swiss economy is getting used toexpensive Franc. Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however itdemonstrated the signs of recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increasedto 49.0 points in February  against theforecast of 48.5 points. Statistics released on Monday showed that real retailsales increased by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y inJanuary.  

According to thedata released earlier unemployment rate in Switzerland amounted to 3.4% inFebruary, with no changes. 

Last year interventionscost 17.8 billion francs to Swiss National Bank. Mr. Jordan from SNB saidcommenting this information that restriction on the growth of Franc has itsaffect on the market and helped to stabilize outcomes of the year. Trade balanceamounted to -1.553 billion francs in January against the forecast of -2.50billion francs. The report demonstrated that export reduced by 3.4% last monthagainst preliminary expectations of growth by 6.1% last month; import rose by3.6% (preliminary forecast was by +7.6% m/m).

Three month Liborrate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general,the view of SNB on monetary policy has not changed except for the forecast foreconomy. The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be from 0.6% tо +0.6%, growth of GDP will be 1.0% this year.

Inflation fell by 0.4%m/m (-0.8% y/y) in January against expectations of decline of 0.2% m/m. Thishas been the fourth time in a row of the index decline and at the same time itbecame the maximal fall since October 2009.

By 10.20 Moscow time the euro is worth 1.3089 against the close of trading yesterday at 1.3079.

The International Monetary Fund agreed on a package of participation in the program for Greece - 1.65 billion euros will be allocated immediately. In general, the news is already reflected in current prices, so the market is not particularly reacted to the information.

Investors are waiting for the evening, the block statistics on the U.S., which could support the dollar.

Thus, the main couple has a chance to spend the final weeks of calm.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will auction Friday in the range of 1.3010-1.3120.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD is trading in negative territory along the signal line and do not give a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is aimed at the lateral movement and does not give a specific signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 0.9900 the pair will go to 0.9880 and 0.9870.

Canadian dollar supported by high oil prices.

Previous statistics showed that in the IV quarter of economic growth in Canada slowed down - the real GDP in December, up 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m, but in general, in the final quarter of last Gozha Canadian economy grew by only by 0.4% against 1.0% in the III quarter. It affects a strong external influence and the decline of interest in the world to energy in the final year.

According to the head of the Bank of Canada, Mr. Carney, the current levels of interest rates correspond to the monetary situation. Recall that in mid-January, the Bank of Canada kept interest rates at 1.0% per annum, which in general the market is not surprised. Bank of Canada expressed concern on the eve of the state of the housing sector - according to the regulator, 10% decline in this segment may lead to a reduction in consumption by 1%, despite the fact that the bulk of home equity loans used to finance consumption.
CPI in December dipped by 0.6% m / m (+2.3% y / y) vs. -0.1% m / m Despite the evidence, the data require some explanation. The annual CPI increase was minimal in February 2011, but she declined due to inflation decrease the cost of gasoline and other fuels.
Current account balance in the IV quarter was-CAD $ 10,33 billion in pending-CAD $ 9,6 billion in January, prices of manufactured goods to Canada grew by 0.3% while the forecast growth of 0.1%. At the same time the main driver of growth was oil prices.

Last week it was reported that the unemployment rate in Canada in February fell to 7.4% from 7.6% previously, while the number of jobs decreased by 2.8 thousand

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, and decreased signal to sell. Stochastic oscillator starts to grow, starting from the oversold, and generates a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level 1.0550 the pair will go to 1.0560 and 1.0580.

Recall that the sale of the Australian dollar in the middle of the week because of the increased interest in reducing the risk to investors.

It became known yesterday that inflation expectations in Australia in March were at 2.7% vs. 2.8% level in February.

Australian dollar earlier in the week regain the publication of weak data on the Chinese economy, which came out below expectations - in particular, we are talking about the levels of exports and the size of the trade deficit. As China's largest trading partner of Australia, the Aussie is actively responding to statistics from the Middle Kingdom.

Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% qoq. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m / m with growth forecast at 0.2%.
RBA meeting last week ended with a neutral: the interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.
Previous statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the five thousand
Such data may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m / m vs. capacity by 0.2% m / m (-14.6% y / y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household. However, in the comments AiG notes that the revival of the index revealed only 3 of the nine components of the index.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic oscillator remains in the overbought area and retains the same signal strength.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 83.40 pair will go to 83.60 and 84.00.

The macroeconomic situation in the Japanese economy remained stable in the final week.

Previous statistics showed that real GDP revised in the IV quarter was -0.2% q / q (-0.7% y / y). In addition, the current account balance in the IV quarter totaled-Y437, the forecast of 3 billion + Y322, 3 billion, while private consumption in the last quarter grew by 0.4% q / q with growth forecast at 0.3% q / q.

Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory. The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state.
At a meeting of the Bank of Japan, all remained the same: the controller has kept interest rates in the range of 0-0.1% per annum, refusing to be reviewed and the amount of the asset repurchase program.

At the moment the asset repurchase program of 30 billion yen, it was extended only a month earlier to 10 billion yen. This time the government once again urged the BOJ to extend QE, but the bank has not taken such a decision.
The Bank of Japan explained that the extension is now engaged in lending programs to stimulate economic growth to 3.5 trillion yen from 3 trillion yen previously.
In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.
The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, moved to the lateral movement and does not give a clear signal. Stochastic oscillator is overbought and still buy signal.

Forex recommendations: 0.9240 in the breakdown of the USD/CHF will go to 0.9250 and 0.9270. Consolidation likely near the current values.

Three-month Libor rate of the Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at 0%. In general, the opinion of the SNB's monetary policy remained the same - only the changed outlook for the economy.

Thus, the regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 range from -0.6% to +0.6%, while GDP growth this year will be at around 1.0%.
Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8% y/y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m/m This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.3% y/y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y/y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y/y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y / y
According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.
Last year, the intervention cost the Swiss National Bank to 17.8 billion francs. Commenting on this information, Mr. Jordan of the SNB said that limiting the growth of the franc had an impact on the market and help stabilize the results of the year.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is growing in the neutral zone and begins to signal a buy.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 1.5730 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5740 and 1.5760. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

After serving an unpleasant statistics This week the pound down to the area of local minima in the light of what was attractive to buy.

Unemployment rate in February was 5.0%, while the number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand weakness of the labor sector to prevent recovery of the economy as a whole.

Previously, the January data on the balance of foreign trade reached above the December level.

However, in the final of last week, the mood of the pound spoiled other factors: the volume of production in the construction sector in January fell by 2.3% y/y, while industrial output in January dipped by 0.4% m/m (-3.8% g / g).
The index of consumer sentiment GFK/NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y/y).
Past the last Thursday meeting of the Bank of England showed preservation of the split opinions in the IFA. Interest rate left unchanged at 0.5% per annum, as well as the amount of QE. In February, QE asset repurchase program increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds.
Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy.
According to the GFK NOP and the Bank of England, the annual inflation expectations in February amounted to 3.5% from the November estimate of 4.1%.

Thus, the bidding for the USD ended at 29.35 rubles (-12 kopeks), EUR closed trading at around 38.38 rubles (-10 kopeks).

The cost of the currency basket was 33.41 rubles.

Thus, after the morning sales ruble recovered instructive support from the euro/dollar and purchases on world capital markets.

Most likely, the dollar/ruble carry out trades in the hallway 29,25-29,55 Rub/USD on Friday.

By 9.00 Moscow time the euro is worth 1.3033 against the level of the close of trading yesterday at 1.3031.

In the Asian session the pair went to the border of the figure, but to break down the 1.30 is not yet possible. While the sympathies of the market on the side of the U.S. dollar - largely due to the stable performance of its economy. Today in the afternoon are expected to publish data on the labor market in the U.S., and if the statistics will be strong, it again will support USD.

In general, market sentiment remained gloomy.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will auction without going beyond the range of 1.2980-1.3090 on Thursday.

Thus, the bidding for the USD ended at 29.47 rubles (-1 kopeks), EUR finished at around 38.38 rubles (-9 kopeks).

The cost of the currency basket was 33.52 rubles (-5 kopeks).

Thus, the weakness of the euro due to sales in the euro / dollar and the ruble support oil prices.

Presumably, the dollar/ruble will auction in the hallway 29,40-29,55 Rub. / USD on Thursday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing again and the buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 83.70 pair will go to 83.80 and 84.00.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

Previous statistics showed that real GDP revised in the IV quarter was -0.2% q / q (-0.7% y / y). In addition, the current account balance in the IV quarter totaled-Y437, the forecast of 3 billion + Y322, 3 billion, while private consumption in the last quarter grew by 0.4% q / q with growth forecast at 0.3% q / q.
Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory. The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state.
At a meeting of the Bank of Japan, all remained the same: the controller has kept interest rates in the range of 0-0.1% per annum, refusing to be reviewed and the amount of the asset repurchase program.

At the moment the asset repurchase program of 30 billion yen, it was extended only a month earlier to 10 billion yen. This time the government once again urged the BOJ to extend QE, but the bank has not taken such a decision.
The Bank of Japan explained that the extension is now engaged in lending programs to stimulate economic growth to 3.5 trillion yen from 3 trillion yen previously.
In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, and decreased signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is returned to the drawdown in the neutral zone, indicating a similar way. Key Middle Ichimoku indicator showed touch, expect a signal to sell the currency pair.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level 1.0430 the pair will go to 1.0410 and 1.0390.

Sales of Australian dollar in the middle of the week because of the increased interest in reducing the risk to investors.

Australian dollar earlier in the week regain the publication of weak data on the Chinese economy, which came out below expectations - in particular, we are talking about the levels of exports and the size of the trade deficit. As China's largest trading partner of Australia, the Aussie is actively responding to statistics from the Middle Kingdom.

RBA meeting last week ended with a neutral: the interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.
Previous statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the five thousand
Such data may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m / m vs. capacity by 0.2% m / m (-14.6% y / y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household. However, in the comments AiG notes that the revival of the index revealed only 3 of the nine components of the index.

Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% qoq. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m / m with growth forecast at 0.2%.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, moved to the lateral movement and does not give a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing in the neutral zone and gives a buy signal is returned in the overbought zone.

Forex recommendations: 0.9310 in the breakdown of the USD/CHF will go to 0.9320 and 0.9350. Consolidation likely near the current values.

In the middle of the week franc was preparing for the next meeting of the Swiss National Bank - recently increased the level of the rhetoric of protection in a pair of 1.20 EUR / CHF. However, the regulator is unlikely to change its position until such time as there is no new official was appointed head of the Bank - as long as the most likely candidate on this chair is Mr. Jordan.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8% y/y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m/m This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

Last year, the intervention cost the Swiss National Bank to 17.8 billion francs. Commenting on this information, Mr. Jordan of the SNB said that limiting the growth of the franc had an impact on the market and help stabilize the results of the year.
The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).
Earlier this week it became known that the SNB will tighten control over personal transactions: the new rules which come into force from May 1, suggest quarterly reporting guidelines SNB.
In particular, we are talking about personal transactions.

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q / q (1.3% y / y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y / y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y / y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y / y
According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is oversold, and a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 1.5680 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5670 and 1.5650. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

Currency undermined statistics: unemployment rate in February was 5.0%, while the number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand weakness of the labor sector to prevent recovery of the economy as a whole.

After the collapse of the pound in the area of local minima to the level of 1.5601 currency rebounded in the middle of the week. however, after the release of statistics on employment sellers back to trading.

Previously, the January data on the balance of foreign trade reached above the December level.

According to the GFK NOP and the Bank of England, the annual inflation expectations in February amounted to 3.5% from the November estimate of 4.1%.

However, in the final of last week, the mood of the pound spoiled other factors: the volume of production in the construction sector in January fell by 2.3% y / y, while industrial output in January dipped by 0.4% m/m (-3.8% y/y).
The index of consumer sentiment GFK / NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).
Past the last Thursday meeting of the Bank of England showed preservation of the split opinions in the IFA. Interest rate left unchanged at 0.5% per annum, as well as the amount of QE. In February, QE asset repurchase program increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds.
Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."

By 11:00 Moscow time the euro is worth 1.3029 against the level of the close of trading yesterday at 1.3082.

The sympathies of the market so far on the side of the U.S. dollar - a meeting of the Federal Reserve System was completed before the bright, the rate maintained at 0.25% per annum. In the comments, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the employment market shows recovery, and in general the situation is stable.

Today is expected to moderate stream of statistics, so investors will focus on the external background.

Most likely, the EUS/USD trading environment will not leave the range of 1.2980-1.3090.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD is trading in negative territory along the signal line and do not give a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator falls into the neutral zone and alerts on sales.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 0.9900 the pair will go to 0.9880 and 0.9870.

Last week it was reported that the unemployment rate in Canada in February fell to 7.4% from 7.6% previously, while the number of jobs decreased by 2.8 thousand

In favor of the Canadian dollar continues to play high oil prices.

Previous statistics showed that in the IV quarter of economic growth in Canada slowed down - the real GDP in December, up 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m, but in general, in the final quarter of last Gozha Canadian economy grew by only by 0.4% against 1.0% in the III quarter. It affects a strong external influence and the decline of interest in the world to energy in the final year.
According to the head of the Bank of Canada, Mr. Carney, the current levels of interest rates correspond to the monetary situation. Recall that in mid-January, the Bank of Canada kept interest rates at 1.0% per annum, which in general the market is not surprised. Bank of Canada expressed concern on the eve of the state of the housing sector - according to the regulator, 10% decline in this segment may lead to a reduction in consumption by 1%, despite the fact that the bulk of home equity loans used to finance consumption.
CPI in December dipped by 0.6% m/m (+2.3% y/y) vs. -0.1% m/m Despite the evidence, the data require some explanation. The annual CPI increase was minimal in February 2011, but she declined due to inflation decrease the cost of gasoline and other fuels.

Current account balance in the IV quarter was -CAD $ 10,33 billion in pending -CAD $ 9,6 billion in January, prices of manufactured goods to Canada grew by 0.3% while the forecast growth of 0.1%. At the same time the main driver of growth was oil prices.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is returned to the drawdown in the neutral zone, indicating a similar way. Key Middle Ichimoku indicator showed touch, expect a signal to sell the currency pair.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level 1.0530 the pair will go to 1.0510 and 1.0490.

The pressure on the currency kept on Tuesday - here takes into account the influence of China, and the general mood of financial markets.

Australian dollar earlier in the week regain the publication of weak data on the Chinese economy, which came out below expectations - in particular, we are talking about the levels of exports and the size of the trade deficit. As China's largest trading partner of Australia, the Aussie is actively responding to statistics from the Middle Kingdom.
Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m/m vs. capacity by 0.2% m / m (-14.6% y/y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household. However, in the comments AiG notes that the revival of the index revealed only 3 of the nine components of the index.

Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% q/q. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m/m with growth forecast at 0.2%.
RBA meeting last week ended with a neutral: the interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.

Previous statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the five thousand
Such data may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing again and the buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 82.70 pair will go to 82.80 and 83.00.

At a meeting of the Bank of Japan, all remained the same: the controller has kept interest rates in the range of 0-0.1% per annum, refusing to be reviewed and the amount of the asset repurchase program.

At the moment the asset repurchase program of 30 billion yen, it was extended only a month earlier to 10 billion yen. This time the government once again urged the BOJ to extend QE, but the bank has not taken such a decision. 
The Bank of Japan explained that the extension is now engaged in lending programs to stimulate economic growth to 3.5 trillion yen from 3 trillion yen previously.
The market reacted to news of the fall, the yen strengthened temporarily, but later retreated.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%. 
Previous statistics showed that real GDP revised in the IV quarter was -0.2% q / q (-0.7% y / y). In addition, the current account balance in the IV quarter totaled-Y437, the forecast of 3 billion + Y322, 3 billion, while private consumption in the last quarter grew by 0.4% q / q with growth forecast at 0.3% q / q.

Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory. The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state. 
In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, moved to the lateral movement and does not give a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing in the neutral zone and gives a sell signal is returned in the overbought zone.

Forex recommendations: 0.9210 in the breakdown of the USD/CHF will go to 0.9220 and 0.9250. Consolidation likely near the current values.

In terms of macro the situation in the Swiss economy is stable.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8% y/y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m / m This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.3% y/y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y / y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y / y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y / y
According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.
Last year, the intervention cost the Swiss National Bank to 17.8 billion francs. Commenting on this information, Mr. Jordan of the SNB said that limiting the growth of the franc had an impact on the market and help stabilize the results of the year.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).
Earlier this week it became known that the SNB will tighten control over personal transactions: the new rules which come into force from May 1, suggest quarterly reporting guidelines SNB.
In particular, we are talking about personal transactions.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is oversold, and a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 1.5710 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5680 and 1.5650. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

After the collapse of the pound in the area of local minima to the level of 1.5601 currency rebounded as trade mark looked quite optimistic. In addition, daily data for the January balance of trade in goods reached above the December level.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."

According to the GFK NOP and the Bank of England's annual inflation expectations in February amounted to 3.5% from the November estimate of 4.1%.
However, in the final of last week, the mood of the pound spoiled other factors: the volume of production in the construction sector in January fell by 2.3% y/y, while industrial output in January dipped by 0.4% m/m (-3.8% y/y).
The index of consumer sentiment GFK / NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y/y).
Past the last Thursday meeting of the Bank of England showed preservation of the split opinions in the IFA. Interest rate left unchanged at 0.5% per annum, as well as the amount of QE. In February, QE asset repurchase program increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds.

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is returned to the drawdown in the neutral zone, indicating a similar way. Key Moving Average of Ichimoku indicator showed a touching. We expect a signal to sell the currency pair.

Forex recommendations: if the level 1.0490 keeps the pair will go to 1.0480 and 1.0450.

Australian dollar came under pressure after publication of weakness Chinese economy, which came out below expectations - in particular, we are talking about the levels of exports and the size of the trade deficit. As China's largest trading partner of Australia, the Aussie is actively responding to statistics from the Middle Kingdom.

Previous statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the five thousand

Such data may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m / m vs. capacity by 0.2% m/m (-14.6% y/y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household. 

Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% q/q. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m / m with growth forecast at 0.2%.

RBA meeting this week ended with a neutral: the interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.

In this earlier AUD upset because of the statements of China, and later added a negative GDP statistics for the IV quarter of last year, which was less than half of the forecast.

At the Forex currency market Swiss franc is traded with increasing. The pair has walked within the range 0,9070-0,9218 during five sessions a couple. 

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, rises and gives a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is out of the overbought area, sell signals.

Forex recommendations: out of the market.

Possible scenarios in the forex: the breakdown of 0.9160 the USD/CHF will go to 0.9150 and 0.9120. We estimate consolidation near the current levels.

Earlier this week it became known that SNB will tighten control over personal transactions: new rules, which come into force from May 1, suggest quarterly reporting guidelines SNB.

In particular, we are talking about personal transactions.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8% y/y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.3% y/y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y/y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y/y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y/y

According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.

The intervention cost the Swiss National Bank to 17.8 billion francs in last year. Commenting on this information, Mr. Jordan of the SNB said that limiting the growth of the franc had an impact on the market and help stabilize the results of the year.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).

At the Forex currency market trading of the British Pound Sterling closed Monday’s trading drawdown.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator falls slightly in the neutral zone, approaching to oversold area, and generates the same signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 1.5630 GBP / USD the pair will go to 1.5620 and 1.5590.  Consolidation is most likely around current levels.

Investors lose interest in risky assets - while the market does not appear new trading ideas.

The index of consumer sentiment GFK/NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).

Last Thursday’s Meeting of the Bank of England showed preservation of the split opinions in the IFA. Interest rate left unchanged at 0.5% per annum, as well as the amount of QE. In February, QE asset repurchase program increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds.

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."

According to the GFK NOP and the Bank of England's annual inflation expectations amounted to 3.5% in February from the November’s estimate of 4.1%.

However, in the final of last week, the mood of the pound spoiled other factors: the volume of production in the construction sector in January fell by 2.3% y / y, while industrial output in January dipped by 0.4% m / m (-3.8% y / y).

At the Forex currency market Japanese yen has losses slightly higher, but so far the overall trend is not broken in the beginning of the week.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing again and the buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 82.30 pair will go to 82.50 and 82.70.

Macroeconomic environment is remained stable in Japan.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

Previous statistics showed that real GDP revised in the IV quarter was -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y). In addition, the current account balance in the IV quarter totaled -Y437, the forecast of 3 billion +Y322,3 billion, while private consumption in the last quarter grew by 0.4% q/q with growth forecast at 0.3% q/q.

Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory. The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state.

In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.

Recovery in the Land of the Rising Sun is not easy: the rate of unemployment in January was 4.6%, which coincided with the predictions. The process of creating jobs in Japan fraught with difficulties - in September the rate was 4.2%, reaching 4.5% by December. Employment in January decreased by 350 thousand (-0.6%). However, other indicators show that the financial investments of the Bank of Japan's economy is not in vain: capital spending in the fourth quarter rose 7.6% y/y at the forecast drawdown of 6.4% and -9.8% prior expectations. The data show the maximum gain from the beginning of 2007, and the global perspective of Japanese economic data from more than positive.

At the Forex currency market Course of New Zealand dollar remains under scrutiny sellers at the beginning of the week.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD falls in the positive area and points of sale. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone grows and gives a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: out of the market: in case of breakdown at 0.8170 the pair will go to 0.8160 and 0.8090. Consolidation is possible around current levels.

Level's resistance passes through at 0.8290. Current levels are comfortable for sales. Moving averages of Ichimoku indicator formed a touching, we look for a sell signal.

The index of business activity in the services sector grew in January, BNZ to 53.6 points against prior expectations of 50.9 points. The components of the report showed that an increase was recorded in four of the five components of the index, as the main catalyst for the growth of new companies have orders. Employment in the sector rose to 54.2 points, which is a maximum in November 2007.

REINZ house prices in January fell by 1.4% m/m (25.2% y/y) versus prior expectations drawdown of 0.1% m/m The rate of unemployment in the IV quarter of 2011 decreased to 6.3% against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. These are positive, which means that the sector of employment as one of the main supports of the economy will be able to guarantee stability even under pessimistic external influence.

In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected. The comments RBNZ noted that currently sees no reason to revise the level of rates.

Last week’s statistics showed that in New Zealand Activity in the manufacturing sector in the IV quarter grew by 1.3% against 1.4% fall previously. The data support the currency.

According to data published previously in New Zealand's export prices in the IV quarter rose 1.7% q/q against the Level III quarter -4.0%. Import prices for this reporting period increased by 3.2% q/q decrease against the previous 3.4%.

The index of service sector activity fell in December to 50.6 points (-5.6 points). The trade balance in December was +NZ$338 million against the value of the November -NZ$307 million, but a positive indicator that the price has already been laid. In New Zealand's GDP in the III quarter grew by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) vs. 0.6% q/q. GDP in the II quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.5% y/y) versus the first quarter of levels of 0.9% q / q (+1.6% y/y). 

By 8:40 Moscow time euro is worth 1.3177 against the level of the close of trading yesterday at 1.3154.

Euro / dollar is rising on the information that the EU finance ministers agreed in principle the process of lending to Greece, and today is going to come back for the final discussion of this issue.

In the afternoon session is expected the U.S. Federal Reserve, which will decide on interest rates and announced some of the expectations about the economic outlook.

For more nervous making the issue with Spain, which has already pointed out the need for a rapid reduction in the levels of budget deficits.

Most likely, the EUR/USD trading on Tuesday will not leave the range of 1.3090-1.3240.

In the course of trading session on the MICEX currency section, Russian Rouble decreased against the U.S. dollar. Russian currency has had moderate losses due to divergent attitudes of players in global capital markets.

Thus, pair dollar / ruble has closed yesterday’s bidding around  level of 29.64 (+ 12 kopeks),  euro / ruble finished at the level of  38.9 Roubles (+8 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value was 33.81 Roubles (+8 kopeks).

Thus, the unstable situation on the world platforms and drawdown of oil prices affect the position of the ruble.

Presumably, pair USD/RUR will be in the channel 29.55-29.75 at the trading session of Tuesday.

At the Forex currency market Swiss franc closed the previous day lower, reflecting the mood of investors in global capital markets.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, rises and gives a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is out of the overbought area, sell signals.

Forex recommendations: out of the market.

Possible scenarios in the forex: the breakdown of 0.9190 the USD/CHF will go to 0.9180 and 0.9150. We estimate consolidation near the current levels.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8% y/y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.3% y/y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y/y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y/y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y/y

According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.

The intervention cost the Swiss National Bank to 17.8 billion francs in last year. Commenting on this information, Mr. Jordan of the SNB said that limiting the growth of the franc had an impact on the market and help stabilize the results of the year.

Earlier, the acting head of the SNB Jordan drew attention that the regulator intends to firmly defend the mark of 1.20 in the euro / franc, and is ready to take additional measures, if required by the economic situation. He also confirmed that this year the Swiss economy will slow, although there is no risk of inflation. Frank, in his words, is still too strong and in need of cost reduction.

Swiss National Bank, meanwhile, still maintains neutrality in the conduct of the franc.

At the Forex currency market the Japanese yen was closed by sales on Friday's trading.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing again and the buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 82.40 pair will go to 82.50 and 82.70.

Japan's macroeconomic was background quiet at Monday morning.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

Recovery in the Land of the Rising Sun is not easy: the rate of unemployment in January was 4.6%, which coincided with the predictions. The process of creating jobs in Japan fraught with difficulties - in September the rate was 4.2%, reaching 4.5% by December. Employment in January decreased by 350 thousand (-0.6%). However, other indicators show that the financial investments of the Bank of Japan's economy is not in vain: capital spending in the fourth quarter rose 7.6% y/y at the forecast drawdown of 6.4% and -9.8% prior expectations. The data show the maximum gain from the beginning of 2007, and the global perspective of Japanese economic data from more than positive.

Previous statistics showed that real GDP revised in the IV quarter was -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y). In addition, the current account balance in the IV quarter totaled -Y437, the forecast of 3 billion +Y322,3 billion, while private consumption in the last quarter grew by 0.4% q/q with growth forecast at 0.3% q/q.

Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory. The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state.

In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.

With the start of the trading session on the MICEX currency section of the Russian Rouble is decreasing against the U.S. dollar. Russian currency regains full range of news in favor of the domestic currency during the holidays’ period. High oil prices support national currency.

Thus, pair dollar / ruble has lost about 13 cents, going to the level of 29.54,  euro / ruble fell to the level of  38.9 Roubles (- 22 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value was 33.72 Roubles.

Thus, a positive effect on ruble's quotes was provided by strong oil prices and a overall favorable  mood of world capital market.

Presumably, pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel 29,50-29,65 at the trading session.

The EUR/USD on Monday’s morning in the Forex market trading on the downside.

By 9.50 Moscow time the euro is worth 1.3080 against the level of the close of Friday’s trading at 1.3114.

The main reason of new sales in the morning was published statistics: trade deficit of the country was at the peak of 2000 in February, but export levels rose last month up to 18.4%, though economists expected more substantial building.

In addition, this week, investors will wait for the final decision of the EU by Greece, which also adds some nervousness in the market.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD trading will not leave the range of 1.3050-1.3150 today.

At the Forex currency market trading of the British Pound Sterling was ended by massive sales on Friday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator falls slightly in the neutral zone, approaching to oversold area, and generates the same signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 1.5670 GBP / USD the pair will go to 1.5660 and 1.5630.  Most likely will be consolidation at current levels.

According to the GFK NOP and the Bank of England's annual inflation expectations amounted to 3.5% in February from the November’s estimate of 4.1%.

However, in the final of last week, the mood of the pound spoiled other factors: the volume of production in the construction sector in January fell by 2.3% y / y, while industrial output in January dipped by 0.4% m / m (-3.8% g / g).

The index of consumer sentiment GFK/NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).

Elapsed before the meeting of the Bank of England showed preservation of the split opinions in the IFA. Interest rate left unchanged at 0.5% per annum, as well as the amount of QE. In February, QE asset repurchase program increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds.

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD falls in the positive area and points of sale. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone grows and gives a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: out of the market.

Possible scenarios in the forex: the breakdown of the level 0.8210 the pair will go to 0.8140 and 0.8090. Possible consolidation with the current values.

Level's resistance passes through at 0.8290. Current levels are comfortable for sales. Moving averages of Ichimoku indicator formed a touching, look for a sell signal.

Last week’s statistics showed that in New Zealand Activity in the manufacturing sector in the IV quarter grew by 1.3% against 1.4% fall previously. The data support the currency.

According to data published previously in New Zealand's export prices in the IV quarter rose 1.7% q/q against the Level III quarter -4.0%. Import prices for this reporting period increased by 3.2% q/q decrease against the previous 3.4%.

The index of business activity in the services sector grew in January, BNZ to 53.6 points against prior expectations of 50.9 points. The components of the report showed that an increase was recorded in four of the five components of the index, as the main catalyst for the growth of new companies have orders. Employment in the sector rose to 54.2 points, which is a maximum in November 2007.

REINZ house prices in January fell by 1.4% m/m (25.2% y/y) versus prior expectations drawdown of 0.1% m/m The rate of unemployment in the IV quarter of 2011 decreased to 6.3% against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. These are positive, which means that the sector of employment as one of the main supports of the economy will be able to guarantee stability even under pessimistic external influence.

In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected. The comments RBNZ noted that currently sees no reason to revise the level of rates.

The index of service sector activity fell in December to 50.6 points (-5.6 points). The trade balance in December was +NZ$338 million against the value of the November -NZ$307 million, but a positive indicator that the price has already been laid. In New Zealand's GDP in the III quarter grew by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) vs. 0.6% q/q. GDP in the II quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.5% y/y) versus the first quarter of levels of 0.9% q / q (+1.6% y/y). Thus, in the New Zealand economy, there was virtually stagnant: GDP growth has almost stopped, and later revived. Rather, the data of IV quarter will be weaker.

At the Forex currency market Australian dollar trading with a moderate reduction on Monday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic oscillator starts to grow in the neutral zone, signaling purchases. Key Moving Average of Ichimoku indicator showed a touching. We expect a signal to sell the currency pair.

Forex recommendations: if the level 1.0680 keeps the pair will go to 1.0540 and 1.0500.

RBA meeting this week ended with a neutral: the interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.

In this earlier AUD upset because of the statements of China, and later added a negative GDP statistics for the IV quarter of last year, which was less than half of the forecast.

Previous statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the five thousand

Such data may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m / m vs. capacity by 0.2% m/m (-14.6% y/y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household.

However, in the comments AiG notes that the revival of the index revealed only 3 of the nine components of the index. Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% q/q. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m / m with growth forecast at 0.2%.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD falls in the positive area and points of sale. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone grows and gives a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: out of the market.

Possible scenarios in the forex: the breakdown of the level 0.8240 the pair will go to 0.8250 and 0.8260. Possible consolidation with the current values.

Previous statistics showed that in New Zealand Activity in the manufacturing sector in the IV quarter grew by 1.3% against 1.4% fall previously. The data support the currency.

In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected. The comments RBNZ noted that currently sees no reason to revise the level of rates.

The index of service sector activity fell in December to 50.6 points (-5.6 points). The trade balance in December was +NZ$338 million against the value of the November -NZ$307 million, but a positive indicator that the price has already been laid. In New Zealand's GDP in the III quarter grew by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) vs. 0.6% q/q. GDP in the II quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.5% y/y) versus the first quarter of levels of 0.9% q / q (+1.6% y/y). Thus, in the New Zealand economy, there was virtually stagnant: GDP growth has almost stopped, and later revived. Rather, the data of IV quarter will be weaker.

REINZ house prices in January fell by 1.4% m/m (25.2% y/y) versus prior expectations drawdown of 0.1% m/m The rate of unemployment in the IV quarter of 2011 decreased to 6.3% against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. These are positive, which means that the sector of employment as one of the main supports of the economy will be able to guarantee stability even under pessimistic external influence.
According to data published previously in New Zealand's export prices in the IV quarter rose 1.7% q/q against the Level III quarter -4.0%. Import prices for this reporting period increased by 3.2% q/q decrease against the previous 3.4%.

The index of business activity in the services sector grew in January, BNZ to 53.6 points against prior expectations of 50.9 points. The components of the report showed that an increase was recorded in four of the five components of the index, as the main catalyst for the growth of new companies have orders. Employment in the sector rose to 54.2 points, which is a maximum in November 2007.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic oscillator starts to grow in the neutral zone, signaling purchases.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level 1.0630 the pair will go to 1.0640 and 1.0650.

Previous statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the five thousand

Such data may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m / m vs. capacity by 0.2% m/m (-14.6% y/y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household. However, in the comments AiG notes that the revival of the index revealed only 3 of the nine components of the index.

Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% q/q. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m / m with growth forecast at 0.2%.

RBA meeting this week ended with a neutral: the interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.
In this earlier AUD upset because of the statements of China, and later added a negative GDP statistics for the IV quarter of last year, which was less than half of the forecast.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing again and the buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 81.70 pair will go to 81.80 and 82.00.

Yesterday's statistics showed that real GDP revised in the IV quarter was -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y). In addition, the current account balance in the IV quarter totaled -Y437, the forecast of 3 billion +Y322,3 billion, while private consumption in the last quarter grew by 0.4% q/q with growth forecast at 0.3% q/q.

Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory. The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state.
In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

Recovery in the Land of the Rising Sun is not easy: the rate of unemployment in January was 4.6%, which coincided with the predictions. The process of creating jobs in Japan fraught with difficulties - in September the rate was 4.2%, reaching 4.5% by December. Employment in January decreased by 350 thousand (-0.6%). However, other indicators show that the financial investments of the Bank of Japan's economy is not in vain: capital spending in the fourth quarter rose 7.6% y/y at the forecast drawdown of 6.4% and -9.8% prior expectations. The data show the maximum gain from the beginning of 2007, and the global perspective of Japanese economic data from more than positive.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, rises and gives a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is out of the overbought area, sell signals.

Forex recommendations: out of the market.

Possible scenarios in the forex: the breakdown of 0.9110 the USD/CHF will go to 0.9120 and 0.9130. Consolidation likely near the current values.

The intervention cost the Swiss National Bank to 17.8 billion francs in last year. Commenting on this information, Mr. Jordan of the SNB said that limiting the growth of the franc had an impact on the market and help stabilize the results of the year.

Earlier, the acting head of the SNB Jordan drew attention that the regulator intends to firmly defend the mark of 1.20 in the euro / franc, and is ready to take additional measures, if required by the economic situation. He also confirmed that this year the Swiss economy will slow, although there is no risk of inflation. Frank, in his words, is still too strong and in need of cost reduction.

Swiss National Bank, meanwhile, still maintains neutrality in the conduct of the franc.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8% y/y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).
GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.3% y/y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y/y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y/y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y/y

According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is growing in the neutral zone and the buy signal.

Forex recommendations: out of the market.

Possible scenarios for the development of trading on the forex: the breakdown of 1.5800 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5820 and 1.5830. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

Elapsed before the meeting of the Bank of England showed preservation of the split opinions in the IFA. Interest rate left unchanged at 0.5% per annum, as well as the amount of QE. In February, QE asset repurchase program increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds.

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.
Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."

The index of consumer sentiment GFK/NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).

By 10.15 Moscow time the euro is worth 1.3226 against the level of the close of trading yesterday at 1.3266.

The European Central Bank left before the interest rate unchanged at 1% per annum, in the comments pointed out that in the euro area show signs of stabilization.

According to the news, on the eve of expiration for Greece managed to win more than 85% willing to exchange bond investors.

The IMF also noted before that the final decision on allocation of the second package of financial aid to Greece to discuss on March 15.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD trading will not leave the range of 1.3170-1.3250 on Friday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD falls in the positive area and points of sale. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone grows and gives a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level 0.8220 the pair will go to 0.8230 and 0.8250.

Today's statistics showed that in New Zealand Activity in the manufacturing sector in the IV quarter grew by 1.3% against 1.4% fall previously. The data support the currency.

In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected. The comments RBNZ noted that currently sees no reason to revise the level of rates.

According to previous statistical data, in New Zealand's export prices in the IV quarter rose 1.7% q/q against the Level III quarter -4.0%. Import prices for this reporting period increased by 3.2% q/q decrease against the previous 3.4%.

The index of service sector activity fell in December to 50.6 points (-5.6 points). The trade balance in December was +NZ$338 million against the value of the November -NZ$307 million, but a positive indicator that the price has already been laid. In New Zealand's GDP in the III quarter grew by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) vs. 0.6% q/q. GDP in the II quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.5% y/y) versus the first quarter of levels of 0.9% q / q (+1.6% y/y). Thus, in the New Zealand economy, there was virtually stagnant: GDP growth has almost stopped, and later revived. Rather, the data of IV quarter will be weaker.
REINZ house prices in January fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) versus prior expectations drawdown of 0.1% m/m The rate of unemployment in the IV quarter of 2011 decreased to 6.3% against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. These are positive, which means that the sector of employment as one of the main supports of the economy will be able to guarantee stability even under pessimistic external influence.

The index of business activity in the services sector grew in January, BNZ to 53.6 points against prior expectations of 50.9 points. The components of the report showed that an increase was recorded in four of the five components of the index, as the main catalyst for the growth of new companies have orders. Employment in the sector rose to 54.2 points, which is a maximum in November 2007.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic oscillator starts to grow in the neutral zone, signaling purchases.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level 1.0610 the pair will go to 1.0620 and 1.0650.

Morning statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the 5 thousand.

Such statistics may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

The meeting ended with a neutral before the RBA: Interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.

At the same time before the AUD was upset by the statements of China, today added a negative GDP statistics for the IV quarter of last year, which was less than half of the forecast.
Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m/m vs. capacity by 0.2% m/m (-14.6% y/y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household. However, in the comments AiG notes that the revival of the index revealed only 3 of the nine components of the index.

Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% q/q. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m/m with growth forecast at 0.2%.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is out of the overbought and selling signals.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 81.40 pair will go to 81.50 and 81.60.

Today came the following data on the Japanese economy:

- Real GDP in the revised IV quarter amounted to 0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y);

- Current account balance in the IV quarter totaled -Y437,3 billion at the forecast +Y322,3 billion;

- Personal consumption in the IV quarter grew by 0.4% q/q with growth forecast at 0.3% q/q.

Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory. The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state.
In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.

Previous statistics showed that the recovery in the Land of the Rising Sun is not easy: the unemployment rate in January was 4.6%, which coincided with the predictions. The process of creating jobs in Japan fraught with difficulties - in September the rate was 4.2%, reaching 4.5% by December. Employment in January decreased by 350 thousand (-0.6%). However, other indicators show that the financial investments of the Bank of Japan's economy is not in vain: capital spending in the fourth quarter rose 7.6% y/y at the forecast drawdown of 6.4% and -9.8% prior expectations. The data show the maximum gain from the beginning of 2007, and the global perspective of Japanese economic data from more than positive.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, rises and gives a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is entered in the overbought region, keeping in place a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: 0.9160 in the breakdown of the USD/CHF will go to 0.9170 and 0.9190. Consolidation likely near the current values.

The rate of the franc back to growth once the external background is stabilized.

According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.
GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q / q (1.3% y / y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y / y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y / y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y / y

According to the SNB, Mr. Jordan, the situation in Europe is causing serious concern, although the difficulties associated with the debt crisis can be overcome. He noted that first of all need to reduce budget costs - further anti-crisis measures will work themselves. Earlier, the acting head of the SNB Jordan drew attention that the regulator intends to firmly defend the mark of 1.20 in the euro / franc, and is ready to take additional measures, if required by the economic situation. He also confirmed that this year the Swiss economy will slow, although there is no risk of inflation. Frank, in his words, is still too strong and in need of cost reduction.
Swiss National Bank, meanwhile, still maintains neutrality in the conduct of the franc.
Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m / m (-0.8% y / y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m / m This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in positive territory, moving sideways and does not give a clear signal. Stochastic oscillator is reduced in the neutral zone and indicates sales.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 1.5760 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5750 and 1.5730. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

Today, the British pound is waiting for the outcome of the meeting and the Bank of England decision on interest rates.

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."

Recall that a regular meeting of February the Bank of England asset-repurchase program QE increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds. As commented on the decision by Mr. Osborne, the increase in QE will help to achieve the inflation target (2% official target, and it has not changed about two years). According to him, the current monetary policy remains the primary tool for response to economic changes, and analysis of the Bank of England shows the effectiveness of QE.

The index of consumer sentiment GFK / NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).

By 9.55 Moscow time the euro is worth 1.3176 against the close of trading yesterday at 1.3147.

Investors again start to buy the pair, as the hope for a favorable resolution of the issue with the Greek debt. By the end of the day today to Athens to collect at least 67% of investors who are willing to voluntarily participate in the PSI.

This day will be filled as statistics and other important events: in the afternoon a meeting of the ECB and the Bank of England, the afternoon will be published statistics on the labor market in the U.S.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD trading will not leave the range of 1.3110-1.3230 on Thursday.

Thus, the bidding for the USD opened with a value of 29.62 Roubles, EUR started from the level of 38.9 Roubles (+9 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value was 33.83 Roubles (+4 kopeks).

Thus, a rollback of the ruble to the basket due to adverse external background and the uncertainty due to Greece.

Presumably, pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel 29,58-29,75 at the trading session.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is out of the overbought and selling signals.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.70 pair will go to 80.60 and 80.50.

The situation in the yen remains the same, with the only difference being that now in favor of the "Japanese" is the desire of investors to withdraw from the market risk associated with Greece.

Statistics showed Friday that the recovery in the Land of the Rising Sun is not easy: the rate of unemployment in January was 4.6%, which coincided with the predictions. The process of creating jobs in Japan fraught with difficulties - in September the rate was 4.2%, reaching 4.5% by December. Employment in January decreased by 350 thousand (-0.6%). However, other indicators show that the financial investments of the Bank of Japan's economy is not in vain: capital spending in the fourth quarter rose 7.6% y / y at the forecast drawdown of 6.4% and -9.8% prior expectations. The data show the maximum gain from the beginning of 2007, and the global perspective of Japanese economic data from more than positive.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

The representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Kamedzaki, in case of falling confidence in Japanese government bonds will no longer serve as a safe asset. The politician believes that the regulator should take preventive steps to avoid such a scenario.
In general, the comments the previous week was the Bank of Japan have launched sales of "Japanese." During the last meeting of the Bank of Japan kept interest rates at 0.1% per annum, but an unexpected move for the markets: increased volume of asset repurchase program from the market to 65 trillion yen from the previous level of 55 trillion yen. The decision was unanimous, as the other - a program of purchase of long-term bonds was increased from Y9 trillion to Y19 trillion. In addition, the Central Bank surprised the market again - he said that he considers it expedient to establish target for inflation on the value of 1%, as economic forecasts look extremely hazy.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, rises and gives a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is entered in the overbought region, keeping in place a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: 0.9180 in the breakdown of the USD/CHF will go to 0.9200 and 0.9220. Consolidation is near of current values.

The market is in limbo because of the situation with Greece and investors are clearly moving away from risk.

According to data released today in the Swiss unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.

Swiss National Bank, meanwhile, still maintains neutrality in the conduct of the franc.

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q / q (1.3% y / y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y / y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y / y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y / y

According to the SNB, Mr. Jordan, the situation in Europe is causing serious concern, although the difficulties associated with the debt crisis can be overcome. He noted that first of all need to reduce budget costs - further anti-crisis measures will work themselves. Earlier, the acting head of the SNB Jordan drew attention that the regulator intends to firmly defend the mark of 1.20 in the euro / franc, and is ready to take additional measures, if required by the economic situation. He also confirmed that this year the Swiss economy will slow, although there is no risk of inflation. Frank, in his words, is still too strong and in need of cost reduction.
Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m / m (-0.8% y / y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m / m This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009. Dear Franc seriously harm the economy: in the beginning, the value of imports of consumer goods fell by 1.8% m / m (-3.2% y / y), but the Swiss domestic goods production rose 0.1% m / m in the price. Thus, the threat of deflation is becoming very apparent to Switzerland. Expectations ZEW index in February increased to -21.2 points against the January value of -50.1 points.
The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m). These are not too positive, especially as export levels have gone back to the minus.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in positive territory, moving sideways and does not give a clear signal. Stochastic oscillator is reduced in the neutral zone and indicates sales.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 1.5720 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5700 and 1.5680. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

The British pound tightly correlated with the euro/dollar, reflecting investors' concerns, pending the issue of persistent tension with Greece.
The index of consumer sentiment GFK / NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."
Recall that a regular meeting of February the Bank of England asset-repurchase program QE increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds. As commented on the decision by Mr. Osborne, the increase in QE will help to achieve the inflation target (2% official target, and it has not changed about two years). According to him, the current monetary policy remains the primary tool for response to economic changes, and analysis of the Bank of England shows the effectiveness of QE.

By 08.10 Moscow time the euro is at 1.3134 against the close of trading yesterday at 1.3114.

Wall Street on Tuesday, survived, perhaps, the worst session since the beginning of the year, investors concerned about the continued stress on the issue with Greece, and even the expectation of a strong statistical Friday failed to cheer up the players.

By Wednesday morning the issue with the participation of private capital in the PSI program in Greece is still open, although the Greek side declares the consent of 75-80% of the investors.

Today, it is possible, the voltage at the sites will continue.

Most likely, the EUR/USD trading will not leave the range of 1.3070-1.3190.

At the Forex currency market Canadian dollar was closed by sales on Monday, while oil prices were being adjusted.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD is in the negative area and is going up slightly, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator pushes away from oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9945 the pair will go to 0.9960 and 0.9970.

The situation is stable in Canada in terms of macroeconomics.

Friday’s statistics showed that, Canada's economic growth slowed down in the IV quarter of 2011 - the real GDP in December up to 0.4% m / m vs. 0.3% m / m, but in general, Canadian economy grew by 0.4% only in the last quarter of previous year against 1.0% in the III quarter. Here affects a strong external influence and the decline of interest to energy in the world  last year.

According to the data released earlier, real GDP in Canada fell by0.1% m/m in November (+2.0% y/y) against expectations of 0.2% m/m. New orders in the manufacturing sector fell by 2.8% in December against prior expectations of +3.6%. Number of outstanding orders in this sector fell by 1.6% (versus+1.2% previously); Sales in this sector were low: growth amounted 0.6% in December against expected +1.9%. Leading indicator index rose by 0.8% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.6% m/m.

Current account balance in Canada amounted to -CAD$10.33billion in Q4 against expectations of -CAD$9.6 billion.

Prices for industrial goods in Canada rose by 0.3% in January against the forecast of growth of 0.1%. The CAD has ignored this statistics. Oil prices became the main driver for growth.

The head of the Bank of Canada Mr. Carney believes that current levels of the rates comply with monetary situation. Recall that in the middle of the week, the Bank of Canada kept interest rate at the level of 1.0% per annum, which was not a surprise for the market. The Bank of Canada expressed concern about the state of the housing sector; according to the regulator 10%-decline in the sector can lead to reduction in consumption by 1% although the bulk of credits on property were used to finance consumption.

CPI fell by 0.6% m/m (+2.3% y/y) in December against the forecast of -0.1% m/m. Despite this obvious fact, the data requires some clarification. Annual growth of CPI has been minimal since February 2011, and inflation reduced due to decline in prices for gasoline and other fuel. 

At the Forex currency market Australian dollar had been continued to sell in anticipation of RBA meeting on Monday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the positive area, it goes down and is shaping a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator reverses in the neutral zone, giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0660 the pair will go to 1.0650 and 1.0610.

The market waits for the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia and comments regarding the economic outlook as well as by level of interest rate. Index of industrial activity AiG in Australia fell by 51.3 points in February against preliminary expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, number of permits to construct rose by 0.9% m/m in January against the forecast of growth of 0.2%m/m (-14.6% y/y).

Aggregate activity index Aig in the service sector increased to 51.9 points in January (+2.9 points) against growth of 1.3 points a month earlier. The index has been growing for the third month in a row, while major growth in activity is associated with households. Nevertheless, AiG noted in the comments, that revival in the index is evident only in three out of nine components.

Inflation in the country showed zero growth in Q4 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales in January fell by 0.1% m/m against forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that activity index in the manufacturing sector rose by 1.4% in January, up to 51.6points, as per AI GROUP estimates.

According to statistics released earlier, index of wages rise has increased by 1.0% on quarterly basis in Q4against the previous growth of 0.7%. Growth amounted to 3.6% on annual basis. Statistics released earlier showed that lending in the housing sector of Australia rose by 2.4% in December against the forecast of growth of 1.8%.

Thus, the bidding for the USD opened with a mark of 29.39 Rouble, which is 4 kopeks. higher than yesterday's close; EUR started from the level of 38.79 Rouble (-2 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value was 33.61 Rouble.

Minor changes in currency pairs are associated with deterioration of the external background and attitudes of the players.

Presumably, pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel 29,30-29,45 at the trading session on Tuesday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is going up in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY and maintains a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.50 pair will go to 81.60 and 81.80.

The beginning of the week did not bring the new statistics in Japan.

Friday's statistics released that economic recovery process in the country of the Rising Sun is complicated: unemployment rate amounted to 4,6% in January which agreed with the forecast. Job creation process in Japan is complex as well: unemployment rate amounted to 4.2% in September and reached 4.5% in December. Employment fell by 350 thousand in January (-0.6%).

However, other indicators show that the financial investments of the Bank of Japan's economy is not in vain: capital spending in the fourth quarter rose 7.6% y / y at the forecast drawdown of 6.4% and -9.8% prior expectations. The data show the maximum gain from the beginning of 2007, and the global perspective of Japanese economic data from more than positive.

The head of the Bank of Japan Mr.Shirakawa said today that the regulator is going to continue monetary easing policy until inflations reaches targeted 1%.

The representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Kamedzaki, in case of falling confidence in Japanese government bonds will no longer serve as a safe asset. The politician believes that the regulator should take preventive steps to avoid such a scenario.
In general, the comments the previous week was the Bank of Japan have launched sales of "Japanese." At the meeting last week, Bank of Japan kept interest rates at 0.1% per annum, but an unexpected move for the markets: increased volume of asset repurchase program from the market to 65 trillion yen from the previous level of 55 trillion yen. The decision was unanimous, as the other - a program of purchase of long-term bonds was increased from Y9 trillion to Y19 trillion. In addition, the Central Bank surprised the market again - he said that he considers it expedient to establish target for inflation on the value of 1%, as economic forecasts look extremely hazy. It is the opinion of the Bank's target of CPI and caused the market to revise their trading strategies in the yen.

Drastic steps securities were the continuation of the reaction at the statistics - in Japan for the fourth quarter 2011 GDP fell by 2.3% y / y, as the system recovery after a natural disaster prevented the European crisis and global economic deceleration.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF and is moving along the signal line again, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is entered in the overbought region, keeping in place a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9120 the USD/CHF will go to 0.9130 and 0.9150. Consolidation is near of current values.

The behavior of the franc on Monday, is easily explained: in the afternoon, the market relied on the strong American statistics, which gave a growing momentum.

Swiss National Bank, meanwhile, still maintains neutrality in the conduct of the franc.

Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y / y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y / y
GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q / q (1.3% y / y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y / y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points.

According to the SNB, Mr. Jordan, the situation in Europe is causing serious concern, although the difficulties associated with the debt crisis can be overcome. He noted that first of all need to reduce budget costs - further anti-crisis measures will work themselves. Earlier, the acting head of the SNB Jordan drew attention that the regulator intends to firmly defend the mark of 1.20 in the euro / franc, and is ready to take additional measures, if required by the economic situation. He also confirmed that this year the Swiss economy will slow, although there is no risk of inflation. Frank, in his words, is still too strong and in need of cost reduction.
The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m). These are not too positive, especially as export levels have gone back to the minus.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m / m (-0.8% y / y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m / m This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009. Dear Franc seriously harm the economy: in the beginning, the value of imports of consumer goods fell by 1.8% m / m (-3.2% y / y), but the Swiss domestic goods production rose 0.1% m / m in the price. Thus, the threat of deflation is becoming very apparent to Switzerland. Expectations ZEW index in February increased to -21.2 points against the January value of -50.1 points.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in positive territory, moving sideways and does not give a clear signal. Stochastic oscillator is reduced in the neutral zone and indicates sales.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 1.5860 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5850 and 1.5830. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

Data from the British service in February were unimpressive: the index of PMI / CIPS dipped to 53.8 points versus 56.0 points of the January values and expectations of 55 points. In this part of the report were quite good: in the field of business expectations of an upturn.
Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."
The index of consumer sentiment GFK / NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).

Recall that a regular meeting of February the Bank of England asset-repurchase program QE increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds. As commented on the decision by Mr. Osborne, the increase in QE will help to achieve the inflation target (2% official target, and it has not changed about two years). According to him, the current monetary policy remains the primary tool for response to economic changes, and analysis of the Bank of England shows the effectiveness of QE.

By 8.30 Moscow time the euro is at 1.3194 against the level of the close of trading yesterday at 1.3220.

The market is still no new drivers for traffic, especially since the risks of Greece remain strong, and the peripheral countries in the eurozone only add bad news.

In addition, investors are waiting for the publication of data on Eurozone GDP for the fourth quarter of 2011 - it is expected that the rate fell to 0.3%. If the forecast is justified, it would mean an immersion of the region into recession.

Thus, while the mood of the players play against the euro.

Most likely, the EUR/USD trading on Tuesday will not leave the range of 1.3140-1.3260.

The trading session for the USD started at the level of 29.26 Roubles, which is 2 kopeks lower than Friday's close; EUR started at the level of 38.52 Roubles (-14 kopeks).

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.43 Roubles.

Therefore, the Roubles still wins back domestic news, which in general have already been addressed by the market.

Presumably, pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29,20-29,40 Roubles for USD at the trading session on Monday.

By 8.15 Moscow time the euro is at 1.3192 against the closing of trading on Friday at 1.3203.

The main couple is still under pressure, as the market continues to assess the prospects for solutions to Greece and saw no new drivers for your purchase.

During the day the players' attention will be focused on European statistics - in particular, the index of business activity in the service sector in February. In the afternoon, will be published on the U.S. economy.

This week, as expected, the final decision on allocation of the second package of financial aid to Greece - this factor into account in the same market prices.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3150-1.3250 at the trading session on Monday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD is in the negative area and is going up slightly, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator pushes away from oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9890 the pair will go to 0.9910 and 0.9930.

Friday statistics showed that, Canada's economic growth slowed down in the IV quarter of 2011 - the real GDP in December up to 0.4% m / m vs. 0.3% m / m, but in general, Canadian economy grew by 0.4% only in the last quarter of previous year against 1.0% in the III quarter.
Here affects a strong external influence and the decline of interest to energy in the world last year.
Current account balance in Canada amounted to -CAD$10.33billion in Q4 against expectations of -CAD$9.6 billion.
Prices for industrial goods in Canada rose by 0.3% in January against the forecast of growth of 0.1%. The CAD has ignored this statistics. Oil prices became the main driver for growth.

According to the data released earlier, real GDP in Canada fell by0.1% m/m in November (+2.0% y/y) against expectations of 0.2% m/m. New orders in the manufacturing sector fell by 2.8% in December against prior expectations of +3.6%. Number of outstanding orders in this sector fell by 1.6% (versus +1.2% previously); Sales in this sector were low: growth amounted 0.6% in December against expected +1.9%. Leading indicator index rose by 0.8% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.6% m/m.

The head of the Bank of Canada Mr. Carney believes that current levels of the rates comply with monetary situation. Recall that in the middle of the week, the Bank of Canada kept interest rate at the level of 1.0% per annum, which was not a surprise for the market. The Bank of Canada expressed concern about the state of the housing sector; according to the regulator 10%-decline in the sector can lead to reduction in consumption by 1% although the bulk of credits on property were used to finance consumption.
CPI fell by 0.6% m/m (+2.3% y/y) in December against the forecast of -0.1% m/m. Despite this obvious fact, the data requires some clarification. Annual growth of CPI has been minimal since February 2011, and inflation reduced due to decline in prices for gasoline and other fuel. Therefore, basing on the current inflationary situation, the Bank of Canada can keep inflation at the existing level for some more time with no damage for its monetary policy.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF and is moving along the signal line again, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator grows in the neutral zone, indicating the relevance of buy and gets ready to enter into the overbought zone.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9150 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9160 and 0.9190. Consolidation is near of current values.

Swiss National Bank still maintains neutrality regarding the conduct of the franc.

According to the data released earlier, GDP in Switzerland rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is good and proves that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Manufacturing sector in Switzerland is still weak; nevertheless it began to demonstrate tendency to recovery- index of manufacturing activity SVME increased to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points.

According to the previous data, inflation in Switzerland fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8% y/y) in January against expectations of decline of 0.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive drop in the index and at the same time it is maximal fall since October 2009. Expensive Yen seriously has a serious impact on economic progress: at the beginning of the year import of consumer goods fell by 1.8% m/m (-3.2% y/y), however the goods of Swiss production rose in price by 0.1% m/m. Therefore, inflation threat is becoming more tangible in Switzerland. Index of economic expectations ZEW rose to -21.2 points in February against the level of -50.1 points in January.
According to representative of SNB Mr. Jordan, situation in Europe has arisen concern at the moment; nevertheless it is feasible to overcome difficulties associated with debt crisis. He also noted that budget costs shall be reduced first of all, after that anti-crisis measures will be implemented automatically. Earlier monetary politician Jordan acting as a head of SNB said that the regulator is firmly determined to maintain the level of 1.20 in the pair Euro/Franc. He is also prepared to adopt additional measures if economic situation requires. He also confirmed that economic growth rate slowed down this year in Switzerland, although there is no risk of the rise in inflation. He believes that Franc is still too strong and reduction in its price is urgently required.
Trade balance in Switzerland amounted to -1.553 billion francs in January against the forecast of -2.50 billion francs. The report showed that exports decreased by3.4% last month against preliminary estimate of growth of 6.1%; imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast: +7.6% m/m).The data is not too positive, since levels of exports are in the red again.