2011-12-19 10:05:00
At the Forex currency on Friday the British Pound Sterling rate is traded downward on Monday, amid gloomy external background.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD is traded in the negative area and is moving along the signal line, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing in the neutral zone and is giving a weak byy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5480, target for sales will be the levels of 1.5470 and 1.5460. If specified level is not broken down, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

It became known today that house price index Rightmove in the UK fell by 2.7% m/m (+1.5% y/y) in December against preliminary level of -3.1% m/m (+1.2% y/y). Looking at the past performance of the index we can say that in the first 6 months of the year, house prices went up, however in the next six months volatility in the sector increased and the rise in October was smoothed over by the decline in November.

In 2011 British housing sector distinguished by both record low rates and tougher mortgage conditions.

The Bank of England announced earlier that average annual inflationary expectations reduced to 4.1% in November against 4.2% in August. At the same time, two-year inflationary expectations were at the level of 3.4% (3.5% previously)

It became known earlier that CPI in the UK increased by 0.2% m/m (+4.8% y/y) in November, as expected. British inflation slows down its pace, however the index is still too far from the target level of the Bank of England.  The data released earlier showed that retail sales BRC in the similar trading floors of the UK fell by 1.6% y/y in November against the forecast of -0.5%. It was the lowest level of the index since May this year. Activity in the British construction sector declined in November, which was demonstrated by statistics released at the end last week.

According to Markit estimates, PMI CIPS amounted to 52.3 points in November against 53.9 points earlier; however dynamics in the sector of new houses is positive and upward trend in the sector can be interpreted as an indication of the future stabilization. In general, the latest data from Markit looks good and does not rule out prompt recovery of the economic sectors in the future. Minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England will be released this week, and it will be interesting to know comments of the members of the MPC about prospects of inflation in the country.