2011-12-27 10:35:00
The British Pound Sterling is traded slightly upward at the Forex currency marketon Tuesday in response to quiet external background.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD is traded upward in the negative area and is giving a buy signal, while volumes are below average. Stochastic Oscillator is going down in the neutral zone and is giving an antipodal signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdownat the level of 1.5640, target for buying will be the levels of 1.5650 and1.5660. There is a high chance of downward movement.

Markets are closed in the UK today. It becameknown yesterday that house prices Hometrack in the country fell by 0.2% m/m(+2.1% y/y) in December.

Activity in the pair is still low, although some players have resumed trading. The main constraint factor is that it is theyear-end. The Bank of England announced earlier that average inflation ary expectations reduced by 4.1% in November against the level of 4.2% in August.At the same time, the level of two-year inflationary expectations was around3.4% (3.5% previously).

According to the data released earlier CPI inGreat Britain increased by 0.2% m/m (+4.8% y/y), as expected. Therefore,British inflation is slowing down its pace; however the index is still too farfrom the target level of the Bank of England.

Great Britain still tries to keep away from European debt problems: yesterday, during discussions of ways to increase International Monetary Fund with the help of collective contributions, London stated that it would announce its decision at the beginning of 2012. Minutes ofthe last meeting of the Bank of England has been released this week: accordingto the document all members of the IFA (ratio 9-0) voted for main taining interest rate at the current level. In addition, the Committee believes thatchanges in the program of assets purchases will not bring significant benefits;however, if inflation does not subside, the increase in the volume of theassets purchase program can be required. Sharp decrease of inflation is stillexpected in the first 6 months of 2012, the prospects of CPI in the next 6months look more blurry.

 It is also worth noting that the Bank of England expects stagnation in the economy in the next quarter and GDP growth inQ1 next year. 

Revised GDP in the UK rose by 0.6% q/q (+0.5%y/y) in Q3, statistics released earlier has supported buyers. The index isabove preliminary assessment, which was appreciated in the market. It became known earlier that consumer confidence GFK/NOP in the UK declined to-33 pointsin December against the level of -31 points in November. Judging by small real expenditures and low income of house holds, the British are getting more conscious about spending. Index is still at 35-year lows and presently regardedas a negative indication.