2012-01-11 10:36:00
The British Pound Sterling rate started to decline at the Forex currency market on Wednesday , because investors are shifting to a standby" mode before the events scheduled for tomorrow.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD which is traded in the negative area, has shifted into side ways movement today, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator has stopped its fall in the neutral zone and hovered close to lateral line, not giving a clear signal either.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5465, targets for buying will be the levels of отметки 1.5480 and1.5510. There is a high chance that sellers will be back in the pair.

A regular meeting of the Bank of England will be held on Thursday, comments of the Monetary Police Committee members on inflationary situation in the country will represent a special interest.

Statistics released today showed that the UK retail price index BRC increased by 1.7% m/min December against the rise of 2.0% a month earlier. Thus, the index fell to16-month lows, largely due to Christmas sales, when retailers reduced prices. Prices declined by 0.1% on monthly basis.

According to the data released today, house prices in the UK fell by 16% in December, as per RICS estimates. The Pound has neglected this statistics, concentrating on the external background.

Meanwhile, composite PMI in the UK rose to53.2 points in December against the level of 51.2 points in November. According to the data released earlier, PMI in the construction sector rose to 53.2points against expectations of 52 points. In addition it became known in the middle of the week that net consumer lending amounted to 0.394 billion pound in November against the forecast of 0.3 billion pounds. Number of approved mortgage applications in the same month increased to 52.854 thousand against the previous level of 52.786 thousand. It became the maximal level since December 2009.

The data released earlier showed that PMI CIPS in manufacturing sector increased to 49.6 points in December against 47.7points in November. The data is definitely positive; however the fact that the index is below the level of 50 points proves that downward risks are still preserved. The Bank of England announced earlier that average inflationary expectations reduced to 4.1% in November against the level of 4.2% in August. At the same time, the level of two-year inflationary expectations was around 3.4% (3.5% previously).

It is worth noting that the Bank of England expects economic stagnation in Q4 2011 and GDP growth in Q1 2012. Revised GDP in the UK rose by 0.6% q/q (+0.5% y/y) in Q3.

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