At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate is traded slightly downward on Tuesday, while external background is still ambiguous.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD is in the negative area and is going up while volumes are low, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to reverse in overbought area and started to shape a sell signal.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at 1.5560, the pair will go to 1.5565 and 1.5580. If external pessimism prevails, sellers' target will be the level of 1.5455.
Representative of the Bank of England Mr.Posen said yesterday that he still adheres to "pigeon" attitude to monetary policy in the country. Thus he believes that inflation pressure is decreasing rapidly and economic growth is increasing, although in a slow pace. Decision on QE will be adopted at the meeting in February, now members of MPC are discussing possibility to increase the volume of assets purchase. Posen stressed that this is not yet sufficient to stabilize situation in British economy.
Unemployment continues to thrive in Britain. According to estimates, unemployment rate rose to 8.4% in November against the forecast of 8.3%, level of unemployed increased by 118 thousand over three months against +128 thousand in three months before that.
Statistics released earlier showed that consumer confidence Nationwide in the UK reduced to 38 points in December against the level of 40 points in November. It seems that the latest data has smoothed over the rise achieved in November, although it has not been unexpected. The end of 2011 was not simple for the British consumers, which is reflected in statistics. It is worth noting that the Bank of England expects economic stagnation in Q4 2011 and GDP growth in Q1 2012. Revised GDP in the UK rose by 0.6% q/q (+0.5% y/y) in Q3.
The data released earlier showed that house prices in the UK fell by 16% in December, as per RICS estimates. According to the data released previously, house prices Rightmove in the UK dropped by 0.8%m/m (+0.4% y/y) in January. Research Group stated that asking prices fell three times this month; however interest to the British real estate sector is still preserved. Meanwhile, according to experts' estimate, situation in the sector remains "complex" in 2012, as unemployment rate is increasing and impact from European problem is not waning. Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England is going to be released this week, comments of MPC members will be of interest to players; however they are unlikely to affect overall pattern of trades for GBP/USD.
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