2012-02-07 10:49:00
At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate is traded slightly downward on Tuesday maintaining in the five-day range.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD has broken through the signal line from bottom to top and came into the positive area; it is going up slightly and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at 1.5760 the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5750 and 1.5730. A chance is high that the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

Market is in suspense, major currencies almost do not move because anticipations among investors who track developments in Greece.

According to estimates of the National Institute of Economic Research NIESR, British economy will lose 0.1% this year; however in 2013 will resume its growth up to 2.3%. Situation with the households, that have a lot of debts and are not willing to spend money because of obscure economic outlooks, acts as a "hindrance" for the system. In addition, labor market also of importance, the Institute predicts that unemployment rate in 2012 will be over 9%. There is probability that inflation will drop to2.2% from the current 4%, CPI can be at 1.4% in 2013.

We would remind that complex situation preserves in the labour sector. According to estimates, unemployment rate rose to 8.4% in November against the forecast of 8.3%, level of unemployed increased by 118 thousand over three months against +128 thousand in the previous three months. Situation is similar in the retail sector as well.

It became known earlier that consumer confidence index GfK rose up to -29 points in January against the level of -33points in December. This is the record index since summer 2011 and is definitely very positive. A regular meeting of the Bank of England will take place this week; probably comments from MPC will be slightly more aggressive, since it is clearly expected that the Bank shall respond to slowdown of British economy. According to the head of the Bank of England Mr. King, decline in inflation assumes possibility of additional QE; however, rates will likely remain at the current levels. King emphasized that recovery of the British economy will be slow and jerky. He also said that terms of lending are detrimental to economic recovery. At the same time the Bank of England is ready to provide liquidity to banks if a need will be.