2012-02-20 12:18:00
At the Forex currency market the New Zealand Dollar rate is trade dupward on Monday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator goes down in the positive area for the pair NZD/USD and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is going upward in the neutral zone and isgiving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8400, the pair will go to 0.8410 and 0.8430.

Statistics was positive for the New Zealand currency on Monday: business activity index in the service sector BNZ rose to 53.6 points in January against preliminary expectations of 50.9points.

The report showed that growth has been recorded in 4 out of 5 components; however the main catalyst for the growth were the orders of new companies. Employment in the sector increased to 54.2 points which is the maximum since November 2007. 

Statistics released earliershowed that house price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in Januaryagainst preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate fellto 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. This ispositive information indicating that, employment sector, being one of thesupportive factors for the economy, will be able to guarantee stability even incase of pessimistic external influence.

At the meeting in the end of January, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to leave interest rate at the minimal level of 2.5% per annum. According to follow-up comments of the regulator, this decision is reasonable because world economic risks are still preserved, despite internal stability in New Zealand. RBNZ emphasized that inflationary pressure is being steadily contained; however NZD growth negative lyaffects earnings of exporters. 

According to the report of theReserve Bank of New Zealand, the regulator is ready to act if conditions, appropriate for his intervention will be created. In case if the slump of 2008 will be repeated, the RBNZ has a number of measures to avoid the slump ofeconomy in the global scale. It is all about the level of liquidity in the banks. The document was submitted to authorities in December; however the contents of it have been made public only last week. 

Activity index in the service sector of New Zealand fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. 

Trade balance amounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion in November. However, positive factor of the index has already been incorporated into the price. GDPin New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q in Q3 (+1.9% y/y) against the forecast of+0.6% on quarterly basis. Significant support to the economy of New Zealand wasprovided by Rugby Championship which attracted a lot of investment into the country. GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q(+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Thus, New Zealand economy is actually in the state of stagnation. GDP had almost stopped growing, but revived later. Most likely the index will beweaker in Q4.

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