2012-02-23 11:12:00
At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate still have no support on Thursday, although it tries to regain after four days of sales.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the positive area, it started to go down and is shaping a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone andis giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0640, the pair will go to 1.0630 and 1.0610. Apparently, sales will increase in case of breakdown at 1.06.

Australian currency has been "knocked down" by domestic political news: investors discuss rumours that the head of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Australia Mr. Radd will leave his post because of disagreements with Prime-Minister Julia Gillard. Usually the AUD takes political news quietly; however this information can work as drive for trading under dead calm conditions in the market.

According to released statistics,index of wages rise has increased by 1.0% on quarterly basis in Q4 against the previous growth of 0.7%. Growth amounted to 3.6% on annual basis. Statistics released earlier showed that lending in the housing sector of Australia rose by 2.4% in December against the forecast of growth of 1.8%. Statistics supportedthe currency. Inflation in the country showed zero growth in Q4 against theforecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m inDecember against the forecast of growth by 0.2%. According to statisticsreleased earlier, activity index in the manufacturing sector rose by 1.4% inJanuary, up to 51.6 points, as per AI GROUP estimates.

Aggregate activity index Aig in the service sector increased to 51.9 points in January (+2.9 points) against growth of 1.3 points a month earlier. The index has been growing for the third month in a row, while major growth in activity is associated with households. Nevertheless, AiG noted in the comments, that revival in the index is evidentonly in three out of nine component Statistics released last week was positive:unemployment rate in Australia fell to 5.1% in January against 5.2% in Decemberand the forecast of 5.3%. However, according to RBA deputy head, the rise inunemployment rate is not excluded in the coming months due to externalinfluence. He also noted that the rise in investments and high rate of the nationalcurrency have beneficial effect on the economy. Consumer confidence indexWestpac increased to 101.1 points in February against the level of 97.1 pointsin January, which is a good signal

Minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which were released yesterday, were neutral. The document said that the threat of disorderly default in Greece represents the major downward risk and current monetary policy conforms to macro-economic expectations. Issue of rate level has not been considered. GDP growth seems tobe close to two-year trend.

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