2012-02-24 11:35:00
At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate downward at the end of the week because positive external background is still preserved.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator goes up in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY and maintains a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and maintains a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.50, the pair will go to 80.60 and80.80.Consolidation near current levels is highly probable.

According to the rating agency Moody's, Japan has not yet reached the state when economic negative factor would have justified the downgrade of the rating. At the same time economists of the agency noted that weakness of economic policy in the country is still maintained and purchases of bonds would have temporarily nature. It is doubtful that balance of current account will show deficit in the nearest future.

Japanese Prime Minister Mr. Noda said on Thursday that the Bank shall implement its monetary policy more efficiently; measures adopted earlier this month were taken positively by the market and helped to release pressure on the Yen.

Such weak positions, when the JPY fell to 3.5- month lows can be explained by prior statements of the Bank of Japan. At the meeting this week, the Bank of Japan left interest rate at the level of 0.1% per annum; however the Bank has made a step, unexpected for the market increasing volume of the asset repurchase program to 65 trillion yen versus 55 trillion yen previously. This decision was unanimous, as well as the other one: program of purchases of long-term bonds was expanded to Y19 trillion from Y9 trillion. In addition, Central Bank surprised market again, by stating that according to the bank it will be reasonable to set inflation target at 1%,as economic forecasts are extremely hazy.

It was Bank's view on the CPI target that forced the market to revise trading strategies for the Yen.

Radical measures of the Central Bank are just a continued reaction to statistics: GDP in Japan fell by 2.3% y/yin Q4 2011, since European crisis and slowdown in the global economic rate have prevented recovery after natural disaster.