Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD goes down in the negative zone, while volumes are increasing, and is maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone, aiming to go out beyond this zone and is ready to shape a buy signal.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7680 the pair will go to 0.7690 and 0.7720.
After reaching lows of the year, the NZD has approached to the levels which are appealing for purchases.
Statistics released this morning showed that consumer confidence index ANZ in New Zealand fell to 113.9 points in May versus forecast of 114.0. However, producer price index output fell by 0.1% q/q in Q1 against +0.1% on quarterly basis in Q4 2011.
Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 this year against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m.
Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Business confidence NBNZ in New Zealand rose to 35.8 points in April against preliminary expectations of 33.8 points. In addition, trade balance declined to +NZ$134million against the level of +NZ$202 million in February.
Mr. Bollard, the head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand noted last week, that exchange rate of the NZD may remain high even in case of decline in commodity prices; recent weakening of the national currency is directly associated with fundamental basis. At the same time, financial system of New Zealand is very vulnerable to external influence therefore, the RBNZ is prepared to pour liquidity into economy if situation in Europe deteriorates.
Statistics released earlier showed that, business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, versus the level of 28.0 points in February. Boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in business confidence. According to the data released earlier activity in production sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February. According to the previous data activity index in manufacturing sector NZ fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February. Manufacturing PMI declined to 48 points in April versus revised value of 53.8 points in March.