Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF traded sluggishly. Stochastic Oscillator has come into oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9620, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9630 and 0.9640.
Information released yesterday showed that CPI in Switzerland remained unchanged on monthly basis in May and on the annual basis the index has agreed with expectations (-1.0%).
Unemployment rate amounted to 3.0% in May.
It became known earlier that trade balance in Switzerland amounted to 1.33 billion francs in April versus forecast of 1.9 billion francs. Most likely it happened because of high price of the currency, along with decline in the buying activity. Consumer confidence index in Switzerland rose to -8 points in April against the level of -19 points in January. This is a good signal especially because economists expected that index would continue to decline.
Business sentiment ZEW in Switzerland fell to 4.0 points in May versus forecast of -8.0 points and level of +2.1 points in April. Most likely this data is based on assessment of external conditions. PMI in the manufacturing sector of Switzerland fell to 46.9 points in April against the level of 51.1 points in March. Earlier, Ministry of Finance reiterated approval of pegging of the rate of Franc to the Euro. It will mean that the level of 1.20 will be preserved for a long time. Consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.
Statistics released last week showed GDP in Switzerland rose by 0.7% q/q (+2.0% y/y) in Q1 against expectations of growth of 0.5% q/q (+0.7% y/y). It is a good signal which indicates that when positions of Franc go down, national economy is gaining stability.
Similar conclusions can be made from statistics released on Wednesday: when it became known that leading indicator KOF rose to 0.81 points in May against expectations of 0.41 points.
