All-round market view of Bitcoin Cash against BTC. Key levels and the most likely scenarios
In this post, I applied: candlesticks, all-round market view, market balance level, oscillators, trading volume indicator, key levels.
I understand that now all cryptocurrency investors are focused on Bitcoin. All the rest altcoins are wrongly forgotten in this situation; and it is when Bitcoin features the strongest moves, the true nature of an altcoin is revealed and we see, which one was just speculative interest, and which is supported by strong buyers, who are willing to defend their positions. Therefore, as a trader and an asset manager, I am the most interested in the analysis of altcoins, their price moves, compared to falling down Bitcoin.
Today, I’d like to see how Bitcoin Cash is doing.
Unfortunately, there is hardly any news background for Bitcoin Cash; and so, fundamentally, Cash price moves depend on the events, associated with Bitcoin.
In general, if we study the correlation between these two coins, both BTC and BCH have renewed their local lows against dollar. Moreover, Cash has dropped two times deeper than Bitcoin, which can be explained by that pump in early June.
Nevertheless, compared to its local low, BCH hasn’t dropped so much as Bitcoin (it is clear from the slope of dotted lines).
For all-round market view of Bitcoin Cash, let’s look at its monthly chart.
I presented it in my previous forecast dated June 1. There has hardly anything changed, so, I’ll just remind you the symbols, I marked in the chart:
Red line – check point in the monthly timeframe.
Orange dots – previous month’s open and close levels.
Orange line – previous monthly high and lows that haven’t been closed.
Now, let’s move on to the weekly chart.
In addition to the monthly timeframe, I marked Keltner channel’s borders and the market balance level in the weekly chart (purple lines).
As clear from chart above, the last candlestick closed with long black body, almost covering the previous white one.
Now, the ticker is below the market balance level, which suggests a possible drop towards the channel’s bottom border.
Moreover, the current candle already exceeds the open level of the white candlestick and breaks through the previous month’s close level.
If we take a look at oscillators, they are also bearish, which indicates that the price is highly likely to dive lower (MACD is red, RSI is directed downwards at the meeting point of its moving averages)
If bears go ahead, the first support level for bulls will be at 0.133 BTC.
In the daily timeframe, bearish scenario is also evident. Oscillators, MACD and RSI stochastic, are bearish. There is no divergence between the price and the indicators, which also proves the ticker to go down.
If we look closer, at 4-hour timeframe, we can see the local trading channel that is the support zone at the same time. This channel and the local check point strengthen the previous month’s close level (marked with light-red boxes).
Another element that is very prominent is the double top/bottom fractal. Just for a few weeks, there have been already five ones in 4-hour timeframe (marked with green box).
As this model was last time in the beginning of the month, it is likely to repeat soon.
The last and the most important indicator for all altcoins will be Bitcoin.
We see the BTCUSD hourly chart above. As I suggested in my previous article, there was another try to press down the support level at 6611. The try succeeded, but the key level at 6400 hasn’t been broken through. We have already witnessed three strong dumps by manipulators. As a rule, such pressure is followed by a few-day pause.
Bullish divergence proves the possibility of, if not a bullish correction, then at least the consolidation at the current levels in the near future.
However, level 6611 is now the strong resistance, and in the current downtrend, the price can rebound from there and go on falling down.
In general, I don’t rule out a try to press the price down below 6436 USD. And the result of this attempt will say a lot. If the market can’t penetrate this level, a bullish buy signal will emerge and we can expect the price retracement up to somewhere around 6800, the least.
The above scenario for Bitcoin perfectly fits into our forecast for Bitcoin Cash.
After a few days of consolidating, bears are likely to go on their attacks, trying to break through the current lows.
In the next few days, there is likely the consolidation at the current levels with short price jumps.
The peak of this bearish story should be another dump that can send Bitcoin Cash down to the local lows around 0.123 BTC.
Support levels for the next week:
- 0.123 – highly likely to be reached by the price;
- 0.10 – hardly likely to be reached.
Resistance levels for the next week:
- 0.135 – likely to be reached by the price;
- 0.145 – hardly likely to be reached.
I wish you good luck and good profits!
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.