Analysis of the Bitcoin Cash price to BTC. Up-to-date BCH trading scenario amid the growing Bitcoin. Revised targets and key levels.
In this post I applied the following tools: fundamental analysis, all-round market view, market balance level, volume profile, graphic analysis, trendline analysis, oscillators, candlestick pattern, the Kagi and the Tic-Tac-Toe charts
A new week has come, but today, I’d like start my series of crypto forecasts not wit Bitcoin, as I usually do, but with its fork, the financial instrument of Bitcoin Cash. Recently, there has been a new information hype around the Bitcoin Cash altcoin amid its upcoming hardfork.
I’d like to find out what is going on to the BCH cryptocurrency and update my Bitcoin Cash forecast for the next two weeks.
But, before I start my BCH analysis, I’ll compare how the BCHBTC current states corresponds to the previous scenario.
(current BCHBTC state, as of 05.11.2018)
If you compare the above two charts, you’ll see that the ticker has completely worked out the target, indicated in my previous review, and so, I should revise the scenario to trade BCH and set the new targets.
Bitcoin Cash fundamental analysis
I wrote about the upcoming Bitcoin Cash hard fork in my previous BCH forecast on October 16. I won’t describe the suggested modifications in details here, they were analyzed in my previous post about BCHBTC.
As it is clear from the chart above, the BCHBTC price wasn’t rising even amid that news; moreover, the ticker had been going down during two weeks.
Therefore, the recent BCH rise hasn’t resulted from the future upgrading, to be more precise, it has some indirect relation to it, as this event is obviously used to hide the BCHBTC pump.
The fuss among the hamsters was triggered by Binance. It published on its twitter on November 2 that it would support the upcoming bitcoin cash hardfork. Based on the comments, many didn’t even know about the hard fork at that time, which could push the price up.
Binance was soon followed by OKEx and Coinbase, making similar statements on the official websites. What was that? Just a chance or an attempt of the conspiracy between the crypto exchanges? I won’t say for sure, but those announcements supported bulls. Perhaps, that was what the big traders in the BCH market wanted, trying to create incredible demand for the cryptocurrency.
As it is clear from the 15-minute BCH price chart above, the last growth wave was started by a big trader. It is clear from boomed volumes, which were just pushing the BCHBTC ticker up to the new level (marked with yellow circles). Natural growth started as late as on November 4, when the price had reached the top borders of the trading channel.
Therefore, Bitcoin Cash fundamental analysis suggests that the pump is more likely to be artificial, under the cover of the BTC upcoming hard fork.
Technical analysis will give a clue of how long this pump will go on.
BCHBTC technical analysis
As it clear from the monthly BCHBTC price chart above, the recent month closed no very positively. After the doji candle in September, there was a perfect situation for an upside breakout and a good bullish signal. However, manipulators didn’t use the opportunity and didn’t support the growth of the BCH price to Bitcoin. I believe this signal to be warning and confirmation that the administration basically doesn’t aim at supporting the bitcoin cash rate; and so, the present BCH pump can’t be a sure signal of the soon reversal.
In the BCH weekly chart above, you see that the ticker has hit Keltner channel’s center line. At the same level, there is the September monthly high, creating an additional resistance for the bears. Oscillators are both indicating growth, which suggests a potential for the up-move. However, considering the situation in the price chart and close resistance levels, these signal don’t suggest much optimism.
It is clear from the daily BCHBTC price chart above that the price chart repeats the fractal of the previous rise. The situation is so obvious that many will want to enter shorts at the current price levels. Based on the fractal model, the fall won’t be very sharp or deep and should continue through the mid-December; it basically fits in the general state of the cryptocurrency market, where many expect some more activity as 2019 starts.
A possible bearish correction is also indicated by oscillators that are in the overbought zone. In addition, there is a bearish convergence, emerging on the MACD indicator.
The overbought is obvious in the BCHBTC 12H timeframe as well. There should be a correction down to the Keltner channel’s bottom border. Therefore, even if you consider an optimistic scenario and the bitcoin cash continuous rise, the correction down to 0.07570 BTC is necessary to provide natural price growth.
The Kagi chart also confirms a likely drawdown. It is clear that bulls face multiple resistance levels above. Bears have much room below, to drop the BCH price down, The nearest support level is at 0.06588 BTC.
The Tic-Tac-Toe chart eliminates the rest of the optimism, drawing a Megaphone pattern. It is a rather unpredictable pattern, as it can be broken out in either side. But in the current situation, it will be hardly broken through. Moreover, as the formation is broadening at its bottom side, the bottom support levels might be broken out.
Up-to-date BCHBTC price forecast and BCH trading scenario
Summing up all the above, I suggest that the Bitcoin Cash won’t break out the channel in the present momentum. All small traders, who wanted to take part in the famous bitcoin cash hard fork, have already entered; the rest of potential buyers have stayed aside. The most likely scenario for the BCHBTC pair is the BCH correction towards 0.078-0.076. Only after that, bulls may hope that the uptrend will resume; and only within the consolidation, without any sharp price swings. However, the Bitcoin Cash upgrading should have been complete by that time and all the participants will get their coins; therefore BTC is more likely to continue falling down to the momentum base; it might even go below the support levels, towards 0,06511 BTC.
That is my BCHBTC trading scenario for the next two weeks. Read my crypto forecasts in the trader blog. Go on following the cryptocurrency rates and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my crypto price forecasts are useful for you!
I wish you good luck and good profits!
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Price chart of BCHBTC in real time mode
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