BTCUSD analysis: BTC price predictions 2018
Detailed Bitcoin analysis and the most likely scenario for bitcoin to U.S. dollar rate in the near future
In this post I applied the following tools: fundamental analysis, market balance level, volume profile, graphic analysis, trendline analysis, the Tic-Tac-Toe chart
I go on my series of forecasts for the top virtual currencies pairs. But today, considering the uncertainty, associated with Bitcoin, I would like to offer a detailed analysis of the BTCUSD trends.
November, 2018, was really hot for bitcoin. A week ago, I, of course expected that the price of bitcoin will be going down and suggested in my forecasts the downward target at about 3500. But I didn’t expect the BTCUSD ticker to reach it so fast. Obviously, amid the total sluggishness of most crypto traders, manipulators are free to do whatever they want. They organize such strong dumps that can be compared to those, occurred in early 2018, by the trade volumes. However, at that time the crash naturally resulted from the discovered manipulation with Tether issuance and odious audits, along with bankruptcy risks of the only stablecoin, existed at that time. But now, nobody even bothers to somehow justify or explain such a dump, and the media don’t provide any important news. This obvious manipulation frustrates many and they just want to withdraw from the crypto market at all. That is why, even at the current Bitcoin prices, lower than 4000 USD, nobody wants to buy BTC. It surprising, BTCUSD has been going down for more than two weeks already, and no cryptocurrency media haven’t even tried to investigate the reasons and provide any explanation of this crash.
To find out, what levels Bitcoin will be falling down to, we need to understand who will provide the dump. It very hard to press the BTC price down from the levels nobody could even imagine a year ago, and so, they need quite a good horror story. There is likely to be just one story, everybody has forgotten about. It is about quantum computers that hypothetically can crash all the cryptocurrency due to their incredible computing power.
Remember, all global large IT companies are carrying out researches and developments in this field. Google is the pioneer. They are going to launch 22-qubit quantum computer already next year. For you to understand how much a quantum computer that utilizes qubit processors is more powerful than our home PCs with 64-bit processors, just imagine number 2 and ninety zeros, just as many times one qubit is more powerful than one bit. As for me, it sounds quite impressive and scary at the same time. After all, the quantum computers are real, and all blockchain developers will soon have to think over the ways to protect their networks from hacks.
In fact, the legend, made up to get traders to sell bitcoins, doesn't matter so much now. What really matters is to understand who really is driving the market. Those manipulators obviously have a single goal, to buy out as many bitcoins as possible at a minimum price.
Everyone seems to have seen the stages in a bubble.
Every trader is likely to have studied it. But, based on the present cryptocurrency market sentiment, and everybody has disappointed in cryptocurrency and many traders are still holding their digital assets. To crowd out small traders from the market and make everyone believe in the cryptocurrency end, they need to press down the market even deeper. Even the manipulators seem to have no idea of what it will be in fact. But they have already spent too much money and effort to give up now, and from a fundamental point of view, I’m sure they will be pressing down BTCUSD price deeper.
As for BTCUSD technical analysis, the situation is quite clear in the monthly bitcoin price chart above. There is a strong bearish trend the ticker has almost hit the bottom border of Keltner channel, so there will certainly be more tries to hit this level at about 3270 USD. This level is very convenient for buyers. It is obvious that if they start pushing the market up from the current levels, too many traders will join, heating the market quite fast. To find out where exactly manipulators are aiming at, I suggest volume profile. The point of control is at 298 USD. That was bitcoin price in 2015. Now, that level seems to be something fantastic and unreal, but remember, its price a year ago. At that time, 3000 USD for one bitcoin also seemed unreal. However, 298 USD won’t be reached in fact.
If you look at the number of active wallets, according to blockchain.com, their number has increased by approximately about 6.6 times (from 4 700 000 to 31 000 000) since 2015. Of course, the amount of bitcoins has also increased during this time.
According to blockchain.com, the number of bitcoins is up from 4 860 000 BTС to 17 500 000 BTC, that is approximately 11.77% more. Roughly outlined, without taking into account that thousands of bitcoins have been missing on the wallets with lost keys during this time, and ignoring the fact that bitcoins are not equally distributed, even including inflation, the consumer market has grown by 6.5 times.
If you multiply the manipulators’ dream at 298 USD for a bitcoin by 6.5, you’ll get 1937 USD. I suggest this level to the final low in the current environment. The calculation is obviously very primitive, but still, this level looks more real.
There are a few signs, suggesting that the above level is a real bottom.
If you look at the growth wave in 2014, 1.618 Fibonacci extension from this wave is at 1894 USD. This level is now the strong support level.
The next support level, suggested by Gann square of 9 method is at 2117 USD.
The monthly lows of June and July, preceding the all-time record Bitcoin rally, are at around 2046 USD – 1826 USD.
In the logarithmic chart above, you can see that the decreasing cycle, started in 2014, continued for 639 days. If you compare it with the current bearish super cycle, the ticker has been only half way so far. If it goes on in the channel that is now being constructed, its bottom border will be around 2000 USD
In the Tic-Tac-Toe chart, you see the bearish trend developing inside the channel. If the consolidation starts at the current levels, with a try to drive the price back to 6000 USD, the channel will be getting narrower and transforms into a bearish wedge. Its narrowing can well be broken out at about 200 USD.
In general, I don’t think this btc predictions scenario to be pessimistic. The digital currencies market is obviously ignoring the new background and is not responding to any positive news. Now, bitcoin price is being controlled by a large traders, who are aiming at acquiring as much of the Bitcoin as possible. It clear, that, in the context of limited offer, they can achieve this goal only buying out bitcoins at the cheapest prices and pressing its price at the same time, to scare off the hamsters.
That is my BTCUSD global scenario for the nearest future. Read my forecasts for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the trader blog. Go on following the Bitcoin price and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my Bitcoin price predictions are useful for you!
I wish you good luck and good profits!
PS. If you agree with my ideas, write “+” in the comments; if you don’t agree, put “-”. Would you feel that this bottom is a good level to invest in bitcoin today for the long term prospects? Let me know your opinion in comments also.
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Price chart of BTCUSD in real time mode
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