Update on Bitcoin trading ideas and Bitcoin price forecast for the near future
I applied in this post: graphic analysis, trendline analysis, Japanese candlesticks, TD Sequential, Gann levels, Gann fan.
I go on my series of BTCUSD price forecasts.
As, since October 15, USD and USDT have divided the cryptocurrency market in two part, I will note in each Bitcoin analysis that everything written is related to the forecast for the real dollar, not for USDT.
As usual, let’s see how my previous Bitcoin scenario worked out.
(BTCUSD forecast dated December 27, 2018)
(BTCUSD chart on January 10, 2019)
As you see from the charts above, although the suggested drawdown to 3400 didn’t occur (that is where I saw the key support), in general, bitcoin was going according to the scenario for quite a long time. It was quite long going along Gann fan, which again proves the relevance of this indicator, and, as I had written, after the ticker entered new zone, bulls felt free and started drawing Bitcoin up.
I stressed Gann levels in my last BTCUSD forecast. It is clear from the chart above that all the recent vertical time lines of Gann worked out perfectly and matched to the momentum movements accurate within a few hours.
Now you see that the BTCUSD ticker sharply reversed and started falling down. It is clear from the chart above that this event almost coincided with the date of the moon declination that is to be on January 12 (I gave a more detailed description of this phenomenon in one of my previous educational posts). To cut it short, this event is usually accompanied by impulse market movements. The current situation fully proves it.
To see the bitcoin future scenario in more detail, I need to construct new Gann levels for the next week. To draw these lines, I took the interval form the beginning of the year until January 8 as the studied period. Here, in 30-minute timeframe, I market the extreme points for the future analysis with red (see the chart above). Next, I operated according to the instruction I described in one of previous training articles here:
Finally, I found out the following levels:
Price levels: 3031 / 3179 / 3348 / 3481 / 3573 / 3639 / 3685 / 3777 / 3910 / 4079 / 4293 / 4549 / 4840 / 5177
Time levels: 11.01-10:30 / 13.01-07:30 / 15.01-08:00 / 17.01-13:00 / 19.01-22:00.
Remember, these levels are valid through 19.01. After this date, time levels will expire and I will need to remove irrelevant price levels to clear up the chart for the new analysis.
I cleared out chart above, so you see the above given levels as thin blue dotted lines.
Remember, in addition to these lines in the chart, there is also the orange line; it is the moon southern declination. There are also pink dots, which are price and time levels, suggested by long-term analysis, made according to the equinox and the solstice cycles.
The zones that include multiple lines, both horizontal and vertical, form the strong support and resistance zones and so mark the points of potential extremes.
As you see from the chart above, the last BTC drop was quite strong in terms of volumes and easily broke through single horizontal Gann lines. However, the BTCUSD ticker managed to stop in the strong support zone at 3570 USD – 3680 USD. Furthermore, this level is rather close to the angle of Gann fan, an angled, downward line which will be the resistance for bears.
I offer a more detailed BTCUSD technical analysis in order to find out where the bitcoin price will go next and whether it is good to buy bitcoin now.
Besides, I emphasize that I won’t conduct my traditional analysis of cryptocurrency fundamental events as the market ignores 99% of the news and lives its own independent life.
Let’s start with the monthly BTCUSD price chart. There is just the sixth candlestick of the bearish Setup; so, you need to be patient and wait before I can surely suggest full scale bitcoin purchases. Nevertheless, you see that BTC rebounded up from the lower limit of Keltner channel and quite a good volume was formed at the December doji. It means a strong buyout of the levels, and so, the strong support. Therefore, no matter how much bears would like to put shorts, they must be extremely careful as bitcoin will hardly go lower than 3122 USD, according to the current situation.
The above chart shows three timeframes for BTCUSD
On the left, there is the weekly Bitcoin price chart, where I can see nothing good. The last candlestick covers the previous white one by its black body, thus drawing engulfment, which enhances bearish sentiment.
The ticker pricked the strong support levels at 3555 USD downward, which weakens its power; however, it is too early to speak about a sure bears’ victory in the weekly timeframe because the week hasn’t ended yet, and the cryptocurrency market is full of surprises.
One of these surprises is in the BTCUSD daily timeframe in the middle of the chart. There is emerging a pattern, looking like a flag. Although it is hard to believe in it now, but there might be a spike upward in theory.
The H4 BTCUSD price chart on the left confirms the strong overbought, according to RSI stochastic, and suggests a likely rebound at least for speculative purpose. The rebound can easily reach the level around 3800 USD. The zone around 4000 USD is also possible, though less likely.
In general, according to the Bitcoin technical analysis, there isn’t yet any disaster and everything matches to common market fluctuations.
If I take a border view, I can suggest an emerging downward channel in the middle run; the range is very narrow of about 600 USD. Such market behaviour is usually featured when the bearish trend is exhausting, as well as high volatility.
Meanwhile, I think Bitcoin will hardly go below 3400 USD; therefore, I think it is quite safe to buy BTCUSD at around 3600 – 3450, provided there are reversal signals.
If I look closer, at the 30-minute chart, I can suggest, based on Gann levels, the following moves of bitcoin price in future.
From 11 to 13 January, bullish sentiment should dominate, and BTC should be moving within 3480 – 4000 USD.
From 13 to 15 January, Bitcoin correction is possible.
From 15 to 17 January, another growth wave is likely.
From 17 to 19 January, bearish correction within the channel is likely.
This scenario is suggested only based on use of Gann methods and doesn’t guarantee anything. Furthermore, this BTCUSD price prediction must be corrected as the ticker moves through each cell of Gann grid.
In any way, I am curious to see how my bitcoin trading ideas will work out.
That is my BTCUSD trading scenario for the nearest future. Read my forecasts for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in trading blog. Go on following the Bitcoin price and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my Bitcoin price predictions are useful for you!
I wish you good luck and good profits!
PS. If you agree with my ideas, write “+” in the comments; if you don’t agree, put “-”. Would you feel that this bottom is a good level to invest in bitcoin today for the long term prospects? Let me know your opinion in comments also.
If you liked the post, just write thank you, and don’t forget to share the post. It is easy for you and I will be very pleased :)
Stay informed on the latest cryptocurrency news, follow my posts on the blog.
I recommend trying to trade with a reliable broker here. The system allows you to trade by yourself or copy successful traders from all across the globe.
Telegram channel with high-quality analytics, Forex reviews, training articles, and other useful things for traders http://t.me/liteforex.
Price chart of BTCUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.