Updated BTCUSD forecast and Bitcoin analysis for the next week
In this post I applied the following tools: fundamental analysis, all-round market view, market balance level, volume profile, graphic analysis, trendline analysis, Range bars.
Another month is over, and so, it is time to revise and check the trading scenario, based on the current market state. The first will be Bitcoin, in particular, BTCUSD pair.
First, let’s see how accurate the last Bitcoin forecast was.
(BTCUSD forecast, dated 24.09.2018)
(current BTCUSD state, the price chart of Bitcoin to U.S. dollar on 02.10.2018)
As you see from Bitcoin price chart above, in general, the forecast worked out by 70%. I had suggested that ahead closing Bitcoin futures, on 28.09.2018, the market would be more active and Bitcoin price was likely to be corrected. I was right, predicting the depth of the decline; it has been within the big triangle. But the Bitcoin price fell down and rebounded much earlier than I had expected. On the other hand, it hasn’t broken through the triangle’s borders, which will make investors worry for some time more.
BTCUSD fundamental analysis
To understand the preconditions to Bitcoin future price moves up or down, I’ll start with analyzing fundamental drivers. There haven’t been so much news bits during the recent week. There hasn’t been any news that can be the market driver. However, amid the recent events, I can note the article about future problems of the Noble bank. The bank provides services to Tether and Bitfinex, and it is said to hold the Fiat to back the well-known “stablecoin”, Tether.
Moreover, according to modernconsensus.com, the reason for closing the bank is somehow related to the crypto market problems and the long-lasting bearish trend. In the best tradition of FUD, the article author referred to some “highly placed sources’, without providing any proofs. It is not also clear, how the Noble economic situation can correspond to the crypto market state. On the bank’s official website, there are no references to its investment activities or any engagement with the cryptocurrency market. Nevertheless, the market has ignored this this information and has been hardly moving since September 30.
On the one hand, it is a good sign that suggests that, first, the market participants have become more careful about the news and don’t respond to each media message. On the other hand, this stability means a good support from the majority of buyers. It is proved by the Crypto Fear Index on alternative.me.
You see, the indicator hit its local highs on September 26, when Bitcoin was just about to go up. At present, the fear index is still high, which suggests the growing optimism in the cryptocurrency market.
However, such news bits directly mean that the manipulators are trying to create the panic in the market, in order to buy more.
Trade volume is so low now that it is difficult for big traders to enter the market.
Therefore, I can well expect a couple of dumps, trying to press the crypto market down. Based on the regularity of the cycle development of the sentiment indicator, the fear index is very vulnerable. It has already reached the downward trendline and can well go lower, towards the support level at 11 points (now, the index is at the level of 38 points).
However, as I’ve already noted, the correlation between the index and BTCUSD ticker moves is not always 1, so, even if the fear index is down to 11 points in the short term, Bitcoin price may not retest the lows.
To revise the Bitcoin price forecast for future, I suggest all-round market view to analyze the main BTC USD trends in different timeframes.
In the BTCUSD monthly chart above, you see that the last, September candlestick didn’t exceed the borders of the previous one. Taking into account Bitcoin strong volatility, this situation is rather rare for the monthly time frame; and it is even less likely that there will be another candlestick, less in size, to fit into the September levels. So, there will hardly be any strong momentum in the current month.
As I said earlier, there are a lot of support levels in the same zone. In case, Bitcoin goes down, the first level to support BTCUSD will be at about 6146.1 USD, it is Keltner channel’s centre line.
The next is 6100 USD, it is August low.
5755 USD is June low.
In the BTCUSD weekly chart above, BTCUSD ticker is still moving below the bearish trend (the brown, descending line). If it is broken out, the first resistance level will be at 7078 USD, Keltner channel’s centre line in the weekly timeframe. If this level is broken through, it will be the first sign of Bitcoin trend reversal and moving up. The next support level will be at 7429.2 USD, and then, at 8053 USD. Oscillators, in BTC weekly chart are indicating the lack of bulls’ interest, and, in general, are in a balance.
In BTCUSD daily chart, there is emerging a local triangle inside the global, big triangle. As rule, it is a sure sign that the BTCUSD should soon break the triangle’s borders through and move beyond it. Oscillators in the BTCUSD 1D chart are also bearish, rather than bullish; it is indirect evidence of a possible BTC dive.
In the 12-hour timeframe of the BTCUSD price chart, the ticker is about to go down, it may break through the global triangle in the end. However, taking into account multiple support levels, this move can result only the triangle broadening. Tradingview provides and interest function of the market U-turn. Now you can turn any market or indicator upside down see it in a bearish view :)
As result of this turn, bearish correction looks even more likely. According to the oscillators, the positions are now being accumulated; it can result in a strong momentum. In this case, consolidation is tending to the downtrend. As a part of my experiment, I have recently applied the Range bars.
According to the price scale of 100 Range, the lows a being broken through and the highs are getting lower and lower. So, there is emerging a local bearish channel, between levels 6610USD and 6470 USD.
In the scale of 1000 Range, MACD is indicating that BTCUSD is trading in the bearish trend. The bearish divergence (marked with the red line) hasn’t yet worked out completely. The nearest support levels, marked with last Range bar border, are at about 6500 USD.
Updated BTCUSD price forecast and BTCUSD trading scenario:
Summing up all the above, I suggest that BTCUSD will be corrected down inside the giant triangle. The correction target at about 6450-6500 should be reached in the near future. After that, the BTC price can rebound and break through the triangle amid the CME Bitcoin futures last trade date on October 26
The alternative, less likely BTC price forecast, suggests that the triangle will broaden and BTC will go towards 6300 USD – 6100 USD. As long as the market sentiment is positive, I’m sure that many will try to get any opportunity to press Bitcoin down, to buy BTC at a better price.
Go on following the Bitcoin price and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my Bitcoin price predictions are useful for you!
I wish you good luck and good profits!
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Price chart of BTCUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.