Updated BTCUSD forecast and Bitcoin analysis for the next week

In this post I applied the following tools: fundamental analysis, all-round market view, market balance level, volume profile, graphic analysis, trendline analysis, the Kagi chart, the Tic-Tac-Toe chart

Dear friends,

Today, I’m going to update the Bitcoin forecast for the near future and analyze BTCUSD

As usual, I’ll start with comparing the current BTC state and the previous forecast.

(BTCUSD forecast, dated 15.10.2018 )

(BTCUSD current state as of 23.10.2018)

As it is clear from the Bitcoin price chart above, it is still moving in the sideways trend, and the consolidation turned out to be longer than it had been expected.

To find out, where the BTCUSD pair will be moving next, let’s apply fundamental analysis.

Bitcoin fundamental analysis

Since last week and until now, the strongest driver for the entire crypto market has been still Tether and the numerous rumours around it.

After such a strong momentum on October 15, it was clear that there wouldn’t be any sharp price moves soon. This market situation has become a kind of pattern. If you carefully analyze crypto charts, you’ll note that almost any digital asset movement consists of two stages – long consolidation and an instant momentum. Such price moves are featured by manipulated cryptocurrencies.

The manipulation scheme is rather simple. During the consolidation the assets are redistributed – hamsters buy the cryptocurrency out and whales sell it off. It goes on until the hamsters get nervous; at that point, following the long consolidation, whales, instead of buying, press the coin even stronger and start dumping the cryptocurrency, creating the panic in the market. All hamsters, who stocked up during the consolidation, get worried and start selling their assets as they see the channel breakout from above.

At this moment of panic, the manipulators take the money, raised during the period if distribution, and buy the cryptocurrency at a big discount.

There is such an example in the BTCUSD chart above. This pattern most often emerges in minute-charts, as it is far easier for manipulators to control the market in the short-term timeframes.

It is clear in the BTCUSD 15-minute chart above, how manipulators are pumping the Bitcoin price; I marked it with green zone. It is followed by consolidation, when the market continues moving by inertia.

After the market calms down, manipulators start gradually selling the coins bought to hamsters. It is clear in the volume profile. When whales have accumulated a sufficient amount of fiat, they dump the rest of their cryptocurrency, creating a local panic; I marked it with the red circle in the price chart.

When the panic reaches its peak and the whales understand that the market won’t move deeper on its own, they start buying the asset back, getting the cryptocurrency at a big discount; it is marked with the yellow circle.

As it is clear from the chart above, the difference in the BTCUSD rates between Bitfinex, where the major Tether manipulation was performed, and other exchanges, independent from this stablecoin, is still of about 160 USD, that is about 2.49% deviation.

As it is clear from the chart above, tether to USD price is 0.9742 USD, so Tether is 2.58% cheaper than the real dollar. Therefore, arbitrage has worked out; the Bitcoin rates are relatively equal on all large platforms, subject to the amendment of cheap Tether.

So, it can be concluded that the price jump, occurred on Bitfinex, was a fake. Despite the speeches of many analysts, this exchange doesn’t control the market. You see that the BTCUSD ticker on the suspected exchange has fit in the general trend and doesn’t deviate from it.

Therefore, the triangle breakout, occurred on the platforms, trading Tether, is false and I can just ignore it and not take into consideration in the further technical analysis.

BTCUSD technical analysis

 

As it is clear form BTCUSD daily chart above, the ticker has hit the triangle’s top border. MACD hasn’t entered the positive zone, and the RSI stochastic is in the overbought zone. These are indirect evidence that there won’t be any upward momentum in the near future.

Based on the market behaviour pattern described, followed by manipulators, I suggest that BTCUSD is likely to be dumped deeper, at list down to the channel’s bottom border at about 6250 – 6150.

In the Kagi chart above, there are clear support and resistance zones in the channel. The lower border is at about 6250 – 6146. The upper one is at about 6750. In general, these levels correspond to the goals, described above.

In the Tic-Tac-Toe chart, there is no false breakout, as the chart is constructed based only on closing levels.

Finally, there is an almost perfect symmetric triangle, inside which the ticker is moving.

The orange line marks the lowest level, the ticker can reach without breaking the pattern general construction; so, considering the general bearish sentiment of the last column, the ticker is quite likely to break through the triangle from above and slide down.

Updated BTCUSD price forecast and BTCUSD trading scenario

Summing up all the above, BTCUSD is likely to be trading in the wide sideways trend, drawing false spikes. No price surge is possible in this situation. The manipulators’ major goal now is to shake all unwanted participants out of the market before they form a real price movement. So, if you are a real Hodler and have survived through all those dumps, you’d better stay still and hold your bitcoins on. For the rest of traders, the price swings provide a good opportunity to buy at the channel bottom border when it is broken out.

I’m sure there will be a down-momentum soon with a possible spike. I don’t rule out the repetition of the Tether scenario, which should help manipulators organize such a performance and shake the hamsters out. So, fasten your seat belts and get a tight hold of your seats. The show is about to start!

I wish you good luck and good profits!


PS. If you agree with my ideas, write “+” in the comments; if you don’t agree, put “-”. If you liked the post, just write thank you, and don’t forget to share the post. It is easy for you and I will be very pleased :)

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Price chart of BTCUSD in real time mode

BTCUSD: Roller-Coaster

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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