Overview of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week from 10.09.2018 по 16.09.2018
Trading on key Forex news: we expect the decisions of the ECB and the Bank of England on the interest rate, as well as the publication of inflation indicators for the US in August and a number of important macro data for the UK and Australia.
As the US Department of Labor reported last Friday, the non-farm payrolls increased by 201,000 in August, the unemployment rate for the reporting period was 3.9%, wages increased by 2.9% compared to the same period of the previous year. The forecast assumed that the NFPR will be 192,000, and unemployment will be at the level of 3.8%.
This is a strong report on employment, which has become another important argument in favor of further raising interest rates in the US. The dollar strengthened after the publication of the employment report. The dollar index DXY, which tracks the rate of the US currency against the basket of 6 other major currencies, was down from the opening of the trading day on Friday for the third day in a row, and at the beginning of the European session on Friday was near the 94.87 mark. After the publication of a strong employment report at the end of the trading day on Friday, the DXY index was already near the 95.40 mark, which is 40 points higher than the opening level of the trading day and the 95.00 mark.
It is likely that the dollar will continue to rise next week. Investors prefer the dollar not only in connection with the policy of the Fed aimed at further raising the interest rate. Market participants again recalled the trade risks in connection with the intentions of the US president's administration to introduce additional import duties on goods from China worth $ 200 billion. Amid the escalation of trade wars, the dollar has acquired the status of a safe haven asset.
The focus of the traders next week will be on the meetings of central banks in the UK and the Eurozone, as well as the publication of a number of important macro data for the UK, Australia, and the United States.
As always, a number of important macroeconomic data and several important news are expected to be published on the new trading week.
Monday, September 10
11:30 (GMT+3) GBP UK's GDP
GDP is considered an indicator of the overall state of the British economy. The growing trend of the GDP is considered positive for the GBP. The UK's GDP remains one of the highest in the world in annual terms, although its growth slowed down after the referendum on Brexit held in late June 2016. The GDP is expected to grow by 0.3% in July (against + 0.1% in June). The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for GBP.
Tuesday, September 11
11:30 GBP Report on the average wages of the British citizens for the last 3 months
Monthly, the Office for National Statistics of the Great Britain (ONS) publishes a report on average wages, including the period of the last 3 months, with and without bonuses.
This report is a key short-term indicator of the dynamics of changes in the wage level of employees in the UK. The increase in wages is a positive factor for the GBP, while the low value of the indicator is negative. Forecast: the July report assumes that average wages, with bonuses, increased by 2.5% in the last 3 months (against + 2.4% in the previous month); without bonuses - by 2.7% (against + 2.7% in June). If the data coincides with the forecast or is better, the pound is likely to strengthen on the foreign exchange market.
Wednesday, September 12
There are no important macroeconomic news planned.
However,one should pay attention to the publication (at 21:00) of the Beige Book with an economic review from the Fed containing an assessment of the current state and prospects of the American economy. This analysis is used by the FOMC to make the right decision on interest rates. Optimistic views of the economists contribute to the strengthening of the US dollar, and pessimistic ones weaken the USD.
Thursday, September 13
04:30 AUD Employment rate. Unemployment rate. Share of employed citizens in the total population
The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed citizens of Australia. The growth of the indicator has a positive impact on consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. A high value of the indicator is a positive factor for the AUD, and a low value is negative. Forecast: in August the number of employed citizens of Australia increased by 26,700 people (against -3900 people in July). Also at the same time, the Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes a report on unemployment - an indicator that measures the ratio of the unemployed population to the total number of able-bodied citizens. The growth of the indicator shows the weakness of the labor market, which leads to a weakening of the national economy. A decrease in the index is a positive factor for the AUD. Forecast: unemployment in Australia in August rose by 0.1% to 5.4%.
Also the data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics includes an indicator that estimates the proportion of the workforce in the total population. This is the percentage of the total number of the able-bodied population considered a workforce (either employed, or in search of work). Forecast: 65.7% in August (against 65.5% in July).
The indicators are ambiguous. If the values of the indicators prove to be worse than the forecast, the Australian dollar will decrease. Data better than forecast will strengthen the AUD.
10:00 EUR Harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in Germany
This index is published by the EU Statistics Office and is calculated on the basis of the statistical methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the ECB Governing Council to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.
In July, the HICP index (in annual terms) increased by + 1.9%. If the data for August is better than the previous value, the euro will strengthen for a short time.
14:00 GBP The Bank of England's interest rate decision. Report on Monetary Policy. Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England. Planned asset purchases by the Bank of England
It is expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 0.75%. In August, the rate was raised by 0.25%, for the second time in the last 10 years, despite the fact that inflation remains below the forecast, wage growth slowed, and Brexit's uncertainties intensified. Economists believe that the next rate increase will occur no earlier than May of next year, but the balance of risks is shifted towards an even later tightening of monetary policy.
Also at this time, the following is published: a report on monetary policy with the results of voting on the rate and other issues, as well as with comments on the state of the economy; the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England with the distribution of votes for and against the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The main risks for the UK after Brexit are associated with expectations of a slowdown in the country's economic growth, as well as a large current account deficit in the UK's balance of payments.
The program for the purchase of assets by the Bank of England, also called Quantitative Easing, has remained unchanged from August 2016 at 435 billion pounds sterling per month. Probably, the volume of purchase of bonds by the Bank of England on the open market will remain at the same level of 435 billion pounds sterling in September.
And yet, the intrigue about the future actions of the Bank of England remains. And in the pound trade and the FTSE100 index, a lot of trading opportunities are there during the publication of the bank's decision on rates.
14:45 EUR ECB's decision on rates
The ECB publishes its decision on the key rate and on the deposit rate. The ECB's tough position on inflation and the level of key interest rates helps strengthen the euro, a soft position and lower rates weaken the euro. Forecast - the rate will remain at the same level of 0%. The ECB deposit rate for commercial banks is also likely to remain unchanged at -0.4%.
Earlier, the central bank promised to continue buying European bonds under the QE program until September 2018, and also said that it would not consider raising rates for a long time after the completion of this program. The rate increase in the Eurozone is unlikely in 2018. It is widely expected that the ECB will confirm its plans from October to reduce the monthly purchase of bonds to 15 billion euros and complete the QE in December. Earlier, head of the ECB Mario Draghi stated that the QE program can be extended if necessary. If the QE program is extended at this meeting, suppose for six months, then the euro will fall. However, even such a decision will have a limited impact on the markets, economists believe.
15:30 EUR The ECB press conference
Head of the ECB Mario Draghi will speak at the press conference. We should expect a surge in volatility not only in the euro, but in the entire financial market. Mario Draghi is famous for being able to reverse financial markets with his comments. Similar previous decisions of the ECB on interest rate and subsequent press conferences moved the euro rate by 3-5% in a short time. Draghi will assess the current economic situation in the Eurozone and comment on the ECB's decision on rates.
Friday, September 14
13:00 GBP Speech by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney
Participants of the financial markets are expecting him to clarify the situation regarding the future policy of the central bank of Great Britain. Volatility during his speech usually grows abruptly in the pound trade and in the FTSE - the index of the London Stock Exchange, if Mark Carney gives any hints at tightening or easing the monetary policy.
If he does not touch upon the questions of the monetary policy of the Bank of England, the reaction to his speech will be weak.
15:30 USD Retail sales (ex autos). Retail Control Group
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in the US, showing a change in sales in the retail sector. The indicator Retail Control Group estimates the volume in the entire retail industry and is used to calculate price indices for most commodities. A strong result strengthens the US dollar, and vice versa, a weak report weakens the dollar. Forecast: the volume of retail trade in the US rose in August by 0.4% (against + 0.5% in July).
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
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