Overview of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week from 12.11.2018 to 18.11.2018
Trading on key Forex news: we expect the publication of data on the labor market and inflation indicators in the UK, third-quarter GDP in Germany and the Eurozone, Eurozone consumer inflation indices, as well as data on US retail sales in October
Last week the Fed kept key interest rates in the range of 2.00% -2.25%. The leaders of the Fed confirmed the plan for a further gradual increase in interest rates. They stated this in a statement released on Thursday, which dispelled the doubts of some investors in the December rate hike.
The meetings of the central banks of Australia and New Zealand held last week did not bring any surprises. The current monetary policy of banks remained unchanged. Two weeks earlier, the same monetary policy decisions were made by the central banks of Japan and the United Kingdom. Thus, the Fed remains the only global central bank tightening its monetary policy.
With an increase in interest rates, the demand for national currency increases, as a rule.
The main competitor of the dollar on the foreign exchange market, the euro also remains under pressure amid the controversy between the European Commission and the Italian government over the draft budget of Italy.
The euro was also under pressure after the publication last Thursday of a report by the European Commission, in which it lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the Eurozone from 2% to 1.9% next year.
The focus of traders on the new week will be on data from the labor market and inflation indicators in the UK, GDP of Germany and the Eurozone for the third quarter, Eurozone consumer inflation indices, as well as data on the level of US retail sales in October.
It is also possible that the new week will begin with a jump in oil prices, if unexpected decisions are taken at the coming weekend at a meeting in the United Arab Emirates of the countries participating in the OPEC + agreement. So far, oil prices are actively falling, both against the background of falling global stock indices, and against the backdrop of a stronger dollar and rising reserves in US oil storage facilities.
As always, a number of important macroeconomic data and several important news are expected to be published on the new trading week.
Monday, November 12
There are no important macro data planned to be published.
In the US, Monday is a day off due to the national Veterans Day. The US banks will be closed; trading volumes will be reduced.
Tuesday, November 13
09:30 (GMT) GBP Report on the average wages in Britain for the last 3 months
The Office of National Statistics of the United Kingdom (ONS) publishes a monthly report on average wages, including a period for the last 3 months, with and without bonuses.
This report is a key short-term indicator of the dynamics of changes in the level of wages of employees in the UK. Its growth is a positive factor for GBP, and a low value of the indicator is negative. Forecast: the September report suggests that the average wage, with bonuses, has increased over the last 3 months (July-September) by 3.0% (against + 2.7% in the previous period); without bonuses - by 3.1% (against + 3.1% in the previous period). This is positive data. If they coincide with the forecast or turn out to be better than it, the pound will probably strengthen on the foreign exchange market.
Also at this time data on unemployment in the UK is published. For 3 months from July to September, unemployment is expected to remain at the same level of 4.0%. Since 2012, the UK unemployment rate has been steadily declining. This is a positive factor for the pound.
Wednesday, November 14
07:00 EUR Germany's GDP (preliminary release)
The publication of data has a significant impact on the euro quotes due to the paramount importance of the German economy for the euro area. A high value is a positive factor for EUR. Forecast: German GDP in the third quarter of 2018 decreased by -0.1% after rising by 0.5% in the second quarter.
The report on the gross domestic product for the 3rd quarter may indicate that the German economy is slowing down after a weak start of the year, although it still remains the locomotive of the entire European economy.
This is a negative factor for the euro. If the forecast is confirmed or is worse, the euro will fall.
09:30 GBP Consumer price index. Core CPI
The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices for a group of goods and services that are part of the British consumer basket. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation. During its publication, there will be major movement on the foreign exchange market in the pound trade and the index of the London Stock Exchange FTSE100.
As expected, annual consumer inflation in October increased by + 0.2% and + 2.5% in annual terms. In the previous month, the increase was + 0.1% and + 2.4%, respectively.
The sharp fall of the British pound after the Brexit referendum contributed to the growth of inflation to current levels. The sharply increased inflation in the country suggests that the Bank of England may again return to the question of raising interest rates in the UK. And this is a positive factor for the pound. Values below the forecast can trigger a weakening of the pound.
Core CPI is published by the Office of National Statistics and determines the price change of the selected basket of goods and services (except for food and energy) for the period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changing consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the GBP, a negative one weakens it.
Forecast: in October, core CPI (in annual terms) increased by + 2.0% (against + 1.9% in the previous month). The growth rate should have a positive impact on the pound.
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP for the 3rd quarter (second estimate)
GDP is considered to be an indicator of the overall state of the Eurozone economy. The growing trend of GDP is considered positive for the EUR, a low result weakens the EUR.
Recently, macro data from the Eurozone has indicated a slowdown in the European economy. Against the background of steadily low inflation, the risks of a slowdown in the growth of the European economy may force the ECB leadership to extend the QE program instead of its completion in December. ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated during a press conference after a central bank meeting in October that economic risks remain balanced. In his opinion, low growth rates in the first half of 2018 are temporary. Mario Draghi also previously stated that the QE program can be extended if necessary.
Forecast: in the third quarter, Eurozone GDP grew by + 0.2% (+ 1.7% in annual terms). The first preliminary assessment of the state of the European economy in the third quarter showed an increase of + 0.2% (+ 1.7% in annual terms). The forecast was: + 0.4% (+ 1.9% in annual terms). If the data is weaker, the euro will decline. Data better than the forecast and the first assessment will strengthen the euro.
13:30 USD Core CPI
Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services for a given period and is a key indicator for estimating inflation and changing consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator for a more accurate estimate. A high result strengthens the US dollar, and a low one weakens it. October forecast: + 0.2% (+ 2.2% in annual terms) versus + 0.1% in September (+ 2.2% in annual terms).
If the data is confirmed, the dollar is likely to respond with a growth of quotations.
15:30 USD Weekly report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy on the reserves of oil and petroleum products in US storages
The publication of data is usually accompanied by a surge in volatility in oil prices, which are denominated in US dollars. A decrease in reserves, as a rule, has a positive effect on oil prices. The previous value was +5.78 million barrels of oil and petroleum products. If the reserves of oil and oil products in the United States rose again last week, then this will negatively affect oil prices.
In recent weeks, there has been a drop in oil prices. Last Friday, oil prices hit new 5-week lows below $ 70.00 per barrel of Brent crude. In September, Brent crude was quoted at $ 86.60 a barrel, which is a multi-year high.
Thursday, November 15
00:30 AUD Employment rate. Unemployment rate. Share of labor force in the total population
The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed Australian citizens. The growth of the indicator has a positive impact on consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. A high value is a positive factor for the AUD, and a low value is negative. Forecast: in October, the number of employed Australian citizens increased by 20,000 people (against + 5,600 people in September). Also at the same time, the Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes a report on unemployment - an indicator that measures the ratio of the unemployed population to the total number of able-bodied citizens. The growth rate indicates a weak labor market, which leads to a weakening of the national economy. The decline is a positive factor for the AUD. Forecast: Unemployment in Australia in October was 5.1% versus 5.0% in September (in August the unemployment rate was 5.3%).
Also among the data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there is an indicator of the share of labor force in the total population. This is the percentage of the total number of working-age population considered to be labor force (either employed or in search of work). Forecast: 65.5% in October (against 65.4% in September).
In general, the indicators can be described as positive. If the values of the indicators are worse than the forecast, the Australian dollar will decline. Data better than forecast will strengthen the AUD.
13:30 USD Retail sales (ex auto sales). Retail control group
This report (Core Retail Sales Ex Autos) reflects the total sales of retailers of all sizes and types, with the exception of car dealerships. The change in retail sales is a major indicator of consumer spending. The report is leading, and in the future the data can be greatly revised. High result strengthens the US dollar, low result weakens it. October forecast: + 0.5% (against -0.1% in September).
Retail sales is the main indicator of consumer spending in the United States, showing the change in sales in the retail sector. The Retail Control Group indicator measures volume across the entire retail industry and is used to calculate price indices for most products. A high result strengthens the US dollar, and vice versa, a weak report weakens the dollar. Forecast: US retail sales rose by + 0.3% in October (against + 0.5% in September).
In general, the indicators can be considered positive, and the dollar is likely to respond with an increase to their publication.
Friday, November 16
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (CPI). Core CPI (Final Release)
The consumer price index (CPI) is published by Eurostat and determines the price change of the selected basket of goods and services for the period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changing consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative one weakens it.
Forecast: in October, CPI index (in annual terms) increased by + 2.2%, Core CPI increased (in annual terms) by + 1.1% (against + 0.9% in the previous month). In general, the data can be described as positive. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast, then the euro will weaken.
The updated data does not differ from the data of the preliminary release. Probably, the reaction to their publication will be weak if the data coincide with the preliminary estimate.
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
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