Overview of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week from August 13, 2018 to August 19, 2013
Trading on key Forex news: we expect publication of important macro statistics for Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada, including data on GDP, consumer inflation, and the labor market.
The result of the previous week was a sharp strengthening of the dollar. The dollar index DXY, which tracks the rate of the US currency against the basket of 6 other major currencies, jumped on Friday to 96.31, the next yearly high. Last time DXY was near this mark in June 2017. DXY has been growing for the third consecutive week. Of this series, the last two trading days of the past week were especially notable, when DXY grew by 1.5% in just two days.
The dollar remains the favorite on the foreign exchange market, even despite its fall against the yen, which is explained by the attempt of investors to avoid the risks of economic and political upheavals in the world.
The administration of the US president said on Tuesday that at the end of August, it will introduce a new 25% duty on the import of Chinese goods for $16 billion. On Wednesday, the Ministry of Commerce of China threatened the introduction of response mirror measures for the same volume. New Chinese and US duties will come into force on August 23.
Also, investors' attention was attracted by the record decline of the Turkish lira last week, and by 20% only in one day, on Friday.
Concerns over Turkey have caused sharp sales of stock assets, especially in Europe. Against the dollar, the euro fell significantly, including due to the concerns over Turkey.
The next week's attention will be focused on the publication of data on GDP (for the 2nd quarter) and consumer inflation for July in Germany and the Eurozone, data on the labor market in Australia for July, and macro statistics from the UK (consumer price indices for July and market labor data).
As always, a number of important macroeconomic dataand several important news are expected to be published on the new trading week.
Monday, August 13
There are no important macroeconomic news planned.
Tuesday, August 14
09:00 (GMT+3) EUR Harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in Germany
This index is published by the EU Statistics Office and is calculated on the basis of the statistical methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the ECB Governing Council to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.
Forecast: in July, the HICP index (in annual terms) increased by 2.1% (against + 2.1% in the previous release). If the data prove to be better than the forecast, then the euro will strengthen for a short time.
09:00 EUR GDP of Germany
The publication of the data has a significant impact on the quotes of the Euro due to the paramount importance of the German economy for the Euro area. A high value is a positive factor for EUR. Forecast: Germany's GDP in the second quarter of 2018 grew by 0.4% (preliminary release) after growth of 0.3% in the first quarter.
The report on the gross domestic product for the second quarter may indicate that the German economy is recovering again after the weaker first quarter and remains the locomotive of the entire European economy.
11:30 GBP Report on the average wages of the British for the last 3 months
Monthly, the Office for National Statistics of Great Britain (ONS) publishes a report on average wages, including the period of the last 3 months, with bonuses and without bonuses.
This report is a key short-term indicator of the dynamics of changes in the wage level of employees in the UK. The increase is a positive factor for GBP, while the low value of the indicator is negative. Forecast: The June report suggests that average wages, with bonuses, increased by 2.5% in the last 3 months (as well as in the previous month); without bonuses - by 2.6% (against + 2.7% in May). If the data coincides with the forecast or is better than it, the pound is likely to strengthen on the foreign exchange market.
12:00 EUR Eurozone GDP (second estimate)
GDP is considered an indicator of the overall state of the Eurozone economy. The growing trend of GDP is considered positive for EUR, a low result weakens the EUR.
Recently, macro data from the Eurozone has indicated a slowdown in the growth rate of the European economy. Against the backdrop of steadily low inflation, the risks of a slowdown in the growth of the European economy may pause the likelihood of the completion of the QE program for an indefinite period.
Nevertheless, ECB President Mario Draghi assured at the press conference after the meeting of the central bank in July that the economic risks remain balanced and the slow growth rates in the first half of 2018 are temporary.
Forecast: in the second quarter, Eurozone GDP grew by 0.3% (+ 2.1% in annual terms). If the data are weaker, then the euro will decline. Data better than the forecast will strengthen the euro.
Wednesday, August 15
11:30 GBP Consumer price index. Core consumer price index
The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices for a group of goods and services that are part of the British consumer basket. The CPI index is a key indicator of inflation. Its publication causes major movement of the pound on the foreign exchange market, and volatility of the index of the London stock exchange FTSE100.
As expected, the annual inflation in July fell by -0.2%, but increased by + 2.5% in annual terms. In the previous month: 0.0% and + 2.4%, respectively.
The sharp drop in the British pound after the referendum on Brexit contributed to the growth of inflation to current values. The sharp increase in inflation in the country gives grounds to assume that the Bank of England can again return to consideration of the question of raising the interest rate in the UK. And this is a positive factor for the pound. Values below the forecast can trigger a weakening of the pound.
The Core CPI is published by the Office of National Statistics and determines the change in prices of the selected basket of goods and services (except food and energy) for this period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changing consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the GBP, the negative - weakens it.
Forecast: in July, the base CPI (in annual terms) increased by 2.2% (against + 1.9% in the previous month), which should positively affect the pound.
13:00 GBP Report on inflation
The Governor of the Bank of England and the members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee speak in Parliament with comments on the current economic situation and economic prospects. At this time, volatility in pound trades could rise sharply. One of the main benchmarks for the Bank of England regarding the prospects for monetary policy in the UK, in addition to GDP, is the level of inflation. If the tone of the report is soft, the British stock market will receive support, and the pound will decrease. Vice versa, harsh rhetoric of the Bank of England's representatives in terms of containing inflation, implying an increase in the interest rate in the UK, will lead to a strengthening of the pound.
15:30 USD Core Retail Sales (ex autos). Retail Control Group
This report (Core Retail Sales Ex Autos) reflects the total sales of retailers of all sizes and types, except for car dealers. The change in sales in the retail sector is the main indicator of consumer spending. The report is leading, and further data can be heavily revised. A high result strengthens the US dollar, a low one weakens it. Forecast: + 0.4% (against + 0.4% in June).
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in the US, showing a change in sales in the retail sector. The indicator "Retail Control Group" estimates the volume in the entire retail industry and is used to calculate price indices for most commodities. A strong result strengthens the US dollar, and conversely, a weak report weakens the dollar. Forecast: the volume of retail trade in the US rose in July by 0.4% (against 0.0% in June).
Thursday, August 16
04:30 AUD Employment rate. Unemployment rate
Employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed citizens of Australia. The growth of the indicator has a positive impact on consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. A high value of the indicator is a positive factor for AUD, and a low value is negative. Forecast: in July, the number of employed citizens of Australia increased by 27,300 people (against +50900 people in June).
Also at the same time, the Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes a report on unemployment - an indicator that measures the ratio of the unemployed population to the total number of able-bodied citizens. The growth of the indicator shows the weakness of the labor market, which leads to a weakening of the national economy. A decrease in the index is a positive factor for AUD. Forecast: unemployment in Australia in July rose by 0.1% to 5.5%.
The indicators are ambiguous. If the values of the indicators prove to be worse than the forecast, the Australian dollar will decrease.
Data better than forecast will strengthen the AUD.
Friday, August 17
12:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (CPI). Core CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published by the Eurostat and determines the change in prices of the selected basket of goods and services for a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.
Forecast: in July, CPI (in annual terms) grew by 2.0%, Core CPI grew by 1.0% in annual terms (against + 1.1% in the previous month). Nevertheless,Core CPI fell in July in monthly terms by -1.3%, which is a negative factor for the euro.
In general, the data can be characterized as ambiguous. If the data prove to be worse than the forecast, the euro will weaken.
15:30 Core Consumer Price Index in Canada
The Core CPI of the Bank of Canada reflects the dynamics of the retail prices of the respective basket of goods and services (excluding fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transport, and tobacco products). The target inflation rate for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1% -3%. The growth of the CPI is a precursor of the rate increase and a positive factor for the CAD. Forecast: for July, consumer prices rose in Canada by 1.3% (against + 1.3% in June) in annual terms. If the data are worse than the forecast, this will negatively affect the CAD.
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