Ethereum analysis in the ETHBTC pair
Updated middle-term Ethereum price forecast. Key levels to trade ETHBTC and major prospect of Ethereum future
Today, I’d like to update ETHBTC price forecast and perform a thorough analysis of Ethereum price.
As usual, let’s see how Ethereum current trend corresponds to my previous forecast.
(previous ETHBTC forecast, dated 17.10.2018)
(ETHBTC state as of 30.10.2018)
As it is clear from the charts above, Ethereum actual movements haven’t met bears hopes for its correction. Finally, the market has followed the cryptocurrency benchmark, Bitcoin, trading in the extremely narrow channel.
Comparison of the performance of Ethereum and Bitcoin to the USD in the chart above proves my words. You don’t need to be an expert to understand that Ethereum is currently following Bitcoin, repeating its every movement in sync. It means only one thing, Ethereum has no own drivers to move independently.
Therefore, there are no fundamental factors as well. The entire fundamental analysis can be basically framed to analyzing the general crypto market situation.
Fundamental analysis of the cryptocurrency market
As I already wrote in my previous post, the crypto market is accumulating positive information that is constantly ignored by bears. On the one hand, it suggests the manipulators should prepare the background for the next rise. On the other hand, it means buyers’ weakness and strong bearish sentiment.
One of the signs that big traders are preparing a soon pump is the news about a new boom, spread by media people.
For example, Tim Draper, a famous cryptocurrency investor, confirmed in the media on October 28 that he was still confident that Bitcoin will be at 250,000 USD in 2022.
To my surprise, many crypto media spread the news about the investments by Warren Buffett’s fund in fintech. They suggest StoneCo Ltd and Paytm as the examples. It sounds excellent, of course, but it is not clear about the cryptocurrency here. Fintech can describe any service that provides financial services both for individuals and for business. Cryptocurrency can be included in fintech, of course; but it doesn't mean that fintech is only cryptocurrencies alone. As for StoneCo Ltd and Paytm, mentioned above, they are not directly engaged with cryptocurrencies, as the work with money transfers in fiat, rather than in cryptocurrency.
Such distortion of the real facts suggests that manipulators are trying to change the market sentiment to positive, persuading people that everything will be good and they should come back to the market.
Based on this logic, such behaviour makes sense in two cases: either, large traders want to exit the market amid the positive, taking the profit; or, they have already bought enough and are going to shake the market, so that hamster will drive it up, so that manipulators can sell with profits.
In this case, it is clear that everybody who wanted could sell off and exit the market.
As it is clear from ETHBTC chart, there was strong buyout of Ethereum at 0.0269 BTC with big volumes. The big traders are likely to have entered longs at the level.
Currently, it is clear that the ETHBTC ticker is going down towards the channel’s bottom borders and has already approached the levels, where big traders entered.
The manipulators natural response is defending their positions; as the can’t exit in such a weak market, they can do nothing but shake the market and try to generate as much positive as possible.
ETHBTC technical analysis
In the weekly ETHBTC price chart, it already quite clear that large traders are defending their positions and buying out Ethereum below level 0.031 BTC. Oscillators, responding to such behaviour of the market participants, naturally leave the oversold zone, sending the signal that there is consolidation and accumulation of the positions.
In the ETHBTC daily chart above, you see that the level to defend the positions is at 0.0308 BTC. THE market has been hitting it over the recent few weeks. The level is likely to be broken through; however, it is a good level to enter longs, as there is a clear support zone, and, taking into account the ticker location, one can enter a long quite safely.
On the other hand, it may well turn out to be a trap, set by crypto exchanges, which try to lure buyers with short stops, so that they can easily trigger the stop orders.
In the ETHBTC 12H chart above, there is a rather strong MACD bearish signal. It is impossible to go against such a signal. According to the last black candlestick, the sellers are still dominating in the market.
As it is clear from 4-hour chart above, ETHBTC ticker has broken the local trend, but hasn’t moved lower, which proves the breakout to be false. The price, following a short flat, is likely to climb back into the channel between 0.0310 BTC – 0.0317 BTC.
In the Kagi 12H chart above, it is clear that the consolidation is developing in such a narrow channel that all the support and resistance levels have blended into a single zone. However, the consolidation stands out with not only its length and a very narrow corridor; there is no typical projection, suggesting the movement will go on.
As it is clear from the chart above, just as I always emphasize, that there occurs a false breakout in the direction, opposite to the general trend, before the consolidation finishes. So, it is the further evidence of the soon rebound.
In the Tic-Tac-Toe chart above, you see that the ticker is drawing a pattern, looking like a symmetric triangle. Currently, ETHBTC price is at the level of the triangle’s bottom leg; so I can outline the level for the future Ethereum rebound, I have written before. The top leg is at about 0.0335 BTC. If the scenario with the future rebound works out, the momentum can well develop up to these levels.
Updated ETHBTC price forecast and Ethereum trading scenario
Summing up all the above, manipulators are likely to hold the ticker at the suggested levels, which will provide a short-term upward momentum towards 0.0335 BTC – 0.0340 BTC. Taking into account that the general market is passive and depressed, the manipulators are likely to fix a part of the profit and move to the same level, where they were buying, to the channel’s bottom border. It is not yet clear, whether the support will be held at those levels or the market will be dumped deeper. As everybody is quite tired of the sideways trend, any sharp market move can start the strong global trend development. Based on the global support levels for BTCUSD, I still suggest the bullish trend in future.
That is my ETHBTC trading scenario for the next few weeks. Go on following the Ethereum price and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my Ethereum price predictions are useful for you!
I wish you good luck and good profits!
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Price chart of ETHBTC in real time mode
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