Ethereum analysis in ETHBTC pair
Updated middle-term Ethereum price forecast. Key levels to trade ETHBTC and major prospect of Ethereum future
Following the recent events associated with Tether, many cryptocurrencies feature strong market changes. In this post, I’ll analyze the ETHBTC pair.
First, let’s see, how Ethereum real trend corresponds to my previous forecast.
(ETHBTC forecast dated 10.10.2018)
(ETHBTC state as of 17.10.2018)
It is hard to admit that the forecast is not working out, but I’, sure that is what distinguishes a real trader from an amateur one. Everybody makes errors. That matter is in the attitude to the mistakes. You can conceal or deny your error, or admit it and draw the right conclusion.
The biggest flaw in my previous scenario is its discrepancy with the BTC trend forecast. Just a couple of days before, I had suggested a bearish momentum for Bitcoin, but didn’t take it into consideration in my ETH price forecast.
I have made the same mistake more than once; and so, for myself, and for you, my dear readers, I’ll say once again that the forecasts for altcoin price moves shouldn't much differ from that for the crypto market benchmark, Bitcoin. And if the suggested trends are oppositely directed, one must look for the reasons for the divergence.
Therefore, I should analyze the ETH future price movements, based on the last relevant BTCUSD forecast.
In the chart above, there is BTCUSD trading scenario, suggested in the forecast dated 14.10.2018. I suggested that BTCUSD rate should go on trading inside the range of 6000 – 7000 for quite a long time. As some time has passed already, I’ve corrected it a little, taking into account the signals on hourly charts. I marked the blue arrow that indicates a possible bearish correction with the target to exit the oversold zone, where the ticker is now.
There have been no fundamental changes around Ethereum over the recent week. The only event, you might be interested in, is the delay in the future hardfork Constantinople. According to the recent information the hardfork won’t occur earlier until November. But, in general, it had been quite expected.
However, I don’t think that the actual network update will be held before December, it hasn’t yet been launched in the test mode, although the test launch had been planned for October 14.
The difficulty of the next hardfork is that, in addition to upgrading the current network parameters, the code should be successfully combined with the next version of Istanbul, that is planned to be launched in 8 months after Constantinople.
ETHBTC technical analysis
In the ETHBTC monthly chart above, there no fundamental changes, compared to the previous scenario. The key levels have remained the same. The room for a deeper fall is strictly limited by a series of numerous support levels, from 0.028 BTC up to 0.0239 BTC.
Unfortunately, there aren’t yet any reversal candlestick patterns. The black hammer of the previous months hasn’t yet been confirmed. It is still too early to get worried, as October isn’t finishing yet; however, if the situation doesn’t fundamentally change by the end of the months, there should a signal of consolidation in the narrow range between 0.0317 BTC and 0.0400 BTC.
In the weekly Ethereum price chart above, it is clear that Ethereum, like Bitcoin, is trading in a kind of triangle. Currently, the ETHBTC ticker has closely approached the bottom leg of the pattern and hasn’t yet rebounded or wen down. In addition, oscillators have started moving, sending reversal signals. Another evidence for the price growth is the bullish divergence in the price movement and the MACD indicator (marked with the purple line).
The strong bullish signal is the cycle nature. Thanks to my dear reader, @Artur007, for drawing my attention to it.
As it is clear from the chart above, the new growth wave should start either in December, or with the first two months of the next year.
Whether it is by chance or not, but the final Constantinople launch in December might become the trigger for the new uptrend.
In the Ethereum daily chart, you see that the ETHBTC pair is in the bearish trend, and so, bears have now an advantage and any price rise is considered to be a correction in the bearish trend. In this situation, it is remarkable that the RSI stochastic is painting a descending wedge, which is a bearish pattern and indicate bearish sentiment.
MACD hasn’t crossed zero level as well, and even despite the green signal, it is still in the bearish zone.
In 12-hour ETHBTC price chart above, you see that the momentum, occurred October 15, following the story with Tether, has been completely sold off by bears; it means ETH price will hardly go up. Oscillators look not that encouraging in general, and don’t send clear buy signals.
In the Tic-Tac-Toe chart, there is a clear consolidation in the range of 0.03 – 0.037. There is a local downtrend, emerging above, that will support bears.
The next support zone is at about 0.027 BTC.
In the 4-hour Kagi chart, there are clear support levels at 0.029 BTC and 0.027 BTC; the resistance levels are at 0.034 BTC, 0.035 BTC and 0.036 BTC.
There is also emerging a pattern, similar to that was in late September. It suggests that the price should go a little higher and follow by a drop.
Updated ETHBTC price forecast and Ethereum trading scenario
Summing up all the above, the Ethereum trading scenario for the near future looks like this:
As it is clear from the chart above, the ETHBTC is likely to test the channel’s bottom border in the near future and may rebound, according to the pattern in the Kagi chart; it might be followed by a drop. I think the drop may occur if the Constantinople hardfork is put off again. Ethereum might go even deeper than it is displayed in the chart, as the support zone starts at 0.028 and finishes at 0.026. When the ETHBTC ticker reaches the support zone in late November-early December, the situation should start stabilizing; and the should be the first signs of the Ethereum global reversal, according to the idea of ETHBTC market’s cyclic nature.
That is my ETHBTC trading scenario for the next few weeks. Go on following the Ethereum price and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my Ethereum price predictions are useful for you!
I wish you good luck and good profits!
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Price chart of ETHBTC in real time mode
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