Analyzing the Etherium rate in the ETHBTC pair
Updating the medium-term Ethereum prediction. Determining the key levels for the ETHBTC and prospects of the Ethereum rate
In this post, I used fundamental analysis, panoramic market survey, oscillator analysis, key level analysis, trend analysis, indicator analysis, Renko chart and linear breakthrough, Tic-Tac-Toe, Kagi
I'm continuing the series of forecasts for crypto currencies, and today we will talk about the price of Ethereum cryptocurrency in the analysis of the ETHBTC.
First, let's check how well the analysis I did two weeks ago forecasted the current dynamics on the ETHBTC market.
(ETHBTC forecast dated 13.09.2018)
(ETHBTC as of 26.09.2018)
As we see from this comparison, the ticker realized the target for testing the bearish channel, but its breakthrough occurred earlier than expected.
From the point of view of technical analysis, this deviation from the forecast can cause a significant revision of the entire scenario, since we originally identified the reversal pattern - double bottom (the blue contour), but here we see a formed ascending wedge with a breakthough down.
In order to understand the further course of the ETHBTC, I suggest starting with a fundamental analysis.
Fundamental analysis of the ETHBTС
From the point of view of the news background over the past two weeks, thing are calm enough. It is impossible to single out a single event able to have even slight influence on the Ethereum.
As you can see from the chart above, Ethereum is traditionally more volatile than Bitcoin, but it correlates well enough with both the top-10 crypto currency index (ex ETH), and the benchmark of the crypto currency market - Bitcoin.
This fact indicates that at the moment Ethereum does not have an internal driving force, and therefore it is influenced solely by the general news background and market sentiment.
The main negative factor that now dominates the market is the fact that within the bankruptcy procedure of once the largest crypto exchange Mt. Gox, 24,658 BTC were sold recently, which means that it has 141,666 BTC left to sell under the bankruptcy procedure.
Nobuaki Kobayashi in an interview to CNN dated March 2018, said that they will be sold at the highest possible price.
And now, looking at the Bitcoin chart, I have a curious idea. Indeed, the current price is hardly a maximum, and sales of a huge mass of Bitcoins can hardly be referred to as a reasonable move.
However, no matter how paradoxical it may sound, reasonable sales can lead eventually to a market reversal.
If we look at the chart above, we see that the last manipulator's actions forced the market to shrink to an incredibly tiny size, like a large spring under a press.
Graphically, this spring looks like a triangle, the breakout of which can become a turning point for the entire crypto currency market.
With his resources, Nobuaki can draw any patterns on the market and in the case of a bullish trend, Kobayashi could periodically drop bitcoins, thereby cooling the market and not letting it overheat on the one hand, and fulfilling his official duty and successfully repaying the affected investors, on the other hand.
However, this is just a hypothesis. One thing is certain though - it doesn't matter who hides behind the manipulator's mask: secret government, banking syndicate, crypto exchange, or a Tokyo whale.
What is important is the fact that the crypto currencies were not destroyed, they didn't drop to zero, and the market didn't die, although, believe me, they could if they wanted to.
And this means that someone really needs crypto currencies!
I am sure that on the eve of the final sales, when Nobuaki has than half of the current sum, the pressure on the market will decrease and the mass of investors realizing that the main threat is behind will enter the crypto currency.
ETHBTC Technical Analysis
So, in order to update the current scenario, we will do a panoramic analysis of the market.
In the monthly ETHBTC chart above, we see that there are no major changes compared to the previous forecast. The only fact that should be noted is the growing volume on the last candlestick. Given that the candlestick itself is relatively small, we can conclude that the market encountered strong resistance to the fall, which is the first sign of the approaching bottom.
In the weekly ETHBTC chart above, we see that the current week did not start so well, however, the MACD indicators and the RSI Stochastic show a rounding. RSI, as always, is a bit ahead and has already shown a bullish crossing. However, this picture does not promise any growth at all. In order to understand the true state of affairs, let's go even lower.
In the daily ETHBTCchart above, we see a much more bearish picture. The price chart itself is rounded down, followed by the MACD indicators and the RSI stochastic. Together, these indicators give a signal to sell.
The non-standard ETHBTC charts tell us that the ticker is near a strong support level, however, the signals of the indicators do not give unambiguous signals to buy Ethereum, but there is a risk of breakthrough of this line and exit below.
We see that Renko and the linear breakout graph have already overcome the level of support, and the tic-tac-toe did not even think to give a signal to buy.
Perhaps the most ambiguous was the Kagi chart, however, we must give it credit as it shows the direction of the trend very accurately and following this picture, ETHBTC is still in the bearish market.
For comparison, let's look at the four-hour Japanese candlestick chart. In the chart, we see that the ticker has already broken the trend line and intends to go down. A warning signal to the fall was bearish divergence (marked with blue stripes). The nearest support level for bulls is at 0.031 ETH (green line)
Updating the ETHBTC scenario
We can conclude that with a high degree of probability, the price of Ethereum will not fall much below current values. The movement for the next few days will be limited to the corridor from 0.031 to 0.038.
The news about the sale of the Bitcoins has already played out the decline and the next one will not be out soon, therefore, the market will have the opportunity to roll back.
I am confident that until the futures close on September 28, the manipulator will try to push bitcoin a little, so I do not rule out testing of the mark at 0.031 BTC in the near future.
What will happen after the 28th day is unknown, however, the coincidence of this date and the Fibonacci circle is not accidental and with a high probability, the very next day we can see an influx of optimism and movement upward, with a minimum aim at the upper limits of the channel around 0.038 BTC.
This is my scenario for the ETHBTC. We will continue to follow the Ethereum rate and keep a hand on the pulse of the crypto currency market. I hope my forecast was useful!
Good luck and good profits!
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Price chart of ETHBTC in real time mode
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