ETHUSD analytics and the updated Ethereum forecast. Is ETH worth buying? Where will the most popular altcoin stop falling down?
In this post I applied the following tools: fundamental analysis, all-round market view, market balance level, volume profile, graphic analysis, trendline analysis, Renko, Kagi, Tic-Tac-Toe, Line Break charts.
Today, I’d like to dwell upon the second most popular cryptocurrency, Ethereum, and offer an updated ETHUSD trading scenario.
First, let’s have a look at my previous Ethereum forecast and see, how accurately it matches to the ETH actual price moves.
(ETHUSD forecast, dated 07.09.2018)
(ETHUSD actual situation on 18.09.2018)
As it is clear from the charts above, in general, the trading scenario coincides with the ETH major moves, the price direction was suggested correctly.
If you look closely, you’ll see that the support zone has turned out to be weaker, than I suggested. The ETHUSD ticker broke it through at once, without consolidating before, unlike I had expected.
Now the ticker is close to the top border of the bearish channel. The main objective of my today’s Ethereum price prediction is to find out, whether it is going to move inside the bearish channel, or it will leave it and start trading in the broadening sideways trend.
To do it, I suggest starting traditionally with Ethereum fundamental analysis.
ETHUSD fundamental analysis
The Ethereum fundamental situation is still rather difficult. I have already mentioned the ETH major drivers in my previous forecasts, so I won’t go to deep into detail today; I’ll just remind you the key points.
- Withdrawal of funds from the cryptocurrency. It is not only Ethereum problem. It influences all altcoins. At present, the funds are being steadily converted from the cryptocurrency assets into the fiat; and Ethereum is affected the most, as the most popular altcoin.
- Selling the funds, raised for ICO. Ethereum, as the pioneer of smart contracts, is the main ICO platform. Now, amid the general money withdrawal from the cryptocurrencies and the price drop, ICO startups have to hedge against the risks and withdraw the raised funds from the cryptocurrency, and so, increase the pressure on the Ethereum rate.
- Ethereum mining is below-cost. Those miners, who haven’t found a free socket, Ethereum mining becomes loss-making; so, they have to move to other coins. The mass exodus of miners from the Ethereum network endangers the network decentralization and stability. Moreover, the crowd of disappointed make up a negative news background in the crypto community, making the Ethereum situation even worse.
- The upcoming Constantinople hardfork. Many Ethereum fans have high expectations from the network upgrading, as it is suggested to eliminate many existing problems and drive the ETH closer to POS-consensus. In theory, the upgraded network should support the demand for Ethereum and increase its deficit in the market; however, the handwork launch is constantly put off. They used to talk about the exact timelines, since October 30 trough November 2; now, it is clear that the fork will be postponed even more, and it won’t happen before December.
Finally, it is clear that there are rather many negative factors around Ethereum, according to fundamental analysis. Let’s see what technical analysis will show.
ETHUSD technical analysis
As usual, I’ll start from ETHUSD monthly chart. It clear in the chart above that the last monthly candlestick has broken through the low of November at 198 USD. Although it is much time till September ends, trading volume this month has already exceeded the previous one; it means growing activity of both buyers and sellers at the current levels.
In the ETHUSD weekly price chart, you see that most of trading volume was featured last week, when many buyers were buying out the large amount of the dumped ETH, which dropped Ethereum price down to 167 USD. The buyers activity is especially clear in the volume profile. The long, prominent yellow and blue spike shows how pending orders were working out at about 200 USD. Unfortunately, this buyout was pressed very soon, and the ETHUSD ticker continued going down.
In addition, there aren’t any reversal signs, even indirect ones. MACD is fully in the red zone, and the RSI stochastic can’t exit the oversold zone.
In ETHUSD daily chart, it is clear that the first bullish convergence has been complete. However, the RSI stochastic is indicating a reversal near the overbought zone; and MACD is painting a rounding by its moving averages.
The last daily candlestick, supported by high volume, has painted black; it suggests strong sellers.
Collectively this suggests the Ethereum price should go deeper and the second convergence is likely to emerge.
I have noted that in the cryptocurrency charts, the oscillators’ convergences and divergences have been drawn in series, appearing in clusters of two or three signals for a long time. Therefore, when the first signs of divergence appear, you must be extremely careful, and you shouldn’t take the final decision in haste.
The ETHUSD 12H chart above indicates almost the same situation as the daily Ethereum price chart, only being less late. There, MACD is entering the red zone, and the ETHUSD ticker is going down to the bearish channel. In general, it suggests ETH should go down and touch the nearest support level at 141 USD.
I go on my big experiment with unusual charts; so, let’s see what is indicated in Renko, Kagi, Tic-Tac-Toe and Line Break chart.
As it is clear above, all the charts are in the red zone, indicating the general pessimism in the Ethereum market. First of all, it is clear from the bearish meeting of the moving averages on the charts.
MACD moving averages in all charts, but for the Tic-Tac-Toe, indicate the sideways trend. The Tic-Tac-Toe chart (in the top right corner) is indicating a completely bearish situation; both by the chart and MACD. Moreover, this chart also indicates the bearish channel, where Ethereum is trading.
Updated Ethereum price forecast and ETHUSD trading scenario:
Based on the negative background, according to Ethereum fundamental analysis, and strong sellers in the Ethereum market, I still suggest the main ETHUSD scenario with the target at 140 USD -130 USD. I don’t think ETH will go deeper, as the zone, indicated above, consists of multiple key levels of the monthly timeframe, and so, it is a very strong support. In addition, there is a series of bullish convergences in ETHUSD 4H chart. It is clear from Ethereum price chart above that two convergences have been already complete, and the third one would be a good bullish signal. Besides, this scenario fits in the general concept the ETH movement, where I expect the bullish retracement in the period of late September – early October.
A less likely scenario, though still probable, suggests that the long sideways trend should develop within a rather narrow channel between 190 USD-230 USD. We shall see whether the scenario will develop or will be canceled today, when it becomes clear if the Ethereum price is going down below the ascending line inside the bearish channel or the fight with sellers will go on.
Go on following the Ethereum price and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my ETH price predictions are useful for you!
I wish you good luck and good profits!
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Price chart of ETHUSD in real time mode
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