ETHUSD analytics and the updated Ethereum forecast. Is ETH worth buying? Where will the price for the most popular altcoin will go?
In this post I applied the following tools: fundamental analysis, all-round market view, market balance level, volume profile, graphic analysis, trendline analysis, Kagi chart, Tic-Tac-Toe chart.
Today I’ll analyze Ethereum prospects in the ETHUSD pair.
First, let’s compare the last Ethereum to dollar forecast with the current situation.
(ETHUSD previous forecast, dated 03.10.2018)
(current ETHUSD situation on 25.10.2018)
As it is clear from the comparison of the two ETHUSD price charts above, even despite the well-known fake Bitcoin pump, the ETHUSD rate has stuck in the green channel between 200-222. Ethereum cryptocurrency is not that responsive because almost all cryptocurrencies currently correlate with the market and its general sentiment that is now quite negative and suggest declining trading volume on the concurrency exchanges and withdrawing the assets from the crypto market.
Ethereum fundamental analysis
Based on fundamental factors, Ethereum to dollar price analysis doesn’t benefit from the postponing of Constantinople hardfork until early 2018. In general, I wouldn’t say I have been surprised. I suggested that the hardfork should be delayed in my previous articles, devoted to Ethereum. The delay of hardfork until the next year is even better for its middle-term outlook as its postponing every month only makes the traders more irritated and adds negative background to the market.
Perhaps, one of the key factors, preventing the entire crypto market from a crash, is the expected appearance of Baktt trading platform soon, which will be operating first of all for institutional investors and offer PHYSICALLY DELIVERED daily future contracts on cryptocurrency.
Due to this news, many have forgotten the case with ETF, which everybody had been waiting for so long. Nevertheless, you shouldn't forget that the exchange is still to be licensed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Despite such uncertainty, the launch is planned on December 12, which is only increasing the tension.
In general, the situation with this exchange seems to be another means of manipulation. The planned launch of this crypto platform was discussed in May, 2018, but it didn’t prevent the Bitcoin from going down to 6000 USD, from 10 000 USD.
I don’t deny that the platform launch is a matter of time, but there is obvious manipulating by means of news and facts about this platform.
In addition, the effect of the exchange launch is rather over-weighed. In fact, it is not a big problem for an institution to buy Bitcoin. There are now quite many instruments, providing buying and selling cryptocurrencies; and everybody, who wanted, has already done it. The majority stays away from the crypto market rather because there isn’t well regulation base and because cryptocurrencies have a general status of an extremely risky asset.
In my previous forecast for ETHBTC, I already wrote about certain cycles that repeat in the chart history.
According to this theory, each new growth cycle for Ethereum starts in the period from December until the first two months of the next year. Base on this idea, as soon as the new growth cycle of ETH to BTC, Ethereum should start increasing to the USD. To find out, how this assumption corresponds to the Ethereum ETHUSD technical analysis and how it fits into the general trend of the crypto market, I’ll go on with ETHUSD technical analysis.
ETHUSD technical analysis
The month will end soon, and, though the monthly candlestick hasn’t closed yet, I can conclude that the bullish hammer hasn’t worked out. Unfortunately, there has been no reversal signal, and the situation will hardly change until the end of the month. Ideally, to send a bullish signal the ticker should consolidate above level 302 USD. As it is clear from the ETHUSD price chart above, Ethereum is now close to 204 USD. Of course, the distance of some 100 USD is not so long for the Ethereum rate. Let’s see if it really so.
In the weekly ETHUSD price chart, you see that all oscillators indicate weakness. MACD, though it is green, is still below zero level; the angle of the indicator movement suggested a long sideways trend, rather than real trend reversal.
RSI stochastic sends similar signals. It is moving close to the green oversold zone and is not going to rebound.
Finally, let’s look at the Average True Range (ATR) indicator in the weekly chart. It is slowly but steadily going down to the growth base that started in mid-November, 2018. If ATR remains the same trend, the target should be reached in mid-December already.
It in no way means that the digital currency should instantly rise in price from this level; but such situation can become a foothold for the volatility increase and driver for the market that may finally reverse the Ethereum price trend.
In the ETHUSD 1D chart, it is clear that the current consolidation looks like a triangle, where the ticker has closely approached the acute angle. Oscillators indicate the passivity in the market. The price chart is going down, and, taking account that currently the ticker is below the weekly Keltner channel’s central line, sellers are dominating in the market, suppressing the bulls.
Taking into account the bearish market sentiment and completely puzzling behaviour of buyers in the ETHUSD market, the ticker is likely to exit the triangle with a penetration down to 161 USD. This idea is based rather on the general market trend, as currently all indicators in hourly charts don’t suggest anything clear, indicating flat and uncertainty. Based on the assumption that the market is moving along the path of least resistance, the down-move looks far more accessible.
It is especially clear in the Kagi chart above. There are multiple open resistance levels from above. In addition, from below, there are only two open support levels; which proves the market sentiment and suggests that buyers are weak and it is easier to drive the price down in this situation.
In the Tic-Tac-Toe chart above, there is emerging a symmetric triangle pattern. If the suggested scenario with the exit down to 161 USD works out, there pattern in the chart will be broken through with drawdown equal to the pattern base, as low as 80 USD. It is hard to believe in such a drop now, but you still should take it into consideration, as the worst scenario.
Updated Ethereum scenario: up-to-date ETHUSD price forecast
Predicting the price when the market is in the sideways trend always looks like fortune-telling. It is far easier to analyze the market when the price is trending, as in this case, it is enough to identify the key levels to enter and exit a trade, following the general trend.
Unfortunately, there isn’t any clear trend, so I have to apply the data that are available. So, as for the Ethereum price forecast in the ETHUSD pair, the global trend is bearish, and nothing has fundamentally changed here. Locally, the market is in consolidation that looks like a symmetric triangle. According to volatility indicators and graphic analysis, the flat is ready for a momentum, which, following the path of least resistance and the general global trend, is likely to be downward. The target of the assumed momentum is at about 170 USD, whereat the ticker is likely to be consolidated again to accumulate force for the next move. These moves will hardly result in a trend, and the ETHUSD is likely to be trading in the range of 170-240 till the end of 2018.
Go on following the Ethereum price and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my ETH price predictions are useful for you!
I wish you good luck and good profits!
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Price chart of ETHUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.