Despite the weakness of euro-zone economy and the ECB dovish rhetoric, bulls managed to draw EUR/USD back above 1.13

What could be worse than discouraging economic data? Mixed data! The US dollar quite dramatically responded to a decline in industrial production as all the other indicators related to the sector were sending positive signals. The same was the case with retail sales and consume expenditure. The reason could be found in the government shutdown, but the fact is that investors are preparing for a decline in the US growth and expect worse statistics in the near future. It is not that pleasant news for the greenback, which is also pressed down by the de-escalation of the US-China trade conflict.

It would seem that everything began so well for the EUR/USD bears! Benoit Coeure said that they were discussing to resume LTRO, but the ECB must be confident that the program serves the purposes of the monetary policy. The maturity dates of the previous rounds of long term refinancing worth €720 billion are approaching and the banks warn that they will have to look for alternative sources of funding. This will result in higher rates of credit markets, that is, to tighter financial conditions, unwelcome to euro area.

Dynamics of the ECB balance sheet

Source: Bloomberg

Furthermore, the governor of the Bank of France Francois Villeroy de Galhau noted that the Governing Council may change its outlook for the interest rate unless there are any proofs that the decline in GDP growth is temporary. The ECB members’ dovish rhetoric sent the EUR/USD rate to the three-month low, but the bulls manage to fight back. When both the ECB and the Fed are willing at least to retain the former monetary policies, the major currency pair is affected by other factors. First of all it is about trade wars. According to Donald Trump, the US-China trade negotiations reach a great progress.

The parties agreed to sign a memorandum and outlined the concessions, they are willing to make to each other. In theory, the boosting of the US exports to China is positive for global economy. To consume it, China will have to resort to a significant fiscal and monetary stimulus. Another matter is whether the US current production capacity will allow it to expand the export so much that it will balance foreign trade.

But still, the progress in trade talks improved global risk appetite and pushed the EUR/USD rate up. It would seem that everything was going well for the bulls, but Donald Trump received the report on national security on February 17. The information remains unveiled, but it may unleash steep tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, provoking a new round of trade wars.

US car imports

   

Source: Bloomberg

The progress in US-China trade relations stabilized the EUR/USD around the bottom of consolidation range of 1.1265-1.1485, and the bulls are going to hold it within the range.


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Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

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