Analysis of Litecoin trend and the most likely scenario for the LTC price movements in the near future.
In this post I applied the following tools: fundamental analysis, all-round market view, volume profile, indicators, trendline analysis, Renko and Line Break charts.
I haven’t written anything about Litecoin and, in particular, how it is trading to the US dollar, for ages. Today, I’ll try to catch up and offer you my LTCUSD forecast.
As you see in the comparative chart above, Litecoin, most of its time, was closely correlated to Bitcoin; but it has been performing far worse than the old chap since early 2018.
What is the reason for LTC growing so weak?
First of all, you must remember that Litecoin cryptocurrency is classed with other altcoins, and so, it features the same pressure, put by Bitcoin on all altcoins, when it goes up and down in the bearish market.
But it is not the most important. The key factor in the Litecoin development became Charlie Lee’s announcement that he had sold off all his LTC 8 months ago. Unfortunately, Charlie has forgotten to provide any evidence, therefore, nobody knows, how much he really sold, and how much he still holds.
But the fact is that Charlie knew the coin price peak surprisingly accurately. A chance? I don’t think so.
But I’m sure, even trying to regain his good name, Charlie made a strategic blunder. The matter is that, behind each coin, there is a big team of developers, promoters, business angels and volunteers. There is even an establishment for Litecoin, called Litecoin Foundation.
Having denied his influence on the Litecoin price, Charlie has made it clear that he is not going to sell the coin, during LTC price increase; neither will he support it during its fall.
But, taking into account that Litecoin Foundation is funded in LTC, this statement sounds irresponsible, to say the least, towards his team that is one of the Litecoin main stakeholders and the driver of the altcoin development.
To make it clearer, just imagine a situation, when Donald Trump declares to the whole world, “I sold off all my dollars...” It can’t be even imagined! Each country leader tries to support the liquidity of the local currency.
Charlie Lee is, in fact, the leader of his virtual country and, whether he wants it or not, but he will always be responsible for the rate of the currency, he, himself, created.
Is it by chance or not, but immediately after Charlie’s announcement, the Litecoin GitHub activity and development started to decline very fast (see the chart below).
For you to compare, there is Bitcoin GitHub activity and development during the same period.
Do you see the difference?
If you read Charlie Lee’s tweets, you will also find no activity in Litecoin development or its price there. All the news is about new wallets that are to support Litecoin and ads of Litecoin Summit, which will start on September 14.
I perfectly remember the times, when Litecoin, like a crazy rocket, was flying 100% up during just a week; I remember how Charlie was, like a child, happy with the LTC price growth and how he was sharing his emotions on his twitter. Everybody loved him so much because of that openness, transparency and publicity! But now, when Litecoin is facing the hard times and its price is sliding down, why doesn’t Charlie express any sympathy or support? Why isn’t he saying a word of support to Litecoin holders, who trusted him and his product?!
Litecoin used to be called the crypto silver and presented and the second most important cryptocurrency asset; but now, it has been down to already the seventh position, and won’t necessarily stop there.
To fix the things, Charlie Lee must obviously return and take the control back into his own hands. The Litecoin situation will improve only provided his direct support. And to do it, he doesn’t even have to buy anything, he just needs to be the real leader of his crypto country and take the responsibility for its development.
I hope, Charlie will hear me and will call out loud at the summit, “Let’s make Litecoin great again!”
And by far, as long as Charlie ignores the problem, LTC/USD technical analysis suggests nothing good.
In the LTCUSD monthly chart, it is clear that the August candlestick has steadily consolidated below the LTCUSD key level at 80 USD.
Now, the ticker is in the bottom half of Keltner channel, and so, in theory, it may go down to its bottom border at 21.5 USD.
It has a few key levels on its way; the first one is at 49 USD (the low of November, 2017), and the second one is at 32 USD (the low of September, 2017).
You see in the weekly LTCUSD chart above that the strong bearish trend has been developing since May, without any tries to reverse. Oscillators have not been rising for a long time, staying in the oversold zone, which, unfortunately, doesn’t prevent the altcoin form falling down.
In the LTC online chart, it is clear that, since early 2018, after Charlie’s announcement, Litecoin trading volume has been substantially down. The big traders obviously left the market, leaving LTC to be bought by minor speculators.
In the Litecoin daily chart above, you see that MACD oscillator indicates a bullish convergence, inspiring a subtle hope for a potential reversal; however, the ticker has already closely approached the key support level and it hasn’t aroused any increase in buyers’ interest; it can suggest only one thing, the ticker is going to fall deeper in the future.
In the four-hour Line Break chart, you see that the July pattern repeats. Now, the LTCUSD ticker is finishing drawing the green bar, giving the bulls an opportunity to draw the price a little up; but there is a chance that they will have sufficient power for a short period of time, and, unless large buyers support it, the ticker is going test its lows.
Renko chart is especially definite with this regard.
You see, both the chart itself with the moving averages and MACD oscillator suggest the downtrend should go on.
You see in the LTCUSD chart above that Litecoin has been trading in the strong bearish trend since early 2018.
Now, the ticker is close to the channel border, and suggests no clear signs of reversal.
To be honest, I don’t yet believe in this scenario myself, but all signs point to Litecoin price continuous falling down.
LTCUSD ticker is likely to retrace up to 70 USD, but it won’t be enough support to draw it higher, and the ticker will go down to test the support level at 49 USD. Its breakout will be a huge strategic defeat for bulls. There won’t be any more levels that can hold it stable. The next stop will be at 32 USD. I can’t yet say if Litecoin will hit the bottom at 21.5; but the bearish cycle points to the final stop there.
The scenario may seem too pessimistic, but when Litecoin was 120 USD, it was also hard to believe that it would hit 50 USD just in a month.
Unfortunately, I don’t see any fundamental support from the market makers. Nobody seems to be able to save Litecoin from the bearish trend, but for a single man.
That is my LTCUSD trading scenario. Go on following the rate and staying informed. I wish my Litecoin price predictions are useful for you!
I wish you good luck and good profits!
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