Oil sellers kept short-term downtrend
Expect a medium-term fall of oil quotes with the aim of updating July’s lows and reaching Target Zone 3 [63.80 – 63.46].
The short-term trend remained descending once the key resistance IZ [68.21 – 68.03] was tested. On Friday, there was formed a pattern according to which I would recommend holding WTI sales till Target Zone [66.46 – 66.11].
If the situation follows an alternative scenario, we will see a closure above IZ. In this case, we’ll be looking for oil purchases till upper zone [70.10 – 69.76] on the next trading day.
WTI Trading decisions for today:
Sell/hold sales according to the pattern from Intermediary Zone [68.21 – 68.03]. TakeProfit: Target Zone [66.46 – 66.11]. StopLoss: 68.517.
Last week, gold updated July’s lows and retested Target Zone 5 [1210.2 – 1207.1]. There is no session closure below this zone, so the methodology doesn’t allow us to speak of further falls.
It’s worth rebuilding the key resistance. It moved to the levels [1238.6 – 1235.5]. The best decision for medium-term work would be waiting for a test of the resistnce and looking for reversal patterns.
The local short-term trend is descending. The key trend resistance [1221.6 – 1220.0] was tested last Friday. For today, I recommend waiting until a reversal pattern has been formed, and then selling. If the “1-2-3” model forms, sell XAUUSD with a target at [1204.2 – 1201.1].
Alternative scenario: Buy gold until the upper TZ [1238.6 – 1235.5]. But first, buyers will need to break the resistance level.
XAUUSD Trading decisions for today:
Sell according to the pattern from Intermediary Zone [1221.6 – 1220.0]. TakeProfit: Target Zone [1204.2 – 1201.1]. StopLoss: According to pattern rules
A medium-term downtrend applies to silver. We see a fall of quotes whose probable target is a retest of Target Zone 3 [15.11 – 15.03]. The trend resistance near which profitable SELL prices are located, is at [15.92 – 15.85].
Let’s analyse the current situation on a smaller time frame. Here we see that the short-term uptrend remains despite all attempts to break Intermediary Zone [15.26 – 15.22]. There’s no closure below that zone, which means we still should prioritize buying.
For buying, we need a pattern that was formed on Friday. Today, I recommend opening long trades in silver from 50% Fibonacci retracement (see the picture) with a stop loss placed behind Friday’s low. The target is in the Target Zone [15.92 – 15.85].
XAGUSD Trading decisions for today:
Buy according to the pattern from Intermediary Zone [15.26 – 15.22]. TakeProfit: 15.61, Target Zone [15.92 – 15.85]. StopLoss: 15.19.
IZ - Intermediary Zone - Reflects changes in priority directions of price movements
TZ - Target Zone - The zone which will be reached with a 75% chance once IZ has been broken through.
GZ - Gold Zone - The zone in a medium-term impetus
All the zones are calculated based on a daily average movement and margin requirements of the futures market.
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Price chart of USCrude in real time mode
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