Oil sellers kept short-term downtrend


Expect a medium-term fall of oil quotes with the aim of updating July’s lows and reaching Target Zone 3 [63.80 – 63.46].

The short-term trend remained descending once the key resistance IZ [68.21 – 68.03] was tested. On Friday, there was formed a pattern according to which I would recommend holding WTI sales till Target Zone [66.46 – 66.11].

If the situation follows an alternative scenario, we will see a closure above IZ. In this case, we’ll be looking for oil purchases till upper zone [70.10 – 69.76] on the next trading day.


WTI  Trading decisions for today:  

Sell/hold sales according to the pattern from Intermediary Zone [68.21 – 68.03]. TakeProfit: Target Zone [66.46 – 66.11]. StopLoss: 68.517.


Last week, gold updated July’s lows and retested Target Zone 5 [1210.2 – 1207.1]. There is no session closure below this zone, so the methodology doesn’t allow us to speak of further falls.

It’s worth rebuilding the key resistance. It moved to the levels  [1238.6 – 1235.5]. The best decision for medium-term work would be waiting for a test of the resistnce and looking for reversal patterns.

The local short-term trend is descending. The key trend resistance [1221.6 – 1220.0] was tested last Friday. For today, I recommend waiting until a reversal pattern has been formed, and then selling. If the “1-2-3” model forms, sell  XAUUSD with a target at [1204.2 – 1201.1].

Alternative scenario: Buy gold until the upper TZ [1238.6 – 1235.5]. But first, buyers will need to break the resistance level.


XAUUSD Trading decisions for today: 

Sell according to the pattern from Intermediary Zone [1221.6 – 1220.0]. TakeProfit: Target Zone [1204.2 – 1201.1]. StopLoss: According to pattern rules


A medium-term downtrend applies to silver. We see a fall of quotes whose probable target is a retest of Target Zone 3 [15.11 – 15.03]. The trend resistance near which profitable SELL prices are located, is at [15.92 – 15.85].

Let’s analyse the current situation on a smaller time frame. Here we see that the short-term uptrend remains despite all attempts to break  Intermediary Zone [15.26 – 15.22]. There’s no closure below that zone, which means we still should prioritize buying.

For buying, we need a pattern that was formed on Friday. Today, I recommend opening long trades in silver from 50% Fibonacci retracement (see the picture) with a stop loss placed behind Friday’s low. The target is in the Target Zone [15.92 – 15.85].


XAGUSD Trading decisions for today:  

Buy according to the pattern from Intermediary Zone [15.26 – 15.22]. TakeProfit: 15.61, Target Zone [15.92 – 15.85]. StopLoss: 15.19.

IZ - Intermediary Zone -  Reflects changes in priority directions of price movements 

TZ - Target Zone -  The zone which will be reached with a 75% chance once IZ has been broken through. 

GZ - Gold Zone -  The zone in a medium-term impetus 

All the zones are calculated based on a daily average movement and margin requirements of the futures market.

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Price chart of USCrude in real time mode

Analysis for oil, gold and silver for 06.08.2018

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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