Monero analysis in the XMRBTC pair

Updated middle-term Monero price forecast. Key levels to trade XMRBTC and major prospects of Monero future

Dear friends,

Today, couldn’t decide what cryptocurrency I would analyze, but then, I remembered about Monero. Its protocol must have been updated a long time ago. Its new upgrades are named “bulletproofs”.

The name sounds promising. I offer to find out how much Monero has been actually improved and what it is promising in future.

I usually start analyzing XMRUSD with comparison the previous scenario for the coin and the current market situation. But now, it makes no sense, as I published my last analysis for the XMRBTC pair as early as on July 20. It stands to reason, this scenario is of no use now, and I need to analyze the Monero charts from the very beginning and examine all the XMRBTC timeframes.

But first, I offer my Monero fundamental analysis

Monero fundamental analysis

As I’ve already written, the Monero network was altered due to the Bulletproofs hardfork. It occurred on October 18, 2018 and it made a substantial modification in the blockchain.

The transactions proof algorithm has been radically changed, that is the process that guarantees that the money, you transfer, is not false or duplicated, that it is real Monero, and not a fake.

Earlier, the process of a transaction proof under the conditions of privacy was based on the Ring Confidential Transaction algorithm RingCT. This technology was replaced by the Bulletproofs technology. I won’t go into detail of its technical features, you can learn more in the scientific paper by the colleagues from University College London, Stanford University и Blockstream here on 45 pages.

For the most impatient, I’ll outline its main distinguishing feature. It is the scalability of the verification process that was modified from a linear to a logarithmic one. It increased the process proof scalability by 80%, and so, cut the proofs costs by the same 80%; moreover, the weight of confidential transactions became 80% less.

If it is presented in figures, the weight of an input transaction was 7 kB before the upgrade, and it is 2 kB, after it. An output transaction was 13 kB, and now, it is 2.5 kB.

As a result, the Monero blockchain capacity increased and the transaction cost decreased. All of this allows downsizing the Monero nods, so that they will be more numerous and the network will be even safer and more protected against attacks.

The technology itself has been tested since January, 2018. During this period, they have identified all the error and provided the network stable work, according to the upgrade. So, I have no reason to suggest the network should fail because of the technology itself; however, this risk must be taken into consideration when you are taking your investment decision.

Despite the upgrades, Monero generally looks weaker than Bitcoin, according to the trading history. You see that, in mid-August, the Monero ticker broke through the lows, while the Bitcoin was not that responsive and was trading above its last support level.

First of all, this pessimism can be explained by the negative attitude towards Monero from officials and regulators, as one of the leading privacy-based altcoins. In summer, many South Korean and Japanese exchanges stopped trading the Monero altcoin.

Therefore, investors’ fundamental attitude to Monero is not clear. On the one hand, it is growing popular among hackers and illegal traders; on the other hand, its innovations can be interesting for common users and investors.

Among the leading countries, interested in Monero, Google search displays, first of all, Baltic countries, Balkan Peninsula, China and Venezuela. These countries may have different reasons for the Monero popularity, but, in general, it is a huge community that supports the demand for the coin.

XMRBTC technical analysis

Today is the 1st of November, and so, you can see a complete, closed candlestick in the XMRUSD monthly chart. As it is clear from the chart above, the body of this candle is black and completely covers the previous, white, candlestick. In addition, the candlestick’s shadows in October don’t go beyond the previous candlestick borders; which is basically not bad, as it suggests the development of consolidation, rather than the bullish trend. In this chart, I marked a few important levels; they are the point of control in the volume profile – the red line at 0.017368 BTC; the lows for the last three months – orange lines; and the highs -green lines; in addition, there is the Keltner channel’s center level at 0.0185 BTC.

In the Monero weekly chart above, you see that the ticker has hit the support level of the previous monthly low at 0.0157 and is facing the resistance form above, at the point of control at 0.017368 BTC. Besides, the chart is in the bottom part of the weekly Keltner channel, so, I assume a short rebound up to its center at 0.0179 BTC.

Oscillators also suggest some positive, and indicate a possible upward correction.

In the daily XMRUSD price chart, there is the local point of control at 0.016225 BTC. The Monero price to the U.S. dollar hasn’t yet consolidated above it. From above, the movement is set back by the similar, monthly level, which outlines the range of the future price moves.

MACD is showing bullish divergence that supports the idea of growth. RSI stochastic is also pointing upwards.

In the Monero 12-hour chart, the consolidation looks like a triangle, where the ticker is close to the acute angle borders. According to RSI stochastic, the ticker may go down inside the pattern, but not lower. Form below, the drop is stopped by a series of support levels, market by the lows of the last two months.

The Kagi chart basically supports the situation, described above. There are multiple waist levels, which make up a single support zone from 0.0159 down to 0.0155 BTC. Form above, there are less obstacles, so, the bulls can quite easily go up.

The Tic-Tac-Toe chart displays a more global situation. You see a descending trendline that will make a resistance at about 0.017 BTC. However, if it is broken through, the ticker may go higher inside the wide channel, up to 0.019 BTC.

Updated XMRBTC price forecast and Monero trading scenario

Summing up all the above, Monero price might be slightly corrected down inside the triangle within the next 24 hours; however, the pattern has got a strong support from below, which won’t let the ticker drop deeper. Provided there is general calm in the market, the most likely scenario suggests that the ticker should go outside the pattern with short stops at 0.0168 BTC and 0.0173 BTC. The local bullish trend could develop up to the monthly Keltner channel’s center line at about 0.0185 BTC. This price increase basically fits in the general consolidation in the cryptocurrency market and will be within the range of the previous month’s swings.

That is my XMRBTC trading scenario for the next few weeks. Go on following the Monero price and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my crypto forecasts are useful for you!

I wish you good luck and good profits!

PS. If you agree with the forecast, write “+” in the comments; if you don’t agree, put “-”. If you liked the post, just write thank you, and don’t forget to share the post. It is easy for you and I will be very pleased :)

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The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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