Ripple analysis in the XRPUSD pair
Updated middle-term Ripple price forecast. Key levels to trade XRPBTC and major prospects of Ripple future
I haven’t written anything about the Ripple price analysis for a long time; but whatever my opinion about it is, this cryptocurrency is the third largest one by market cap; and this fact just can’t be ignored. So, today, I’d like to revise Ripple trading scenario and offer my analysis for the XRPUSD pair
I wrote my last Ripple price forecast as early as on September 21. Currently, more than a month later, the fuss around this digital asset has calmed down a little. For my new analysis, I suggest remembering what was happening at that time.
At that time, just ahead my previous forecast, Sagar Sarbhai, the head of Ripple Labs Inc regulatory relations for Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, stated that he believed xRipple final launch to occur about “the next one month or so”. It is suggested to serve as a payment provider between the banks and all its partners.
Ripple price surged amid that information
(XRPUSD forecast, dated21.09.2018)
There, I suggested the Ripple price would rise up 0.79 USD and then it would return to the borders of the traded channel at 0.37 USD. Many didn’t agree with such a deep drawdown and projected the Ripple continuous growth.
(XRPUSD current state as of 02.11.2018)
Finally, you see that in the current Ripple chart, its price reached the marked level quite accurately; however, to be fair, I must admit, it has reached them much earlier than I planned. Nevertheless, I think the scenario to have worked out by 100%.
Ripple fundamental analysis
Therefore, I need to completely update the forecast and suggest a new scenario to trade XRPUSD. So, I’ll start with fundamental analysis, as usual. As for the Ripple blockchain itself, there have been no changes; and the cryptocurrency, despite all the administration’s effort, hasn’t been recognized as decentralized by the community.
On the other hand, it’s been over a month, and, according to the timelines, outlined by Sagar Sarbhai, there should have already occurred a cryptocurrency revolution and Ripple should have become the direct rival for SWIFT.
Time goes fast, and everybody a kind of “forgot” about this revolutionary technology. But crypto traders remember and are looking forward to the outcomes. The Ripple official Twitter, there is no official statement about the product launch.
However, there has been published an article, where the Ripple Chief Market Strategist Cory Johnson describes how Ripple is going to outperform Bitcoin. He is just following Roger Ver’s example, claiming Ripple to be Bitcoin!
He says, “And really, the technology for XRP is like Bitcoin two dot oh. It’s Bitcoin, but it’s faster. It’s Bitcoin, but it doesn’t use tons of power. It’s Bitcoin, but it’s not controlled by Chinese miners. But fundamentally, it is a blockchain digital asset that is used principally for the movement of value.”
I won’t comment his words, but remember the post, Cory takes. Basically, his goal is to support the demand for Ripple, that is, to sell it. He is a sure expert in his business. In the situation, when the liquidity outflows from altcoins to Bitcoin, it is rather wise to discuss that, in fact, “XRP is like Bitcoin”. After all, someone may believed and buy Ripple, rather than Bitcoin :)
As it is clear from the chart above, Ripple trend doesn’t strongly correspond to the Bitcoin and often performs worse than the market. There are two most interesting deviations from the cryptocurrency market. The first, started in late September, is associated with the soon launch of xRapid. However, there was a strong dump next and the Ripple was much lower than the market. It is strange that the dump wasn’t accompanied by any news about the cryptocurrency; so, it looks like a deliberate dump by manipulators. As know, the biggest trader and holder of Ripple are the Ripple current administration and its former members.
Therefore, I suspect that there will be fake positive news soon, just for the administration to sell their assets. As it is clear from the chart, trade volumes are just tiny; and any, even not the biggest, trades will affect the XRPUSD rate. So manipulators desperately need another pump. I’m sure Cory is already working on this.
XRPUSD technical analysis
Because of a relatively short Ripple trading history, there neither oscillators’ signals, nor Keltner channels (see the chart above). But I can mark the point of control, indicated by volume profile, at 0.24 USD (red line), and uncovered extremes of the last few months; the lows are marked with orange lines and the highs are marked with green beams. As for the candlestick analysis, the strong growth in September with good volumes wasn’t followed by buyers support in the next month. It was followed by a deep correction that covered more than a half of the rise. If I draw the trend line from the first rising candlestick, it will be clear that the new month has open on the opposite side of the uptrend. As the body and the shadows of the October candlestick didn’t exceeded the body and the shadows of the September’s one, the consolidation is likely to continue, and the ticker can be easily corrected down to the support levels of the previous months, at 0.376 USD and 0.25 USD.
As you see in the weekly XRPUSD chart above, trade volumes are going down and are extremely low now. In this environment, pump or dump can be organized even with a little stack. Based on the oscillators and the clues, suggested by fundamental analysis, there can really be a short-term surge up to the border of the previous month at 0.60 USD. Moreover, the ticker is moving along the point of control from the weekly volume profile and the Keltner channel’s center line; it means the short-term support at the current levels.
There is a local uptrend in the weekly XRPUSD chart, which is about to be broken. You see the ticker hasn’t been moving anywhere for a long time, which might suggest a soon momentum. In general, both MACD and RSI stochastic are pointing upwards, which supports the ticker’s possible rise. In the current situation, it means that there is likely to be a soon momentum, driving the Ripple price towards 0.6 USD.
Next, there should be 12H chart, but I won’t describe it, as there is nothing new here.
But the 12H Kagi chart suggests a completely different situation from that in the candlesticks chart. There is a clear series of uncovered waist levels close to the ticker level; the levels make up the resistance zone of 0.47 USD-0.49 USD. Besides, there is rather a week support zone of 0.40 USD-0.38 USD. So, the ticker is more likely to go down than to climb up.
The Tic-Tac-Toe chart above suggests the state of balance. The next step down will break the trend line and draw the ticker down. Based on the projection of the channel’s breadth, the Ripple price should go down to at least 0.38 USD, or to 0.30 USD at most. If there is an up-momentum, the ticker will face multiple resistance levels; but it still might go up to 0.57 USD.
Up-to-date XRPUSD trading scenario
Summing up all the above, the most likely Ripple price scenario suggests it should go on trading in the sideways trend in the zone of 0.47 USD – 0.42 USD. It might go up, but it is more likely to fall. Yes, there can be artificial pumps, designed to sell by the big traders; but the general trend is downward. At best, the consolidation will be just moved one level lower, at about 0.37 USD - 0.42 USD. A more negative scenario suggests a drop towards 0.25 USD -0.24 USD.
That is my XRPUSD trading scenario and the Ripple price forecast for the next few weeks. Go on following the Ripple price and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my crypto forecasts are useful for you!
I wish you good luck and good profits!
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Price chart of XRPUSD in real time mode
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