Antiglobalism strides across the New and the Old worlds
Divorces have become fashionable in Forex, it is going to be for long. Great Britain is breaking down its long marriage to the EU; the European central bank abandons QE; the USA threats to divorce Canada. Even if Washington says it to be just a little misunderstanding between the spouses, in fact, it looks like the betrayal of one of them. The most beloved one. Anyway, all marriages are like that: he had promised to get a star from the sky for her, but she got on his nerves sooner.
He has married, thought she would cook like the mother, but she boozes like the father. When the ECB was starting the story with quantitative easing program in 2015, it had the noblest intentions: reduce borrowing costs, speed up the inflation rate and economic expansion, devalue euro...Everything seemed to be going right. Until 2018, when GDP started slowing down. They right away started arguing for extending QE, and I felt really sorry for the regulator. I just wished to cry: “Take care! There are people everywhere, who know better what you should do!”
The central bank settled the situation with dignity and respect: it was saying like the prayer about a seasonable decline in the economy, affected by the bad weather, strikes, and a flu epidemic. And then, it has even suggested, through Peter Praet’s mouth, it would discuss quitting QE in 2018 at its meeting on June 14. Investors got hooked and rushed to the computer screens to press the BUY button for EUR/USD. Isn’t it too early? The suggestion may finally turn out to be just the market rumor. - Dad, may I sit in front of the computer? - Sure...you mustn’t only switch it on.
Looking back at Donald Trump’s inauguration in early 2017, I somehow remembered how Mary's family wanted to get her married: “We have to sell, and you’ll have problems.” The businessman started working really hard to cut its foreign trade, and his words “When you’re almost 800 Billion Dollars a year down on Trade, you can’t lose a Trade War!” is going to haunt the US partners in nightmares for a long time. By the way, something like that already happened in the 1990s, when Washington, unhappy with the deficit in foreign trade with Japan, imposed tariffs on car imports. Finally, Japan really sold fewer cars to the USA. But their cost became more at the same time, it cost the US consumers $5 bn more per year. The White House had better remember that story, if so, it would understand that any situation can be settled with a shame. How the USA is now exchanging threats of import tariffs with its fellow-opponents, looks like neighbors’ relationships. My neighbors have a power drill, and I have a piano. Repairs will end one day, but music will last forever!
The divorce of Great Britain and the EU is the longest. Anyway, the British are smart guys, for they have been the first to realize that it is better to think of marriage once a year than of divorce once a week. And voted for Brexit at the referendum. In the end, if you have been living without a wife for long, you get used to young and beautiful women. Take care of your marriages, gentlemen!
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