No good deed goes unpunished

No good deed goes unpunished. Donald Trump faces the danger of the US economy’s sliding down into recession in 2020, when the US presidential election will be held; and so, he is looking for someone to blame for his failures. Democrats are criticizing for slow wages increase, so, it is the US Department of Labour that is responsible, because its calculation is wrong. The US yield curve is going to invert; it is the Fed that is in charge, as it hikes the federal funds rate. The US dollar is growing stronger; it’s the fault of China and the Eurozone, which manipulate the exchange rates. Everybody is associated with wrongdoings, but for the US president. Just like an angel!

I’ll be up to any dirty trick in order to prove my decency. The US trade wars, with the motto like “You’ve been unfair to America for many years, it is time to retaliate now and make things right” will have a bad impact on the Americans themselves in the end. The first alarming signal is the US trade balance. Its deficit has hit a record high since 2008, and the trade deficit with China has been already higher than an all-time high. And is Trump seriously speaking about the US victory in the trade war with China?! The US president seems to be having a rest by the sea. The see of undone plans, failed dreams and destroyed fantasies.

Import tariffs don’t improve the situation; they are just getting it worse. A decline in Chinese economy’s growth is followed by emerging markets’ collapse, thus driving USD up. US dollar revaluation and strong domestic demand make up a grim cocktail that is pushing imports up. So it turns, that whatever Donald Trump does, everything backfires on him. One should be looking for scapegoats in this situation. If you admit your guilt, your wife will never let you go fishing again. After all, there is one sure way... Catch a fish and stuff it with a gold chain. Bring it home. You will never again have to ask your wife to let you go fishing. She will be sending you there herself.

But still, the markets don’t seem to dislike the US president Trump. Investors are excited by his antics. They are getting antsy and check Donald Trump’s twitter all the time. Somebody even likes Trump. He is obviously the man who doesn’t care about what other people say about him. He thinks highly of himself in any case. However, people say, if they are saying good things behind your back, then you are lying on your front in a coffin. Guys, what impeachment are you talking about? Do you really want the stock market to crash??? The US president has thought the S&P 500 to be the true test of his success. Could he be a real angel? Experience has shown that when someone, elected by people, starts thinking to be chosen by God, there are hard times to come.

The USA is still far from that. It reaps the benefit of fiscal stimulus, enjoys the US GDP growth above the rate of 4% and the US unemployment drop below the record lows over the past five decades. But, when you are up to the Sun, you can burn yourself! The USA is likely to face a completely different situation in 2019-2020 from that in 2018. I even feel a kind of sympathy for Donald Trump. Whatever he does, endlessly rolling a huge boulder up a steep hill, it is still rolling down on him. A Sisyphean task!

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Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

US dollar’s Sisyphean Stone

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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