2012-02-20 11:37:00

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is traded downward on Monday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator started to go down in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and is shaping a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is going up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0755, the pair will go to 1.0740 and 1.0730.

Although market's interest to the risk continues to maintain, the Australian Dollar rate is rather overheat and is being corrected.

Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December against the forecast of growth by 0.2%. According to statistics released earlier, activity index in the manufacturing sector rose by 1.4% in January, up to 51.6 points, as per AI GROUP estimates. Aggregate activity index Aig in the service sector increased to 51.9 points in January (+2.9 points) against growth of 1.3 points a month earlier. The index has been growing for the third month in a row, while major growth in activity is associated with households. Nevertheless, AiG noted in the comments, that revival in the index is evident only in three out of nine components.

Statistics was positive this week: unemployment rate in Australia fell to 5.1% in January against 5.2% in December and the forecast of 5.3%. However, according to RBA deputy head, the rise in unemployment rate is not excluded in the coming months due to external influence. He also noted that the rise in investments and high rate of the national currency have beneficial effect on the economy. Consumer confidence index Westpac increased to 101.1 points in February against the level of 97.1 points in January, which is a good signal.

Statistics released earlier showed that lending in the housing sector of Australia rose by 2.4% in December against the forecast of growth of 1.8%. Statistics supported the currency. Inflation in the country showed zero growth in Q4 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis.