2016-06-28 14:56:31

Review and dynamics
Due to the results of the UK referendum conducted and the decision to leave the EU, commodity markets, including oil market have plummeted.

The price of crude oil Brent fell by $3.7 per barrel, reaching $47.00 (ЕМА50 on the weekly chart).

After the shock, which the world financial markets faced after the referendum, is comparable to the crisis of 2008, with the opening of today’s trading day oil prices are going up.

The price of crude oil Brent exceeded support level of 47.50 (ЕМА50 and the lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).

Our opinion
On the daily and weekly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give sell signals. However, on 4-hour chart the indicators are in favour of the buyers and the price tends to reach the level of 48.70 (ЕМА200).

Consolidation of the price above this level may trigger further growth in the ascending channel to resistance level of 50.00, 50.70 (Fibonacci 61.8% to the decline from $ 65.30 to the lows of 2016 at the level of 27.05).

As an alternative scenario, negative dynamics may resume. If the price goes back below the level of 47.00, the decline may continue to the level of 45.00 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) and support levels of 46.20 can be broken down (Fibonacci 50.0% to the decline from $ 65.30 to the lows of 2016 at the level of 27.05), 45.70 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

Consolidation of the price below the level of 45.00 may trigger further decline to 41.70 (Fibonacci 38.2%) and resumption of the downtrend.

Meanwhile, the situation is not clear, so we recommend to be careful when opening long positions. Based on the fundamental factors it seems that “bearish” positions are preferable.

Support levels: 48.00, 47.50, 47.00, 46.20, 45.70, 45.00, 44.00, 42.50, 41.70 and 41.00.

Resistance levels: 48.70, 50.00, 50.70, 51.00, and 52.00, 52.80.

Trading tips
Sell Stop: 47.80. Stop-Loss: 48.80. Take-Profit: 47.50, 47.00, 46.20, 45.70 and 45.00.
Buy Stop: 49.25. Stop Loss: 48.60. Take-Profit: 50.00, 50.70, 51.00, 52.00 and 52.80.

Support level of 47.50
Support level of 47.50

Indicators give signals to buy
Indicators give signals to buy