2016-07-01 12:52:02

Review and dynamics
The price of crude oil Brent has won back almost all losses sustained last week due to Brexit. Now, the price is in the range between support level of 50.00 (psychologically important level) and 50.70 (Fibonacci 61.8% to the decline from $65.30 to the lows of 2016 at the level of 27.05). Over the week the price has grown by 3.8%, increasing by $2.5 per barrel.

Price is still above support levels 48.70 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 48.10 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 47.00 (ЕМА50 on the weekly chart and the lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 46.20 (Fibonacci 50.0%) and 45.70 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

Our opinion
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic do not give clear signals. On the weekly chart, they give signals to sell, while the indicators on the daily chart recommended to open buy positions.

On 4-hour chart a new range has been formed between the levels of 47.00 and 50.70 with the middle line, which is crossing support level of 48.70 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart).

It is likely that the price will remain in the existing range if new fundamental drivers do not turn up.

Meanwhile, the price is above support level of 48.10. From a technical point of view it is possible that the rise will continue in the ascending channel on the daily chart to resistance level and long-term targets of 54.00, 55.00; the line ЕМА144 is very close to these levels on the weekly chart, as well as the upper line of the ascending channel on the daily chart.

As an alternative scenario the price may go down below the level of 47.00 and continue to decline to the level of 45.00 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart). Consolidation of the price below the level of 45.00 may trigger further decline to the level of 41.70 (Fibonacci 38.2%). The price may go back to the downtrend.

The situation is not clear yet, and in view of the current fundamental factors bearish positions seem to be stronger.

Support levels: 48.00, 47.50, 47.00, 46.20, 45.70, 45.00, 44.00, 42.50, 41.70 and 41.00.

Resistance levels: 48.70, 50.00, 50.70, 51.00, 52.00 and 52.80.

Trading tips
Sell Stop: 49.80. Stop-Loss: 50.30. Take-Profit: 49.00, 48.00, 47.50, 47.00, 46.20, 45.70 and 45.00.
Buy Stop: 50.80. Stop Loss: 49.80. Take-Profit: 51.00, 52.00, 52.80, 53.00 and 54.00.

Range of 47.00 – 50.70 on the chart
Range of 47.00 – 50.70 on the chart

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel