2016-07-07 13:23:21

Review and dynamics
Rating Agency Standard and Poor's has downgraded credit ratings of Australia "AAA" from stable to negative. However, thisnews has hardly affected the Australian dollar. During European session, the pair AUD / USD has won back all losses of the morning, remaining in the ascending channel on the weekly chart with the upper limit near the level of 0.8030 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).

The pair remains above the key support levels of 0.7415 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 0.7430 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200, lower line of the ascending channel on 4-hour chart), 0.7445 (ЕМА50 on the weekly chart and Fibonacci 23.6% to the wave of decline since July 2014).

Uptrend continues since the end of May and up to date, the price has grown by almost 400 points.

The Australian currency is supported by a number of fundamental factors, such as high Australian interest rates (1.75%), the rise in oil prices, adherence of the US Fed to a softer policy than it was planned before, moderate pace of growth of inflation and GDP in Australia. The decrease of investors’ fears, caused by Brexit, also provokes the rise in purchases of risky assets and resumption of growth in commodity prices, which leads to the rise in commodity currencies, including the Australian dollar.

Our opinion
On the daily, 4-hour and weekly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for long positions. The price is going up in the ascending channels on 4-hour chart with the upper limit at the level of 0.7670 and on the weekly chart with the upper limit close to at the level of 0.8030.

As long as the price remains above the levels of 0.7445, 0.7430 and 0.7415, uptrend in the pair AUD/USD will continue.

The nearest targets will be 0.7615 (highs of June and the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart), 0.7720 and 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2%).

In case of the alternative scenario the pair will go down below support level of 0.7415 and continue to decline in the descending channel on the daily chart with the lower limit at the level of 0.7000 and further down to 0.6975, 0.6910 and 0.6835.

Support levels: 0.7500, 0.7445, 0.7430, 0.7415, 0.7380, 0.7290, 0.7260, 0.7200, 0.7140 and 0.7100.

Resistance levels: 0.7545, 0.7600, 0.7615 and 0.7720.

Trading tips
Sell Stop: 0.7480. Stop-Loss: 0.7520. Take-Profit: 0.7400, 0.7380, 0.7300, 0.7260, 0.7200, 0.7140 and 0.7100.
Buy Stop: 0.7545. Stop-Loss: 0.7490. Take-Profit: 0.7615, 0.7720 and 0.7820.

Support levels 0.7415, 0.7430 and 0.7445
Support levels 0.7415, 0.7430 and 0.7445

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel