2016-07-12 13:53:31

Review and dynamics
Since the end of May the pair has grown by 500 points. Despite sharp decline in the pair AUD/USD after the UK referendum, positive dynamics in the pair continues. The price has grown up above the level of 0.7600, which is the level the pair has maintained before Brexit.

The pair AUD/USD has won back all losses remaining in the ascending channel on the weekly chart with the upper limit at the level of 0.8030 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart).

The pair AUD/USD remains above the key support levels of 0.7415 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 0.7445 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200, the lower line of the ascending channel on 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the weekly chart and Fibonacci 23.6% to wave of decline since July 2014), due to support provided by the high interest rate of Australia (1.75%), tendency of the US Fed to soften monetary policy, as well as the decrease in investors’ concerns about consequences of Brexit.

Our opinion
On 4 hour, daily and weekly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for long positions. The price is rising in the ascending channels on 4-hour chart with the upper limit near the level of 0.7700, and on the weekly chart with the upper limit near the level of 0.8030.

The price is above the levels of 0.7445, 0.7415; the rise is likely to continue.

The nearest targets will be at the levels of 0.7700, 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2%). Further targets are 0.8030 and 0.8130.

An alternative scenario proposes that the pair can decline below support level of 0.7415 and continue to go down in the descending channel on the daily chart with the lower limit at the level of 0.7000 and further down to 0.6975, 0.6910 and 0.6835.

Support levels: 0.7615, 0.7500, 0.7445 and 0.7415.

Resistance levels: 0.7700, 0.7720, 0.7800 and 0.7820.

Trading tips
Sell Stop: 0.7530. Stop-Loss: 0.7580. Take-Profit: 0.7500, 0.7445, 0.7400, 0.7380, 0.7300, 0.7260, 0.7200, 0.7140 and 0.7100.
Buy on the market. Stop-Loss: 0.7560. Take-Profit: 0.7700, 0.7720 and 0.7820.

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel

Indicators give signals for long positions
Indicators give signals for long positions