2016-07-13 12:57:15

Review and dynamics
The intervention conducted by SNB, prevented the rise in Franc after the announcement of the referendum results in the UK. The pair has been growing for the fourth consecutive week.

The pair has broken down important levels of 0.9770 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.9820 (Fibonacci 38.2% to the last wave of decline since December 2015 at the level of 1.0300). Now the pair is in the ascending channel on the daily chart with the upper limit close to the level of 1.0000 (psychologically important level and Fibonacci 61.8%).

The upper limit of the range crosses the level of 1.0000. The pair remains in this range since this March.

Lower limit of the range (and lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart) is at the level of 0.9520 (Lows of April and Fibonacci 0%).

Our opinion
It is likely that the pair USD/CHF will rise up to 0.9910 (Fibonacci 50.0%), 0.9950 (high of May) and 1.0000, remaining in the range of 0.9520 and 1.0000.

If the US Fed will indicate possibility of the interest rate hike before the end of this year, the price can break out the upper limit of the range at the level of 1.0000 and continue to rise.

As an alternative scenario the pair can decline below support level of 0.9820 and down to support levels of 0.9770 and 0.9750 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on 4-hour chart). Breakout of support level of 0.9705 (Fibonacci 23.6%) may trigger further decline to 0.9580 and 0.9520.

On the daily, weekly and 4-hour chart the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for long positions.

Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9770, 0.9750, 0.9705, 0.9580 and 0.9520.

Resistance levels: 0.9910, 0.9950 and 1.0000.

Trading tips
Buy Stop: 0.9890. Stop-Loss: 0.9850. Targets: 0.9910, 0.9950 and 1.0000.
Sell Stop: 0.9830. Stop-Loss: 0.9880. Targets: 0.9800, 0.9770, 0.9750, 0.9705, 0.9580 and 0.9520.

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel

Possibility of the correction to the level of 0.9820
Possibility of the correction to the level of 0.9820