2016-07-18 11:20:42

Technical data of the currency pair:

Previous closing: 0.7120; Daily range: 0.7069-0.7155;
Opening: 0.7144; 52- week range: 0.6233-0.7329;
Opening: +8.71%; Change in % for the previous day: -1.21

Analytical review:

  • ​Last week the NZD fell by over 200 points against the USD. At the trading session last Friday the rally in the USD continued and the pair fell by over 1.2%;
  • US statistics released last week showed that core retail sales index rose by 0.7% against the forecast of 0.4%;
  • Consumer price index in New Zealand was 0.4% against expectations of 0.5%;
  • “Commitments of Traders” shows the increase in short positions by 2145 contracts, up to 11110 contracts. 7455 contracts have been placed for long positions;
  • This week statistics will include: number of permits to construct (Tuesday), Fed Philadelphia index of manufacturing activity (Thursday). This data can affect movement direction and volatility in the market.

Summary:

  • Positive US statistics and poor New Zealand’s macro-economic data decrease demand for the NZD. According to “COT” large investors have increased the number of short positions.
  • In the near future the NZD is likely to fall against the USD. It is advisable to open short positions

Trading tips for the currency pair NZD/USD

Key levels:
Support levels: 0.7080, 0.6975 and 0.6900.
Resistance levels: 0.7150 and 0.7240.

Medium-term trading, Н4
Currently, the currency is traded at the support level of 0.7080. After breaking out and testing of this level and in case of the respective confirmation (such as Price Action pattern), we recommend to open short positions. Risk per trade is not more than 2% of the capital. Stop order can be placed slightly above the signal line. Take profit can be placed in parts at the levels of 0.6980, 0.6910 and 0.6840 with the use of trailing stops.

Medium-term trading, Н4
Medium-term trading, Н4

Short-term trading, М15
Currently, the currency is traded in the range of 0.7085-0.7125. We recommend to enter the market after breaking out and testing of this zone. Positions can be opened at the signal line and the nearest support/resistance level. Risk per trade is not more than 3% of the capital. Stop order can be placed slightly above/below the signal line. Take profit can be placed in parts of 50%, 30% and 20% with the use of trailing stops.

Short-term trading, М15
Short-term trading, М15