2016-07-19 11:46:59

Technical data of the currency pair:

Previous closing: 0.7591; Daily range: 0.7505-0.7591;
Opening: 0.7591; 52- week range: 0.6824-0.7836;
Annual revenue: +2.37%; Change in % for the previous day: +0.01.

Analytical review:

  • Over the past few trading sessions the price of the Australian dollar has dropped by 100 points against the USD. At the Asian session the rally in the USD continued. The currency pair fell by 1%;
  • According to the data released by the RBA, the regulator can introduce additional monetary policy easing in the country;
  • The AUD is a commodity currency. The decline in oil prices puts pressure on the AUD. Since the beginning of July the price of crude oil WTI fell by 3.5 USD;
  • “Commitments of Traders” shows the increase in number of short positions by 13993 contracts, up to 43001. 17788 contracts have been opened for long positions;
  • US data on permits to construct will be released today; Fed Philadelphia index of manufacturing activity will become known on Thursday. This data can change dynamics and volatility in the pair.

Summary:

  • Possibility of softer monetary policy, positive US data of last week and decline in oil price decrease demand for the AUD. According to “COT” investors have increased the number of short positions;
  • In the near future the AUD is likely to fall against the USD. It is advisable to open short positions.

Trading tips for the currency pair AUD/USD

Key levels:
Support levels: 0.7470 and 0.7415.
Resistance level: 0.7530 and 0.75850.

Medium-term trading, H1
Currently, the currency is traded at the resistance level of 0.7530. If the price maintains this level and in case of the respective confirmation (such as Price Action pattern), we recommend to open short positions. Risk per trade is not more than 2% of the capital. Stop order can be placed slightly above the signal line. Take profit can be placed in parts at the levels of 0.7475, 0.7420 and 0.7370 with the use of trailing stops.

Medium-term trading, H1
Medium-term trading, H1


Short-term trading, М15
Currently, the currency is traded in the range of 0.7510-0.7535. It is advisable recommend to enter the market after breaking out and testing of this zone. Positions can be opened at the signal line and the nearest support/resistance level. Risk per trade is not more than 3% of the capital. Stop order can be placed slightly above/below the signal line. Take profit can be placed in parts of 50%, 30% and 20% with the use of trailing stops.

Short-term trading, М15
Short-term trading, М15