2016-07-20 12:23:38

Review and dynamics
USD has been growing in the currency market in the past few days.
With the opening of the trading day on Wednesday the prices are under pressure and the pair XAU/USD traded at support level of 1323.00 (Fibonacci 38.2%, EMA144 on 4-hour chart).
Investors had diverted attention from Brexit and switched their attention to macro-economic statistics. Due to the recent positive US statistics, chances of the interest rate increase in the USA before the end of this year getting higher.

Our opinion
On the daily and weekly charts the pair XAU/USD remains in the ascending channel with the upper limit above the level of 1385.00 (highs of 2014) and near the level of 1410.00 (Fibonacci 50% to the wave of decline since October 2012).

However, the lower limit of the ascending channel has not yet broken on 4-hour chart. If the price consolidates below support levels of 1323.00 and 1313.00 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), the pair may continue to decline with the nearest targets of 1300.00 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart and psychologically important level), 1260.00 (ЕМА200 and lower limit of the channels on the daily and weekly charts), 1230.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and 1218.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%).

On the daily chart the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give sell signals, the indicators ion the weekly chart are also reversing towards the short positions.

An alternative scenario suggests that the indicators will give signals to buy and the price will reversed up above the level of 1350.00. The nearest targets will be at the levels of 1385.00 (upper line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart), 1410.00 (Fibonacci 50.0%), 1435.00 (highs of 2013) and 1500.00.

Support levels: 1323.00, 1313.00, 1300.00, 1260.00, 1230.00 and 1218.00.
Resistance levels: 1340.00, 1350.00, 1370.00, 1385.00, 1400.00, 1410.00, 1435.00 and 1500.00.


Trading tips
Buy Stop: 1345.00. Stop-Loss: 1322.00. Targets: 1350.00, 1360.00, 1385.00, 1400.00, 1410.00, 1435.00 and 1500.00.
Sell Stop: 1318.00. Stop-Loss: 1330.00. Targets: 1313.00, 1300.00, 1260.00, 1230.00 and 1218.00.

At support level of 1323.00
At support level of 1323.00

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel