2016-07-21 12:00:46

Review and dynamics
In anticipation of the interest rate decision by the ECB activity in the financial markets is decreasing at the opening of the European session. Trading volumes are low. Despite the rise in the pair EUR/USD at the Asian session, the Euro is still under pressure.
In the beginning of the European session, the pair EUR/USD traded at support level of 1.1025, being in the descending channel on the daily chart with the lower limit close to the level of 1.0750.
After the UK referendum, the pair managed to recover at the beginning of the month reaching resistance level of 1.1175 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the daily chart, ЕМА50 on the weekly chart); however, fundamental factors are in favor of the downtrend in the pair.

Our opinion
On the daily and weekly charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for short positions; the indicator on the monthly are reversing toward the sell positions.
Although on the weekly chart, the EUR / USD remains in the ascending channel, which lower limit crosses the level of 1.0970 and with the upper border at the level of 1.1785 (Fibonacci 38.2% to the last wave of decline from the highs of 2014, EMA144 on the weekly chart), breakdown of the lower limit of the channel and the level of 1.0970 (lows of July) can trigger further decline in the pair EUR/USD.
Today, traders shall be very careful, because volatility is expected to be high around 13:45 and 14:30 (GMT + 2) – when interest rates decision by the ECB will be announced and press conference of the ECB will be held.

The nearest targets in case of the decline are 1.0970, 1.0915, 1.0865 and 1.0800.

Otherwise, the pair EUR/USD will go up to 1.1175. Further rise is unlikely. Euro will remain under pressure until the ECB works out the least painful plan to resolve the situation and the process of separation between the UK and the EU will complete.

Support levels: 1.1025, 1.1000, 1.0970, 1.0915, 1.0865, 1.0800 and 1.0750.
Resistance levels: 1.1100, 1.1130, 1.1175, 1.1200, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1485 and 1.1535.

Trading tips
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 1.1060. Targets: 1.1000, 1.0970, 1.0915, 1.0865 and 1.0800.
Buy Stop: 1.1075. Stop-Loss: 1.1010. Targets: 1.1100, 1.1130, 1.1175 and 1.1200.

Indicators give signals for short positions
Indicators give signals for short positions

In the descending channel
In the descending channel