2016-07-22 13:55:42

Review and dynamics
The pair AUD/USD has reached the 5-week lows. Currently, the pair consolidated at the level of 0.7470 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart and the lower line of the ascending channel on 4-hour chart) near support level of 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6% to the wave of decline since July 2014).
The pair AUD/USD remains above the key support level 0.7415 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the daily chart). However, the difference between the monetary policies of the US Fed and the RBA, continuing decline in oil prices and expectations of the weak inflation data for the second quarter in Australia, which is scheduled for release next week, put pressure on the Australian dollar.

Our opinion
On the hourly and 4-hour charts, the price has broken down the trend limit at the level of moving average line ЕМА200. On the hourly, 4-hour and daily charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for short positions.
It is likely that the pair will continue to decline to support levels of 0.7445 and 0.7415. In case of breakdown of the level of 0.7415 the pair may continue to decline to the levels of 0.7350 (lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart) and 0.7290 (lower line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).
Meanwhile, the price is above the levels of 0.7445 and 0.7415. Upward correction in the pair can continue in the channel on the daily chart with the upper limit at the level of 0.7670 (highs of July). The rise can continue up to 0.7720, 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 0.8030 (ЕМА144 and the upper limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart) and 0.8130 (Fibonacci retracement of 50.0%).

Support levels: 0.7470, 0.7445, 0.7415, 0.7350, 0.7290 and 0.7200.
Resistance levels: 0.7500, 0.7615, 0.7670, 0.7720, 0.7800 and 0.7820.


Trading tips
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 0.7510. Take-Profit: 0.7445, 0.7415, 0.7400, 0.7350, 0.7300, 0.7260, 0.7200 and 0.7140.
Buy Stop: 0.7530. Stop-Loss: 0.7460. Take-Profit: 0.7600, 0.7615, 0.7670, 0.7720 and 0.7820.

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel

Support levels are 0.7445 and 0.7415
Support levels are 0.7445 and 0.7415