2016-07-26 11:49:14

Review and dynamics
With the opening of today's trading session the pair AUDUSD has been growing. Traders are closing short positions on the Australian dollar in anticipation of tomorrow's data on inflation in Australia for Q2.

If case of the negative inflation data, the RBA is likely to lower interest rates at the meeting on 2 August. The decline in the interest rates will trigger the fall in the Australian dollar.

At the moment the pair is traded at the level of 0.7520, after the rebound from support level of 0.7470 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6% to the wave of decline since July 2014) at the beginning of this week.

The pair AUD/USD remains in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts above support levels of 0.7415 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and 0.7445.

Our opinion
Difference in the monetary policies of the US Fed and the RBA and the decline in oil prices put pressure on the AUD. The rise in the pair will not exceed the level of 0.7670.

In case of breakout of support level of 0.7415, the pair will go to the nest support level of 0.7350 (lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart) and further down to 0.7140 (lows of May).

The indicators OsMA and Stochastic do not give clear signals. On the weekly chart the indicators give signals for short positions; while the indicators on 4-hour chart suggest to open buy positions. A lot will depend on inflation data, which will be released tomorrow.

On the other hand, as long as the price remains above the levels of 0.7445 and 0.7415 there is a high probability that upward correction will continue in the channel on the daily chart with the upper limit near the level of 0.7670 (highs of July). In case of the positive statistics on the state of the Australian economy and labour market, the rise may go up to the levels 0.7720, 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 0.8030 (ЕМА144 and the upper limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart), 0.8130 (Fibonacci 50.0%).

Support levels: 0.7500, 0.7470, 0.7445, 0.7415, 0.7350, 0.7290 and 0.7200.
Resistance levels: 0.7615, 0.7670, 0.7720, 0.7800 and 0.7820.

Trading tips
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 0.7540. Take-Profit: 0.7470, 0.7445, 0.7415, 0.7400, 0.7350, 0.7300, 0.7260, 0.7200 and 0.7140.
Buy Stop: 0.7540. Stop-Loss: 0.7490. Take-Profit: 0.7600, 0.7615, 0.7670, 0.7720 and 0.7820.

Support levels are 0.7445 and 0.7415
Support levels are 0.7445 and 0.7415

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel