2016-07-28 15:14:19

Review and dynamics
Following the Fed decision to leave short-term interest rate in the USA at the level of 0.5%, the USD fell in the market and in the pair AUD/USD.

With the opening of today's trading session the pair AUD/USD continued to rise, being above the key support levels of 0.7470 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6% to the wave of decline since July 2014) and 0.7415 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

The pair AUD/USD remains in ascending channel on the daily and weekly charts with the upper limit on the weekly chart near the levels of 0.8030 (ЕМА144 and the upper limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart) and 0.8130 (Fibonacci 50.0%).

Our opinion
The difference in the monetary policies of the US Fed and the RBA and the decline in oil prices put pressure on the Australian dollar. The rise in the pair AUD/USD is unlikely to exceed the levels of 0.7670 (highs of July) and 0.7720 (highs of May and March), which are close to the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart.

If the price goes below support levels of 0.7445 and 0.7415, the pair may continue to decline to support level of 0.7350 (the lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart) or further down below the level of 0.7140 (lows of May).

Alternative scenario suggests that upward correction will continue in the channel on the weekly chart with the upper limit at the level of 0.8030 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart) and the nearest targets of 0.7670, 0.7720 and 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2%).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic do not give clear signals. On the weekly chart they are reversing towards the short positions, while on the daily and 4-hour charts they suggest to open long positions.
Although the pair AUD/USD goes up today, traders shall be careful when opening long positions in view of the coming up meeting of the RBA devoted to the monetary policy of the country (2 August).

Support levels: 0.7500, 0.7470, 0.7445, 0.7415, 0.7350, 0.7290 and 0.7200.
Resistance levels: 0.7615, 0.7670, 0.7720, 0.7800 and 0.7820.


Trading tips
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 0.7560. Take-Profit: 0.7510, 0.7470, 0.7445, 0.7415, 0.7400, 0.7350, 0.7300, 0.7260, 0.7200 and 0.7140.
Buy Stop: 0.7565. Stop-Loss: 0.7520. Take-Profit: 0.7600, 0.7615, 0.7670, 0.7720 and 0.7820.

In the ascending channel to the level of 0.8030
In the ascending channel to the level of 0.8030

Indicators give signals to buy
Indicators give signals to buy