2016-07-29 12:14:58

Review and dynamics
Following sharp rise of the price of gold caused by the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged, the pair XAU/USD has been declining for the second day. The price of gold has not grown even today’s sharp rise in the Yen caused by the decisions adopted by the Bank of Japan, although volatility at the time of publication of the Bank’s decisions exceeded $1 per ounce of gold.

On the daily chart the price is trying to break down the lower limit of the ascending channel near the level of 1333.00.

The pair XAU/USD remains in the ascending channel on the weekly chart, with the upper limit near the levels of 1385.00 (highs of 2014) and 1410.00 (Fibonacci 50% to the wave of decline since October 2012).

Our opinion
On the weekly and 4-hour charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give sell signals.

Today is the last trading day of the month and the price is near the level of 1324.00 (opening price in July and Fibonacci 38.2% to the wave of decline since October 2012).

Breakdown of the levels 1333.00, 1324.00 and 1315.00 (lows of July) may trigger further decline in price with targets of 1264.00 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) and 1240.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

Breakdown of the level of 1218.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%) can cause the reversal of the pair XAU/USD into the downward trend, which began in October 2012.

In case of the alternative scenario, the price can go up above the 1340.00 level and continue to rise in the ascending channels on daily and weekly charts with the long-term targets of 1385.00 (upper line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart), 1410.00 (Fibonacci 50.0%), 1435.00 (highs of 2013) and 1500.00.

Support levels: 1324.00, 1315.00, 1300.00, 1264.00, 1240.00 and 1218.00.
Resistance levels: 1340.00, 1370.00, 1385.00, 1400.00, 1410.00, 1435.00 and 1500.00.


Trading tips
Buy Stop: 1346.00. Stop-Loss: 1322.00. Targets: 1360.00, 1385.00, 1400.00, 1410.00, 1435.00 and 1500.00.
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 1360.00. Targets: 1315.00, 1300.00, 1264.00, 1240.00 and 1218.00.

Indicators give signals to sell
Indicators give signals to sell

The pair is likely to break down the lower line of the channel
The pair is likely to break down the lower line of the channel