2016-08-01 10:45:04

Technical data of the currency pair:

Previous closing: 102.03; Daily range: 102.02-102.69;
Opening: 102.28; 52-week range: 99.08-125.29;
Annual income: -17.40%; Change in % for the previous day: -3.05.

Analytical review:

  • ​Last week the Yen rose by over 400 points against the USD. During trading session last Friday the pair fell by 3%;
  • US statistics released last week showed that GDP in Q2 has grown by 1.2% against the forecast of 2.6%;
  • The Bank of Japan left interest rate unchanged at the level of -0.1%. The regulator announced that the volume of ETF repurchase will be expanded soon and he also confirmed the increase in the monetary base by 80 trillion Yen per year;
  • “Commitments of Traders” shows ambiguous picture. Large investors have decreased the number of long positions by 5416 contracts. Short positions have also been decreased by 1506 contracts;
  • Technical indicators show possibility of the further decline in the pair USD/JPY. In the chart with the timeframe Н4 a strong reversal pattern “head and shoulders” has been formed.зовалась одна из сильнейших разворотных формаций технического анализа – «Голова и плечи».

Summary:

  • Poor US statistics and decisions by the US Fed and the Bank of Japan put strong pressure on the currency pair USD/JPY. According to “COT” large investors do not have general opinion about the Yen;
  • In the near future the Yen may grow against the USD. It is advisable to op[en short positions.

Trading tips for the currency pair USD/JPY

Key levels:
Support levels: 101.40, 100.30 and 99.00.
Resistance levels: 102.75 and 104.60.

Medium-term trading, H4
At the moment, the currency has broken down and consolidated below the local support level of 102.75. If the pair maintains the mirrored resistance level of 102.75 and in case of the respective confirmation (such as Price Action pattern), it is recommended to open short position. Risk per trade is not more than 2% of the capital. Stop order can be placed slightly above the signal line. Take profit can be placed in parts at the levels of 101.45, 100.35 and 99.10 with the use of trailing stop.

Medium-term trading, H4
Medium-term trading, H4

Short-term trading, М15
Currently, the currency is traded in the range of 102.30-102.65. It is advisable to enter the market after breaking out and testing of this zone. Positions can be opened near the signal line and the nearest support/resistance levels. Risk per trade is not more than 3% of capital. Stop order can be placed slightly above/below the signal line. Take profit can be placed in parts at the levels of 50%, 30% and 20% with the use of trailing stop.

Short-term trading, М15
Short-term trading, М15