2016-08-02 12:39:21

Review and dynamics
Weakening in the USD over the past few days caused rapid decline in the pair USD/CHF over the past five trading sessions. The pair has broken important support levels of 0.9910 (Fibonacci 50% to the wave of decline since December 2015 and the level of 1.0300), 0.9820 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 0.9770 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144, ЕМА50 on the daily chart) and 0.9705 (Fibonacci 23.6%). At the moment, the pair is at the support level 0.9635, which is crossed by the lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart.

Our opinion
If the data released this week, prior to Friday's US data on labour market, will be weak, the pair USD/CHF can continue to decline to support levels of 0.9580 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 and the lower limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart) and 0.9520 (lower limit of the range of 0.9950 - 0.9520).

Otherwise, after reaching the level of 0.9635, the price can rebound from the lower line of the channel and go up above the level of 0.9705.

In case of the positive US labor data, which will be released on Friday at 14:30 (GMT+2), the pair USD/CHF will go up, returning to the ascending channel on the daily chart with the upper limit near the level of 0.9950 (the upper limit of the range).

On the daily and 4 hour charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give signals for short positions.

Support levels: 0.9635, 0.9580 and 0.9520.
Resistance levels: 0.9705, 0.9770, 0.9820, 0.9910, 0.9950 and 1.0000.


Trading tips
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 0.9710. Targets: 0.9635, 0.9580 and 0.9520.
Buy Stop: 0.9720. Stop-Loss: 0.9670. Targets: 0.9770, 0.9820, 0.9910 and 0.9950

To support level of 0.9580
To support level of 0.9580

Near the lower line of the channel
Near the lower line of the channel