2016-08-03 13:16:42

Review and dynamics
On weak data on the US GDP for Q2, which was released last Friday, the pair NZD/USD rose up to the level of 0.7240 (Fibonacci 38.2%, upward correction to the decrease in pair from the level of 0.8800, since July 2014). Earlier in July, the pair has reached the level of 0.7300, which is close to the resistance level and the line ЕМА144 on the weekly chart. However, later the pair fell after the statement by Graeme Wheeler, president of the RBNZ, about the necessity of the more monetary policy easing. Since last September the pair NZD/USD has been in ascending channel on the weekly chart from the upper limit near the level of 0.7380 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
With the opening of today's trading day the pair NZD/USD has been rapidly declining. Weak inflation data presented today by New Zealand’s Bureau of statistics give ground that the RBNZ will lower interest rate at the meeting on 10August.

Our opinion
The level of 0.7240 (Fibonacci 38.2%) is the key level. Breakout of this level will determine further movement direction in the pair in the ascending channels on the weekly and daily charts.
This scenario will be feasible case of the negative US labor statistics, which will be released on Friday. However, it is unlikely that the pair will rise above 0.7300.
It is likely that the pair will go down to the lows of July at the level of 0.6975 and continue to fall to support levels of 0.6900 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the daily chart) and 0.6860 (Fibonacci 23.6%). If the pair breaks down the level of 0.6860 the decline may continue further down.
Until Friday the pair NZD/USD will remain below the level of 0.7240. Fundamental factors will prevent significant rise in the pair, but may trigger decline in price in the medium-term.

Support levels: 0.7170, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7075, 0.6975, 0.6900 and 0.6860.
Resistance levels: 0.7240, 0.7290 and 0.7320.

Trading tips
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 0.7260. Take-Profit: 0.7170, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7075, 0.6975, 0.6900 and 0.6860.
Buy Stop: 0.7270. Stop-Loss: 0.7230. Take-Profit: 0.7290, 0.7320 and 0.7400.

In the ascending channel
In the ascending channel

Rebound from the level of 0.7240
Rebound from the level of 0.7240