2016-08-12 12:22:02

Review and dynamics
After the release of the negative data on German GDP and with the opening of today's European session, the pair EUR/USD is traded at the level of 1.1140. On the hourly chart close this support level is close to the line ЕМА144 and the lower line of the ascending channel. Another support level: 1.1120 is just slightly below (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart).

The pair EUR/USD is below resistance levels of 1.1170 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and 1.1190, which is crossed by the limit of the descending channel on the daily chart.

Our opinion
The situation is stringent. A lot will depend on the preliminary GDP of Eurozone for Q2, and the data on industrial production, which will be released at 12:00 (GMT+3), or US data on retail sales and producer price index for July at 15:30 (GMT+3).

Breakout of the level of 1.1170 will trigger the rise up to 1.1190 and 1.1125 or to 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% to the decline from the highs of 2014).

If the pair breaks out of the level of 1.1285, the price may go to 1.1430, 1.1485 and 1.1535. However, it is likely that the rise will not exceed the levels of 1.1252 and 1.1285 after which the pair may decline in the descending channel to support levels of 1.1120, 1.1045 and 1.0975 (the lower line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart and the lows of July), 1.0915 (the lows of June) and 1.0865 to the lower line of the descending channel on the daily chart, near the level of 1.0710.

The indicators OsMA and Stochastic give mixed signals; on 4-hour chart the indicators give signals to sell.

Based on fundamental factors it is expected that the pair EUR/USD will continue to decline.

Support levels: 1.1120, 1.1045, 1.0975, 1.0915, 1.0865, 1.0800 and 1.0750.
Resistance levels: 1.1170, 1.1190, 1.1225, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1485 and 1.1535.

Trading tips
Sell Stop: 1.1110. Stop-Loss: 1.1150. Targets: 1.1045, 1.0975 and 1.0915.
Buy Stop: 1.1180. Stop-Loss: 1.1140. Targets: 1.1190, 1.1225, 1.1285, 1.1300 and 1.1400.

Near the key level of 1.1170
Near the key level of 1.1170

The pair is likely to break down support level of 1.1120
The pair is likely to break down support level of 1.1120